Q3 2022 Market Report | Carmel Realty Company

Market Overview

You have heard it said that we live in a bubble here on the Monterey Peninsula. That bubble has protected us and softened many of the global and national disruptions that have so adversely affected other areas. This phenomenon is holding true as it relates to the real estate market as well.

Concern over the housing market across the US has been aggressively reported in all the daily news. The downturn in the number of sales, dollar volume, and home prices is significant in most markets across the country. With an exceptional quality of life here, the desire to live on The Penin sula remains very high. We have limited inventory of homes for sale, and many of our markets are less impacted by rising interest rates. While our market is also normalizing and performing behind some of the record numbers we delivered in 2021, so far we are not realizing the dramatic reduc tion in real estate results seen in other markets. Of all the markets we track across the Peninsula, the number of sales in Q3, 2022 is down 31% and total volume in dollars is down 27% from the same quarter of last year. While this is less of a decline than many markets across the US, the big ger news here on The Peninsula is that price is holding strong. Five of our 9 markets have seen an increase this year over Q3 2021 while 4 have seen a mild decrease. Overall, the average sales price in Q3 2022 is higher than it was in Q3 2021 and just 5% down from the second quarter of this year.

As always, our company analytics team is tracking dozens of macro and micro variables affecting sales and pricing in our local real estate market. For example, we know that of the 315 sales that took place in Q3 across all markets, 162 of them sold below asking price. This is 51% of total sales which was up from only 31% of total sales selling below asking in Q2 of this year. The average price reduction was 5.5% below asking price for these 162 sales in Q3 of this year. At the same time, 31% of homes in Q3 sold for over asking price while 17% went at asking price. These analytics tell us that our market is experiencing slightly less of a downturn in the total num ber of sales and sales volume and significantly less of a downturn in average sale price when com pared with most markets across the US. We are continuing to see volatility from month to month and are tracking every possible variable to provide intelligence to our clients that allow for in formed buying and selling decisions. It has never been more important to work with a realtor who has access to factual data and a focused analytics team in place to analyze and logically present the implications of this data.

The following report breaks out 5 of the markets we track with additional performance detail. We hope you will find this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is any thing we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.

Quarter 3 of 2022 in Carmel-by-the-Sea saw sales prices remain high, down less than 2% from Q2. Uncertainty in the market led to just 28 sales throughout the quarter, the lowest since Q2 of 2020. Homes are also beginning to remain on the market longer with the average days on market moving up to 34, the highest of any quarter this year. Through three quarters of 2022, total sales volume (dollars) is easily on track to surpass 2019 and all years prior, but is tracking well short of both Q3 2020 and Q3 2021.

CARMEL

a huge Q2 2022 that saw two sales over $10M and a median sales price over $2.2M, Q3 in the Greater Carmel area came back to normal levels. The average sales price of $1.89M is right on par with that of both Q1 2022 and the last two quarters of 2021. The number of sales (15) fell to its lowest point since Q2 of 2020, in the heart of the COVID pandemic. Both average days on market and number of actives stayed low showing demand remains even with limited inventory.

CARMEL VALLEY

Average sales prices remained high in Carmel Valley, with Q3 sporting the second highest amount on record ($1.96M). With prices continuing to climb the number of sales in the area has slowed down to just 47 for the quarter. Carmel Valley is seeing fewer and fewer homes sell for under $1M (15%), with 51% selling between $1M-2M and the remaining 33% over $2M. With 47 homes on the market to end the quarter and demand remaining relatively high, there are signs that Carmel Valley should continue to perform as a strong market moving for ward.

BEACH

Pebble Beach had an interesting Q3 that dif fered from recent quarters. The number of sales went up compared to Q2 and Q1 of 2022. Average sales price in contrast, decreased, as we saw an uptick of $1M-2M properties sell this quarter. In fact, 11 of the 27 sales came in under $2M (41%), while for all of 2022 only 24% come in under this amount. This brought the average sales price under $4M for just the second time over the past seven quarters. While inventory has been tight over the last few quarters it seems to be a bit stronger now. Demand remains strong indicating a strong Q4 for Pebble Beach.

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

10 sales during the quarter in the Car mel Highlands and Big Sur area came di vided on both the low end and high end of the pricing spectrum. Of the 10 sales, 2 were un der $350K and 6 came in above $3M. While the average days on market was high at 82 days, this was primarily due to 2 sales that re mained on market for 187 and 291 days before selling, which is not atypical for this region. With a strong Q4 2022, this area could reach 2020 and possibly 2021 in total sales volume.

Courtney Adamski

Geoff Arnold

Rebecca Wolf Arnold

Chris Babalis

Jeremy Barrett

Carrie Baumgart

Chris Baumgart

Mary Bell

Sarah Bouchier

Paul Brocchini

Kris Butler

Peter Butler

Christine Chin

Susan Clark

Lisa Talley Dean

Mark Duchesne

Bobbie Ehrenpreis

Bill Faber

Maria Finkle

Susan Freeland

Christine Handel

Malone Hodges

Dave Howarth

Julia Humason

Courtney Jones

Karen Katz David Kent

Lynn Knoop

Greg Kraft

Steve LaVaute

Kean Matthams

Sharon Matthams

Kris McAulay

Doug McKenzie

Linda Miller

Bill Mitchell

Vicki Mitchell

Shelly Mitchell Lynch

Jamal Noorzoy

Judie Profeta

Chris Pryor Mel Rosen Mark Ryan

Connie Snowdon

Ed Stellingsma

Judy Tollner

Carla White

Brett Wilbur

Rhonda Williams