The 2020 Epsom Derby Preview

The 2020 Epsom Derby An attempt at an in-depth analysis of the 2020 Epsom Derby, by someone who only knows a bit about horses.

Amhran Na Bhfiann

1

b c Galileo – Alluring Park (Green Desert) T: A P O’Brien 50/1 J: 0-4

Amhran Na Bhfiann stepped up on a poor debut effort when finishing 4th in a Leapordstown maiden on the 9th June, behind the Irish Derby 2nd, 3rd and 4th. That form entitles him to a shot at the English equivalent, as the winner, Santiago, had previously impressively won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Interestingly, he is a full brother to Was, a shock 20/1 winner of the Epsom Oaks in 2012. All relatives aside from an underwhelming one trained in France have found the step up to 1m4f to suit and Amhran Na Bhfiann should similarly improve again for this trip. He has to improve, though.

Armory b c Galileo – After (Danehill Dancer)

2

1232-4 25/1

T: J:

A P O’Brien

Armory brings a high level of form to the table, with his slightly troubled 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas behind Siskin looking like a very satisfactory return to action. Concerningly he has been undone by better horses as a juvenile, including Victor Ludorum, Alson and Pinatubo. However, he won’t face any of those speedier types in the Derby and he’s certainly expected to improve for the step up in trip given how he keeps on at the end of his races. However, his trainer has told The Guardian that he may yet be diverted to France, and that would certainly seem an easier option for him to gain a first Group One success.

Emissary

3

b c Kingman – Soviet Moon (Sadler’s Wells) T: Hugo Palmer 33/1 J: Jim Crowley 1-2

Emissary is an interesting unexposed runner, who is certainly bred to be a Derby winner. Out of Soviet Moon, he’s a half-brother to Workforce, the 7L winner of the 2010 Derby. He ran to a comfortable level on debut at Wolverhampton, beating Glenties, a tough experienced horse of Mark Johnston’s and they were clear of the field. He stepped up to listed company at Goodwood and that ended up being quite a pleasing effort, as he was settled a few lengths off a fairly sedate pace, and ended up beaten a neck by Khalifa Sat. He looks like he’ll improve from that run and it would be foolish to write him off. He needs to improve, though.

English King b c Camelot – Platonic (Zafonic)

4

71-1

T: 5/2f J:

Ed Walker Frankie Dettori

English King couldn’t have been more impressive when beating Berkshire Rocco in the Lingfield Derby Trial. With stamina proven, balance and acceleration shown in tremendous fashion and Frankie Dettori booked, it’s easy to understand why he’s the runaway favourite. Berkshire Rocco boosted the Lingfield form massively when 2nd to Santiago in the Queen’s Vase, and he gave that horse much more to think about. Santiago then went on to win the Irish Derby, boosting the form even further. The only concern would be if someone moving up in trip can improve past him, but he looks as strong as a favourite for the Derby could be.

Gold Maze b c Golden Horn – Astonishing (Galileo)

5

53-26

50/1

T: J:

Jessica Harrington

The only maiden in the race, Gold Maze looks to have it all to do to break his maiden in here. He was beaten 11 lengths in the Irish Derby behind Santiago with little excuse to be put any closer. His price on the Betfair Exchange at the time of writing is in the many hundreds to one and that suggests his chance of running here would be slim to none, which is understandable as the Irish Derby was clearly his preferred route. If he does back up quickly though, he can be keen in his racing and may pester any potential frontrunners in this race and that could ensure at worst a solid pace for the race – no repeats of Sovereign in the Irish Derby last year.

Highland Chief

6

b c Gleneagles – Pink Symphony (Montjeu) T: Paul & Oliver Cole 136-1 16/1 J: Ben Curtis

Highland Chief risks being an underrated horse in this field, given his rather unheralded connections and background. However, it’d be foolish to underestimate him in this field. He finished 3rd in the Chesham to Pinatubo, and he would’ve surely gotten closer given a better trip that day. He returned this season to win 1m2f handicap at Royal Ascot in good fashion, off of the top weight. That was a big performance, especially coming off a layoff, and cemented his credentials to be a top horse for connections. There’s stamina on his dam’s side, and given his run at Ascot, it looks like it’s come through. The extra 2 furlongs should therefore suit and he’s got a very underrated jockey on board in Ben Curtis. He’s got a chance.

Kameko

7

bb c Kitten’s Joy – Sweeter Still (Rock of Gibraltar) T: Andrew Balding 1221-1 9/2 J: Oisin Murphy

Connections had a go with the ill-fated Roaring Lion two years ago, and today return with Kameko, who looks a very similar type. Simon Rowlands does some interesting work on stride (linked on the final page) and he suggests that Kameko may struggle with the step up in trip to 1m4f, much like Roaring Lion. His stamina won him the Guineas, but the Royal Ascot run of the 2nd and 3rd suggests stamina really wasn’t their strong point, and plenty of these horses are going to have stamina in abundance. However, it’s foolish to write off a talented horse but I wouldn’t take 9/2 about him staying the trip, let alone winning. 1m2f may prove his optimum.

Khalifa Sat b c Free Eagle – Thermopylae (Tenby)

8

61-1

T: 33/1 J:

Andrew Balding Tom Marquand

He stepped up significantly in form when landing the Cocked Hat at Goodwood, beating Emissary by a neck. He got to set his own pace that day, and only just got away with it as Emissary took time to get into stride on only his second start and his first start on turf. That run suggests that Emissary is definitely the horse to take from that run. One positive for Khalifa Sat is that he has one of the best jockeys in the game on board in Tom Marquand – who was kicked off the favourite in favour of Frankie Dettori. He’ll be desperate to show Bjorn Nielsen what he’s missed out on and he’s certainly the character to channel that energy well. However, you need a horse who’s good enough first and Khalifa Sat needs to step up again.

Max Vega

9

ch c Lope De Vega – Paraphernalia (Dalakhani) T: Ralph Beckett 211-5 50/1 J: Harry Bentley

Max Vega was almost definitely not ready for his comeback at Kempton, and he was outpaced in the key stages. As a two year old, he’d readily seen off Berkshire Rocco in Zetland in much similar style as English King. On that Zetland run, he’s almost certainly going to stay 1m4f around Epsom, despite rather mixed signals from his pedigree – with Lope De Vega not guaranteeing stamina, and more miler signals from the dam. However, he is a half-brother to Camphor who stays 1m4f very well for Jessica Harrington. He looks a good type for Epsom and if he puts that Kempton run well behind him, he’s got every chance of outrunning his big odds.

Mogul b c Galileo – Shayste (Danehill)

10

2114-4

7/1

T: J:

A P O’Brien

Mogul comes into the Derby with a huge reputation, but little substance. His best form comes with a fairly unimpressive 1 length win against Sinawann, who was midfield in the Irish 2000 Guineas and he’s been beaten 3 lengths by Kameko already over a mile. The step up to 1m4f looked to be the ticket for the brother of last year’s Derby 3rd Japan, but he was stuffed at odds-on by Pyledriver at Royal Ascot. However, that day he raced wide, and was much less ready than Pyledriver. His trainer thinks he’s come on significantly for that run, so it’s stupid to write him off and I would be shocked if he doesn’t run much better today. However, he has to step up significantly on his form so far and there’s others with better claims.

Mohican Heights

11

ch c Australia – Mohican Princess (Shirley Heights) T: David Simcock 25/1 J: Andrea Atzeni 11-3

Mohican Heights returned with a solid third at Royal Ascot, behind Pyledriver and ahead of Mogul. That was a solid comeback, and I’d be inclined to mark it up just as much as Mogul. He was badly outpaced before staying on stoutly to claim 3rd after following Mogul wide. The 2nd that day, Arthur’s Kingdom, has since let the form down with a poor run in the Irish Derby. He was on the floor leaving the stalls that day though but it’s hard not to be disappointed by that form. Similarly to Mogul, he’s got a lot to do to improve to trouble the form horses in this race and he could find himself needing more.

Mythical b c Camelot – Inchmina (Cape Cross)

12

6143-5 40/1

T: J:

A P O’Brien

He was found to be lame on his comeback, where he finished a very disappointing 5th of 6 – so a line can be put firmly through that run and his 2yo form hardly sets the world alight given hindsight. He was beat fair and square in the Zetland, and his 3rd in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud has had it’s form let down time and again by both the winner Mkfancy and the 2nd Arthur’s Kingdom. He does step up to 1m4f for the first time today though, and that might help him find a bit more improvement. He’s by Camelot, which is a positive for stamina. That said, the way he races doesn’t scream like he’ll improve enough for this step-up in trip and he’s one of the weakest of the Ballydoyle contingent.

Pyledriver b c Harbour Watch – La Pyle (Le Havre)

13

417-21 16/1

T: J:

William Muir Martin Dwyer

Pyledriver is a fantastic story. He’s by Harbour Watch, who was unbeaten over 6f as a 2yo before being retired to stud. None of his progeny tend to stay well, yet Pyledriver has found himself with proven stamina for the 1m4f trip from his Dam’s side. He picked up incredibly well at Royal Ascot when beating the reopposing Mohican Heights and Mogul quite convincingly. He can’t be discounted and while he has to find more to win the Derby, he’s clearly got the talent to run a massive race. He’ll be suited by a strong pace and Epsom could suit him. He’s versatile enough.

Russian Emperor

14

b c Galileo – Atlantic Jewel (Fastnet Rock) T: A P O’Brien 312-1 13/2 J:

Russian Emperor took his time to get going at Royal Ascot, but he eventually did and beat First Reciever and Berlin Tango comfortably.

On that form, he looks like he’s going to be Ballydoyle’s first string and best chance of retaining the crown here. The way he races suggests the step up to 1m4f is not only going to suit him but is necessary if he’s to get to the next level. Simon Rowlands’ is keen on him in his stride analysis, with his striding pattern suggesting he will get 12f comfortably and that inspires more confidence for the Ballydoyle lads that despite the market’s apparent favouring of a couple of others, they’ve got a strong chance at retaining their crown. He certainly seems overpriced.

Serpentine

15

ch c Galileo – Remember When (Danehill Dancer) T: A P O’Brien 25/1 J: 0-51

He improved massively over the winter, and ran a good race behind Galileo Chrome before bolting up over 1m2f by 9 lengths, quite easily. He’s a full brother to types who stay 1m4f well, including Beacon Rock who was 2nd in the King Edward VII in 2016 at Royal Ascot. He’s very unexposed, and looks likely to be one of the pacesetters for Ballydoyle. Make no mistake, despite limited evidence, he’s here on merit and it seems like they’ve always expected him to do something decent. He’ll be backing up very quickly after his maiden win and whether it comes a bit too soon or is a step too far remains to be seen, though.

Vatican City

16

ch c Galileo – You’resothrilling (Storm Cat) T: A P O’Brien 8/1 J: 51-2

2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas, Vatican City is a very interesting, lightly-raced contender for Aiden O’Brien and Ballydoyle. He’s a full brother to the likes of Gleneagles and Happily, who were fantastic milers for the team. That makes his stamina for 1m4f a bit of a concern. Simon Rowlands’ suggests in his stride analysis piece that Vatican City is likely to be suited by another half mile, but it’s a long way especially with a decent pace against horses like English King and Russian Emperor who are certain to relish 1m4f. In the betting he’d be Ballydoyle’s 3rd string but I wouldn’t have him as high as this.

Worthily b c Point Of Entry – Vignette (Diesis)

17

1

40/1

T: J:

John Gosden Martin Harley

The master trainer John Gosden is represented by Worthily this year, an interesting once-raced horse who readily won a Newbury maiden earlier in June. That was a good performance, but it’s a significant step up to suggest he’s going to be ready to run in the Derby. The stamina is assured on his damside and his debut at Newbury did suggest that 1m4f is probably going to be a minimum for him let alone a question mark, but this looks a step too far a step too soon against horses like English King.

Summary It’s a typically interesting derby, with Aiden O’Brien well represented and multiple interesting horses at big prices who have potential to go well. The two I am going to side with are Russian Emperor and Max Vega. They both bring solid levels of form to the table, and are sure to be suited by the 1m4f trip. Compared to those such as Kameko and Vatican City, who may not stay, they look like good value at the current prices. English King will be tough to beat, and he sets the standard high, but the favourite is rarely unbeatable and he’s already short enough at 5/2.

Simon Rowland’s Stride Analysis https://www.stallionguide.com/news/posts/2020/new/russianemperor-and-ennistymon-could-step-up/