Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Point, Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q2 2020 Market Report
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Letter from Courtney
Q2 2020 Market Report
Dear Friends, What a roller coaster ride the past few months have been! While San Francisco saw the smallest uptick in demand for any county in the Bay Area in June at just 6%, Monterey County saw the largest, with a 61% increase, according to the San Jose Business Journal in an article published on July 10th. Monterey was followed by Santa Cruz, Sonoma and Napa. And the momentum is only increasing as we head into Q3. Strong showing activity, multiple offers, shrinking demand and an increasing number of qualified buyers indicate that this frenzy will continue for at least the next couple of months. Buyers in this market must come prepared to act quickly. However, with an election coming up in November, I question whether these are long term market conditions. Looking back, the market was fickle as we navigated new territory during a global pandemic. May took a complete nose dive while June was a record breaking month. Data from Q2 shows average sales price declines in both Carmel and Carmel Valley while Pebble Beach increased largely due to one $10M sale. One out of only 20 sales is sure to skew the numbers. And Carmel Valley’s numbers were bolstered by higher activity at the Santa Lucia Preserve, as more buyers prioritized privacy and space than ever before.
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
What we can say is that our beautiful Monterey Peninsula is looked at as a refuge to many. Our feeder markets are typically the San Francisco Bay Area and LA, but we are seeing more demand from out of state. It is clear that at least the next few months are going to be super active, prices will increase and buyers need to stay patient and be prepared. Please take a look at the following pages for more specifics on each market segment and please don’t hesitate to reach out as I’d welcome a conversation to discuss these data points further. All my best,
Courtney Jones
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
My Significant Sales in Q2
Q2 2020 Market Report
Casanova 3 SE 10th, Carmel-by-the-Sea SP: $3,200,000, Represented Buyer
305 Pasadera Court, Monterey SP: $2,800,000, Represented Seller
25780 Paseo Estribo, Monterey SP: $2,350,000, Represented Buyer
25695 Baldwin Place, Carmel SP: $1,295,000, Represented Seller
Dolores South of Seventh â– P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â– Fax: 831.624.7338
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Q2 2020 Market Report
Market Overview The Downturn
A
n analytic review of market performance for the second quarter of 2020 highlights the impact the Covid-19 pandemic has had on our Real Estate market. All of our markets experienced a significant downturn in activity starting in late March and bottoming out in May where we saw transaction numbers lower than we have seen in over a decade. The decline in activity was a direct result of Statewide and County health orders that put extraordinary (but some understandable) restrictions on Realtors. As those restrictions began to loosen, business on the Peninsula began to rebound.
The Recovery
P
ent-up demand from the Covid shutdown, combined with a significant increase in the number of new buyers from big cities looking to move to The Peninsula, has driven a very strong recovery in our market. Both June and July will be very strong months with growth in number of sales and total sales volume expected. Based on the current number of homes pending under contract and by the number of active buyers looking at property, we expect this rebound to continue through Q2 and into Q3 with very strong sales performance. One additional positive indicator is that, even through the downturn, pricing in our markets has held up strongly. Overall, we are seeing final sale prices closing in the mid to high 90’s as a percentage of asking price in most of our markets, which is consistent with where this calculation was during the same period last year.
Dolores South of Seventh â– P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â– Fax: 831.624.7338
Table of Contents
Q2 2020 Market Report
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point �������������������������������������������� 6 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������� 8 The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������10 Pebble Beach ������������������������������������������� 12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ���������������������������14
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
About Carmel-by-the-Sea
C
armel-by-the Sea and Carmel Point saw a downturn in the momentum from Q1. The number of sales and the sales volume were down by an average of 50% over Q1 2020 and Q2 of 2019. Limits to showing property in April led to May having only 2 closings. June had 4 closings and saw a very large number of homes be put into contract. We expect this region to have a very strong Q3.
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
$2,078,378 24% vs Q1 2020 9% vs Q2 2019
Sales Volume
$37.4M 54% vs Q1 2020 58% vs Q2 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
4%
42% 23% 31%
Units Sold
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 20 $2M-3M | 15 $3M-5M | 11 $5M+ | 2
18
40% vs Q1 2020
54% vs Q2 2019
Days on Market*
41
65% vs Q1 2020
40% vs Q2 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales
Days on Market*
$2.8M
120
90
$2.1M 60
$1.4M 30
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Average
Median
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $90M
40
$68M
30
$2.8M
$2.1M $45M
20 $1.4M
$23M
10
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
2019 2020
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Greater Carmel
Q2 2020 Market Report
The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
About Greater Carmel
T
he Q2 downturn had less impact on the Greater Carmel than it did in Carmelby-the-Sea. The number of sales and sales volume were down 30%. Closing pricing held up strong as a percentage of asking price. 65% of the sales YTD are in the $12M range, which is significantly higher than 2019. Closings were flat in April and May with 8 of the 13 sales occurring in June. There are currently 29 active listings and 13 pending sales. Q3 looks promising based on current activity.
Average Selling Price
$1,337,538 6% vs Q1 2020 21% vs Q2 2019
Sales Volume
$17.4M 32% vs Q1 2020 48% vs Q2 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
3%
19% 13% 65%
<$1M | 6 $1M-2M | 20 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 0
Units Sold
13
28% vs Q1 2020
35% vs Q2 2019
Days on Market*
20
79% vs Q1 2020
76% vs Q2 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Greater Carmel
Q2 2020 Market Report
The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$1.75M
100
$1.5M
75
$1.25M
50
$1M
25
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Average
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$34M
$1.75M
$1.5M
$26M
20 $1.25M
$17M
10 $1M
$9M
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
9
Carmel Valley
About Carmel Valley
T
he Carmel Valley market was nearly non-existent for the month of May. However, it showed strong signs of recovery with 10 of the quarter’s 20 sales closing in June. The strongest price segment is still the under $1M price point but 2020 is showing an increase in the $1M-2M range YTD over 2019. The number of sales in Q2 were not down significantly over Q1 but were down 68% compared to Q2 of 2019. There are 29 pending sales in Carmel Valley and only 43 active listings limiting the months of available inventory.
Q2 2020 Market Report
$1,310,600
Average Selling Price
29% vs Q1 2020 13% vs Q2 2019
Sales Volume
38% vs Q1 2020 64% vs Q2 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
2% 2%
47% 9% 40%
$26.2M Units Sold
<$1M | 20 $1M-2M | 17 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 1
20
13% vs Q1 2020
68% vs Q2 2019
Days on Market*
46
57% vs Q1 2020
43% vs Q2 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Valley
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$2M
120
$1.5M
90
$1M
60
$0.5M
30
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Average
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $90M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
70
$2M
56
$70M
$1.5M
42
$50M 28
$1M
$30M
14
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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Pebble Beach
About Pebble Beach
P
ebble Beach was one of the few markets that experienced significant improvement over Q1 of 2020. Average Sales Price and Sales Volume were both up as a result of two significant sales one at $10M and one at $10.9M. Of the 20 sales in Q2, 11 were over $3M bringing the YTD total to 39%. The bulk of the activity happened in June with 13 of 20 sales closing. There are a number of larger properties under contract and scheduled to close in Q3. We expect Q3 to be a very strong quarter for Pebble Beach.
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
104% vs Q1 2020 10% vs Q2 2019
Sales Volume
6% 11%
14% 25%
$75.7M 155% vs Q1 2020 35% vs Q2 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
44%
$3,783,807
Units Sold
<$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 16 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 9 $5M+ | 5
20
25% vs Q1 2020
41% vs Q2 2019
Days on Market*
105
31% vs Q1 2020
62% vs Q2 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Pebble Beach
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$4M
130
$3.25M
97.5
$2.5M
65
$1.75M
32.5
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Average
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
40
$140M
$4.5M
32
$110M
$3.5M
24 $80M
$2.5M
16 $50M
$1.5M
8
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
13
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
About Carmel Highlands
T
he Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast market continued its momentum of Q1 with 5 sales totaling $26M in volume, bringing the YTD sales volume to over $44M, which is double of all of 2019. Of the 5 sales, 3 were in excess of $6M with the lowest price sale of the quarter at $2.4M. There are only 12 properties available for sale and a total of 6 that are in escrow. For an area that sees very little activity, 2020 is shaping up to be one of the most productive yet.
Average Selling Price
11%
22% 56%
$5,239,000 15% vs Q1 2020 184% vs Q2 2019
Sales Volume
$26.2M 43% vs Q1 2020 609% vs Q2 2019
2020 YTD Sales by Segment
11%
Q2 2020 Market Report
Units Sold
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 1 $2M-3M | 1 $3M-5M | 2 $5M+ | 5
5
25% vs Q1 2020
150% vs Q2 2019
Days on Market*
129
21% vs Q1 2020
45% vs Q2 2019
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q2 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$6.5M
240
$5M
180
$3.5M
120
$2M
60
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Average
Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$30M
8
$7M
$23M
6
$5.25M
$16M
4
$3.5M
$8M
2
$1.75M
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
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A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com