Q3 2023 Market Report Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ■ Greater Carmel ■ Carmel Valley ■ Pebble Beach Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ■ Pacific Grove ■ Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Q3 2023 Significant Sales by Courtney Jones French Tudor in Carmel-by-the-Sea
Carmel Cottage with Modern Updates
Carmelo 5 SE of 2nd, Carmel ■ SP: $4,450,000 Represented Buyer
1st 2 SE Lobos, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $2,595,000 Represented Seller
Breathtaking Views in Carmel Valley
Historical Charm in Pacific Grove
4 Deer Meadow Place, Carmel Valley ■ SP: $2,395,000 Represented Seller
411 Central Avenue, Pacific Grove ■ SP: $1,700,000 Represented Seller
Craftsman Style Cabin in Carmel
Cozy Carmel Cottage
24724 Santa Rita Street, Carmel ■ SP: $1,650,000 Represented Seller
Ocean 3 NE Guadalupe, Carmel ■ SP: $1,395,000 Represented Buyer
Dear Friends, Our biggest challenge this last quarter has been finding good quality inventory. The market continues to move along at a fairly consistent pace, although the looming typical holiday slow down is notable. Buyers sat on the sideline the first half of the year thinking prices were going to drop and when that didn’t happen, activity picked up this summer. While the higher interest rates do give buyers a momentary pause, the biggest concern is future appreciation and where the market is headed in 2024, especially given that it will be an election year. Personally, I find it a refreshing time for buyers to negotiate again and regain some of the power they lost during the peak. This is also the time of year when our off-market inventory rises. Sellers are quietly preparing their houses and targeting the spring to officially list. Just because the market slows for the holidays, there is plenty of activity behind the scenes. Contact me if you’d like a peek into this discreetly available inventory or please visit the buyer tab on my website to sign up for notifications of coming soon property. I always love the start of fall and the excitement of the holidays ahead. I hope you and yours are able to enjoy the winding down of the year even if that means the ramping up of your social calendars! All my best,
Courtney Jones
Courtney Jones 831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com REALTOR® DRE#01806907
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Market Reports Q3 2023
Q3 2023 Market Report
Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s
Get in-depth market updates for key areas across the Monterey Peninsula.
02
Market Overview
03
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
05
Greater Carmel
07
Carmel Valley
09
Pebble Beach
11
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
13
Pacific Grove
15
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Carmel Realty Company’s Q3 2023 Significant Sales The Iconic Butterfly House in Carmel
Views of Point Lobos in Pebble Beach
26320 Scenic Road ■ SP: $29,000,000 ■ Rep. Seller
3908 Ronda Road ■ SP: $13,200,000 ■ Rep. Buyer & Seller
Exceptional Ocean Views in Pebble Beach
Classic & Charming Carmel Cottage
3164 Palmero Way ■ SP: $11,000,000 ■ Rep. Seller
26138 Camino Real ■ SP: $5,450,000 ■ Rep. Buyer & Seller
Steps to the Lodge in Pebble Beach
Remodeled Coastal Home in Carmel
3199 Cortez Road ■ SP: $5,300,000 ■ Rep. Seller
2765 Ribera Road ■ SP: $4,200,000 ■ Rep. Buyer & Seller
01 Market Reports Q3 2023
Q3 2023 Market Overview The Monterey Peninsula had a busy summer beginning with the first ever US Women’s Open in July and continuing through a very successful Concours d’Elegance in August. Over the last three months, the streets have been bustling, shops busy and restaurants flourishing. Demand for real estate remained high and while inventory has improved a bit, the number of available homes for sale on the Peninsula is still well below pre-Covid levels. Real estate sales, sales volume and pricing performance varied meaningfully by area this quarter. Overall, the seven markets we track on the Monterey Peninsula experienced an increase in total dollar volume over Q2 of 2023 and saw the second highest average sales price we have experienced in years. This performance was driven by an exceptional quarter in Carmel-by-the-Sea, where the number of sales increased over 50% above the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. Moreover, there were a few significant sales including the record sale of The Butterfly House, listed and sold by Carmel Realty Company, which drove the average sale price in Carmel to $4.2M. Other markets did not fare as well. Pebble Beach for example, saw only 16 sales for a total of $58.5M in volume this quarter, both of which were the lowest in Pebble Beach over the last 12 quarters. This slowdown was driven by fewer high-end sales, with only three homes sold in the quarter for more than $5M. While the Pebble Beach market was difficult this quarter, Carmel Realty Company continued to perform extremely well in the market accounting for over 50% of sales volume of all the listed homes sold. Currently, 16 of the 29 active listings in Pebble Beach are listed for over $5M. The market on the Peninsula is normalizing into a healthy balance and performing better than most markets across the country. After an extraordinary spike in home values coming out of Covid, our market experienced a much smaller reduction in Real Estate values than most of the country. Across the entire market, we estimate that the reduction in values coming out of Covid was somewhere in the 9% range. Now, with limited inventory and continued demand, it appears that in several of our markets the reduction in value has already evaporated. Average price for homes in many of our neighborhoods is already back to post-Covid levels that peaked in late 2021, and in some markets like Carmel, it is even higher. There are several macro-economic and geo-political issues that will continue to impact the real estate market over the next several quarters. However, given the strong desire to live in our amazing community, we expect our market to continue to outperform others and believe that sales, sales volume, and price to remain healthy for the rest of this year and into 2024.
Market Update Market Update
Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point & Carmel Point
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Average Selling Price
$4,203,932 21.2%
versus Q2 2023
27%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
58
56.8% versus Q2 2023
70.6%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$184,973,000 97.5% versus Q2 2023
99.5%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
44
63%
versus Q2 2023
03 Market Reports Q3 2023
57.1%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
14% 23% 6 homes
10 homes
41% 32%
29%
18 homes 14 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2 2022
Q3 2023
< $1m
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
Q4
13 homes
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
16%
7 homes
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Carmel-by-the-Sea’s one-square mile village is as unique in charm as it is in fun facts. No high heels law, no street addresses, Clint Eastwood was once mayor, and Doris Day helped make Carmel dog heaven on Earth. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Greater Carmel
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point Greater Carmel experienced its fifth straight quarter with low sales numbers, tallying just 13 sales, below typical levels in the low twenties. Six of the 13 sales topped $2M, bringing the average sales price ($2.1M) up almost 25% versus last quarter. With just $71.8M in total sales volume thus far in 2023, the Greater Carmel area is on track for its lowest full-year total sales volume ($95.8M) since 2012.
Average Selling Price
$2,111,087 24.7%
versus Q2 2023
11.6%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
55
77.4% versus Q2 2023
161.9%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$27,444,125 24.7% versus Q2 2023
3.3%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
13
no change versus Q2 2023
05 Market Reports Q3 2023
13.3%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
1 home
15%
2 homes
31%
4 homes
8%
46%
6 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $1m
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Point Lobos State Reserve near Carmel hosts a geologic wonder: rocks of four “ages” can be found there, including the unusual Carmel formation dating back to the Paleocene age (over 60 million years old). “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Carmel Valley Including The Santa Lucia Preserve
After a strong Q2, Carmel Valley saw sales drop from 53 to 43 (typical levels range in the low to mid 50s). Average sales price was strong for the quarter at $1.85M, up 3.6% versus last quarter, and down just 5.5% from the record high Q3 of 2022. Between Carmel Realty Company and sister brokerage Monterey Coast Realty, our company double ended the top two sales in the area for the quarter: 1 Vuelo De Las Palomas and 128 Rancho Road.
Average Selling Price
$1,850,367 3.6%
versus Q2 2023
5.5%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
53
8.2%
versus Q2 2023
39.5%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$79,565,788 15.9%
versus Q2 2023
13.6%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
43
18.9%
versus Q2 2023
07 Market Reports Q3 2023
8.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
5%
2 homes
2%
28%
1 home
12 homes
30%
35%
13 homes
15 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $1m
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? Monterey County is the largest grower of Chardonnay in the United States and the largest grower of Pinot Noir in California. Monterey County has 349 vineyards, 82 bonded wineries and 65 tasting rooms. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Pebble Beach High-priced sales remained difficult to come by in Pebble Beach during Q3 2023. Just two sales over $10M and one sale between $5-$10M occurred in Q3. Carmel Realty Company represented both the seller and buyer of the top sale during the quarter and also represented the seller for the second $10M+ sale and the singular $5M+ sale. Back-to-back quarters of just 16 and 17 home sales resulting in $58.5M and $63.8M respectively in total sales volume, were each the lowest in the area over the last three years. 29 homes remain on the market heading into Q4, including 16 homes over $5M, six of which are over $10M.
Average Selling Price
$3,658,594 2.5%
versus Q2 2023
6.7%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
58
20.8% versus Q2 2023
123.1%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$58,537,500 8.2%
versus Q2 2023
44.7%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
16
5.9%
versus Q2 2023
09 Market Reports Q3 2023
40.7%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
6%
1 home
19%
3 homes
19%
3 homes
56%
9 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $1m
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Lone Cypress tree, located on 17-Mile Drive in Pebble Beach, is a scenic landmark for the Peninsula and is nearly 300 years old. Monterey Cypress trees are a species native only to this region and can live up to 4,000 years. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast Six total sales during Q3 was the most of any quarter this year after five homes sold the previous two quarters. The average sales price in the area came in at $3.8M for the quarter. There were no $10M+ homes sold, but two which sold over $5M. Ten of the 20 remaining active listings in the area are above $5M in list price, six of which are over $10M.
Average Selling Price
$3,821,833 40.1%
versus Q2 2023
0.8%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
56
28.2% versus Q2 2023
31.7%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$22,931,000 28.1%
versus Q2 2023
39.5%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
6
20%
versus Q2 2023
11 Market Reports Q3 2023
40%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
33%
17%
2 homes
1 home
17% 1 home
33%
2 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $1m
$1m–$2m $2m–$3m $3m–$5m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$5m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Bixby Bridge in Big Sur was built by prisoners eager to earn “good time” off their prison sentences. It is one of the world’s highest single-span bridges at 714 feet long by 260 feet high. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Pacific Grove Quarter 3 of 2023 in Pacific Grove was consistent with its previous three quarters dating back to Q4 2022 in terms of sales with 30 for the quarter (versus 32, 30, 30). Average sales price, hit a record high, nearing $1.78M. This was up 15% versus both last quarter and the same quarter of last year. Average days on the market finished the quarter at just 22 days, showing strong buyer demand when quality homes come on the market in Pacific Grove. Unfortunately for buyers, supply continues to be low with just 18 active listings on the market moving into Q4.
Average Selling Price
$1,779,178 15%
versus Q2 2023
15%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
22
26.7% versus Q2 2023
4.3%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$53,375,342 7.8%
versus Q2 2023
28.1%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
30
6.3%
versus Q2 2023
13 Market Reports Q3 2023
37.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
2 homes
23%
7%
7 homes
20%
50%
6 homes
15 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $800k $800k-$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$2m–$3m
$3m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Monarch Butterfly Sanctuary in Pacific Grove is one of the largest monarch overwintering sites in America. The monarchs arrive in October after a 2,000-mile migration and overwinter until February. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
Market Update
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks Monterey experienced 52 total sales during Q3, down 21% from last quarter and below the typical average over 75. The average sales price ($1.26M) was up 10.9% versus last quarter and back to a consistent price with what we have seen over the last two years. Just one sale over $3M occurred in the quarter, with Pasadera and Monterra contributing just one home sale over $2M in the quarter. The median sales price returned to $1.18M in Q3, after falling below $1M in Q2. A slightly higher than average 48 active listings remain on the market at the end of the quarter, showing promise for an uptick in sales during the quarter ahead.
Average Selling Price
$1,258,829 10.9%
versus Q2 2023
2.3%
versus Q3 2022
Days on Market
35
40%
versus Q2 2023
20.7%
versus Q3 2022
Sales Volume
$65,459,130 12.6%
versus Q2 2023
7.6%
versus Q3 2022
Units Sold
52
21.2%
versus Q2 2023
15 Market Reports Q3 2023
5.5%
versus Q3 2022
Q3 2023 Breakdown
Average vs. Median Sales Price
Sales by Segment
in millions
2%
10%
1 home
5 homes
38%
20 homes
23%
12 homes
27%
14 homes
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Average
Q2
Q3 2023
< $800k $800k-$1.2m $1.2m–$2m
Number of Closed Sales By Quarter
in millions
2022
Q3 2023
Median
Total Sales Volume By Quarter
Q1
Q2 2023
Q4
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
$2m–$3m
$3m+
Median Sales Price in millions
Q1
Q2 2022
Q3
Q4
2023
Did You Know? The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary covers 5,312 square miles. This is one and a half times the size of the largest national park in the continental U.S. At its center is a submarine canyon twice as deep as the Grand Canyon. “Monterey County Fun Facts”, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2020
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