With official data only
Update: 25 September, 2020
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Daily Cases Chart published by the Government of Spain Source: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Disclaimer: This research is a preliminary study. During a pandemic, any data can be inaccurate. The author does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the data and calculaMons, his own or those from third parMes, nor for the express or implicit recommendaMons. Acknowledgements: To my family, the only party with whom I have had a true conict of interest regarding this research, because of the aQenMon Mme I have stolen from them.
1
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: DAILY CASES 7 days Moving Average 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
0
Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22
1000
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
2
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: DAILY DEATHS 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
Sept 22
Sept 19
Sept 16
Sept 13
Sept 7
Sept 10
Sept 4
Sept 1
Aug 29
Aug 26
Aug 23
Aug 20
Aug 17
Aug 14
Aug 8
Aug 11
Aug 5
Aug 2
Jul 30
Jul 27
Jul 24
Jul 21
Jul 18
Jul 15
Jul 9
Jul 12
Jul 6
Jul 3
Jun 30
Jun 27
Jun 24
Jun 21
Jun 18
Jun 15
Jun 9
Jun 12
Jun 6
Jun 3
May 31
May 28
May 25
May 22
May 19
May 16
May 13
May 7
May 10
May 4
May 1
Apr 28
Apr 25
Apr 22
Apr 19
Apr 16
Apr 13
Apr 7
Apr 10
Apr 4
Apr 1
Mar 29
Mar 26
Mar 23
Mar 20
Mar 17
Mar 14
Mar 8
Mar 11
Mar 5
Mar 2
Feb 28
Feb 25
Feb 22
Feb 19
0
Feb 16
Feb. 13
Feb 13
100
Sept. 22
Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
3
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
In March, official confirmed Cases were as a minimum 15 times lower than those shown by the models of Imperial College (ICL) and the MIT modeler YYG.
Official Cases
Currently, official confirmed Cases are around five times lower than those shown by these models. So, actual Case Fatality Rate (which after the recent strong retroactive adjustments stands at around 0,9%) should be divided by 5. Thus, a proxy IFR would be around 0,2%.
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
4
With official data only
SPAIN
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale)
10000 9000 8000 7000
Very strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proporMon as in March.
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
0
Feb 4 Feb 7 Feb 10 Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22
1000
–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILY Series2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
5
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain
•
• • • •
•
Source: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands at 0,99. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use a simple proxy (see next page)
6
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 250%
•
The shape of this “Weekon-week Growth” is quite equivalent to the “Rt”
•
The growth in weekly cases began its downward trend around the 19th of July.
•
When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out.
•
When growth is less than 0% (negative), the curve begins to fall.
•
Currently is below 0%.
200%
150%
100%
0%
Mar 15 Mar 18 Mar 21 Mar 24 Mar 27 Mar 30 Apr 2 Apr 5 Apr 8 Apr 11 Apr 14 Apr 17 Apr 20 Apr 23 Apr 26 Apr 29 May 2 May 5 May 8 May 11 May 14 May 17 May 20 May 23 May 26 May 29 Jun 1 Jun 4 Jun 7 Jun 10 Jun 13 Jun 16 Jun 19 Jun 22 Jun 25 Jun 28 Jul 1 Jul 4 Jul 7 Jul 10 Jul 13 Jul 16 Jul 19 Jul 22 Jul 25 Jul 28 Jul 31 Aug 3 Aug 6 Aug 9 Aug 12 Aug 15 Aug 18 Aug 21 Aug 24 Aug 27 Aug 30 Sept 2 Sept 5 Sept 8 Sept 11 Sept 14 Sept 17 Sept 20
50%
-50%
-100%
-150% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
7
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1
•
600%
March 5
500%
Peak of growth •
400%
• March 15
300%
Lockdown
200%
July 17 Downward trend onset
•
•
0%
•
Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19
100%
•
After peaking the 5th of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On July 17, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is negative.
-100% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
8
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 20% Methodology
15%
Premise: The analysis of how the growth of each variable evolves (the “growth of the growth”) is key in any pandemic. (cfr. Nobel prize winner Michael LeviA).
•
7 days Avg of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth started its upward trend on June 16.
•
7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Death Growth started to be recurrently upwards three weeks later.
•
Growth of weekly Cases resumed its downward trend the 19th of July, and the Growth of weekly Deaths the 12th of August.
•
Currently, as per this metric, growth of cases is clearly negaMve.
10% 5%
Ap r2 Ap 3 r2 Ap 6 r2 M 9 ay M 2 ay M 5 a M y8 ay M 11 ay M 14 ay M 17 ay M 20 ay M 23 ay M 26 ay 29 Ju n1 Ju n4 Ju n Ju 7 n1 Ju 0 n1 Ju 3 n1 Ju 6 n1 Ju 9 n2 Ju 2 n2 Ju 5 n2 8 Ju l1 Ju l4 Ju l Ju 7 l1 0 Ju l1 3 Ju l1 6 Ju l1 9 Ju l2 2 Ju l2 5 Ju l2 8 Ju l3 1 Au g3 Au g6 Au g Au 9 g1 Au 2 g1 Au 5 g1 Au 8 g2 Au 1 g2 Au 4 g2 Au 7 g3 Se 0 pt Se 2 pt Se 5 p Se t 8 pt Se 1 1 pt Se 1 4 pt Se 1 7 pt 20
0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
–– 7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth Series1
––Series2 7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Deaths Growth
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
9
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: 7d Avg of WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 150% Methodology
Premise: The analysis of how the growth of each variable evolves (the “growth of the growth”) is key in any pandemic. (cfr. Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt).
•
As we saw in the previous slide, weekly Cases Growth started its upward trend on June 21. The starting point of Daily Cases at that moment was 300 cases.
•
Weekly Death Growth started to be recurrently upwards three weeks later. The starting point of the Daily Deaths at the end of June and beginning of July was nearly zero, so any increase in deaths resulted in a high growth.
•
Growth of weekly Cases resumed its downward trend the 19th of July, and the Growth of weekly Deaths the 15th of August.
100%
50%
Ap r2 Ap 3 r2 Ap 6 r2 M 9 ay M 2 ay M 5 a M y8 ay M 11 ay M 14 ay M 17 ay M 20 ay M 23 ay M 26 ay 29 Ju n1 Ju n4 Ju n Ju 7 n1 Ju 0 n1 Ju 3 n1 Ju 6 n1 Ju 9 n2 Ju 2 n2 Ju 5 n2 8 Ju l1 Ju l4 Ju l Ju 7 l1 0 Ju l1 3 Ju l1 6 Ju l1 9 Ju l2 2 Ju l2 5 Ju l2 8 Ju l3 1 Au g3 Au g6 Au g Au 9 g1 Au 2 g1 Au 5 g1 Au 8 g2 Au 1 g2 Au 4 g2 Au 7 g3 Se 0 pt Se 2 pt Se 5 p Se t 8 pt Se 1 1 pt Se 1 4 pt Se 1 7 pt 20
0%
-50%
-100%
–– Weekly Cases Growth (7d Average) Series1
–– Weekly Deaths Growth (7d Average)
Series2
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
10
0 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul 6 Jul 7 Jul 8 Jul 9 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sept 1 Sept 2 Sept 3 Sept 4 Sept 5 Sept 6 Sept 7 Sept 8 Sept 9 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Sept 15 Sept 16 Sept 17 Sept 18 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22
SPAIN: 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths From June 22 to September 22
80
70
60
0%
40
30
20
10 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul 6 Jul 7 Jul 8 Jul 9 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sept 1 Sept 2 Sept 3 Sept 4 Sept 5 Sept 6 Sept 7 Sept 8 Sept 9 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Sept 15 Sept 16 Sept 17 Sept 18 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21
With official data only Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN
14 days average of Daily Deaths grew up to 85. Growth Rate is decreasing from Aug 9. Stabilizing in Sept. SPAIN: Growth of 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths
20%
90
15%
10%
5%
50
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
11
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: DAILY DEATHS 350
300
250
200
150
100
0
Feb 13 Feb 15 Feb 17 Feb 19 Feb 21 Feb 23 Feb 25 Feb 27 Feb 29 Mar 2 Mar 4 Mar 6 Mar 8 Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 14 Mar 16 Mar 18 Mar 20 Mar 22 Mar 24 Mar 26 Mar 28 Mar 30 Apr 1 Apr 3 Apr 5 Apr 7 Apr 9 Apr 11 Apr 13 Apr 15 Apr 17 Apr 19 Apr 21 Apr 23 Apr 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 May 1 May 3 May 5 May 7 May 9 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19 May 21 May 23 May 25 May 27 May 29 May 31 Jun 2 Jun 4 Jun 6 Jun 8 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jul 2 Jul 4 Jul 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 Jul 22 Jul 24 Jul 26 Jul 28 Jul 30 Aug 1 Aug 3 Aug 5 Aug 7 Aug 9 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21 Aug 23 Aug 25 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Sept 2 Sept 4 Sept 6 Sept 8 Sept 10 Sept 12 Sept 14 Sept 16 Sept 18 Sept 20 Sept 22
50
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
12
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Madrid: Daily Cases
Chart published by the Spanish Government
Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 13 EXCELS with official data and own calculaMons: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/6uns2jpa3pfi4gn/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-18SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/hlm8m1m5xau25gs/datos_ccaas-18SEPT2020.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/jnuqmhcvo200uop/Fallecidos_COVID19-18%20Sept%202020.xlsx?dl=0
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: DAILY CASES 7 days Moving Average
3800 3300 2800 2300 1800 1300 800
-200
Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22
300
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
14
With official data only
MADRID
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale) 4000 3500 3000
Very strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proporMon as in March.
2500 2000 1500 1000
0
Feb 6 Feb 9 Feb 12 Feb 15 Feb 18 Feb 21 Feb 24 Feb 27 Mar 1 Mar 4 Mar 7 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 19 Mar 22 Mar 25 Mar 28 Mar 31 Apr 3 Apr 6 Apr 9 Apr 12 Apr 15 Apr 18 Apr 21 Apr 24 Apr 27 Apr 30 May 3 May 6 May 9 May 12 May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 Jun 2 Jun 5 Jun 8 Jun 11 Jun 14 Jun 17 Jun 20 Jun 23 Jun 26 Jun 29 Jul 2 Jul 5 Jul 8 Jul 11 Jul 14 Jul 17 Jul 20 Jul 23 Jul 26 Jul 29 Aug 1 Aug 4 Aug 7 Aug 10 Aug 13 Aug 16 Aug 19 Aug 22 Aug 25 Aug 28 Aug 31 Sept 3 Sept 6 Sept 9 Sept 12 Sept 15 Sept 18 Sept 21
500
–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILYSeries2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
15
0 Sept 22
Sept 21
Sept 20
Sept 19
Sept 18
Sept 17
Sept 16
Sept 15
Sept 14
Sept 13
Sept 12
Sept 11
Sept 10
Sept 9
Sept 8
Sept 7
Sept 6
Sept 5
Sept 4
Sept 3
Sept 2
Sept 1
Aug 31
Aug 30
Aug 29
Aug 28
Aug 27
Aug 26
Aug 25
Aug 24
Aug 23
Aug 22
Aug 21
Aug 20
Aug 19
Aug 18
Aug 17
Aug 16
Aug 15
Aug 14
Aug 13
Aug 12
Aug 11
Aug 10
Aug 9
Aug 8
Aug 7
Aug 6
Aug 5
Aug 4
Aug 3
Aug 2
Aug 1
Jul 31
Jul 30
Jul 29
Jul 28
Jul 27
Jul 26
Jul 25
Jul 24
Jul 23
Jul 22
Jul 21
Jul 20
Jul 19
Jul 18
Jul 17
Jul 16
Jul 15
Jul 14
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jul 11
Jul 10
Jul 9
Jul 8
Jul 7
Jul 6
Jul 5
Jul 4
Jul 3
Jul 2
Jul 1
Jun 30
Jun 29
Jun 28
Jun 27
Jun 26
Jun 25
Jun 24
Jun 23
Jun 22
10 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul 6 Jul 7 Jul 8 Jul 9 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sept 1 Sept 2 Sept 3 Sept 4 Sept 5 Sept 6 Sept 7 Sept 8 Sept 9 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Sept 15 Sept 16 Sept 17 Sept 18 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22 Sept 23
With official data only Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID
14 days avg. of Daily Deaths grew up to 28. Growth Rate was decreasing from Aug 20. Stable in Sept. MADRID: 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths
MADRID: Growth of 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths
From June 22 to September 22 35%
30
25
25%
20
15%
15
5%
-5%
5
-15%
-25%
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
16
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain
•
•
• • •
•
Source: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands around 1. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use as a simple proxy the week-onweek growth (see next page)
17
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 600%
•
March 4
Peak of growth 500%
• 400%
•
300%
March 15
200%
Lockdown
August 2 Downward trend onset
•
•
0%
•
Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22
100%
• -100%
After peaking the 4th of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On August 2, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is slightly negative.
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
18
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 50% Methodology
40%
30%
20%
0%
Apr 23 Apr 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 May 1 May 3 May 5 May 7 May 9 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19 May 21 May 23 May 25 May 27 May 29 May 31 Jun 2 Jun 4 Jun 6 Jun 8 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jul 2 Jul 4 Jul 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 Jul 22 Jul 24 Jul 26 Jul 28 Jul 30 Aug 1 Aug 3 Aug 5 Aug 7 Aug 9 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21 Aug 23 Aug 25 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Sept 2 Sept 4 Sept 6 Sept 8 Sept 10 Sept 12 Sept 14 Sept 16 Sept 18 Sept 20 Sept 22
10%
-10%
-20% Series1 –– 7d Series2 –– 7d Avg. of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth Avg. of Rolling Weekly Deaths Growth
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
19
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
MADRID: 7d Avg of WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 350% Methodology
300% 250% 200% 150% 100%
Sept 20
Sept 17
Sept 14
Sept 8
Sept 11
Sept 5
Sept 2
Aug 30
Aug 27
Aug 24
Aug 21
Aug 18
Aug 15
Aug 9
Aug 12
Aug 6
Aug 3
Jul 31
Jul 28
Jul 25
Jul 22
Jul 19
Jul 16
Jul 13
Jul 7
Jul 10
Jul 4
Jul 1
Jun 28
Jun 25
Jun 22
Jun 19
Jun 16
Jun 13
Jun 7
Jun 10
Jun 4
Jun 1
May 29
May 26
May 23
May 20
May 17
May 14
May 8
May 11
May 5
May 2
Apr 29
Apr 26
0%
Apr 23
50%
-50% -100%
–– Weekly Cases Growth (7d Average) Series1
–– Weekly Deaths Growth (7d Average)
Series2
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
20
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA: Daily Cases
Chart published by the Spanish Government
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 21 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA: DAILY CASES 1800
7 days Moving Average
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400
0
Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22
200
Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
22
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA: DAILY DEATHS 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
Sept 22
Sept 19
Sept 16
Sept 13
Sept 7
Sept 10
Sept 4
Sept 1
Aug 29
Aug 26
Aug 23
Aug 20
Aug 17
Aug 14
Aug 8
Aug 11
Aug 5
Aug 2
Jul 30
Jul 27
Jul 24
Jul 21
Jul 18
Jul 15
Jul 9
Jul 12
Jul 6
Jul 3
Jun 30
Jun 27
Jun 24
Jun 21
Jun 18
Jun 15
Jun 9
Jun 12
Jun 6
Jun 3
May 31
May 28
May 25
May 22
May 19
May 16
May 13
May 7
May 10
May 4
May 1
Apr 28
Apr 25
Apr 22
Apr 19
Apr 16
Apr 13
Apr 7
Apr 10
Apr 4
Apr 1
Mar 29
Mar 26
Mar 23
Mar 20
Mar 17
Mar 14
Mar 8
Mar 11
Mar 5
Mar 2
Feb 28
Feb 25
Feb 22
Feb 19
Feb 16
0
Feb 13
20
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 23 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
CALATUNYA
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale) 1800
Strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proportion as in March
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Feb 6 Feb 9 Feb 12 Feb 15 Feb 18 Feb 21 Feb 24 Feb 27 Mar 1 Mar 4 Mar 7 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 19 Mar 22 Mar 25 Mar 28 Mar 31 Apr 3 Apr 6 Apr 9 Apr 12 Apr 15 Apr 18 Apr 21 Apr 24 Apr 27 Apr 30 May 3 May 6 May 9 May 12 May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 Jun 2 Jun 5 Jun 8 Jun 11 Jun 14 Jun 17 Jun 20 Jun 23 Jun 26 Jun 29 Jul 2 Jul 5 Jul 8 Jul 11 Jul 14 Jul 17 Jul 20 Jul 23 Jul 26 Jul 29 Aug 1 Aug 4 Aug 7 Aug 10 Aug 13 Aug 16 Aug 19 Aug 22 Aug 25 Aug 28 Aug 31 Sept 3 Sept 6 Sept 9 Sept 12 Sept 15 Sept 18 Sept 21
0
–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILY Series2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
24
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain
•
•
• • •
•
The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands around 1. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use as a simple proxy the week-onweek growth (see next page)
Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 25 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA: ROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 700%
600%
•
March 7
Peak of growth •
500%
• 400%
March 15
Lockdown
300%
• 200%
July 9 Downward trend onset
100%
• Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19
0%
•
•
After peaking the Tth of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On July 9, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is around cero.
-100% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 26 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
According to this source, Spain has the lowest hospital beds per capita among many comparable countries
Link to this chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/hospital-beds-per-1000-people?tab=chart&time=2017&country=ESP
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Covid19 Hospital occupancy by Autonomous Regions
September 24
Data Source: Government of Spain / Chart: El Correo https://www.elcorreo.com/sociedad/salud/coronavirus-wuhan-amenaza-20200129164607-ntrc.html#incremento-diario
28
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Evolution of Hospitalizations in Spain – As at Sept 23 Charts published by the Spanish Government
Spain • Daily Cases
Spain • Hospitalizations • ICU admissions • Daily Deaths
Source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 44. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 16 de sepKembre de 2020 hQps://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx - Note: RENAVE registry includes only ”cleared” cases, not all.
29
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Madrid
ICU
Chart published by the Autonomous Government of Madrid HospitalizaMons and ICU (UCI in Spanish)
March 15
September 23
Source:
https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200924_cam_covid19.pdf https://www.comunidad.madrid/servicios/salud/2019-nuevo-coronavirus
30
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Madrid
Chart published by the Autonomous Government of Madrid HospitalizaMons: Admissions (Ingresos in Spanish) vs. Hospital discharges (Altas in Spanish)
March 15
Source:
https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200924_cam_covid19.pdf https://www.comunidad.madrid/servicios/salud/2019-nuevo-coronavirus
September 23
31
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With oďŹƒcial data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
CATALUNYA EvoluZon of the ICU admissions
Sept. 22
March 20
Source: Departament de Salut Generalitat and https://beteve.cat/societat/corba-coronavirus-catalunya/
32
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Hospitalizations / Cases (by age) From May 10 to Sept 16
25%
22.87%
20% 15.73%
15% 10% 5%
9,08%
3.37% 3.34%
2.86% 0.81%
0.62%
2-4
5-14
0% <2
4.71%
1.14%
2.21%
15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
≥80
Avg.
Data source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 44. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 16 de sepKembre de 2020 hQps://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx - Note: RENAVE registry includes only ”cleared” cases, not all.
33
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: % ICU / Cases (by age) From May 11 to Sept. 16 2,00% 1.60%
1,50% 1.16%
1,00% 0.59%
0,50%
0.48% 0.36%
0.27% 0.08%
0,00%
<2
0.05%
2-4
0.03%
0.06%
0.13%
5-14 15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
≥80
Avg.
Data source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 44. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 16 de sepKembre de 2020 hQps://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx - Note: RENAVE registry includes only ”cleared” cases, not all.
34
With official data only
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Covid19 – Incidence by Autonomous Regions, as of Sept. 23
Source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 45. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 23 de sepKembre de 2020
35
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN Deaths per million: Madrid vs. other Autonomous Regions, as of Sept. 24 FIRST WAVE - Feb13/June21 Deaths / Million
June 22 to September 24
Castilla - La Mancha Madrid Castilla y León La Rioja Navarra Cataluña País Vasco Aragón ESPAÑA Extremadura Cantabria Asturias Valencia Galicia Baleares Andalucía Murcia Canarias Ceuta Melilla
Aragón La Rioja País Vasco Madrid Castilla y León Ceuta ESPAÑA Baleares Navarra Castilla - La Mancha Extremadura Galicia Andalucía Valencia Cantabria Canarias Melilla Cataluña Asturias Murcia
1.425,6 1.256,3 1.159,8 1.152,2 807,1 738,4 704,3 687,5 598,5 485,2 358,0 326,6 285,6 229,3 194,9 169,1 98,4 75,2 47,2 23,1
Deaths / Million
332 139 127 118 88 71 59 55 53 44 42 40 34 30 28 27 23 21 9 7
GRAND TOTAL - Sept. 24
Castilla - La Mancha Madrid La Rioja Castilla y León Aragón Navarra País Vasco Cataluña ESPAÑA Extremadura Cantabria Asturias Valencia Galicia Baleares Andalucía Ceuta Murcia Canarias Melilla
Deaths / Million
1.469 1.374 1.291 1.248 1.019 861 832 759 658 527 385 335 316 269 250 203 118 106 102 46
Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0
36
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN - Excess Death All Causes MoMo: Update Sept. 25, 2020 No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.
Source: hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional
37
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.
Source:
hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa
38
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.
Source:
hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa
39
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020
With official data only
Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid
Source:
hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa
40
Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/
Here’s to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules, and they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. But the only thing you can’t do is ignore them, because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do. — Steve Jobs, 1997 41