Residential Market Report Dubai - United Arab Emirates Q1 2015
2
1.0
FOREWORD
4
2.0
CAVENDISH MAXWELL INTRODUCTION
4
3.0
PROPERTY MONITOR INTRODUCTION
4
4.1
DUBAI RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS – THE STORY SO FAR
5
4.2
MARKET WIDE TRENDS
6
4.3
SALE PRICE & PERFORMANCE
7
4.4
CURRENT RENTAL PRICE & PERFORMANCE
7
4.5
OFF PLAN PROJECT PERFORMANCE
8
4.6
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
8
5.0
SUPPLY
10
6.0
REGULATION
12
7.0
ECONOMIC FACTORS
13
8.1
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
13
8.2
MORTGAGE FINANCE
14
9.0
SENTIMENT
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Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Residential Market Report | Š Cavendish Maxwell 2015
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INTRODUCTION
1.0 Foreword Adam Wisher, MRICS Head of Development Advisory & Real Estate Research
‘The lower transaction volumes during the second half of 2014 created a downward pressure on prices that led to reductions in Q1 2015 as sellers began to lower their expectations to get deals through. The average price at the end of Q1 stood at AED 1,344 per sq ft, representing a 5.1% market wide decline in the preceding 9 months from what looks to be the peak in Q2 2014. The extent of this trend is not a one-sizefits-all generalisation with established locations - Business Bay, Dubai Marina & parts of Downtown - showing the most resilience. Secondary apartment locations such as International City and end user villa communities have been hit the hardest with year-on-year drops of up to 11%. Despite these declines, there is still appetite in the off-plan market with several successful launches of product in secondary locations such as Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubailand. Developers in these locations have, however, had to offer very flexible payment plans alongside developer track record and marketing exposure to drive absorption.
2.0 Cavendish Maxwell introduction: a full spectrum property service firm We are a firm of chartered surveyors and property consultants focusing on property services throughout the Middle East and Africa. Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell has expanded into one of the region’s largest and highest profile property consultancies. As a fully qualified member firm of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and with extensive knowledge of the region’s property and asset markets, we have the necessary experience and expertise to deal with property and business assets of all types.
Given our growing prominence in the market more banks, private clients, landlords, tenants and developers are turning to Cavendish Maxwell due to our excellent reputation as property consultants and advisors. We offer a comprehensive range of property services across six departments, each of which is headed by fully qualified chartered surveyors.
3.0 Property Monitor: the property data partner for your business The data included within this report draws from the Property Monitor, a live data service driven by bespoke research conducted by Cavendish Maxwell and a number of Approved Partners. The Property Monitor draws on real-time data as and when MOUs are signed and therefore represents the most current source of actual transactions. More detail than is presented in this report is available from Cavendish Maxwell on
request, alongside a range of valuation, agency, advisory, research and other property services. The Property Monitor is also available to market operatives who are looking to access transactional evidence to inform investment development and transactional activity. All data is verified by an RICS surveyor and covers both Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
This appetite will be tested in the coming years with 23,000+ units being delivered in 2015. A total pipeline of 54,495 units are expected to be delivered during 2015-2017, 45.7% of this coming from Dubailand and Sports City master developments. In terms of sentiment, the majority of the market expects further price declines up to 5% in the run up to Q3.
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Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: CURRENT ACTIVITY
4.1 Dubai residential market the story so far…
“Factors driving the market include supply, sentiment, regulation and finance - a combination of which have led to varying trends post the peaks of 2008 and most recently in Q2 2014.”
The property market in Dubai saw unprecedented levels of growth during 2007 and early 2008 following the establishment of the freehold areas, and the subsequent law governing them in 2006. Prices peaked in 2008 following high levels of speculation and then dropped just as drastically in the wake of the global economic crisis. These clear cycles between 2008 and 2014 are discussed in this report focusing on the fundamentals behind the factors affecting the market to inform how it will progress up to 2020.
The emerging market of Dubai has seen relatively short cycles with prices bottoming out in Q1 of 2011 before seeing growth to what looks to be another peak, albeit below that of 2008, in Q2 of 2014.
Key points • Year on Year (Y-o-Y) drops of 28% and 20.4% following 2008 peak.
• Market confidence grew from 2012 and 2013 (Y-o-Y price increases of 37.2% & 12.7% respectively) with changes in the business models of developers alongside new regulations and the EXPO 2020 announcement.
• 2009 - period of market consolidation as major government based developers re-grouped, restructured debt and planned for a more sustainable business model.
figure 1
Dubai real estate market economic Timeline source: cavendish maxwell
1600 1500 1400
1400
1320
1350
1356
1380
1200 Lehman Brothers collapse
1090
1000
!
1100 1010
Early signs of trouble for Governmentrelated entities
UAE Real Estate Boom
Oil price collapse at $ 47/ barrel Expo 2020 announcement
average 878
800
600
Oil price collapse at $ 32/ barrel
US housing bubble began to burst Oil price peak at $ 145/ barrel
Nakheel and DWC announcing plans for debt restructuring
$10 BILION $ 10 billion-worth bond issuance by the Dubai Central Bank
400
Rebound growth for the general markets - oil prices above $ 100
Abu Dhabi’s $10 billion loan to Dubai
Post-Expo 2020
Russian currency crisis
Q1 2010 to Q1 2012 Prolonged period of slow growth, prices around AED 878/ sq.ft.
200 Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q4 2008 Q1 2009
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Q4 2009
Q2 2012
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q3 & Q4 2014
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: CURRENT ACTIVITY
“Prime areas recovered first and have remained most resilient following recent price compressions - prime stays prime.”
4.2 Market wide trends established area profile, sales Sales value trends, by area Source: Property Monitor Indices*
2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400
Dubai Apartment Averages
Dubai Villa Averages
Downtown Burj Khalifa
DIFC
Arabian Ranches
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
2010 Q1
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2008 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
200
Springs
figure 2 * the Property Monitor indices draws from data collated under exclusive agreements with reputable local agents and the Cavendish Maxwell’s valuation business. This includes off-plan and secondary transactions as well as mortgage and non-mortgage deals. Importantly the data comes in real-time as and when MOUs are signed and all transactions verified by an RICS surveyor.
Key points
“It is important to view quarterly trends and also those since the peak but the year-to-date will reflect the strong performance of some areas in Q1 of 2014.”
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• Whilst declines were marginal across Q3 & Q4 2014 with sellers holding firm alongside reduced volumes, the last quarter has seen a drop across the market. In Q1 2015 villa properties declined by 3%, compared to apartments which dropped by 2%. • The market looks to have peaked at Q2 2014 at an average price of AED 1,416 per sq. ft. (In the 9 months succeeding we have witnessed a drop of 5.1%, comparing to a drop of 21% in the corresponding period following the peak of 2008.)
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: CURRENT ACTIVITY
4.3 Sale price & performance - year to date (YTD) Residential sale prices. Dubai, villas source: Property Monitor
Q1 2014 AED YTD ranking per sq. ft.
TIME PERIOD
Area Jumeirah Golf Estates (1*) Jumeirah Islands (2*) The Lakes (3*) Jumeirah Park (4*) Victory Heights (5*) The Meadows (6*) Arabian Ranches (7*) The Springs (8*) Jumeirah Village Triangle (9*) Al Furjan Villas (10*)
4 7 8 10 13 14 15 17 18 20
1,525 1,656 1,509 1,200 1,347 1,632 1,411 1,321 1,124 1,077
Q2 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q3 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q4 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q1 2015 AED per sq. ft.
1,592 (4.39%) 1,727 (4.29%) 1,562 (3.48%) 1,237 (3.08%) 1,369 (1.63%) 1,674 (2.57%) 1,433 (1.59%) 1,357 (2.73%) 1,163 (3.41%) 1,049 (-2.66%)
1,591 (-0.06%) 1,700 (-1.56%) 1,585 (1.45%) 1,237 (0.00%) 1,370 (0.07%) 1,675 (0.06%) 1,419 (-0.98%) 1,345 (-0.90%) 1,131 (-2.75%) 983 (-6.29%)
1,566 (-1.57%) 1,680 (-1.18%) 1,543 (-2.63%) 1,209 (-2.26%) 1,347 (-1.68%) 1,659 (-0.99%) 1,399 (-1.38%) 1,323 (-1.66%) 1,094 (-3.21%) 977 (-0.54%) +/- Average
1,551 (-0.96%) 1,660 (-1.19%) 1,503 (-2.62%) 1,189 (-1.65%) 1,314 (-2.43%) 1,577 (-4.92%) 1,363 (-2.58%) 1,248 (-5.65%) 1,038 (-5.19%) 956 (-2.18%) -2.94%
Q2 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q3 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q4 2014 AED per sq. ft.
Q1 2015 AED per sq. ft.
1763 (4.43%) 1647 (6.12%) 1501 (3.37%) 1876 (4.37%) 2565 (3.22%) 1654 (2.48%) 922 (4.89%) 1,022 (6.02%) 982 (2.92%) 815 (0.99%)
1767 (0.22%) 1627 (-1.21%) 1497 (-0.24%) 1854 (-1.18%) 2532 (-1.27%) 1648 (-0.36%) 915 (-0.76%) 1,021 (-0.10%) 936 (-4.59%) 770 (-5.52%)
1762 (-0.26%) 1609 (-1.11%) 1490 (-0.47%) 1847 (-0.40%) 2518 (-0.56%) 1630 (-1.09%) 889 (-2.84%) 1,000 (-2.06%) 933 (-0.39%) 744 (-3.38%) +/- Average
1732 (-1.74%) 1592 (-1.06%) 1484 (-0.40%) 1828 (-0.99%) 2509 (-0.37%) 1608 (-1.35%) 870 (-2.14%) 9,43 (-5.70%) 911 (-2.33%) 717 (-3.63%) -1,97
Decline from YTD Q2 ‘14 Peak % change % change -2.58% -3.88% -3.78% -3.88% -4.02% -5.79% -4.88% -8.03% -10.75% -8.87% -5,65
1.70% 0.24% -0.40% -0.92% -2.45% -3.37% -3.40% -5.53% -7.65% -11.23% -3,30
figure 3
Residential sale prices. Dubai, apartments source: Property Monitor
TIME PERIOD
Area
Q1 2014 YTD Market AED wide ranking per sq. ft.
Dubai Marina (1*) 1 Emirates Living (Greens/Views) (1*) 1 Business Bay (3*) 3 Jumeirah Beach Residences (4*) 5 Downtown Burj Khalifa (5*) 6 Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apt) (6*) 9 Dubai Sports City (7*) 11 Uptown Motor City (8*) 12 Discovery Gardens (9*) 16 International City (10*) 19
1,688 1,552 1,452 1,798 2,485 1,614 879 964 954 807
Decline from YTD Q2 ‘14 Peak % change % change -1.76% -3.34% -1.13% -2.56% -2.18% -2.78% -5.64% -7.73% -7.23% -12.02% -4,64
2.60% 2.60% 2.20% 1.70% 1.00% -0.40% -1.00% -2.18% -4.50% -11.20% -0,92
“Apartments dominate the top ten performing locations and peripheral areas have been hit hard in the villa market.” “The villa market has dipped between 2.28% (Jumeirah Golf Estates) to 10.75% (Jmeirah Village Triangle) since the market peak and an average of 5.65%. The apartment market has seen a boarder range of decline from 1.76% in Dubai Marina down to 12% in International City with an average of 4.64%.
figure 4
4.4 Current rental points & performance quarterly Rental price trends, by unit type source: Property Monitor
Villa community (Assumes 4 bed villa) Victory Heights The Springs Arabian Ranches Jumeirah Village Triangle Jumeirah Islands The Meadows Jumeirah Park The Lakes Jumeirah Golf Estates
AED Rent per sq. AED Rent per unit (p.a.) (‘000) ft. (p.a.) March ‘15 March ‘15 81 72 70 53 60 68 65 71 74
195 - 225 190 - 220 180 - 230 205 - 230 285 - 320 245 - 260 260 - 290 280 - 310 340 - 370
Apartments (Assumes 2 bed apartment)
AED Rent per sq. AED Rent per unit (p.a.) (‘000) ft. (p.a.) March ‘15 March ‘15
International City Motor City Dubai Sports City Emirates Living Jumeirah Beach Residences Dubai Marina Business Bay Downtown Burj Khalifa (Upscale) Downtown Burj Khalifa (Luxury)
60 76 70 108 105 114 96 120 155
67 - 75 110 - 120 90 - 110 130 - 150 130 - 160 130 - 150 130 - 160 135 - 165 260 - 280
End user villa communities such as Arabian Ranches and the Springs declined 4.8% and 8.% respectively but still show a strong occupancies and amongst the highest rates per sq ft in the rental market.”
figure 5
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: CURRENT ACTIVITY
“ Strong investor performance in the Downtown, Emirates Living & Dubai Marina locations.” “Peripheral areas showing strong investment returns for those entering the market now - International City, Discovery Gardens, Sports City & Motor City with above 8% returns - but lower overall performance taking into consideration the price compression in these areas.” “Apartment locations dominate top 5 performing areas for investors.” “Future investment potential in emerging areas with strategic locations such as DWC and DIP.”
4.5 Off-plan project performance Investor appetite remains for off-plan and under construction projects. Outside of tier one developer led schemes, we have seen strong performance for recent launches outside of prime locations. A sample of recently launched schemes include: • Grand Horizon, Dubai Sports City. 200 units launched by developer / agent GGICO. Launch Date: Feb 2015. • Acacia at Park Heights, Phase 3, Mohammad Bin Rashid (MBR) City. 479 Apartments Launched By Emaar. Launch Date: Feb 2015. • Town Square Phase, 1 (Zahra), Dubailand. 306 apartments launched by Nshama. Launch Date: Feb - Mar 2015. • Downtown Views, Downtown Burj Khalifa. 418 units launched by Emaar. Launch Date: April 2015
• Akoya Project, Dubailand. 2,182 units launched by Damac Properties. Launch Date: Various dates. • Villa Lantana, Al Barsha South. 438 villas launched by Tecom Investments. Launch Date: January 2014. • Mira Oasis, Phase 1, Dubailand. 411 units launched by Emaar. Launch Date: Feb 2014. • Mira Oasis, Phase 2, Dubailand. 480 units launched by Emaar. Launch Date: April 2014. • Polo Residence, Mohammad Bin Rashid (MBR) City. 29 Apartment buildings launched by Invest Group Overseas (IGO). Launch Date: May 2014. • The Vertex Towers, Phase 1, Motor City. 45 & 30 storey apartment towers launched by Union Properties. Launch Date: Sep 2014.
Track record and marketing exposure is said to have driven strong absorption at the above schemes. Developers have, however, had to encourage demand with very flexible payment plans which, in some cases, exceed the project delivery date.
4.6 Investment performance capital appreciation vs. investment yield* Investment performance - Capital appreciation vs. investment yield* source: Property Monitor Indices
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%
figure 6
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1. Em ree irat e ns an s Livi dV n iew g s) 2. Du ba iM ari na 3. B 4. usi Ju n ess me ira Ba hB y ea ch Re sid e 5. nc Ju es me ira ch Go lf E 6. sta Do te wn tow nB urj K ha 7. lifa Ju me ira hI sla nd s
-12%
GROSS RENTAL YIELD
CAPITAL APPRECIATION
* representation of gross investment yield ** Ranking basis on a 50/50 weighting of rental yield/capital appreciation
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Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: CURRENT ACTIVITY
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
9
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
5.0 Supply
“Supply will continue to have an impact on price with opportunities for residents to upgrade in emerging locations in the sale and rental markets.”
Pipeline supply, Dubai
Commulative Supply
Yearly Supply
Q1 2015
Source: Property Monitor
560,000
30,000
Units: Yearly Increase
540,000
1,464
25,000
23,304
520,000
18,990
20,000
17,512 15,000
500,000
12,950
12,214
480,000
10,000
460,000 4,260
5,000
440,000 420,000
2013
Figure 7
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Key points • 23,000+ additional units to enter market in 2015, 4.5% net addition. • 7,885 additional luxury units over the coming three years - 11% of the total 71,848 pipeline in 2015-2017.
• Significant additions in secondary areas in 2015 - 2018. Including: JVC (6.2% of pipeline), Sports City (11.5% of pipeline), DIP (2.9% of pipeline) and Dubailand (43%% of pipeline).
Existing supply, Dubai MHI 8: EXISTING SUPPLY
24 10
16
28
19
4
13
20
18
13
25
13
13
5
3
13
6
13
1
26 22 21 21
14
29
7
27 17
NUMBER OF DWELLINGS
12 23
8
30
2
<
- 1,000
1,001
- 5,000
5,001
- 10,000
10,001 - 15,000 15,001 - 20,000 9
15 11
20,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 30,000 30,001 - 35,000 35,001 - <
figure 8 1
AL FURJAN
6
DOWNTOWN BURJ KHALIFA
11 DUBAI SILICON OASIS
16 JUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCES
21 JUMEIRAH VILLAGE CIRCLE
26 CULTURE VILLAGE
2
ARABIAN RANCHES
7
DUBAI FESTIVAL CITY
12 DUBAI SPORTS CITY
17 JUMEIRAH GOLF ESTATES
22 JUMEIRAH VILLAGE TRIANGLE
27 DUBIOTECH
3
BUSINESS BAY
8
DUBAI INVESTMENTS PARK
13 EMIRATES LIVING
18 JUMEIRAH ISLANDS
23 3MOTOR CITY
28 UMM SUQEIM
4
DIFC
9
DUBAI LAND
14 IMPZ
19 JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS
24 PALM JUMEIRAH
29 AL BARSHA
DISCOVERY GARDENS
1
0DUBAI MARINA
15 INTERNATIONAL CITY
20 JUMEIRAH PARK
10 5
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015 25 TECOM 30 MIRDIF
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
Pipeline supply massing, Dubai Area
Market heat indices - pipeline supply 8
Dubai Investments Park
13 Emirates Living
21 Jumeirah Village Circle
9
Dubai Land
14 IMPZ
24 Palm Jumeirah
10 Dubai Marina
17 Jumeirah Golf Estates
26 Jumeirah Golf Estates
12 Sports City
19 Jumeirah Lakes Towers
figure 9
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Pipeline sample 2015-2018
Palm Jumeirah
1570
Dubai Marina
3631
JLT
2644
Dubailand
6895
Emirates Living
656
IMPZ
2317
JVC
4476
JVT
279
Sports City
7971
Dubai Investment Park
2098
Arabian Ranches
1651
MBR City
4107
Jumeirah Golf Estates
486
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
6.0 Regulation The following details a series of regulations that have impacted the residential market dynamics in Dubai.
Real estate regulations & practices Dubai source: cavendish maxwell
REGULATION (REGULATOR, DATE)
REGULATION
CURRENT IMPACT & FUTURE OPTIONS
Mortgage law
UAE National:
Current impact:
(Central Bank,
Property valued at AED 5 Million or less: LTV = 80 %
Reduction in demand in end user led locations
circular No: 31/2013)
Property valued at more than AED 5 Million: LTV = 70%
such as Emirates Living.
Non UAE National:
Future options:
Property valued at AED 5 Million or less: LTV = 75%
Central Bank could change LTVs to simulate the
Property valued at more than AED 5 Million: LTV = 65%
market in run up to the EXPO.
Limit of exposure to real
Limits developers exposure to real estate within lending
Current impact:
estate (Central Bank)
portfolios.
Led to a more selective approach to project financing. Future options: Not likely to see a change in the short to medium term.
Transfer fees
Doubling the transfer fee subjected on each sale to 4% of
Current impact:
(DLD, Executive Council
the property’s value.
Introduced at a time of high price hikes and
resolution No. (30) of 2013)
helped to cool demand and price escalation. Future options: A return to pre 2013 rates of 2% unlikely.
Disclosure of personal debt
Requires banks to share information on request regarding
Current impact:
(Central Bank)
personal debts during loan applications.
Improved transparency of personal debt and lending placed restrictions on those over leveraged. Future options: Here to stay.
Restrictions on investors of
Emaar led initiative requiring 40% payment on off-plan
Current impact:
off-plan projects
projects prior to re-sale. Majid Al Futtaim implemented
Contributed to stablising prices in the off-plan
(Developers)
similar terms on their developments.
market and reduced the activity of ‘flippers’. Future options: Other developers following suit.
figure 10
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
7.0 Economic factors Dubai inflation
GDP distribution: Dubai H1 2014
Source: Dubai Statistics Center & Cavendish Maxwell Projections
5%
0,1%
7%
0,1
Rate 2014: 3.37%
11% 1%
Q1 2015: 4.42%
7% 11%
3%
24%
12%
5%
13%
Agriculture, Live Stock and Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water Construction Wholesale, Retail Trade and Repairing Servises
Dubai Population (as of April 11, 2015) 2,355,287 Grant of New Visa 570,917 new residency visas issued in the first half of 2014 (30% higher than then first half of 2013)
figure 11
Population, Dubai
Nationals
Expats
Source: Dubai Statistics Center & Cavendish Maxwell Projections
CAGR (2007-2016): 5.3% 8%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%
2 Millions
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
6% 5%
2
4% 1
3% 2%
1
Percentage Growth
3
1% 0%
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
figure 12
8.1 Development finance • Major banks’ finance appetite for real estate still limited outside of one-off client relationships and top tier developers*. • This would exclude industry projects (schools, hospitals etc.) and built to-suit opportunities with pre-lets and secure income. • Encouraging signs that some major banks entering the market with more favourable real estate project finance products.
• *Tier 1. Government subsidiaries, track record in large scale projects and large land banks. • Tier 2. Established developers with track record & expertise. • Tier 3. Private parties with land plots, limited experience in development. Project finance rate: 5-6% constriction period / 4-5% investment period* *dependant upon borrower
“Regulatory measures have acted to cool the market and curb speculation. Increasing LTVs remains an option to stimulate the market in the run up to EXPO 2020.”
Debt Equity Ratios: 60*/40 * inclusive of land, exclusive of soft costs
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
8.2 Mortgage finance The following details a series of regulations that have impacted the residential market dynamics in Dubai. Real estate regulations & practices Dubai
Primary Axis: # of valuations Secondary Axis: Average price/sq.ft. (AED)
Source: Cavendish maxwell*
610
1500 1400
510
1300 410 Feb 2013 = 100
1200 310
1100 1000
210
900 110 800 10
700 600
figure 13
Dubai marketwide average price/sq.ft
Refinance
Mar - 15
Jan - 15
Nov - 14
Sep - 14
Jul - 14
May - 14
Mar - 14
Jan - 14
Nov - 13
Sep - 13
Jul - 13
May - 13
Mar - 13
-90
Sales
* the indices details activity of major UAE banks for whom Cavendish Maxwell have consistently conducted mortgage valuations during this time.
Key points • Volume of mortgage deals at the end of Q1 2015 are back down to levels recorded in March 2013, having peaked in between around Q1 2014.
14
• Around the peak we witnessed a spike in the level of refinanced mortgages following a drive from local banks with new products targeting this segment.
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
9.0 Sentiment Cavendish Maxwell’s first Residential Market Sentiment Survey, taking the temperature of the market to inform future movements.
Q1: Sale listings (Supply) vs. buyer enquires (demand) - Last 3 months • Majority of agents (58%) observed an increase in new seller instructions - increase in supply availability & willing sellers… • Majority of agents (44%) have seen a drop in new buyer enquiries lower buyer demand…
• Vast majority of agents (68%) feel that sales values will decline in Q2. Most agents (48%) indicated that this decrease in value would occur alongside an increase in sales activity. • With regards to the rate of decline, the majority of the agents (45%) expect a drop of 1% to 5% in the Q2 2015.
“The market has changed significantly- buyers are more sophisticated and speculators no longer have much opportunity for an easy profit.” Agent Comment
Sales Price & volumes in next 3 Months source: Property Monitor
80.00% 70.00% 60.00%
Above supportive of further reduction in prices.
50.00%
Q2: Buyer & seller expectations
40.00%
• Sellers: 51% have expectations that are above the achievable market price.
30.00%
• Buyers: 56% have expectations that are below the achievable market price. Gap to narrow which should increase transactional activity.
20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
Decrease
Sales price figure 14
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Increase
Remain the same
sales volume
“ The market has been on a roller-coaster ride from an incomparable boom to a free-fall after the Lehman Brother crisis. It’s in everybody’s interest – investors, landlords, the government and real estate professionals, to make sure that we witness a steady sustainable growth and prevent an overheating of the prices.” Agent Comment
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DUBAI MARKET TRENDS: FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET
“The market is more mature and different fundamentals have kicked in compared to the boom and bust years. Better investor protection will help to reinforce confidence in ‘under construction’ projects.” Agent Comment
9.0 Sentiment (cont.)
Rental price & volumes in next 3 months source: Property Monitor
80.00%
• Vast majority of agents (46%) feel that rental values will decline in Q2 2015. Most agents (58%) indicated that this decrease in value would occur alongside an increase in rental activity.
Q5: The EXPO Impact - Residential sale prices • 1 year impact (2015 - 2016): 81% of the agents see no impact • 3 year impact (2015 - 2018): 74% of the agents expect a positive impact • 5 year impact (2015 - 2020): 93% of the agents expect a positive impact
Q6: Trends post 2008 vs. trends post 2014 • 76% think that it is different this time around.
70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
Decrease
rental price
Increase
Remain the same
rental volume
figure 15
The market sentiment survey was participated by well reputed and established real estate agencies in the market including: - Ascot and Co - Real Estate - Bavarian Real Estate Brokers LLC - Better Homes Properties - Dacha Real Estate - Dart Link Real Estate Brokers LLC - Escola Real Estate - Exclusive Links Real Estate - Fine & Country UAE - Fortune 5 Real Estate - GGICO Properties - GIM Real Estate Broker - Gulf Platinum Properties - House Hunters Real Estate LLC - Kensington Real Estate - Ocean View Real Estate Dubai - Prime Places Real Estate - Q Properties - We Buy Your -Property.
“I very much believe end users are still in the market, however they are extremely educated and are shopping around before making any choices. It is definitely a buyer’s market and there are some great deals to be had.” Agent Comment
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Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Key facts: Q1 2015 Sales • Market average sales price: AED 1,344 per sq. ft.
• Lowest performing apartment area, gross rental yield (Q1 2015): Downtown Burj Khalifa, 5.57%
• Highest performing apartment area, sale price (YTD): Dubai Marina, Emirates Living, 2.60 %
• Lowest performing villa area, gross rental yield (Q1, 2015): Palm Jumeirah (Fronds) 3.67%
• Highest performing villa area, sale price (YTD): Jumeirah Golf Estates, 1.70% • Lowest performing apartment area, sale price (YTD): International City, -11.20% • Lowest performing villa area, sale price (YTD): Al Furjan, -11.23%.
Rental performance • Highest performing apartment area, gross rental yield (Q1 2015): International City, 9.26%
Supply • Largest supply pipeline, 2015: Dubai Sports City, 2,299 units.
Sentiment • 68% of agents feel that sales values will decline in the next 3 months • 48% of agents indicated that this decrease would occur alongside an increase in transactional activity. • 45% of agents expect a drop of 1% to 5% in the next 3 months.
• Highest performing villa area, gross rental yield: (Q1 2015): Victory Heights, Dubai Sports City, 5.42%
Residential Market Report | © Cavendish Maxwell 2015
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Residential Market Report | Š Cavendish Maxwell 2015
Residential Market Report | Š Cavendish Maxwell 2015
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Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons) Managing Partner M: +971 50 192 1658 E: jay.grant@cavendishmaxwell.com
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