2023 Annual Market Report Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ■ Greater Carmel ■ Carmel Valley ■ Pebble Beach Carmel Highlands Big Sur & South Coast ■ Pacific Grove ■ Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Q4 2023 Significant Sales by Courtney Jones Prime Opportunity in the Heart of Del Monte Forest
1407 Cantera Court, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $3,600,000 Represented Seller
924 W. Carmel Valley Road, Carmel Valley ■ SP: $2,550,000 Represented Buyer
22294 Capote Drive, Salinas ■ SP: $1,200,000 Represented Buyer
Happy New Year! 2023 was a mixed year for our market. Carmel-by-the-Sea was the only area with a higher sales volume when compared to a year ago. The average sales price topped $4M last quarter in this quaint one square mile village—just about double the average sales price in 2007, the year I began my real estate career. That’s some crazy appreciation over 16 years! Despite the gain in value, marketing periods doubled in Carmel-by-the-Sea and are up 37% across the Monterey Peninsula. Overall, our market is trending closer to the levels we saw in 2019—and interest rates were much more attractive back then! The national average for a 30-year fixed is now 6.6% and we’re expecting one or two cuts in rates this year. We’re optimistic that if rates dip into the 5–6% range, we’ll see an increase in activity. That would be good news, especially for areas like greater Carmel that saw a 42% decrease in sales volume for the year. While Pebble Beach is not affected by interest rates as much as other areas, this market saw the high end fall off with only 5 sales over $10M for the year, compared to 13 in 2022. Not surprisingly, the lower end and the higher end markets struggled the most last year, while the $2–5M remained fairly steady. Compared to the nationwide real estate market which is down about 30% from last year, the Monterey Peninsula faired well. With an election year ahead, we will definitely be in for some uncertainty but I remain optimistic (It’s my nature, anyway!). I expect to see an increase in inventory, lower rates and continued demand. All of which will equate to a strong market. Most importantly, I wish you and yours a healthy and happy 2024. All my best,
Courtney Jones
Courtney Jones 831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com REALTOR® DRE#01806907
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2023 Annual Market Report
2023 Annual Market Report
Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s
Get in-depth market updates for key areas across the Monterey Peninsula.
02
Market Overview
03
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
05
Greater Carmel
07
Carmel Valley
09
Pebble Beach
11
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
13
Pacific Grove
15
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
2023 Annual Statistics Market Update Market Update
Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point & Carmel Point Carmel-by-the-Sea had its second best quarter of the year in Q4neinendem. termsEs ofellictor total sales average sale Usanditia sitat (28), andendam et quae price ($4.0M), and total salesmustenis volume rerat ($112.5M). e omnimendamus il ium sapieni pera et Th utes corerem nimus et, testrum faccusandus. number of sales in the area for the quarter dipped from the verydoloris strongsus Q3,natem lowering 44 to 28 sales. Tate nonsequi debisfrom mos earcipsapid quia volumsales que sitopped acestem unt quos volor mo ma veliquamthe haFour $10M in Q4 of 2023, including rum re ne laut accus alic tentis eosended a simpos apiet eumRealty fuga. Happy Landing Estate, double by Carmel Ut quiae simincit aut omniantiis dem rerehenem ipit quat Company and sister-brokerage Monterey Coast Realtyil ipsum re ni optatur, con necabore magnatur, niae. Omnim agents, and a sale on San Antonio & 12th, whose buyer debit et occum quidel ius ma diorepeliat vendio enest, con was byqui Carmel and Monterey Coast core brought voloratiam officiisRealty dolupiet lignate nisquas quam, Realty. a solid Q4, Carmel-by-the-Sea corendaeWith magniet officimos mi, que occat minus,topped ommoits 2022 number volorest in total eictian sales volume is was cone omnitem destem.by At8.3%. officieTh nditiore quassita dolorestio volorrovide sitiur the onlyidelit area quiam, on the cuptatati Monterey Peninsula that raised its as as expeles ratiasperis eaquo 2022 sales volume total.
Average Selling Price
$3,842,104 % 9.2 versus 2022
Days on Market
50
% 85.2 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$445,684,057 % 8.3 versus 2022
Units Sold
116
% 0.9 versus 2022
03 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
homes
homes
homes
homes homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $1m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Carmel-by-the-Sea’s one-square mile village is as unique in charm as it is in fun facts. No high heels law, no street addresses, Clint Eastwood was once mayor, and Doris Day helped make Carmel dog heaven on Earth. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
2023 Annual Statistics Market Update
Greater Carmel
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point The Greater Carmel area finished off a difficult 2023 with another down quarter. Just 11 sales in the area over the last three months of the year was the lowest of any quarter in 2023, with the strongest quarter experiencing just 13 sales. This area typically sees between 20-25 sales per quarter. With low inventory, as just 12 homes remain on the market to end the year, prices remain high in Carmel with the average sale price in Q4 coming in at its third highest mark on record at $2.25M. Total sales volume for the year ($96.6M) failed to reach $100M for the first time since 2012. Carmel is an area that is always in demand and with the hope for new inventory in 2024, we expect to see an improved year ahead.
Average Selling Price
$1,973,770 % 13.2 versus 2022
Days on Market
48
% 77.8 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$96,635,980 % 41.8 versus 2022
Units Sold
49
% 32.9 versus 2022 05 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment home
in millions
home
homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $1m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Point Lobos State Reserve near Carmel hosts a geologic wonder: rocks of four “ages” can be found there, including the unusual Carmel formation dating back to the Paleocene age (over 60 million years old). “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
2023 Annual Statistics Market Update
Carmel Valley Including The Santa Lucia Preserve
After good sales numbers in Q2 (53 sales) and Q3 (43 sales), Carmel Valley saw its number of sales fall to just 33 in Q4, the lowest total in the area since Q1 2019. Typically, in this area we see home sales in the low fifties in an average quarter. With high demand and a low number of sales, average sale price came in at its second highest on record, topping $2M. This high average was assisted by seven sales (21%) topping $3M during the quarter. Total sales volume for the year ($294M) came in below the previous three years, but still held well above 2019 and every year prior.
Average Selling Price
$1,749,735 % 8.1 versus 2022
Days on Market
49
% 40.0 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$293,955,524 % 18.8 versus 2022
Units Sold
168
% 11.6 versus 2022
07 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
home
homes
homes
homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $1m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2
2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Monterey County is the largest grower of Chardonnay in the United States and the largest grower of Pinot Noir in California. Monterey County has 349 vineyards, 82 bonded wineries and 65 tasting rooms. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Pebble Beach Pebble Beach saw 16 sales during Q4 of 2023, matching its Q3 total, and marking three straight quarters under 20 sales. A normal quarter in Pebble Beach sees over 30 home sales. Typically known for its high-priced sales, Pebble Beach saw zero home sales over $10M in Q4 and just one sale over $5.5M. Over the course of the year, just five sales over $10M occurred in the area, compared to 13 of such sales closing in both 2022 and 2021 (and seven of these 26 sales topping $20M). Carmel Realty Company represented seven of the ten sides on the five high-dollar sales, including the double-ending of the top sale of the year. With the lack of high-priced sales, the Pebble Beach average sale price came in under $3.6M for Q4, the lowest since Q4 of 2020. Six homes over $10M remain on the market moving into 2024, awaiting highpriced buyers to return to the area.
2023 Annual Statistics
Average Selling Price
$3,613,327 % 36.2 versus 2022
Days on Market
50
% 19.0 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$270,999,500 % 49.1 versus 2022
Units Sold
75
% 20.2 versus 2022 09 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
homes
homes
homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $1m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Lone Cypress tree, located on 17-Mile Drive in Pebble Beach, is a scenic landmark for the Peninsula and is nearly 300 years old. Monterey Cypress trees are a species native only to this region and can live up to 4,000 years. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
2023 Annual Statistics Market Update
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast Three sales in the quarter in the area were comprised of two sales near Yankee Point in the Carmel Highlands and one small cabin down the Big Sur Coast. These three sales and their cumulative $6.9M in sales volume for the quarter was the lowest of any quarter since 2019. Although this is an area that has sporadic sales, just three sales over $5M took place in 2023, after 11 such sales last year, 14 in 2021, and 12 in 2020. Similar to Pebble Beach, the Carmel Highlands and Big Sur are waiting for high-priced sales to return in 2024.
Average Selling Price
$4,018,737 % 15.1 versus 2022
Days on Market
77
% 1.3 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$76,356,000 % 52.6 versus 2022
Units Sold
19
% 44.1 versus 2022 11 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
home
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $1m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Bixby Bridge in Big Sur was built by prisoners eager to earn “good time” off their prison sentences. It is one of the world’s highest single-span bridges at 714 feet long by 260 feet high. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
2023 Annual Statistics Market Update
Pacific Grove Pacific Grove was the sole area on the peninsula that had its strongest quarter of 2023 during Q4. The area saw 36 sales during the quarter and totaled $62.8M in sales volume, both highs for the year. Average sale price remained strong during the quarter at $1.7M, which met the yearly average. With the strong Q4, Pacific Grove saw total sales volume for 2023 come in just 7.1% below 2022, the second best of any area on the Monterey Peninsula.
Average Selling Price
$1,695,217 % 9.5 versus 2022
Days on Market
34
% 70.0 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$216,987,797 % 7.1 versus 2022
Units Sold
128
% 15.2 versus 2022 13 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
homes
homes
homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $800k $800k-$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$2m–$3m
$3m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Monarch Butterfly Sanctuary in Pacific Grove is one of the largest monarch overwintering sites in America. The monarchs arrive in October after a 2,000-mile migration and overwinter until February. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks Monterey followed suit of several other areas on the peninsula during Q4, with a low number of sales and high average sale price. The number of sales in Q4 came in at 44, the second lowest in a quarter over the last four years. The average sale price climbed to a record high, topping $1.4M for the first time. Just 28 homes remain on the market at the end of the year, which is down 12.5% year over year and 46.2% from just 3 months prior. With average days to sell coming in at just 33 days, demand remains strong, assisting the high prices in the area. 2023 as a whole saw 204 home sales in the Monterey area. This was the lowest total since 2009. Total sales volume also saw its lowest value ($255M) since 2016 and was down 22.7% year-over-year. Average sales price for the year came in equal to the record high in Monterey during 2022 at $1.25M.
2023 Annual Statistics
Average Selling Price
$1,249,310 no change versus 2022
Days on Market
29
% 7.4 versus 2022
Sales Volume
$254,859,206 % 22.7 versus 2022
Units Sold
204
% 22.7 versus 2022 15 2023 Annual Market Report
Q4 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
homes
homes
homes
homes
homes
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Average
in millions
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
Q4 2023 < $800k $800k-$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q3 2023
Q4
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$2m–$3m
$3m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary covers 5,312 square miles. This is one and a half times the size of the largest national park in the continental U.S. At its center is a submarine canyon twice as deep as the Grand Canyon. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Authentic Market Leaders & True Industry Experts As the market leading luxury brokerage, for over 100 years we have consistently delivered outstanding quality and service to our clients. Our handpicked team of agents share our commitment to quality, integrity, and the community. Unmatched experience, local knowledge, and collaboration has allowed our team to achieve the highest average agent production in the market year after year. When you work with Carmel Realty Company, you can take comfort in knowing you are working with an authentic expert in Monterey Peninsula real estate.
Best Real Estate Company
Herald Readers’ Choice 2018-2022, Monterey Weekly 2019-2022, Golden Pine Cone 2011-2015, & 2017-2022
Courtney Jones 831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com REALTOR® DRE#01806907
Since 1913 | A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years CarmelRealtyCompany.com ■ 831.622.1000 ■ info@CarmelRealtyCompany.com ■ Dolores Street between 7th & 8th, Carmel-by-the-Sea