Q3 Market Report 2022
It’s likely not the first time you’ve heard that we live in a bubble here on The Monterey Peninsula. That bubble has protected us and softened many of the disruptions that have so adversely affected other areas across our nation. This phenomenon is holding true as it relates to the real estate market as well.
Concern over the housing market has become daily news as the downturn in the number of sales, dollar volume, and home prices is significant in most markets across the country. With an exceptional quality of life here, the desire to live on The Peninsula remains very high. We have a limited inventory of homes for sale, and many of our markets are less impacted by rising interest rates. While our market is normalizing and performing behind some of the record numbers we delivered in 2021, so far we are not experiencing the dramatic reduction in real estate results seen in other markets.
Of the nine markets we track across The Monterey Peninsula, the number of home sales is down 10% quarter over quarter and 36% compared to Q3 of 2021, while total volume is down 20% and 29%, respectively. As the decline is relative compared to most markets across the US, the bigger news on The Monterey Peninsula is that pricing is holding strong. While all nine of the markets we track experienced a slight decrease in the average sales price compared to last quarter, five of those markets experienced an average 8% increase in sales price this year compared to Q3 2021 while the remaining four saw a mild (5%) decrease compared to Q3 2021.
While pricing holds strong, we are continuing to see volatility in other real estate aspects. We are tracking all variables in order to provide the data you need to make informed buying and/or selling decisions.
The following report breaks out all nine of the markets we track in more detail.
As always, please contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, your family, or friends, with real estate plans in our marketplace.
Q3 2022
Malone&Devon
FEATURED LISTING Represented Seller Highest Q3 sale in Corral de Tierra • Sold 6% above the list price • 40 Acres • 3,069 square foot, twobedroom, 2.5-bathroom main house • 1,187 sq. ft. two-bedroom, one-bath caretakers house • Cottage • Solar heated pool • 5 pastures, 6 shelters and sand arena • 1,000 square foot barn with 3 stalls, office, and tack room
TABLE OF CONTENTS Carmel-by-the-Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Carmel ...............................................4 Carmel Valley ........................................6 Pebble Beach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Monterey ........................................... 10
Pacific Grove . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Seaside ............................................. 14 Marina .............................................. 16 Corral & San Benancio .............................. 18
Carmel-by-the-Sea
The market in Carmel-by-the-Sea saw a 6% dip in the average sales price from last quarter, but only 1% from the third quarter of 2021, landing just over $3,239,000.
Of the twenty-five homes sold this quarter, ten were sold at or above the asking price with an average of 14 days on market, while the remaining 15 sales had an average of 44 days on market.
Average days on market also returned to the pre-pandemic ‘normal’ of 30 days or more, at an average of 32 days compared to the all-time low of just eight days last quarter, and 17 days on market in Q3 of 2021.
Sales prices compared to their asking price also returned to their ‘normal’ levels, just shy of 100%. This quarter, the average sale to list price was 97% compared to 103% last quarter and 100% in Q3 of 2021.
While the average sale to list price fell, home demand & prices remains steady. Total sales volume increased 2% from last quarter and is down only 11% from Q3 of 2021. Homes prices remained strong as 72% of home sales were above $2M compared to 48% last quarter, and 68% in Q3 2021, showing that Carmel-by-the-Sea continues to hold its value despite a normalizing market.
2 $5M+ 4 $1M-$2M 7 $3M-$5M 7 $2M-$3M 7 SALES BY SEGMENT 25 TOTAL SALES
$9,995,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $1,200,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 97% Average sale to list price 7 Price reductions compared to 9 in Q2 compared to 4 in Q3 ‘21 1 Transaction fell through compared to 5 in Q2 compared to 1 in Q3 ‘21 $3,069,237$3,239,006 $3,265,188 $3,639,679 $3,561,663 Q3 ‘22Q2 ‘21 MEDIAN Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $3,453,016 Q2 ‘22 AVERAGE SALES PRICE $5M $4M $3M $2M $1M Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 25 $3,239,006 32 $80,975,144 vs Q2 ‘22 9% vs Q3 ’21 11% vs Q2 ‘22 -6% vs Q3 ’21 -1% vs Q2 ‘22 284% vs Q3 ’21 86% vs Q2 ‘22 2% vs Q3 ’21 -11% OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Greater Carmel
In-line with expectations around our normalizing market, Carmel’s average sales price dropped 16% from last quarter, and 5% compared to Q3 2021, but is up 20% when compared to the 2020 average of $2,505,685, showing just how strong the Carmel housing market truly is.
As the market stabilizes, days on market and the average sale to list price ratio ticked upwards compared to previous quarters, but again, are down compared to 2020 levels.
Well-priced homes continue to sell quickly. Of the 39 homes sold this quarter, 17, or 44% of them sold at or above the list price with an average of just 21 days on market. The remaining 22 homes, or 56%, sold within an average of 54 days on market.
Overall, the average days on market landed at 40 days compared to 31 days last quarter and is almost on-par with the 41 days on market we saw in Q3 of 2021.
The overall average sales price dropped to 97% this quarter, compared to 100% last quarter and 99% in Q3 2021, and is slightly up from the 2020 average of 96%, further showing the strength of the market.
Despite strong prices, the number of home sales did decrease, landing at 39 total sales - the lowest we’ve seen since Q2 of 2022. This is compared to 51 sales last quarter and 58 in Q3 of 2021.
4 SALES BY SEGMENT $1M$2M 16 $2M-$3M 9 $3M$5M 9 $5M+ 5 39 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 39 $2,996,962 40 $116,881,500 vs Q2 ‘22 -24% vs Q3 ’21 -33% vs Q2 ‘22 -16% vs Q3 ’21 -5% vs Q2 ‘22 +27% vs Q3 ’21 -4% vs Q2 ‘22 -36% vs Q3 ’21 -36% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $2,615,765 $3,243,377 $3,144,235 $3,147,734 $3,570,464 Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $2,996,962 Q2 ‘22 Q3 ‘22 $4M $3.5M $3M $2.5M $2M $1M MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $12,740,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $1,150,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 97% Average sale to list price 26 Price reductions compared to 37 in Q2 compared to 21 in Q3 ‘21 7 Transactions fell through compared to 18 in Q2 compared to 19 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
CarmelValley
Average sales prices remained high with Q3 sporting the second highest amount on record at $2,032,500, just 4% below last quarter, and up 4% from Q3 of 2021.
With climbing home prices, the number of home sales this quarter fell to a record low of 19, down seven sales from last quarter and two from Q3 2021.
Despite such strong home sales, days on market has slowed to 58 days, up 41% or 17 days from last quarter and up 5%, or 3 days form Q3 of 2021.
The sale to list price ratio fell to 96% this quarter, the lowest on The Monterey Peninsula, which is unexpected given the strong demand in the Carmel Valley market. When looking closer, there were seven sales at or above list price this quarter and twelve sales below list. Of those twelve, five homes sold below 90% of their list price, dragging the overall sale to list price ratio down.
Sale segments remain somewhat steady, with sales between $1- $2 Million remaining the ‘bread and butter’ of the market, with 68% of the sales, compared to 42% last quarter, and 57% of the market in Q3 of 2021. While this segment remains steady, sales below $1M fell to just 5% this quarter – the lowest amount recorded (along with Q3 of 2021).
6 $5M+ 1 <$1M 1 $1M-$2M 13 $3M-$5M 2 $2M-$3M 2 SALES BY SEGMENT 19 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 19 $2,032,500 58 $38,617,500 vs Q2 ‘22 -27% vs Q3 ’21 -10% vs Q2 ‘22 -4% vs Q3 ’21 +4% vs Q2 ‘22 +41% vs Q3 ’21 +5% vs Q2 ‘22 -30% vs Q3 ’21 -6% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $1,713,222$2,032,500 $1,955,431 $1,955,287 $1,808,019 Q3 ‘22Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $2,114,212 Q2 ‘22 $2M $1.75M $1.5M $1.25M $1M 0 MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $7,500,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $950,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 96% Average sale to list price 21 Price reductions compared to 14 in Q2 compared to 15 in Q3 ‘21 5 Transactions fell through compared to 8 in Q2 compared to 7 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Pebble Beach
The Pebble Beach average sales price dropped close to $1M, or 18% compared to last quarter, and is down close to $500K, or 10% from Q3 2021. While these comparisons are down, the average sales price is up over $1.2M, or 37% when compared to the 2020 average sales price.
Days on market dropped to an all-time low of 30 days. Of the 19 homes sold this quarter, 11, or 58% sold at or above the list price with an average of just 24 days on market. This average included one outlier, whose days on market skewed the average upwards. Without that home, the average days on market for homes sold at or above list price was just 9 days, showing just how strong the demand for Pebble Beach is. The remaining 8 homes, or 42%, sold within an average of 37 days on market.
While buyers are moving quickly for well-priced homes, we did see a return in buyers’ negotiations as the average sales to list price dropped to 98% this quarter compared to 103% last quarter, and 101% in Q3 2021. Despite these ‘drops’ the 98% sales to list price was still up from the 96% average we saw in 2020.
Despite strong buyer demand, the number of home sales dropped to 19, down three from last quarter and up three from Q3 of 2021. The drop is likely linked to the decrease in new listings as there were only 27 this quarter compared to 28 last quarter and 40 in Q3 of 2021. The average in 2020 was 43. While the market begins to ‘normalize’, the stats show just how strong the demand for living in Pebble Beach is.
8 $10M+ 1 $5M$10M 7 $3M-$5M 1 $1M-$2M 6 $2M-$3M 4 SALES BY SEGMENT 19 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 19 $4,513,833 30 $85,762,820 vs Q2 ‘22 +19% vs Q3 ’21 -14% vs Q2 ‘22 -18% vs Q3 ’21 -10% vs Q2 ‘22 +41% vs Q3 ’21 +5% vs Q2 ‘22 -30% vs Q3 ’21 -6% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $5,579,927$4,513,833 $5,005,805 $4,217,804 $8,734,338 $5,512,513 Q3 ‘21Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 Q2 ‘22 $10M $8M $6M $4M $2M 0 MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $12,000,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $1,550,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 98% Average sale to list price 15 Price reductions compared to 14 in Q2 compared to 12 in Q3 ‘21 4 Transactions fell through compared to 2 in Q2 compared to 3 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Monterey
The Monterey average sales price decreased by over $130K this quarter, or 8% to just shy of $1.5M, and is up over $135K, or 10% compared to Q3 of 2021.
While the average sales price dropped relative to last quarter, the average sale to list price during the quarter stayed strong at 101%, with 66% of sales exchanging at or above list price – the highest percent of sales above list price across the nine markets that we track.
Furthermore, sales by segment continued to show strength as sales over $2M represented 17% of the market compared to 23% last quarter and 13% in Q3 of 2021. The average in this segment during 2020 was just 7%. Home sales between $1M - $1.5M continues to be the livelihood of the Monterey market representing 46% of sales this quarter compared to 48% last quarter and 34% in Q3 of 2021. In 2020, the average was 24% of the market.
Despite strong prices, the number of homes sold dropped to just 35 this quarter with new listings also dropping to an all-time low of 48. This is compared to the 61 new listings last quarter, and the all-time high of 91 new listings in Q3 of 2021.
This market, like most in our area, proves that while the number of transactions decreases, pricing remains strong.
10 $2M-$3M 4 $3M+ 2 <$800K 3 $800K$1M 5 $1M-$1.5M 16 $1.5M$2M 5 SALES BY SEGMENT 35 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 35 $1,463,760 29 $51,231,600 vs Q2 ‘22 -27% vs Q3 ’21 -56% vs Q2 ‘22 -8% vs Q3 ’21 +10% vs Q2 ‘22 -14% vs Q3 ’21 +27% vs Q2 ‘22 -33% vs Q3 ’21 -52% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $1,585,500$1,463,760 $1,328,351 $1,529,038 $1,477,908 Q3 ‘21Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $1,596,888 Q2 ‘22 $2M 1.75M $1.5M $1.25M $1M MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $3,850,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $680,050 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 101% Average sale to list price 25 Price reductions compared to 15 in Q2 compared to 18 in Q3 ‘21 4 Transactions fell through compared to 6 in Q2 compared to 18 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Pacific Grove
Pacific Grove had the strongest quarter across the nine markets that we track as the average sales price remained unchanged from last quarter while all other markets saw a drop. The average sales price was just shy of $1.64M a 6% increase from Q3 2021 and is up an incredible 42% compared to the average of 2020.
The average sales to list price ratio dropped to 99% this quarter compared to 105% last quarter and 104% in Q3 of 2021 as buyers regained their footing. Nineteen of the 42 sales, or 45% sold at or above list price with the remaining 23 sales averaging 95% of the sales price.
With 42 sales this quarter, this is the most we’ve seen throughout 2022, but is down from the all-time high of 80 sales in Q3 2021.
Days on Market also returned to ‘normal’ levels landing at 22 days this quarter compared to nine last quarter (the record low) and 26 in Q3 of 2021.
With 25 active listings moving into Q4, Pacific Grove is positioned to have another strong quarter to end out the year.
12 $3M+ 2 <$800K 2 $800K$1M 4 $1M$1.5M 15 $1.5M$2M 16 $2M-$3M 3 SALES BY SEGMENT 42 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 42 $1,636,756 22 $68,743,754 vs Q2 ‘22 +17 vs Q3 ’21 -48% vs Q2 ‘22 -0% vs Q3 ’21 +6% vs Q2 ‘22 +127% vs Q3 ’21 -17% vs Q2 ‘22 +16% vs Q3 ’21 -21% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $1,405,433 $1,602,634 $1,544,266$1,636,756 $1,727,769 Q3 ‘21Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $1,643,034 Q2 ‘22 $2M 1.75M $1.5M $1.25M $1M MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $6,650,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $695,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 99% Average sale to list price 23 Price reductions compared to 12 in Q2 compared to 9 in Q3 ‘21 5 Transactions fell through compared to 2 in Q2 compared to 7 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Seaside
After an incredibly strong Q2, the housing market in Seaside slowed in the third quarter. As interest rates rise, and a fear of a greater recession looms, the lower priced Seaside market saw a pullback in both number of sales and average sales price, while the days on market set a new high.
The average sales price fell almost $90k or 10% to just over $777K this quarter, and is down close to $29K, or 4% from Q3 2021. The average sales to list price also fell this quarter, landing at 99% compared 104% last quarter and 102% in Q3 of 2021 while price drops also reached a record high of 25.
Days on Market jumped from 14 days last quarter up to 37 days – the highest we’ve seen since pre-2020.
While overall sales dropped, sales by segment did show some upward movement in the highest price band due to the two sales at The Enclave; the Shea home development between Bayonet and Black Horse golf courses. Despite those sales, the statistics suggest that buyers have regained some traction in the market, as conservatism sets in.
14 $600K$800K 20 $800K$1M 11 $1M-$1.5M 1 $1.5M-$2M 2 <$600K 6 SALES BY SEGMENT 40 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 40 $777,463 37 $31,098,510 vs Q2 ‘22 -25% vs Q3 ’21 -33% vs Q2 ‘22 -10% vs Q3 ’21 -4% vs Q2 ‘22 +167% vs Q3 ’21 +150% vs Q2 ‘22 -32% vs Q3 ’21 -36% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $724,448$777,463 $806,432 $741,894 $786,625 Q3 ‘21Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $866,705 Q1 ‘22 $1M $900K $800K $700K $600K $<500K MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $1,756,910 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $416,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 99% Average sale to list price 25 Price reductions compared to 21 in Q2 compared to 15 in Q3 ‘21 10 Transactions fell through compared to 6 in Q2 compared to 15 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
MarinaMarina saw a solid Q3 with numbers little changed from last quarter.
Average sales price settled just below $925,000 down 4% from Q2 and up 7% from Q3 2021, while being up 37% from the average sale price in 2020.
The list to sales price ratio for the quarter was 100%, like the 101% and 102% we saw in Q2’22 and Q3’21, respectively. Twenty one of the 37 sales, or 60% traded at or above list price – the second highest across the nine markets that we track. The remaining 16 sales had a sale to list price of 96%.
Days on Market landed at 31 days this quarter, up 11 from last quarter and 19 from Q3 of 2021 but is on-par with the average of 32 days on market that we saw in 2020.
Sales by segment also continued to show strength as 81% of the sales traded between $800,000- $1,500,000. This is compared to 74% of the sales in this segment last quarter and the 61% of sales in this segment in Q3 of 2021. The average in this segment during 2020 was just 8%, showing the incredible growth that Marina has experienced in the last few years.
With 33 homes active at the end of the quarter, Marina is positioned to have another strong quarter to end out the year.
16 <$600K$800K 6 $800K-$1M 20 $1M+ 10 <$600K 1 SALES BY SEGMENT 37 TOTAL SALES
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 37 $924,486 31 $34,205,999 vs Q2 ‘22 +6% vs Q3 ’21 -24% vs Q2 ‘22 -4% vs Q3 ’21 +7% vs Q2 ‘22 +57% vs Q3 ’21 +159% vs Q2 ‘22 -42% vs Q3 ’21 -19% Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $878,553$924,486 $862,995 $845,416 $869,827 Q3 ‘21Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $958,275 Q2 ‘22 $1M $900K $800K $700K $600K $<500K MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $1,459,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $565,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 100% Average sale to list price 31 Price reductions compared to 22 in Q2 compared to 7 in Q3 ‘21 7 Transactions fell through compared to 5 in Q2 compared to 7 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Corral & San Benancio
Corral & San Benancio had another strong quarter with the average sales price landing just over $1.315M, a 3% drop from last quarter, but up 14% from Q3 2021.
The average sales to list price ratio was 99% this quarter, down from 102% last quarter and the 100% we saw in Q3 of 2021. Twelve of the 27 sales, or 44% sold at or above list price with the remaining 23 sales averaging 96% of their sales price.
While sales prices remained steady, the number of sales has begun to soften. Sales were up two units when compared to last quarter, but are down 20, or 43% from Q3 2021. The number of new listings was also down 11, or 20% from last quarter, and is down 22 or 34% when compared to Q3 2021.
Days on Market has crept back towards ‘normal’ levels landing at 22 days this quarter compared to 12 last quarter (the record low) and 16 in Q3 of 2021. Average days on market during 2020 was 50 days, showing the strength of the market, and willingness for buyers to move quickly today.
18 $600K$800K 2 $800K$1M 8 $1M-$1.5M 12 $1.5-$2M 1 $2M+ 4 SALES BY SEGMENT 27 TOTAL SALES
-34%
Homes Sold Average Sales Price Days on Market Total $ Sales 27 $1,317,302 22 $35,567,150 vs Q2 ‘22 +8% vs Q3 ’21 -43% vs Q2 ‘22 -3% vs Q3 ’21 +14% vs Q2 ‘22 +80% vs Q3 ’21 +34% vs Q2 ‘22 +4% vs Q3 ’21
Q3 ‘22 MARKET OVERVIEW $1,215,630 $1,153,129 $1,366,958 $1,425,484 $1,363,120 Q2 ‘21 Q3 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q1 ‘22 $1,317,302 Q2 ‘22 Q3 ‘22 $1.5M $1.4M $1.3M $1.2M $1.1M <$1M MEDIANAVERAGE SALES PRICE AVERAGE VS. MEDIAN $3,550,000 Highest Q3 2022 Sale $655,000 Lowest Q3 2022 sale 99% Average sale to list price 18 Price reductions compared to 12 in Q2 compared to 22 in Q3 ‘21 6 Transactions fell through compared to 8 in Q2 compared to 7 in Q3 ‘21 OTHER NUMBERS OF NOTE
Malone Hodges \ 831.601.4740
Malone@MaloneHodges.com
DRE#01471087
Devon Meeker \ 650.759.4193 Devon@MaloneHodges.com
DRE#02074131
