Dubai Residential Market Report
Q4
2015
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Content • Price performance • Rent performance • Residential supply • Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey - Q4 2015
Sale price movement Q3 2015 - Q4 2015
-1%
-1%
Q4 2014 - Q4 2015
-6% © Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
-8% 2
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Sale performance Apartments • Apartment prices declined, on average, by 1% in Q4 2015, where International City declined slightly faster at 2%.
• During the last 12 months, apartment price declines varied significantly across Dubai, dropping an average of 6% with peripheral locations such as Discovery Gardens, International City and Motor City declining the most at 9%, 9% and 10% respectively.
Figure 1
Apartments sale performance 0%
2,500 -1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2%
2,000
Average price AED / sq V
-1%
-4%
1,500 -6%
-‐4%
-4%
-5% -6%
-‐2%
-6%
-6%
-‐6%
1,000
% change
-1%
-‐8% -9%
500
-9%
-‐10%
-10%
0
Business Bay
Q3 2015 © Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
Discovery Gardens
Q4 2015
Jumeirah Downtown Burj Dubai Marina Dubai Sports Emirates Living InternaOonal City Beach Khalifa City (Views and Greens) Residences Q3 2015 Q4 2015 QoQ % change 12 month change
QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015
12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015
Motor City Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apartments)
-‐12%
Source: Property Monitor Index
3
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Sale performance Villas • Villa prices have declined by an average of 1% in Q4 2015, slower than the 2% in Q3 2015. • On average, villa prices have declined by approximately 8% in the last 12 months. Prices at more established villa communities such as The Meadows and Springs declined by 12% and 18% respectively as buyers opted to purchase in the newer and upcoming communities.
Figure 2
Villas sale performance
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2% -‐2%
1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400
Average price Average price AED / s/q sq S ft AED
1,200 1,200
1,000 1,000
-7%
-8%
-6%
-4% -‐4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-7%
-10%
-‐10% -10% -12%
-‐12% -12%
600 600
-‐14% -14%
400 400
-‐16% -16%
200 200
Q3 2015
-6% -‐6%
-‐8% -8%
800 800
0 0
0% 0%
% change
1,800 1,800
-‐18% -18%
-18%
Al Furjan Arabian Arabian Jumeirah Jumeirah Jumeirah Jumeirah Jumeirah Al Furjan Golf Jumeirah Villas Ranches Ranches Golf Estates Islands Islands Park Villas Estates Park
Q4 2015
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015 Q3 2015
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
Q4 2015
Jumeirah The The Lakes Lakes Jumeirah Village Village Triangle Triangle
QoQ % change
The The Springs Springs The The Meadows Meadows
12 month change
12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015
QoQ % change
12 month change
Victory Victory Heights Heights
-‐20% -20%
Source: Property Monitor Index
4
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Rent performance Apartments
Villas
• Apartment rents have slightly declined by 1% in Q4 2015 and approximately 3% during 2015 across Dubai.
• Villa rents have followed a similar trend as apartments with an average drop of 1% in Q4 2015 from Q3 2015 and a 3% decline during 2015.
• The rate of decline varies from one development to another with International City rents declining at a higher rate of 2%, similar to the sale price trend in Q4 2015.
• Rents in prime villa communities such as Arabian Ranches, Jumeirah Golf Estates and Jumeirah Islands remained relatively stable in Q4 2015 as in Q3 2015.
• On average, studio rental rates have increased while one and two bed rents have during Q4 2015.
Apartments rental performance Rental rate AED/sq ft/annum Q4 2015
Villas rental performance Studio
1 bed
2 bed
Business Bay
97
94
89
Discovery Gardens
88
65
-
Dubai Marina
122
111
Dubai Sports City
96
International City
72
Rental rate AED/sq ft/annum Q4 2015
3 bed
4 bed
5 bed
Al Furjan Villas
49
-
42
Arabian Ranches
69
70
70
106
Jumeirah Golf Estates
70
63
60
71
70
Jumeirah Islands
-
59
61
65
52
Jumeirah Park
64
61
62
Jumeirah Beach Residences
111
116
115
Jumeirah Village Triangle
55
53
-
Motor City
84
70
69
The Lakes
76
75
86
-
111
107
The Meadows
64
62
66
The Greens
147
111
102
The Springs
74
70
-
The Views
150
118
107
Victory Heights
-
75
70
Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apartments)
Figure 3
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
• Rents of three and five bed villas remained stable, whereas four bed villa rents have declined in Q4 2015.
Source: Property Monitor Index
Figure 4
Source: Property Monitor Index
5
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Residential supply 2015 Completions • Approximately 8,800 additional residential units entered the Dubai market in 2015. • Over 70% of those are apartments with the remainder being villas and townhouses. • Major completions in Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubailand.
Pipeline • Approximately 7,000 units have been delayed from 2015 to 2016. • Excluding those, 30,000 units have been scheduled for delivery in 2016, which may be subject to potential delays. • The Dubai government budget for 2016 was increased by 12% to AED 46.1 billion, of which 14% allocated to infrastructure, which shows continued commitment toward the growth of Dubai leading up to 2020.
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
6
Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey Looking back - Q4 2015 - sales and rents
vs
predictions
reality
36% of agents surveyed had predicted villa prices to decline by up to 5%
Villa prices fell by 1%
40% of agents surveyed had predicted apartment prices to remain unchanged.
Apartment prices fell by 1%
Majority of agents surveyed had predicted that rents would remain the same for both apartments and villas.
Apartment and villa rents declined by 1%
Q1 2016 sales outlook
Q1 20165 rents outlook
Apartments Percentage of agents who predicted apartment prices would: 0% 14%
Villas Percentage of agents who predicted villa prices would: 0% 5%
7%
9%
18%
38%
33%
increase by up to 5%
not change
Figure 8
Š Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com
decrease by up to 5%
Villas Percentage of agents who predicted villa rents would: 2% 14%
11%
34% 34%
43%
39%
46%
increase by more than 5%
Apartments Percentage of agents who predicted apartment rents would: 3%
decrease by more than 5%
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey
increase by more than 5% Figure 9
increase by up to 5%
not change
decrease by up to 5%
5%
45%
decrease by more than 5%
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey
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