CyRiM Report 2019
Shen attack Cyber risk in Asia Pacific ports
−
−
−
− −
− − − − −
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
Direct
Telecommunications
Indirect
IT - Services Finance - Investment Management Finance - Insurance Finance - Banking Healthcare IT - Software Mining & Primary Industries Education Energy Utilities Food & Agriculture Tourism & Hospitality Entertainment & Media IT - Hardware Defence / Military Contractor Pharmaceuticals Real Estate / Property / Construction Business & Professional Services Manufacturing Retail Transportation / Aviation / Aerospace $-
−
− −
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
−
−
$26,871 $623
$266 $52
$19
$14
$12
$6
$5 $0.1
Asia
EU
North America
Oceania
Central America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
South America
The Caribbean
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− • • − • • − • • − • • − • •
CyRiM Report 2019
Introduction to the scenario
蜃
CyRiM Report 2019
Shen attack scenario narrative
Cumulative recovery distributions 100% 90% 80%
Percent recovered
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0
1
2
Fastest Recovery
3 4 Days Shutdown Average Recovery
5
Slowest Recovery
6
7
CyRiM Report 2019
Scenario variants
CyRiM Report 2019
Sectorial impacts
IT - Services
$0.7
Telecommunications
$0.7
Finance - Investment Management
$0.8
Finance - Insurance
$0.8
Finance - Banking
$0.8
Healthcare
$1.1
Mining & Primary Industries
$1.1
Education
$1.1
Utilities
$1.5
Entertainment & Media
$1.7
Tourism & Hospitality
$1.8
IT - Software
$1.8
Energy
$2.0
Food & Agriculture
$2.0
Defence / Military Contractor IT - Hardware
$2.7 $4.0
Business & Professional Services
$4.7
Pharmaceuticals
$4.8
Real Estate / Property / Construction Retail Manufacturing Transportation / Aviation / Aerospace
$5.5 $18.5 $23.6 $28.2
94%
China
92%
Japan
89%
Korea
83%
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China
81%
Philippines
76%
Singapore
67%
Malaysia
61%
India
S1
S2
X1
861
1,375
3,650
CyRiM Report 2019
Global and regional economic losses
Direct
Telecommunications
Indirect IT - Services Finance - Investment Management Finance - Insurance Finance - Banking Healthcare IT - Software Mining & Primary Industries Education Energy Utilities Food & Agriculture Tourism & Hospitality Entertainment & Media IT - Hardware Defence / Military Contractor Pharmaceuticals Real Estate / Property / Construction Business & Professional Services Manufacturing Retail Transportation / Aviation / Aerospace $-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
23%
24%
4%
6%
4%
6%
3%
4%
24%
27%
38%
4% 6%
11% 18%
3% 2%
17% 18%
15%
12%
21% 24%
14% 24%
45%
29%
28% 24%
Japan
20%
Malaysia
Singapore
Korea
Transportation / Aviation / Aerospace
Manufacturing
Retail
Real Estate / Property / Construction
Pharmaceuticals
Other
China
$26,871 $623
$266 $52
$19
$14
$12
$6
$5 $0.1
Asia
EU
North America
Oceania
Central America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
South America
The Caribbean
CyRiM Report 2019
Insurance loss estimations
− − −
−
−
−
CyRiM Report 2019
Conclusions
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𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 = (𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑇𝐸𝑈 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 ÷ 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠) × $500 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 = (𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑇𝐸𝑈 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 × $1 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑇𝐸𝑈) + $10,000,000
𝐶𝑦𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝐷𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑜𝑓𝑡𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐿𝑜𝑠𝑠 = (𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑇𝐸𝑈 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 ÷ 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠) × 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝐶𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 × $50 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑇𝐸𝑈
− •
𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑜 = ((𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑇𝐸𝑈 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 ÷ 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠) × 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑜 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 (%)) × 75% × # 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝐶𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 × 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑇𝐸𝑈 ($)
− •
− • •
− • − • • − •
− • • − •
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CyRiM Report 2019