2021 Annual Report
Normal 2.0 Real estate in our market aligns with the national headlines about buyer frustration, low inventory, and rising prices. As the initial shutdowns eased in 2020, we saw a massive influx of buyers interested in our communities that increased last year and continues today. The reasons to own a home here have only intensified with work-from-home opportunities and changing priorities prompted by the pandemic. The reasons that buyers flock to the Monterey Peninsula are the same reasons sellers stray from listing their properties. Many second homes here have now shifted from occasional/weekend getaways to primary residences. Low inventory is a crucial driver of price increases and buyer frustration. And lack of inventory is impacting sellers who are hesitant to list their homes for fear of not finding a replacement property. At first, we were all asking, “how long with buyer demand last?”, and an equally important question became relevant in 2021; “When will Seller’s return to the market?” Average Sale Prices Up Limited inventory and high demand have driven the average sale price up in each market: Carmel-by-the-Sea, Monterey, Carmel Valley, and Marina are all up 12-15%. Pacific Grove and Seaside are up 22-27%, while Pebble Beach is up 36%.
Our 2021 Sales $58M+ representing 28 clients
4%
Shorter Time on the Market Properties spend far fewer days on the market, with Carmel Valley the only exception. Carmel-by-the-Sea Days on Market decreased 43%, Pebble Beach saw a 40% decrease and Marina a whopping 61% decrease from 30 days in 2020 to twelve in 2021!
The Shift That We See If continued demand and limited supply are the new normal for the foreseeable future, the other important insight is the quantifiable shift in the market at all levels. We discuss the change in each market writeup, and the data is striking. The floor of lower-priced homes in each of our markets moved up dramatically, leaving no properties available at price points accessible only a few years ago. Take a closer look into each market’s dynamics on the following pages. An aberration has become a genuine market shift.
on Malone & Dev
5%
4%
11%
9% 33% 24%
10%
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Monterey
Carmel
Pacific Grove
Carmel Valley
Seaside & Marina
Pebble Beach
Greater Monterey Peninsula
TABLE OF CONTENTS Carmel-by-the-Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Carmel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Carmel Valley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Pebble Beach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Monterey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Pacific Grove. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Seaside . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Marina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Carmel - by- the-Sea Average sales price was up year over year, and quarter over quarter, while days on the market and the number of transactions continued to trend downward. Nothing about these ‘trends’ is news given the limited inventory. The real story is that sales under $1,000,000 evaporated in 2021. Let that sink in… Zero homes under $1,000,000 sold in all of 2021. The least expensive property to sell in 2021 was at Santa Rita & 1st Ave. A two-bedroom, one-bathroom, 885 sq foot tear down on a 4,000 square foot lot. The asking price was $1,299,000 (the lowest list price of 2021). It sold for $1,100,000 after 26 days on market. Five years ago, in 2017, 11% of the market, or 13 sales, sold for under $1,000,000. Conversely, the most expensive band of homes has continued to increase. In 2017 there was one sale in Carmel-by-the-Sea over $5,000,000, only 1% of sales that year. In 2021, there were eight sales over $5,000,000 or 11% of the market. We believe that this trend will continue, given the limited inventory available.
2
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$229M
Total $ Sales
(28%)
$49M
($90M)
(53%)
70
Units Sold (40%)
13 (62%)
(47 Units)
30
Days on Market (40%)
(20 Days)
20%
(21 Units)
22 (33%)
$3.3M
Average Sales Price
($55M)
(11 Days)
$3.8M
$545K
23%
$712K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
130 120 110 100
$15.5M $15.5M
# OF SALES
90 80
$11.2M
70 60
$6.6M $6.6M
$7.7M $7.7M
$6.8M $6.8M
50
$11.2M
40
$1.1M
30
$860K $860K
20 10
$700K $700K
<$1M
$799K $799K
$795K $795K
$1M-2M
$2M-3M
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
$3M-5M LOWEST SALES PRICE
$5M+
zero sales under $1m in 2021!!
SP: $3.5M, Sold in Q4 2021 Represented Buyer 3 Bedrooms, 3 Bath, 1,671 sq ft, 4,000 sq ft lot 5 Blocks to the beach with ocean views
Carmel As with our other markets, Carmel has seen steady growth in prices, with the average sales price climbing to just over $3,000,000, up 17% from 2020. Like Carmel-by-the-Sea, price bands have also shifted upward. Homes below $1,000,000 represented 19% of the market, 36 sales, five years ago. In 2021 there were only ten sales under $1,000,000—only 3% of sales. These under $1,000,000 properties were more remote, smaller, and often came with significant challenges based on location, historic significance, road noise, etc. The lowest sale in 2021 was an original condition cabin built in the early ‘60s. The two-bedroom, one-and one-half bathroom house is located 30 minutes from downtown Carmel in Palo Colorado Canyon. It can only be reached by a footbridge from the dirt road. The home was listed for, and sold at $679,000. The most expensive price band increased in market share from 6%, 11 sales in 2017, to an impressive 42 sales, 14% in 2021. While the “floor” and “ceiling” of prices have shifted up, the sweet spot for Carmel homes remains between $1,000,000 and $5,000,000. In 2017 76% of sales were in that range, increasing to 82% of sales in 2021.
4
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$822M
$225M
Total $ Sales
30%
$206M
5%
291
Units Sold 11%
69
43%
41 34 Days
44%
$3.0M
Average Sales Price
17%
13 Units
16%
30 Units
45
Days on Market
$11M
33 Days
$3.3M
$440K
13%
$380K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
130
$23.3M
120
$16.1M
110
$14M
100
# OF SALES
90
$8.5M
$9M
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
$580K
$500K
$463K
$775K
$679K
10
<$1M
$1M-2M
$2M-3M
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
$3M-5M
$5M+
LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $3.695M, Sold in Q3 Represented Buyer & Seller 3 Beds, 3 Baths, 2,443 sq ft on a 6,000 sq ft lot 5 blocks to Carmel Beach, Ocean Views of River Beach and Point Lobos
Carmel Valley The average sale price in Carmel Valley increased to just over $1,800,000 in 2021, up 13% from 2020. Sales volume and units sold also increased, however, unlike the other markets across the Monterey Peninsula, Carmel Valley saw a slight increase in days on market, to an average of 57 days. But, don’t let this general increase fool you; 46% of all sales sold in 30 days or less! As is true elsewhere, price bands continued to shifted upwards. In 2017 55% of sales were for properties under $1,000,000. That percentage fell to only 16% in 2021, down from fifty homes in 2017 to twenty last year. Five years ago, in 2017, only 4% of the homes sold for over $2,000,000. The following year it was 10% then, 12%, 19%, and landed at 30% of the market in 2021. Carmel Valley has a varied inventory of housing. Properties range from vineyard estates to small ‘off the grid’ cabins. While there are still homes at lower price points, we’re seeing price bands move into ranges more similar to Carmel pre-pandemic. Sales over $3M 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2019 (Pre-Pandemic) Carmel <$1M
6
$1M-2M
2021 Carmel Valley $2M-3M
$3M-5M
$5.5M
In 2021, the least expensive sale was a three bedroom, one-and one-half bathroom home located 30 minutes east of Carmel Valley Village. The home offered no power, or city water. It was listed for $515,000 and sold at $465,000.
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$221M
Total $ Sales
28%
$78M
$48M
65%
122
Units Sold 13%
40
4%
48 2 Days
50%
$1.8M
Average Sales Price
13%
10 Units
33%
14 Units
57
Days on Market
$31M
16 Days
$2.0M
$212K
24%
$375K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT* 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 $17.1M
130 120 110 100
$8.8M
# OF SALES
90 80
$4.8M
70
$4M
60 50
$2.8M
40 30 20 10
$338K
$320K
<$1M
$465K
$430K
$2M-3M
*
$285K
$2M-3M
$3M-5M
$5M
m+. home sales over. $3 was ket ar m e th of In 2021, over 10% e sales over $3m. om h no e wer e er th Five years ago
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $2.39M, Sold in Q3 Represented Buyer 5 Beds, 4 Baths, 4,006 sq ft on 2.8 acres Stunning views in the exclusive Miramonte neighborhood
Pebble Beach The Pebble Beach market remains highly competitive, reflecting the demand for privacy, larger lots, and less density. The average sales price had tremendous gains over 2020 while the number of units sold and days on the market decreased. The average sales price increased over $1,250,000 year over year to $4,734,000 in 2021, that’s a 36% increase from last year. The average sales price for Q4 2021 hit $4,218,000, up 24% from Q4 2020. The price bands of available properties continued their shift upwards. The price floor in Pebble Beach, as elsewhere, moved above one million dollars. In 2017 16 homes sold for under $1,000,000. Those homes represented 13% of the market that year. In 2021 there were no sales under $1,000,000; none. As sales under $1,000,000 disappeared, homes selling over $10,000,000 have steadily increased as a percentage of sales. In 2017, one home sold for over $10,000,000 in Pebble Beach, about 1% of sales that year. In 2021, there were 13 sales over $10,000,000, an increase to 10% of homes sold. In 2021 we worked for clients across the spectrum; A long time client of ours who represented one of the top 10 sales for the year, along with an investor client who bought the least expensive home in Pebble Beach at $1,200,000. Sales over $3M 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017
8
2018
2019
2020
in which was the first year Fun Fact: 2021 er $3 e homes sold for ov exactly half of th
2021
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$639M
Total $ Sales
31%
$152M
$153M
(16%)
135
Units Sold
(4%)
36
(40%)
45 (31 Days)
(12%)
$4.7M
Average Sales Price
36%
(17) Units
(32%)
(5 Units)
46
Days on Market
($28M)
(6 Days)
$4.2M
$1.3M
24%
$818K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 $33.8M
130 120 110
$28M
$28M
$24M
100
# OF SALES
90 80
$12.5M
70 60 50
$1.2M
40
$980K
30 20
$830K
$730K
$825K
10
<$1M
$2M-3M
$2M-3M
$3M-5M
$5M
$10M+
year!! es price since last sal e ag er av in e $1m+ increas
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
LOWEST SALES PRICE
$11M, Sold in Q2 Represented Buyer 6 Beds, 4.5 Baths, 5,8866 sq ft on 1.309 acres Steps from Pebble Beach Lodge, views of the fairways and a stone’s throw from Casa Palmero, The Beach & Tennis Club & Stillwater Cove
Monterey The average sales price in Monterey increased over $155,000 from 2020, landing at $1,412,000 for 2021. Five years ago, in 2017, the average sales price was just over $1,000,0000. As the average sales price increased, it’s no surprise that the average days on market decreased to 31 days for 2021 as 75% of the sales for the year sold in 30 days or less! Just as we’ve seen with the other markets across the Monterey Peninsula, price bands have continued to shift upwards. Five years ago, 48% of the market, 111 sales, sold for under $800,000. In 2021, only 11%, 31 sales, sold for under $800,000. The least expensive property to sell was a three-bedroom, two bathroom affordable housing unit sold by the City of Monterey. Access to this sale was only possible through a city sponsored wait-list. The home sold for $438,000. Homes selling over $3,000,000 shifted from 2%, 5 sales, in 2017 to 6%, 18 sales, in 2021. While the upper and lower sales bands have moved upward, sales between $800,000 to $1,000,000 has continued to represent about 25% of the market over the last five years.
10
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$394M
Total $ Sales
39%
$118M
$111M
31%
279
Units Sold 24%
77 13%
54 Units
31
Days on Market (32%)
12%
9 Units
36 (14 Days)
26%
$1.4M
Average Sales Price
$28M
7 Days
$1.5M
$156K
16%
$210K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
130 120
$33.8M
110 100
# OF SALES
90
$28M
$28M
80
$24M
70 60 50 40
$12.5M
30 20 10
$830K
$730K
<$1M
$825K
$2M-3M
$2M-3M
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
$1.2M
$980K
$3M-5M
$5M
$10M+
2021! $1m disappeared in der un es sal * LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $1.84M, Sold in Q3 Represented Seller 4 Beds, 3 Baths, 2,374 sq ft, 8,974 sq ft lot Designer renovated in the desirable Deer Flats neighborhood. Minutes to HWY 68 and the distinguished Del Monte Golf Course.
Pacific Grove The average sales price in Pacific Grove increased to just over $1,500,000 for 2021. Pacific Grove had the second largest increase in average sales price out of the eight markets that we track, a 27% increase vs 36% in Pebble Beach. Five years ago, the average sales price was just under $1,040,000. That’s a 45% increase in average sales price over the last five years! Pacific Grove is no exception when it comes to the upward shift in sales price bands. Five years ago, 34% of the market, 54 sales, sold for under $800,000. In 2021, only 6%, 13 sales, sold for under $800,000. The least expensive property to sell was a 93 year old, 730 square foot duplex with no foundation. After only 21 days on the market, the property sold for $650,000. On the other end of the spectrum, homes selling over $3,000,000 shifted from 1%, 2 sales, in 2017 to 3%, 7 sales, in 2021. And, although it hasn’t happened yet, it appears that the Pacific Grove market may be approaching a 50/50 split amongst sales above / below $1,500,000. Sales Split 120% 100% 80%
85%
84%
86%
82%
59%
15%
16%
14%
18%
41%
60% 40% 20% 0%
Over $1.5M
12
Under $1.5M
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$300M
Total $ Sales
37%
$71M
$81.9M
(8%)
201
Units Sold 8%
44 (27%)
15 Units
27
Days on Market (18%)
27%
(16 Units)
29 (6 Days)
3%
$1.5M
Average Sales Price
($6M)
1 Day
$1.6M
$3.9K
26%
$326K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
80 70
# OF SALES
60
$5.8M $5.8M
50
$4.5M
$3.88M
$3.5M
40 30
$650K
20
$525K $451K
10
$435K
315K
* sales under $800k was only 6% of <$800K
$800K-$1M
$1M-$1.5M
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
$1.5-$2M
the market in 20 21
Featured Property:
$2M-$3M
$3M+
LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $1.55M, Sold Q4 Represented Seller 4 Bed 2 Bath Main House + 1 Bed 1 Bath apt. 2,309 sq ft on a 19,000 sq ft lot Diamond in the rough in sought-after Asilomar neighborhood. 1/2 mile to Asilomar beach and less than a mile to downtown Pacific Grove.
Seaside The average sales price in Seaside has continued to increase, landing at just over $750,000 for 2021. Seaside had the third largest year over year increase in average sales price out of the eight markets that we track, a 22% increase, vs the 27% increase in Pacific Grove and 36% increase in Pebble Beach. Average days on market was almost the lowest out of the markets that we track at an average of 18 days on the market, second only to Marina at an incredibly low 12 days on market. And, although the average sales price continues to climb, it appears that 2021 provided ample opportunity for buyers to enter the market, as available inventory was up 45% from 2021. 2021 marked the first year in which sales were recorded above $1,500,000 in Seaside. Four sales, or 2% of the market sold over $1,500,000 in 2021, and a total of 10% of the market sold over $1,000,000 in 2021. Five years ago, in 2017, there were no sales over $1,000,000. Conversely, sales under $600,000 have dramatically decreased over the years. Five years ago, 80% of the market, 155 sales, sold for under $600,000. In 2021, only 14%, 29 sales, sold for under $600,000. The least expensive property to sell was an 825 square foot unpermitted property in lower Seaside. It sold for $312,500 after only 15 days on the market.
14
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$152M
Total $ Sales
76%
$48M
$66M
76%
203
Units Sold 45%
64 52%
63 Units
18
Days on Market (25%)
22%
22 Units
21 (6 Days)
(28%)
$751K
Average Sales Price
$21M
(8 Days)
$742M
$134K
16%
$101K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
160
2018
2019
e 2018 first sal over $1m
150 140 130
2020
2021
120 110
# OF SALES
100 90 80
$1.5M
$7.7M $1.2M
70
$950K
60
$1M
$1M
50 40 30 20 10
$240K
<$600K
$345K
$260K
$245K
$600-800K
$800K-1M
$1M-1.5M
$312.5K
$1.5M-2M
er $1.5m ov d ol s es year where hom st ir f e th 2021:
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $841K, Sold Q3 Represented Buyer 4 Beds, 2.5 baths, 1,339 sq ft, 4,356 sq ft lot Updated home in Upper Seaside with peaks of Monterey Bay
Marina As with the other markets that we track, Marina saw an increase in the average sale price in 2021, increasing to $828,000, up $108,000, or 15% from 2020. This is to be expected given the demand in housing across the Monterey Peninsula. What was not expected was the shockingly low average days on market compared to 2020. There was a 61% decrease in days on market, with the average time on market being only twelve days! The price bands in Marina also saw material changes over the last five years. In 2017, 72% of sales were for properties under $600,000. That percentage fell to only 2% in 2021, down from 113 homes in 2017 to only four last year. Yes, you read that right: Only four homes sold under $600,000 in 2021 a 70% decrease from just five years ago In 2021, 12%, 23 homes sold over $1,000,000. Five years ago that number was zero. When looking more broadly, 2021 marks the first year in which a majority of the sales were over $800,000, and given the trends we believe it’s only a matter of time until sales under $600,000 completely disappear. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
2017
2018
% of Sales Under $800K
16
2019
2020
2021
% of Sales Over $800K
M A R K E T
O V E R V I E W
2021
Q4 ’21
Year over Year change
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
$108M
Total $ Sales 12%
$41M
$16.6M
4%
193
Units Sold (3%)
49 (6%)
(6 Units)
12
Days on Market (61%)
(18 Days)
15%
(3 Units)
13 (15 Days)
(53%)
$828K
Average Sales Price
$1.8M
$845K
$545K
11%
$83K
SALES PRICE BY SEGMENT 2017
2018
130 120 110
2019
2020
e 2019 first sal m over $1
2021
100
# OF SALES
90 80
$1.4M
70 60 50
$1.2M
$1M
$7.7M $977K $899K
40 30 20 10
$390K
$450K
$415K
<$600K
$600-800K
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
Featured Property:
$470K
$800K-1M
$519K
12% of sales 1 02 over $1m in 2
$1M-1.5M
LOWEST SALES PRICE
SP: $935K, Sold in Q2 Represented Buyer in 1031 exchange 4 Beds, 2.5 baths, 1,948 sq ft, 3,286 sq ft lot Located in the highly desirable Sea Haven community with a grassy park right outside.
Malone Hodges \ 831.601.4740 Malone@MaloneHodges.com
Devon Meeker \ 650.759.4193 Devon@MaloneHodges.com
DRE#01471087
DRE#02074131