REAL AND ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF UNIVERSAL PRE-KINDERGARTEN EXPANSION

operation were mentioned within focus groups as key reasons why some parents will keep their children with private child care providers.

While some survey respondents and focus group and site visit participants believe the quality of their private programs will reduce the impact of FWISD universal pre-k, a study completed by Elizabeth Cascio and Diane Whitmore found that among college educated mothers, the offer of free preschool education resulted in a shift from private schools to public schools. The authors estimate that for children of college-educated mothers, about half of the 4-year-olds enrolled in a public pre-k program would come from private preschools, suggesting that crowd-out of private preschools is clearly an unintended consequence. The study also found that mothers with less education and income are more likely to enroll their 4-year-olds in pre-k if it is free. While this might introduce some additional children into the child care market, most 4-yearolds that would not otherwise be in pre-k would be coming from child care providers not offering curriculum-based pre-k, and thus potentially crowd out these providers as well.64

Real and Anticipated Impact of Universal Pre-Kindergarten Expansion

Table 7. Pre-K Impact Scale

Providers were asked to report the experienced or expected impact a Impact Scale reduction or loss of 4-year-old full-day enrollment would have on their No Impact 0 program in three key areas: Costs, Quality, and Financial Stability. Using Slight Impact 1 a 4-level Impact Scale from “No Impact” to “Strong Impact,” providers Moderate Impact 2 Strong Impact 3report statistically significant overall moderate impact on the costs and financial stability of their programs. Though few providers report real or potential impact in program quality, comments and the likelihood of possible impact-reduction actions indicate quality will be affected. Provider responses are summarized in the following table and illustrated in Table 8 below with statistically significant impact areas are shown in bold. Statistically significant impact here (as show by binomial probability less than .01) implies that the level of impact reported is greater than would be expected to happen by chance.

Table 8. Anticipated Impacts of Reduced Pre-K Enrollment: Licensed Child Care Centers

Impact Area

Total Responses Average Impact Rating Average Statistical Significance

Overall Costs

39 Moderate Impact 2.33 0.00

Program Quality 39 Slight Impact 1.49 -

Financial Stability 40 Moderate Impact 2.3 0.00

While the impact questions allowed hypothetical responses, 79% (50) of survey respondents already experienced some enrollment loss as a result of FWISD pre-k, and thus their responses reflect actual experience. Child care centers’ and home-based providers’ responses in these areas vary greatly from one another, and as such they are discussed separately in the following