CA R M E L R E A LT Y C O M PA N Y
Q2 2021 Market Report
C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , B I G S U R & S O U T H C O A S T, M O N T E R E Y, PA C I F I C G R O V E Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com | DRE#01871627
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s
Letter From Courtney Dear Friends, Welcome to our Q2 2021 market recap. For the first time in recorded history, California had a shrinking population. But while some are choosing to leave the state, many in the more populated areas, such as San Francisco, are choosing to move to the coastal areas of California and the bulk of the growth is right here on the central coast. It’s no secret that the Monterey Peninsula offers a high quality of life and it shows in the Q2 market data. Every part of the housing market is growing, but especially at the high end of the market. Buyers are looking for bigger, nicer primary homes. Monterey County is outperforming the state. The state was up 90% in May, while Monterey County was up 150%. The average sales price was 101% of list and the median days on market is only 10 days. Carmel-by-the-Sea and Pebble Beach are the strongest performers as the affluent buyers are motivated and have the means to make this life style change a reality. Given high demand and limited supply, 70% of the market is closing above asking. With all this said, there are a few red flags. Buyer fatigue is settling in due to the challenges of such a competitive market. Mortgage applications actually declined last month. The number of sales are slowing due to limited supply. We are starting to see a few price reductions. And the number of homes hitting the market is just starting to increase, but inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Value right now isn’t necessarily about analyzing past sales as much as what buyers are willing to pay and how long the property has been on the market. Buyers have been willingly waiving appraisal contingencies and paying over appraised value in recent months. What’s ahead? At some point, we’ll see a correction. Worst case forecasts show a 10-15% correction in home prices in California as a whole. And a correction won’t be as severe as it was in 2008. There are not as many fundamental problems in the mortgage market like there were in 2005-2008. Interest rates will likely rise, but will remain at relatively low historical rates. For the short term, price forecasts remain in the double digits for 2021 but the number of sales will decline simply due to limited inventory.
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Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Please flip through these pages for specifics on our local market categories and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions. I’m always happy to provide a free opinion of value if you are curious where your property stands in today’s market. Wishing you a restful and healthy summer.
Courtney Jones
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
My Significant Sales of Q2
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
8700 River Meadows, Carmel ■ SP: $3,400,000 Represented Buyer
1443 Deer Flat, Monterey ■ SP: $2,326,000 Represented Seller
12260 Carola Drive, Carmel Valley ■ SP: $1,175,000 Represented Buyer
Dolores 3 SE 7, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $3,000,000 Represented Buyer
59431 Garrapatos Road, Carmel ■ SP: $1,999,000 Represented Buyer & Seller
2692 15th Avenue, Carmel ■ SP: $5,100,000 Represented Buyer
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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Market Overview
M
arket demand for houses across The Peninsula remained very strong in the second quarter of 2021. Current indications are that the 2021 calendar year volume levels will stay at exceedingly high levels. There were 477 sales in the nine markets we cover across The Peninsula representing a total volume of $932M in sales. This volume level is well ahead of Q1, 2021 and nearly three times the volume recorded in Q2 of last year. There are two important facts to note in this quarter’s results. First, the year over year comparisons look extraordinary because we are comparing a very healthy Q2 of 2021 against the Covid impacted Q2 of 2020. Last April and May, sales activity was severely impacted by Covid health and regulatory restrictions. Second, this last quarter proved that the level of out-of-market demand has remained very high. Sales levels in Q2, 2021 are for the most part up from last quarter and only modestly behind Q3 and Q4 of last year, when we experienced record breaking quarters in nearly every market across The Peninsula. Another current driver in the market is the extremely low inventory of homes for sale. This recent quarter ended with 233 listed properties across all nine markets we track, compared to 454 at this same time last year. With inventory down almost 50% and demand remaining high, we are seeing measurable increases in home values. The market has also been experiencing multiple offers on a large percentage of new listings. This is a new phenomenon for our market and has added a level of complexity for both the buying and selling side. While each scenario is unique, we are just now getting helpful data to inform decisions based on location, price, demand, and other factors. We hope you will find the attached quarterly report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.
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Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Carmel-by-the-Sea && Carmel Point ..................6 66 Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point .................. Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel Point ������������ Greater Carmel ....................................................8 88 Greater Carmel .................................................... Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������������� The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point TheThe areas outside of Carmel-by-the SeaSea & Carmel Point areas outside of Carmel-by-the & Carmel Point
Carmel Valley .....................................................1010 Carmel Valley ..................................................... 10 Carmel Valley ����������������������������������������������� Pebble Beach .......................................................1212 Pebble Beach ........................................................ 12 Pebble Beach �������������������������������������������������� Carmel Highlands, Carmel Highlands, Carmel Highlands,Big Sur & South Coast .... 14 Big Sur && South Coast ......................................1414 Big Sur South Coast �������������������������������� Monterey ............................................................. 16 Pacific Grove ����������������������������������������������� 16 Pacific Grove ...................................................... 18 Monterey ������������������������������������������������������ 18
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L - B Y-T H E - S E A
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel-by-the-Sea had a very strong second quarter of 2021 with 49 properties changing hands and total market volume of $160M. The number of sales is up 172% over the Covid impacted second quarter of 2020 and is also up 40% over a healthy Q1 of 2021. Total volume is also well ahead of Q2 last year and Q1 of 2021. The average sale price of $3,266,057 is at an all-time high in Q2 of 2021. This is a product of increased prices due to strong demand and low inventory but is also driven a mix of higher priced homes selling in the quarter.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 1 $1M-2M | 15 $2M-3M | 14 $3M-5M | 13 $5M+ | 6
$3,266,057 25.5% vs Q1 2021 57.1% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
$160M 76% vs Q1 2021
328% vs Q2 2020
12%
2%
DAYS ON MARKET
100% vs Q1 2021
27%
7% vs Q2 2020
31% 29%
38
UNITS SOLD
49
40% vs Q1 2021
172% vs Q2 2020
6
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$3.4M
50
$2.6M
37.5
$1.7M
25
$0.9M
12.5
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$200M
80
$3.4M
$150M
60
$2.6M
$100M
40
$50M
20
$1.7M
$0.9M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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G R E AT E R C A R M E L
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel experienced a healthy Q2 with 28 home sales and just under $57M in total sales volume. That sales volume is well ahead of the same quarter last year and very close to the volume in Q1 of this year. Average sale price in the area has declined but this is a product fewer high priced homes trading in the quarter. Overall demand remains high and with only 17 homes on the market at the end of the quarter, we are continuing to see an increase in home values.
12.9% vs Q1 2021 52% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
<$1M | 7 $1M-2M | 10 $2M-3M | 7 $3M-5M | 3 $5M+ | 1
$56.9M 2% vs Q1 2021
228% vs Q2 2020
4% SALES BY SEGMENT
$2,034,134
DAYS ON MARKET
11% 25% 36%
31 46% vs Q1 2021
55% vs Q2 2020
25% UNITS SOLD
28
12% vs Q1 2021
115% vs Q2 2020
8
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Greater Carmel
Days on Market*
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.4M
80
$1.8M
60
$1.2M
40
$0.6M
20
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$70M
40
$2.4M
$53M
30
$1.8M
$35M
20
$18M
10
$1.2M
$0.6M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L VA L L E Y
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel Valley has now recorded 4 quarters of very healthy sales volume. A total of 330 homes have sold in the market in the trailing 12 months. This is well ahead of annual sales record for the area. 2020 saw an annual record sales level of 253 home sales. There were 87 sales in Q2 contributing to a record quarterly volume level of $161M. This is a very positive statement demonstrating the strength of the Carmel Valley Market even with inventory levels down considerably.
9% SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 22 $1M-2M | 38 $2M-3M | 14 $3M-5M | 8 $5M+ | 5
$1,858,162 9.4% vs Q1 2021
41.7% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
$161.6M 39% vs Q1 2021
252% vs Q2 2020
6%
DAYS ON MARKET
58 14% vs Q1 2021
2% vs Q2 2020
16% 25% 44%
UNITS SOLD
87
26% vs Q1 2021
142% vs Q2 2020
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Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Carmel Valley
Days on Market*
Average vs Median Sales Price $1.9M
60
$1.4M
55
$1.0M
50
$0.5M
45
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$180M
100
$1.9M
$135M
75
$1.4M
$90M
50
$45M
25
$1.0M
$0.5M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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P E B B L E B E AC H
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
P
ebble Beach had another very strong quarter with 44 home sales and total volume of $205M. This is the exact same number of sales as Q1 but with more higher priced homes trading total sales dollar volume increased in Q2 over Q1 by approximately 10%. Average sale price trading hit a new high at $4,672,897. This is a result of 25 homes over $3M trading in the quarter, 16 of which were over $5M as well. With several new higher priced homes in escrow at the beginning of Q3, we expect the strength in this market to continue.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 8 $1M-2M | 9 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 9 $5M+ | 16
12
20% 18%
$4,672,897 10% vs Q1 2021
23.5% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
$205.6M 10% vs Q1 2021
172% vs Q2 2020
5%
DAYS ON MARKET
25% vs Q1 2021
52% vs Q2 2020
20% 36%
50
UNITS SOLD
44 no change vs Q1 2021 120% vs Q2 2020
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Pebble Beach Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$5.0M
110
$3.8M
82.5
$2.5M
55
$1.3M
27.5
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$220M
60
$5.0M
$165M
45
$3.8M
$110M
30
$55M
15
$2.5M
$1.3M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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CARMEL HIGHLANDS
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
F
or the 10 years leading up to Covid (2020), The Carmel Highlands Market averaged 13.7 home sales per year. Last year that number increased to 54 for the year 2020. This quarter there were 15 transactions, more in a single quarter than we averaged for the 10 years prior to Covid. This confirmed the recent surge we are seeing in demand for this beautiful community. Total sales volume of $63M is second highest quarterly volume behind Q3 of last year. Average sale price is strong at $4.2M and inventory levels are a bit stronger than other markets with 24 homes currently listed.
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69.5% vs Q1 2021 19% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
$63.5M
111.9% vs Q1 2021 143% vs Q2 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
7% 27%
132 32% vs Q1 2021
33%
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 2 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 5
$4,239,412
2% vs Q2 2020
20% 13%
UNITS SOLD
15
25% vs Q1 2021
200% vs Q2 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$7.0M
140
$5.3M
105
$3.5M
70
$1.8M
35
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$90M
30
$7.0M
$68M
22.5
$5.3M
$45M
15
$23M
7.5
$3.5M
$1.8M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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PAC I F I C G R OV E
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
P
acific Grove experienced very strong sales activity with 62 homes trading in Q2. That number compares to 53 trading in Q1 of this year and only 30 trading in this same quarter last year. Total sales volume in PG was $86M which is the second highest quarterly result in the last 6 quarters, just slightly behind Q3 of last year. Demand for PG continues to be very strong and the number of homes for sale sits at 25, compared to 49 in the same quarter last year.
10.7% vs Q1 2021
44.5% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
$86.8M 4% vs Q1 2021
199% vs Q2 2020
2%
DAYS ON MARKET
13%
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 21 $1M-2M | 32 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 0
$1,401,548
22 45% vs Q1 2021
47% vs Q2 2020
52%
34% UNITS SOLD
62
17% vs Q1 2021
107% vs Q2 2020
16 18
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Pacific Grove Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$1.6M
50
$1.2M
37.5
$0.8M
25
$0.4M
12.5
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$100M
80
$1.6M
$75M
60
$1.2M
$50M
40
$25M
20
$0.8M
$0.4M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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MONTEREY
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he Monterey Market set a record for quarterly sales volume in Q2 with $127M in transaction volume. There were 105 sales in the quarter and 48% were over $1M. This increase in the number of higher priced homes contributed to an increase in average sale price to $1,215,160. This is the second highest quarterly average sale price the market has seen. Inventory continues to be the biggest challenge in this market with only 40 homes currently listed for sale compared to 73 at this time last year. Given the strong demand for less product we expect values to continue to increase.
24.6% vs Q1 2021
5.85% vs Q2 2020 SALES VOLUME
<$1M | 55 $1M-2M | 36 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 6 $5M+ | 0
18 16
$127.5M 51% vs Q1 2021
160% vs Q2 2020
8% SALES BY SEGMENT
$1,215,160
6%
DAYS ON MARKET
21 36% vs Q1 2021
64% vs Q2 2020
34% 52%
UNITS SOLD
105
21% vs Q1 2021
176% vs Q2 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q2 2021 MARKET REPORT
Monterey
Days on Market*
Average vs Median Sales Price $1.3M
60
$1.0M
45
$0.7M
30
$0.3M
15
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Average
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th, 2020 due to COVID-19
Median
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$130M
110
$1.3M
$98M
82.5
$1.0M
$65M
55
$33M
27.5
$0.7M
$0.3M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
19 17
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s