SPAIN -Second Wave Monitoring-25Sept2020 by Catalan Analyst

With official data only

Update: 25 September, 2020

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Daily Cases Chart published by the Government of Spain Source: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa

Disclaimer: This research is a preliminary study. During a pandemic, any data can be inaccurate. The author does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the data and calculaMons, his own or those from third parMes, nor for the express or implicit recommendaMons. Acknowledgements: To my family, the only party with whom I have had a true conďŹ&#x201A;ict of interest regarding this research, because of the aQenMon Mme I have stolen from them.

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: DAILY CASES 7 days Moving Average 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000

Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22

1000

Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: DAILY DEATHS 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

Sept 22

Sept 19

Sept 16

Sept 13

Sept 7

Sept 10

Sept 4

Sept 1

Aug 29

Aug 26

Aug 23

Aug 20

Aug 17

Aug 14

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Mar 17

Mar 14

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Feb. 13

Feb 13

100

Sept. 22

Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlﬀz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

In March, official confirmed Cases were as a minimum 15 times lower than those shown by the models of Imperial College (ICL) and the MIT modeler YYG.

Official Cases

Currently, official confirmed Cases are around five times lower than those shown by these models. So, actual Case Fatality Rate (which after the recent strong retroactive adjustments stands at around 0,9%) should be divided by 5. Thus, a proxy IFR would be around 0,2%.

With official data only

SPAIN

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale)

10000 9000 8000 7000

Very strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proporMon as in March.

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000

Feb 4 Feb 7 Feb 10 Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19 Sept 22

1000

–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILY Series2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain

•

• • • •

•

Source: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa

The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands at 0,99. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use a simple proxy (see next page)

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 250%

•

The shape of this “Weekon-week Growth” is quite equivalent to the “Rt”

•

The growth in weekly cases began its downward trend around the 19th of July.

•

When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out.

•

When growth is less than 0% (negative), the curve begins to fall.

•

Currently is below 0%.

200%

150%

100%

Mar 15 Mar 18 Mar 21 Mar 24 Mar 27 Mar 30 Apr 2 Apr 5 Apr 8 Apr 11 Apr 14 Apr 17 Apr 20 Apr 23 Apr 26 Apr 29 May 2 May 5 May 8 May 11 May 14 May 17 May 20 May 23 May 26 May 29 Jun 1 Jun 4 Jun 7 Jun 10 Jun 13 Jun 16 Jun 19 Jun 22 Jun 25 Jun 28 Jul 1 Jul 4 Jul 7 Jul 10 Jul 13 Jul 16 Jul 19 Jul 22 Jul 25 Jul 28 Jul 31 Aug 3 Aug 6 Aug 9 Aug 12 Aug 15 Aug 18 Aug 21 Aug 24 Aug 27 Aug 30 Sept 2 Sept 5 Sept 8 Sept 11 Sept 14 Sept 17 Sept 20

50%

-50%

-100%

-150% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1

•

600%

March 5

500%

Peak of growth •

400%

• March 15

300%

Lockdown

200%

July 17 Downward trend onset

•

100%

•

After peaking the 5th of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On July 17, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is negative.

-100% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 20% Methodology

15%

Premise: The analysis of how the growth of each variable evolves (the “growth of the growth”) is key in any pandemic. (cfr. Nobel prize winner Michael LeviA).

•

7 days Avg of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth started its upward trend on June 16.

•

7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Death Growth started to be recurrently upwards three weeks later.

•

Growth of weekly Cases resumed its downward trend the 19th of July, and the Growth of weekly Deaths the 12th of August.

•

Currently, as per this metric, growth of cases is clearly negaMve.

10% 5%

Ap r2 Ap 3 r2 Ap 6 r2 M 9 ay M 2 ay M 5 a M y8 ay M 11 ay M 14 ay M 17 ay M 20 ay M 23 ay M 26 ay 29 Ju n1 Ju n4 Ju n Ju 7 n1 Ju 0 n1 Ju 3 n1 Ju 6 n1 Ju 9 n2 Ju 2 n2 Ju 5 n2 8 Ju l1 Ju l4 Ju l Ju 7 l1 0 Ju l1 3 Ju l1 6 Ju l1 9 Ju l2 2 Ju l2 5 Ju l2 8 Ju l3 1 Au g3 Au g6 Au g Au 9 g1 Au 2 g1 Au 5 g1 Au 8 g2 Au 1 g2 Au 4 g2 Au 7 g3 Se 0 pt Se 2 pt Se 5 p Se t 8 pt Se 1 1 pt Se 1 4 pt Se 1 7 pt 20

0% -5% -10% -15% -20%

–– 7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth Series1

––Series2 7d Avg of Rolling Weekly Deaths Growth

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: 7d Avg of WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 150% Methodology

Premise: The analysis of how the growth of each variable evolves (the “growth of the growth”) is key in any pandemic. (cfr. Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt).

•

As we saw in the previous slide, weekly Cases Growth started its upward trend on June 21. The starting point of Daily Cases at that moment was 300 cases.

•

Weekly Death Growth started to be recurrently upwards three weeks later. The starting point of the Daily Deaths at the end of June and beginning of July was nearly zero, so any increase in deaths resulted in a high growth.

•

Growth of weekly Cases resumed its downward trend the 19th of July, and the Growth of weekly Deaths the 15th of August.

100%

50%

-50%

-100%

–– Weekly Cases Growth (7d Average) Series1

–– Weekly Deaths Growth (7d Average)

Series2

0 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul 6 Jul 7 Jul 8 Jul 9 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sept 1 Sept 2 Sept 3 Sept 4 Sept 5 Sept 6 Sept 7 Sept 8 Sept 9 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Sept 15 Sept 16 Sept 17 Sept 18 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22

SPAIN: 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths From June 22 to September 22

10 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 1 Jul 2 Jul 3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul 6 Jul 7 Jul 8 Jul 9 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug 6 Aug 7 Aug 8 Aug 9 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Sept 1 Sept 2 Sept 3 Sept 4 Sept 5 Sept 6 Sept 7 Sept 8 Sept 9 Sept 10 Sept 11 Sept 12 Sept 13 Sept 14 Sept 15 Sept 16 Sept 17 Sept 18 Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21

With official data only Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN

14 days average of Daily Deaths grew up to 85. Growth Rate is decreasing from Aug 9. Stabilizing in Sept. SPAIN: Growth of 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths

20%

15%

10%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: DAILY DEATHS 350

300

250

200

150

100

Feb 13 Feb 15 Feb 17 Feb 19 Feb 21 Feb 23 Feb 25 Feb 27 Feb 29 Mar 2 Mar 4 Mar 6 Mar 8 Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 14 Mar 16 Mar 18 Mar 20 Mar 22 Mar 24 Mar 26 Mar 28 Mar 30 Apr 1 Apr 3 Apr 5 Apr 7 Apr 9 Apr 11 Apr 13 Apr 15 Apr 17 Apr 19 Apr 21 Apr 23 Apr 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 May 1 May 3 May 5 May 7 May 9 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19 May 21 May 23 May 25 May 27 May 29 May 31 Jun 2 Jun 4 Jun 6 Jun 8 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jul 2 Jul 4 Jul 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 Jul 22 Jul 24 Jul 26 Jul 28 Jul 30 Aug 1 Aug 3 Aug 5 Aug 7 Aug 9 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21 Aug 23 Aug 25 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Sept 2 Sept 4 Sept 6 Sept 8 Sept 10 Sept 12 Sept 14 Sept 16 Sept 18 Sept 20 Sept 22

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Madrid: Daily Cases

Chart published by the Spanish Government

Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 13 EXCELS with oﬃcial data and own calculaMons: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/6uns2jpa3pﬁ4gn/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-18SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/hlm8m1m5xau25gs/datos_ccaas-18SEPT2020.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/jnuqmhcvo200uop/Fallecidos_COVID19-18%20Sept%202020.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: DAILY CASES 7 days Moving Average

3800 3300 2800 2300 1800 1300 800

-200

300

With official data only

MADRID

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale) 4000 3500 3000

Very strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proporMon as in March.

2500 2000 1500 1000

Feb 6 Feb 9 Feb 12 Feb 15 Feb 18 Feb 21 Feb 24 Feb 27 Mar 1 Mar 4 Mar 7 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 19 Mar 22 Mar 25 Mar 28 Mar 31 Apr 3 Apr 6 Apr 9 Apr 12 Apr 15 Apr 18 Apr 21 Apr 24 Apr 27 Apr 30 May 3 May 6 May 9 May 12 May 15 May 18 May 21 May 24 May 27 May 30 Jun 2 Jun 5 Jun 8 Jun 11 Jun 14 Jun 17 Jun 20 Jun 23 Jun 26 Jun 29 Jul 2 Jul 5 Jul 8 Jul 11 Jul 14 Jul 17 Jul 20 Jul 23 Jul 26 Jul 29 Aug 1 Aug 4 Aug 7 Aug 10 Aug 13 Aug 16 Aug 19 Aug 22 Aug 25 Aug 28 Aug 31 Sept 3 Sept 6 Sept 9 Sept 12 Sept 15 Sept 18 Sept 21

500

–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILYSeries2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

0 Sept 22

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With official data only Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID

14 days avg. of Daily Deaths grew up to 28. Growth Rate was decreasing from Aug 20. Stable in Sept. MADRID: 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths

MADRID: Growth of 14d Avg. of Daily Deaths

From June 22 to September 22 35%

25%

15%

-5%

-15%

-25%

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain

•

• • •

•

Source: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa

The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands around 1. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use as a simple proxy the week-onweek growth (see next page)

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: GROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 600%

•

March 4

Peak of growth 500%

• 400%

•

300%

March 15

200%

Lockdown

August 2 Downward trend onset

•

100%

• -100%

After peaking the 4th of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On August 2, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is slightly negative.

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of ROLLING WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 50% Methodology

40%

30%

20%

Apr 23 Apr 25 Apr 27 Apr 29 May 1 May 3 May 5 May 7 May 9 May 11 May 13 May 15 May 17 May 19 May 21 May 23 May 25 May 27 May 29 May 31 Jun 2 Jun 4 Jun 6 Jun 8 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jul 2 Jul 4 Jul 6 Jul 8 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Jul 16 Jul 18 Jul 20 Jul 22 Jul 24 Jul 26 Jul 28 Jul 30 Aug 1 Aug 3 Aug 5 Aug 7 Aug 9 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21 Aug 23 Aug 25 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug 31 Sept 2 Sept 4 Sept 6 Sept 8 Sept 10 Sept 12 Sept 14 Sept 16 Sept 18 Sept 20 Sept 22

10%

-10%

-20% Series1 –– 7d Series2 –– 7d Avg. of Rolling Weekly Cases Growth Avg. of Rolling Weekly Deaths Growth

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

MADRID: 7d Avg of WEEKLY CASES GROWTH vs. 7d Avg of WEEKLY DEATHS GROWTH 350% Methodology

300% 250% 200% 150% 100%

Sept 20

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50%

-50% -100%

–– Weekly Cases Growth (7d Average) Series1

–– Weekly Deaths Growth (7d Average)

Series2

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA: Daily Cases

Chart published by the Spanish Government

Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 21 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA: DAILY CASES 1800

7 days Moving Average

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400

200

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA: DAILY DEATHS 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

Sept 22

Sept 19

Sept 16

Sept 13

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Jul 24

Jul 21

Jul 18

Jul 15

Jul 9

Jul 12

Jul 6

Jul 3

Jun 30

Jun 27

Jun 24

Jun 21

Jun 18

Jun 15

Jun 9

Jun 12

Jun 6

Jun 3

May 31

May 28

May 25

May 22

May 19

May 16

May 13

May 7

May 10

May 4

May 1

Apr 28

Apr 25

Apr 22

Apr 19

Apr 16

Apr 13

Apr 7

Apr 10

Apr 4

Apr 1

Mar 29

Mar 26

Mar 23

Mar 20

Mar 17

Mar 14

Mar 8

Mar 11

Mar 5

Mar 2

Feb 28

Feb 25

Feb 22

Feb 19

Feb 16

Feb 13

Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 23 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

CALATUNYA

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

7d mov. avg. of DAILY CASES vs. DAILY DEATHS (both in the same scale) 1800

Strong second wave of Cases. Deaths did not follow in the same proportion as in March

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

–– DAILY DEATHS Series1 –– DAILY Series2 CASES 7d moving avg. Data sources: Government of Spain: hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es / hQps://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / hQps://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf EXCELS: hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / hQps://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlﬀz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA: EVOLUTION OF OFFICIAL “Rt” Chart published by the Government of Spain

•

• • •

•

The “Rt” try to measure the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the disease. Rt growth began its downward trend around the 19th of July. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is less than 1, the curve begins to fall. With the new series of cases, currently (as at September 19) Rt stands around 1. However, the method for calculating Rt is very obscure. We can use as a simple proxy the week-onweek growth (see next page)

Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 25 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA: ROWTH OF WEEKLY CASES % Growth = (∑ Cases current week / ∑ Cases previous week) - 1 700%

600%

•

March 7

Peak of growth •

500%

• 400%

March 15

Lockdown

300%

• 200%

July 9 Downward trend onset

100%

• Feb 13 Feb 16 Feb 19 Feb 22 Feb 25 Feb 28 Mar 2 Mar 5 Mar 8 Mar 11 Mar 14 Mar 17 Mar 20 Mar 23 Mar 26 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 4 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 16 Apr 19 Apr 22 Apr 25 Apr 28 May 1 May 4 May 7 May 10 May 13 May 16 May 19 May 22 May 25 May 28 May 31 Jun 3 Jun 6 Jun 9 Jun 12 Jun 15 Jun 18 Jun 21 Jun 24 Jun 27 Jun 30 Jul 3 Jul 6 Jul 9 Jul 12 Jul 15 Jul 18 Jul 21 Jul 24 Jul 27 Jul 30 Aug 2 Aug 5 Aug 8 Aug 11 Aug 14 Aug 17 Aug 20 Aug 23 Aug 26 Aug 29 Sept 1 Sept 4 Sept 7 Sept 10 Sept 13 Sept 16 Sept 19

•

After peaking the Tth of March, when there were no measures, growth of weekly cases started its pronounced downward trend. Lockdown was mandatory on the 15th of March. No effect of the lockdown is perceived on the downward slope of the weekly cases growth (that had been already initiated). On July 9, the week-onweek growth started its downward trend. When the growth rate decreases, the curve flattens out. When growth is negative, the curve begins to fall. Currently is around cero.

-100% Data sources: Government of Spain: https://cnecovid.isciii.es / https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa / https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_215_COVID-19.pdf 26 EXCELS: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zen3hbp27n5sf3o/Daily%20Cases%20and%20Deaths%20Spain-25SEPT.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/o11z5jgzm9t5owu/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20CASOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0 / https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5fsemlffz7oh8s/VARIACION%20DIARIA%20FALLECIDOS-ESPA%C3%91A.xlsx?dl=0

According to this source, Spain has the lowest hospital beds per capita among many comparable countries

Link to this chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/hospital-beds-per-1000-people?tab=chart&time=2017&country=ESP

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Covid19 Hospital occupancy by Autonomous Regions

September 24

Data Source: Government of Spain / Chart: El Correo https://www.elcorreo.com/sociedad/salud/coronavirus-wuhan-amenaza-20200129164607-ntrc.html#incremento-diario

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Evolution of Hospitalizations in Spain – As at Sept 23 Charts published by the Spanish Government

Spain • Daily Cases

Spain • Hospitalizations • ICU admissions • Daily Deaths

Source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 44. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 16 de sepKembre de 2020 hQps://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx - Note: RENAVE registry includes only ”cleared” cases, not all.

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Madrid

ICU

Chart published by the Autonomous Government of Madrid HospitalizaMons and ICU (UCI in Spanish)

March 15

September 23

Source:

https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200924_cam_covid19.pdf https://www.comunidad.madrid/servicios/salud/2019-nuevo-coronavirus

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Madrid

Chart published by the Autonomous Government of Madrid HospitalizaMons: Admissions (Ingresos in Spanish) vs. Hospital discharges (Altas in Spanish)

March 15

Source:

https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200924_cam_covid19.pdf https://www.comunidad.madrid/servicios/salud/2019-nuevo-coronavirus

September 23

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sept 25, 2020

With oďŹ&#x192;cial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

CATALUNYA EvoluZon of the ICU admissions

Sept. 22

March 20

Source: Departament de Salut Generalitat and https://beteve.cat/societat/corba-coronavirus-catalunya/

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Hospitalizations / Cases (by age) From May 10 to Sept 16

25%

22.87%

20% 15.73%

15% 10% 5%

9,08%

3.37% 3.34%

2.86% 0.81%

0.62%

2-4

5-14

0% <2

4.71%

1.14%

2.21%

15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79

≥80

Avg.

Data source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 44. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 16 de sepKembre de 2020 hQps://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx - Note: RENAVE registry includes only ”cleared” cases, not all.

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: % ICU / Cases (by age) From May 11 to Sept. 16 2,00% 1.60%

1,50% 1.16%

1,00% 0.59%

0,50%

0.48% 0.36%

0.27% 0.08%

0,00%

0.05%

2-4

0.03%

0.06%

0.13%

5-14 15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79

≥80

Avg.

With oﬃcial data only

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Covid19 – Incidence by Autonomous Regions, as of Sept. 23

Source: Government of Spain. Informe RENAVE nº 45. Situación de COVID-19 en España. Casos diagnosMcados a parMr 10 de mayo - Informe COVID-19. 23 de sepKembre de 2020

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN Deaths per million: Madrid vs. other Autonomous Regions, as of Sept. 24 FIRST WAVE - Feb13/June21 Deaths / Million

June 22 to September 24

Castilla - La Mancha Madrid Castilla y León La Rioja Navarra Cataluña País Vasco Aragón ESPAÑA Extremadura Cantabria Asturias Valencia Galicia Baleares Andalucía Murcia Canarias Ceuta Melilla

Aragón La Rioja País Vasco Madrid Castilla y León Ceuta ESPAÑA Baleares Navarra Castilla - La Mancha Extremadura Galicia Andalucía Valencia Cantabria Canarias Melilla Cataluña Asturias Murcia

1.425,6 1.256,3 1.159,8 1.152,2 807,1 738,4 704,3 687,5 598,5 485,2 358,0 326,6 285,6 229,3 194,9 169,1 98,4 75,2 47,2 23,1

Deaths / Million

332 139 127 118 88 71 59 55 53 44 42 40 34 30 28 27 23 21 9 7

GRAND TOTAL - Sept. 24

Castilla - La Mancha Madrid La Rioja Castilla y León Aragón Navarra País Vasco Cataluña ESPAÑA Extremadura Cantabria Asturias Valencia Galicia Baleares Andalucía Ceuta Murcia Canarias Melilla

Deaths / Million

1.469 1.374 1.291 1.248 1.019 861 832 759 658 527 385 335 316 269 250 203 118 106 102 46

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN - Excess Death All Causes MoMo: Update Sept. 25, 2020 No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.

Source: hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.

Source:

hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With official data only

Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid.

Source:

hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020

With oﬃcial data only

Author: Jose Gefaell hQps://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

SPAIN: Excess Deaths (all causes) – Autonomous Regions (as at Sept 25) No second wave, for now. Just small spikes, mainly in Madrid

Source:

hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional hQps://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#ccaa

Covid19 Second Wave Monitoring – Sept 25, 2020 Author: Jose Gefaell https://www.linkedin.com/in/josegefaell/

Here’s to the crazy ones, the misﬁts, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things diﬀerently. They’re not fond of rules, and they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. But the only thing you can’t do is ignore them, because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do. — Steve Jobs, 1997 41