Nigeria Power Report Q1 2012 Published: February 2012
No. of Pages: 45
Price: US$530
BMI View: Plenty of work is needed if Nigeria is to extend market coverage and boost capacity, which is needed in order to ensure the absence of power shortages. There are numerous opportunities in renewables, but investment prospects are poor. The promise of nuclear over the long-term is likely to be unfulfilled, so Nigeria will likely remain over-dependent on oil, gas and hydro resources. Privatisation progress appears to be gathering momentum, which should help boost capacity. Over-dependence on gas-fired power generation has resulted in supply disruptions during periods of gas shortage. The low level of gas pricing means that producers favour exports, while cheap electricity makes investment in new capacity unattractive. There is a belated focus on solar, wind, geothermal and other forms of renewable supply in order to help with medium-term supply expansion. Key trends and recent developments in the Nigerian electricity market include: • In June 2010, the government revealed that the country will need to spend around US$6bn a year on electricity generation and distribution if it wants to become one of the 20 most industrialised nations in the world by 2020. • During the period 2011-2021, Nigeria’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 7.07%, reaching 48.4TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 8.3% gain in gasfired and a 6.1% rise in hydroelectric generation, offsetting an annual decrease of 0.4% in oilbased electricity supply. • Nigeria has abundant renewable energy resources, led by solar energy, biomass, wind and hydropower, with potential existing for geothermal and tidal power. The current state of renewable power generation use is very low. There is a lack of appropriate policy and regulatory and institutional framework to stimulate demand and attract investors. • Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 7.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.2% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from an estimated 162.5mn in 2011 to 208.9mn in 2021, with net power consumption looks set to increase from 23.1TWh in 2011 to 32.9TWh by 2016, rising further to 46.4TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 7.3%, but is due to slow later in the decade, averaging 7.1% in 20162021. • Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation - growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend - Nigeria is faced with a growing power supply shortfall. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an estimated 9.2% in 2011 will help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 0.6TWh, which could rise to 2.1TWh by 2021. Nigeria Power Industry Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Nigeria Power SWOT .. 7 Global Industry Overview .. 8 Regional Industry Overview .. 12 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 17 Nigeria Snapshot (Macro) ... 17 Nigeria: Economic and Demographic Data .. 17 Nigeria: Power Sector 17 Nigeria Forecast Scenario ... 18 Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 18 Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 18 Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (contd) .. 19
Table: Nigeria Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecastsf ... 20 Table: Nigeria Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (contd) . 21 Electricity Consumption .. 25 Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts .. 25 Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (contd) 25 Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports ... 26 Table: Nigeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 26 Table: Nigeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts (contd) .. 26 Table: Nigeria Trade Data And Forecasts (contd) . 27 Table: Nigeria Trade Data And Forecasts 27 Key Policies/Market Structure ... 28 Regulation and Competition 28 Key Projects Database 29 Table: List of IPPs in Nigeria ... 29 Business Environment 30 Regional Risk/Reward Ratings .. 30 Mea Power Risk/Return Ratings 30 Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Ratings ... 34 Rewards . 34 Risks . 34 Competitive Landscape ... 35 Glossary of Terms .. 38 Table: Glossary of Terms 38 Methodology And Sources 39 Industry Forecasts 39 Power Industry - Data Methodology ... 40 Generation and Consumption Data 40 Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 41 Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 42 Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 44 Sources .. 45