Q3 Market Report 2022 - Courtney Jones

Letter From Courtney

Dear Friends,

Our market has transitioned and those crazy COVID driven years are behind us. With that said, sales volume and average sales prices for the year are trending above what we saw in 2019. The biggest change: longer marketing periods. It now takes about one month for a home to sell. Higher interest rates and the fear of a pending recession are keeping more buyers on the sidelines. We are still dealing with low inventory. With the number of transactions down across the board, now is the time for buyers to start negotiating again. Luckily for us, living on the Monterey Peninsula is a dream and a decline in pricing will be a welcomed opportunity for buyers. We are somewhat protected from drastic swings in the market here in our bubble. Please take a look through the following pages for specific data in each market. Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions.

Wishing you a wonderful last few months of 2022,

Jones

Courtney Jones

Market Overview

You have heard it said that we live in a bubble here on the Monterey Peninsula. at bubble has protected us and so ened many of the global and national disruptions that have so adversely a ected other areas. is phenomenon is holding true as it relates to the real estate market as well.

Concern over the housing market across the US has been aggressively reported in all the daily news. e downturn in the number of sales, dollar volume, and home prices is signi cant in most markets across the country. With an exceptional quality of life here, the desire to live on e Peninsula remains very high. We have limited inventory of homes for sale, and many of our markets are less impacted by rising interest rates. While our market is also normalizing and performing behind some of the record numbers we delivered in 2021, so far we are not realizing the dramatic reduction in real estate results seen in other markets. Of all the markets we track across the Peninsula, the number of sales in Q3, 2022 is down 31% and total volume in dollars is down 27% from the same quarter of last year. While this is less of a decline than many markets across the US, the bigger news here on e Peninsula is that price is holding strong. Five of our 9 markets have seen an increase this year over Q3 2021 while 4 have seen a mild decrease. Overall, the average sales price in Q3 2022 is higher than it was in Q3 2021 and just 5% down from the second quarter of this year.

As always, our company analytics team is tracking dozens of macro and micro variables a ecting sales and pricing in our local real estate market. For example, we know that of the 315 sales that took place in Q3 across all markets, 162 of them sold below asking price. is is 51% of total sales which was up from only 31% of total sales selling below asking in Q2 of this year. e average price reduction was 5.5% below asking price for these 162 sales in Q3 of this year. At the same time, 31% of homes in Q3 sold for over asking price while 17% went at asking price.

ese analytics tell us that our market is experiencing slightly less of a downturn in the total number of sales and sales volume and signi cantly less of a downturn in average sale price when compared with most markets across the US. We are continuing to see volatility from month to month and are tracking every possible variable to provide intelligence to our clients that allow for informed buying and selling decisions. It has never been more important to work with a realtor who has access to factual data and a focused analytics team in place to analyze and logically present the implications of this data.

e following report breaks out 5 of the markets we track with additional performance detail. We hope you will nd this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.

Quarter 3 of 2022 in Carmel-by-the-Sea saw sales prices remain high, down less than 2% from Q2. Uncertainty in the market led to just 28 sales throughout the quarter, the lowest since Q2 of 2020. Homes are also beginning to remain on the market longer with the average days on market moving up to 34, the highest of any quarter this year.

rough three quarters of 2022, total sales volume (dollars) is easily on track to surpass 2019 and all years prior, but is tracking well short of both Q3 2020 and Q3 2021.

CARMEL

a huge Q2 2022 that saw two sales over $10M and a median

price over $2.2M, Q3 in the Greater Carmel area came back to normal levels. e average sales price of $1.89M is right on par with that of both Q1 2022 and the last two quarters of 2021. e number of sales (15) fell to its lowest point since Q2 of 2020, in the heart of the COVID pandemic. Both average days on market and number of actives stayed low showing demand remains even with limited inventory.

VALLEY

Average sales prices remained high in Carmel Valley, with Q3 sporting the second highest amount on record ($1.96M). With prices continuing to climb the number of sales in the area has slowed down to just 47 for the quarter. Carmel Valley is seeing fewer and fewer homes sell for under $1M (15%), with 51% selling between $1M-2M and the remaining 33% over $2M. With 47 homes on the market to end the quarter and demand remaining relatively high, there are signs that Carmel Valley should continue to perform as a strong market moving forward.

BEACH

Pebble Beach had an interesting Q3 that differed from recent quarters. e number of sales went up compared to Q2 and Q1 of 2022. Average sales price in contrast, decreased, as we saw an uptick of $1M-2M properties sell this quarter. In fact, 11 of the 27 sales came in under $2M (41%), while for all of 2022 only 24% come in under this amount. is brought the average sales price under $4M for just the second time over the past seven quarters. While inventory has been tight over the last few quarters it seems to be a bit stronger now. Demand remains strong indicating a strong Q4 for Pebble Beach.

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

10 sales during the quarter in the Carmel Highlands and Big Sur area came divided on both the low end and high end of the pricing spectrum. Of the 10 sales, 2 were under $350K and 6 came in above $3M. While the average days on market was high at 82 days, this was primarily due to 2 sales that remained on market for 187 and 291 days before selling, which is not atypical for this region. With a strong Q4 2022, this area could reach 2020 and possibly 2021 in total sales volume.

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

Paci c Grove had a strong quarter compared to most other areas. e area was up in average sales price, units sold, and total volume versus last quarter. e price top in PG seems to have been met in Q1 of 2022, with the average sales price now oating just over $1.5M, up 1.6% from last quarter and up 3% from Q3 2021. 48 sales are the most we have seen in the area since Q3 of last year. With 25 active listings moving into Q4, Paci c Grove has a chance to replicate its strong Q3 next quarter. Given all of the volatile dynamics in real estate overall, this market is in a nice balance at this time.

SALES BY SEGMENT

SALES VOLUME

AVERAGE SELLING PRICE

The Monterey area saw a huge decrease in number of sales, landing at 55 compared with 70, 92, and 109 sales the three prior quarters. Even with fewer sales due to strong demand, average prices remain high at $1,288,004 down just 2% from Q2 2022. Total sales volume (dollars) is on pace to match 2020 and fall about 25% below the record year of 2021. is market, like most in our area, proves that while transactions and total sales dollars can decrease over 20% each, pricing remains strong.

SALES BY SEGMENT

SALES VOLUME