Harlan Green: Economic VOICE

Housing Authority of the City of Santa Barbara Plans 30 New Affordable Units on Cota Street For Those Experiencing Homelessness A May 14th, 2020 article in the Los Angeles Times reports that “With the coronavirusinduced shock to the economy crippling businesses of all sizes and leaving millions of Americans out of work, homelessness in the United States could grow as much as 45 percent in a year.” The data trend, which comes from research conducted by Dr. Brendan O’Flaherty, a professor of economics at Columbia University, is mirrored in our community. According to the most recent Point-in-Time count completed in January 2020, the study found 1,897 homeless residents countywide, with 914 (48 percent) living in the City of Santa Barbara. The

ATTACHMENT 2

Artist rendering of the 30-unit Housing Authority building planned for 116 Cota Street in downtown Santa Barbara.

The Cota Street property will feature:

A walkable downtown location that is close to essential services and other amenities. A strong “good neighbor” policy, and a proven track record with permanent supportive housing developments.

Project-based rental assistance to provide affordable rent to every resident. On-site supportive services to provide ongoing case management and independent living skills. A full-time on-site manager to oversee the apartment complex. A community room for resident programs, group activities, and support groups. Controlled access points for entering and exiting the property. No parking demand for residents, reducing the traffic impact of the area. Homes next to Veracruz Park which will provide community oversight of the recreational area.

Courtesy Photo chronically homeless in the county rose from 423 to 614, a 45 percent increase. While the nation continues to grapple with adequately addressing this issue, the Housing Authority of the City of Santa Barbara (HACSB) is moving forward with plans to build new housing specifically to address the needs of homeless individuals. The project exemplifies the agency’s mission to create safe, affordable, and quality housing opportunities for families and individuals while promoting self-sufficiency and neighborhood revitalization.

While the site, located at 116 Cota Street, is currently approved as an AUD project for 15 market rate rental units, HACSB plans to convert the development to provide 30 affordable housing units.

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Robert Adams • Robert@EarthKnower.com Harlan Green • editor@populareconomics.com Beverley Jackson • c/o editor@voicesb.com Richard Jarrette • c/o editor@voicesb.com Amanda & Richard Payatt • foodwinetwosome@cox.net Sigrid Toye • Itssigrid@gmail.com

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All advertising in this publication is subject to the Federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, as amended, which makes it illegal to advertise “any preference, limitation, or discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin, or intention to make any such preference, limitation, or discrimination.”

This publication will not knowingly accept any advertising which is in violation of this law. Our readers are hereby informed that all dwellings advertised in this publication are available on an equal opportunity basis. The opinions and statements contained in advertising or elsewhere in this publication are those of the authors of such opinions and are not necessarily those of the publishers. The property consists of two parcels with a combined total of approximately 11,000 square feet. It is a mostly flat parcel and sits just to the east of the shopping center on the corner of Cota and Anacapa Streets that houses Dune Coffee Roasters (formerly The French Press). The property sits across the street from the current Cota Street commuter parking lot. The HACSB plan for the lot will not change the mass or exterior design of the building. The Housing Authority recently received approval from the Santa Barbara City Council for the City to provide funding of $2.0 million for the $2.6 million acquisition of this property. The funding source from the City can only be used to support affordable housing efforts. In addition, the Housing Authority intends to apply for Low Income Housing Tax Credits to provide the bulk of the funding needed for the development.

Rob Fredericks, HACSB Executive Director/CEO shares that, “Despite our efforts, our nation, state and city continue to grapple with adequately addressing this issue affordable housing to those most in need and living without a home. We believe access to housing saves lives. For over 25 years, the Housing Authority has worked to eliminate homelessness in Santa Barbara, one home at a time. However, we cannot do it alone. The Housing Authority has collaborated with several local agencies to provide supportive living situations at housing developments such as El Carrillo, Artisan Court, Bradley Studios, and Johnson Court. The services are designed to build independent living and tenancy skills, and, connect people with community- based health care and treatment. We are excited to add the Cota Street project to our affordable housing portfolio.” www.hacsb.org

Economic VOICE

Have Home Sales Reached Bottom?

By Harlan Green / Special to VOICE

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO REPORT ON THE HOUSING MARKET? Because there is already a housing shortage (Forbes says up to 3.8 million unit shortfall to date), and they among others, are predicting a record wave of bankruptcies of large and small companies that could put even more than the 20 million unemployed already out of work.

Existing-home sales fell in May, marking a three-month decline in sales as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Each of the four major regions witnessed dips in month-over-month and year-over-year sales, with the Northeast experiencing the greatest month-over-month drop.

Total existing-home sales (www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales), completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slumped 9.7 percent from April to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million in May, according to the NAR. Overall, sales fell year-over-year, down 26.6 percent from a year ago (5.33 million in May 2019), which shows how deep this recession is.

The Pandemic itself is reaching “forest fire” proportions according to some experts with no end in sight, so it’s important to ask if existing-home sales have bottomed out their decline in sales in May.

Other indicators, including pending-home future sales, already down 22 percent in April, will be the first indicator that tells us whether sales will drop further and inventories increase from their current lows. It largely depends on how many workers are able to return to work, as I’ve said earlier.

The latest pending-home sales numbers reveal the greatest decline since NAR begin tracking such transactions in January 2001. However, chief economist Lawrence Yun expects that April will be the lowest point for pending contracts. We will know next Monday, June 29th, when May pending-home sales are released.

“Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lockdown and hence the cyclical low point,” said Yun. “Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.”

Yun is surprisingly sunny about the rest of this year. “Given the surprising resiliency of the housing market in the midst of the pandemic, the outlook for the remainder of the year has been upgraded for both home sales and prices, with home sales to decline by only eleven percent in 2020 with the median home price projected to increase by four percent,” Yun said. “In the prior forecast, sales were expected to fall by 15 percent and there was no increase in home price.”

I am not so optimistic, after seeing the ups and downs of housing in recent times. We are really in another Great Recession, at least, and the NY Times says more than 6,800 companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last year, and this year will almost certainly have more, according to NY Times reporter Mary Williams Walsh. The flood of petitions from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression could swamp the system, making it harder to save the companies that can be rescued, bankruptcy experts said per Walsh.

But rather than be the total pessimist, I can hope that we contain this ‘forest fire’ sooner rather than later, as well as the bankruptcy problem by continued government support that boosts spending in areas such as infrastructure, spending that has been too long postponed. It might even now have the attention of congress...

Harlan Green © 2020 Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen. Harlan Green has been the 16-year Editor-Publisher of PopularEconomics.com, a weekly syndicated financial wire service. He writes a Popular Economics Weekly Blog. He is an economic forecaster and teacher of real estate finance with 30-years experience as a banker and mortgage broker. To reach Harlan call (805)452-7696 or email editor@populareconomics.com