Japan Defence and Security Report Q2 2012 Published : April 2012
No. of Pages : 96
Price:US$1175
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visited Okinawa in late February 2012 amid hopes that a longrunning controversy over the basing of US Marines on the island could finally be nearing a resolution. A plan for US troop relocation had been agreed in a 2006 US-Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation, but it had yet to be implemented and repeated delays have threatened to poison the USJapanese strategic relationship. However, in early February, Tokyo and Washington agreed to alter the terms of the agreement, and to delink the repositioning the US Marines’ Futenma base within Okinawa from the issue of relocating US personnel from Okinawa to Guam.A leaked plan suggested that 4,700 Marines will now move to Guam, fewer than the 8,000 covered by the original deal – though this may have more to do with cost-cutting than with strategy. Meanwhile, the Okinawa government is currently studying an environmental impact assessment of the project to close Futenma and expand Camp Schwab, another existing US facility on the island.Noda’s presence in Okinawa highlighted the importance of the negotiations, and suggested that the sacking of defence minister Yasuo Ichikawa in January would have little impact on the situation’s resolution. Ichikawa, who lasted only three months in the job, was replaced by Naoki Tanaka. Japan’s recent defence procurement decisions highlighted once again that the country cannot afford a serious disagreement with the US over Okinawa or any other issue, such is Tokyo’s dependence on its American allies. In December 2011, the government confirmed that it had selected the Lockheed Martin F35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter to fulfil its F-X fighter aircraft requirement. Japan agreed to buy 42 F35s after rejecting the less advanced – but proven – alternatives, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Eurofighter Typhoon. However, a potential argument with the US could be brewing over this issue as well. Japan secured guarantees from Lockheed Martin that its first four F-35s would be delivered on schedule in 2016 and at the agreed cost. However, by February Tokyo was already signalling its concern about these promises being kept, with the local media quoting officials as saying that Japan would cancel its F35 order if deadlines and cost targets were not met.Another highly significant procurement programme moved forwards in January, as IHI Marine United began construction of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s third helicopter carrier, and its first 22DDH-type carrier. The 22DDH is a bigger ship than the two helicopter carriers already in JMSDF service, and will be the largest in the Japanese fleet. It is expected to enter service in 2014. While the progression of the F-35 and 22DDH programmes are good news for the Japanese defence industry, the best news of all arguably came in December, when the Noda government announced that it would relax the country’s long-standing defence export ban. The new regime aims to enable Japan to coJapan operate with allied nations in weapon system development programmes. The export of arms that could feasibly be used in conflict remains illegal, so the opportunities for Japanese companies to export weaponry will remain limited. However, they should now have a freer hand to participate in major international projects, such as the F-35 programme (though that it now too far advanced for Japanese involvement at the development level). Japanese Defense Industry- Q2 2012 Table Of contents Executive Summary SWOT Analysis Japan Security SWOT Japan Defence Industry SWOT Japan Political SWOT Japan Economic SWOT Japan Business Environment SWOT Global Political Outlook Landmark Political Events Looming In 2012