Carmel, Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q1 2019 Market Report
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Letter from Courtney
Q1 2019 Market Report
Dear Friends,
A
s time continues to go by too fast, we find the winter months already behind us. While Q1 was relatively quiet for the real estate market and the rain continued to fall, data signals a continued status quo. Sales prices remained consistent, as did marketing periods. The $2-$3M price segment is our most saturated; with 48 active listings that take an average of 100 days to sell. Overall, the US economic fundamentals are solid and while “flat” isn’t normally a projection to write home about, I don’t think any of us can complain about this extended bull market. With that said, this year we will see only slight price appreciation, if any, and fewer sales. We will likely see increased inventory and more price reductions. Now is the time for buyers to negotiate as the market will eventually soften. Numbers aside, we look forward to a very exciting summer as Pebble Beach not only hosts the US Open, June 10-16th, but celebrates its centennial. Hope to see you soon! Best,
Courtney Jones
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
30774 San Remo Road, Carmel ■ $1,775,000 Represented Seller
5315 Carmel Valley Road, Carmel ■ $1,125,000 Represented Seller
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Table of Contents
Q1 2019 Market Report
Carmel, & Carmel-by-the-Sea ����������������������������������� 4 Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������� 6 Pebble Beach ��������������������������������������������� 8 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ���������������������������10
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
3
Carmel & Carmel-by-the-Sea
About Carmel
Q1 2019 Market Report
Average Selling Price
T
he macroeconomic concerns which started late last year, continued to impact the Carmel market in Q1, 2019. Both sales volume and the units sold were down over 30% compared to a very healthy Q1, 2018. This decline was further exaggerated by record rainfall which undoubtedly delayed the selling season. Carmel average sales price remained flat throughout the quarter and the number of transactions under contract increased dramatically to 78, which indicates a much stronger Q2.
Q1 2019 Sales by Segment 25%
4% 13%
31%
<$1M | 13 $1M-2M | 16 $2M-3M | 14 $3M-5M | 7 $5M+ | 2
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
vs Q
Units Sold
vs Q
27%
Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel & Carmel-by-the-Sea
Q1 2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$2M
100
$1.75M
75
$1.5M
50
$1.25M
25
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019 YTD
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 YTD
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$180M
120
$160M
90
$2.25M
$1.75M
$140M
60
$120M
30
$1.25M
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2018 2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2017 Median 2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
5
Carmel Valley
Q1 2019 Market Report
About Carmel Valley
Average Selling Price
C
ompared to most of our other markets, demand in Carmel Valley remained strong, only trailing Q1 of 2018 by 5%. Average sales price and total volume were also lower than a year ago more as a result of the mix of properties sold. There is more diverse product throughout the valley where Q1 sales ranged from $400K to $3.9M, with the majority of sales just under $1M.
Q1 2019 Sales by Segment
5%
40%
55%
<$1M | 11 $1M-2M | 8 $2M-3M | 0 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 0
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
vs Q
Units Sold
vs Q
Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Valley
Q1 2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$1.25M
85
$1M 80
$0.75M 75
$0.5M
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019 YTD
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 YTD
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$50M
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
50
$1.5M
40
$40M
$1.25M
30
$30M
$1M
20
$20M
$0.75M
10
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2017 2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2017 Median 2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
7
Pebble Beach
Q1 2019 Market Report
About Pebble Beach
L
Average Selling Price
ike Carmel, Q1 sales in Pebble Beach were impacted by macroeconomic concerns dating back to 2018 and by our recent record rainfall. Average sale price and total market volume were both down meaningfully over a healthy Q1, 2018. These results were driven by fewer sales over $5M where there were 2 in Q1, 2019 vs. 5 in Q1 a year ago. The Pebble Beach market is currently accelerating with 17 pending sales for Q2 vs. only 3 a quarter ago. Additionally, there is more movement at the very high-end of the market.
11%
14%
11%
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
Q1 2019 Sales by Segment
7%
vs Q
<$1M | 4 $1M-2M | 16 $2M-3M | 3 $3M-5M | 3 $5M+ | 2
Units Sold
vs Q
57%
Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Pebble Beach
Q1 2019 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$2.8M
120
$2.35M
90
$1.9M
60
$1.45M
30
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019 YTD
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 YTD
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$150M
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
50
$4.25M
40
$120M
$3.5M
30
$90M
$2.75M
20
$60M
$2M
10
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2017 2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2017 Median 2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
9
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
About Carmel Highlands
T
he Carmel Highlands, South Coast and Big Sur markets experienced an increase of 38% in number of units sold from 13 to 18 sales. The average sales price in this market increased by almost 20% to $2,938,700. The total sales volume increased over 50% to $53M in 2018 versus the previous two years which were eďŹ&#x20AC;ected by limited access to those markets in 2016 and 2017.
Q1 2019 Market Report
Average Selling Price
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
Q1 2019 Sales by Segment
$1M-2M | 1 $2M-3M | 1 $3M-5M | 0 $5M+ | 0 50%
50%
Units Sold
vs Q
vs Q
Days on Market
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q1 2019 Market Report
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $3.5M
260
$2.75M
195
$2M
130
$1.25M
65
2015
2016
2017
Average Sale Price
2018
2019 YTD
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019 YTD
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$30M
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
6
$7M
$23M
$5.25M
4 $16M
$3.5M
2 $8M
$1.75M
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
2017 2018 2019
Q3
Q4
2017 Median 2018 Median 2019 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
11
A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years
Courtney Adamski
Dave Howarth
Rebecca Wolf Arnold
Courtney Jones
Carrie Baumgart
Lynn Knoop
Chris Baumgart
Greg Kraft
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Steve LaVaute
Mary Bell
Marcie Lowe
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Mark Ryan
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