Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012 Published : March 2012
No. of Pages : 59
Price:US$1175
BMI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream segment, with new gas finds capable of improving energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, ultimate volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with Russian gas set to dominate imports for the foreseeable future. The main trends and developments we highlight for Slovenia’s Oil and Gas sector are: 1. Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well have indicated the potential for high gas productivity. The company is hoping to ascertain the commerciality of the project and hopes further testing at Pg-11A will outline flow potential. 2.Gas demand is expected to have almost reached 1.55bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2016, with domestic production estimated at little more than 0.1bcm, resulting in an import requirement of around 1.45bcm.The Ascent discovery at Petisovci-Lovaszi is currently the only incremental source of gas output in Slovenia that could be commercialised. 3.Oil consumption is expected to track the underlying GDP trend, with demand keeping pace with economic growth. A lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in oil use is unlikely until much later in the decade. Our projections suggest oil consumption will reach 77,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, met entirely by imports. 4.The oil import bill for 2011 is estimated to have been US$2.57bn, rising slightly to US$2.64bn in 2016. However, given the absence of domestic refining capacity, Slovenia is now largely importing refined products, so the oil import bill later in the decade is expected to exceed US$3.00bn. The gas import bill by 2016 could be as high as US$711mn, subject to Ascent’s domestic supply efforts. Taking into account the likely cost of refined products imports, the total petroleum bill by 2016 could be US$3.34bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%. Slovenia Oil and Gas Industry Table of Content BMI Industry View 5 SWOT Analysis . 6 Slovenia Oil and Gas SWOT .. 6 Global Energy Market Outlook 7 Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9) 8 Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 10 Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 11 Table: Slovenia Oil & Gas – Forecasts And Historical Data, 2009-2016 ... 17 Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ... 26 Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 28 Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings ... 30 Competitive Landscape . 32 Executive Summary ... 32 Table: Key Players: Slovenia Oil And Gas Sector ... 32 Government Policy .. 33