Coastal Carolinas Association of REALTORS© Market Update February 8th, 2024 John Hunt – ViaSearch/MarketNsight jrhunt@marketnsight.com (770) 419-9891 Your Market…. In Sight
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Speaking of Being Right……. What Did We Say In July 2022???
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GRMCA Annual Meeting Housing Market Forecast July 28, 2022 John Hunt – ViaSearch/MarketNsight jrhunt@marketnsight.com (770) 419-9891 Your Market…. In Sight
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Many pundits are saying that Rising interest rates will help increase inventory as housing demand cools. The exact opposite is going to happen. Inventory is going to get worse. The reason? The second biggest demographic group, The Boomers, are sitting on their homes when they should be selling them to take advantage of skyrocketing prices. . Why aren't they moving? Because there's nowhere for them to go. Now, even if they could find a place to go, they will not trade in their 3% mortgage for a 5% mortgage. 8%!! Your Market…. In Sight
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We Were The First To Predict The “Lock In” Effect
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Is There a Housing Shortage? There Was Already a Housing Shortage Before the Pandemic. The Pandemic Housing Boom Made it Worse... …And Current Market Conditions Will Only Deepen the Crisis. Your Market…. In Sight
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Total US Housing Starts and US Population Total Starts
Population
4000
340
3500
330 320
Total Housing Deficit
2500
310 300
2000 290 1500
Population In Millions
Total Starts In Thousands
3000
280 1000
270
20 22
20 21
20 20
20 19
20 18
20 17
20 16
20 15
20 14
20 13
20 12
20 11
20 10
20 09
20 08
20 07
20 06
20 05
20 04
20 03
250 20 02
0 20 01
260
20 00
500
Axis Title
Your Market…. In Sight
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Inventory and Months of Supply Trending Myrtle Beach, SC 8500
8,500 Unit Annual Housing Deficit
6
8000 7500 5
7000 6500 6000
Inventory
5000 4500
3
4000 3500 3000
2
2500
Months of Supply
4
5500
2000 1500
1
1000 500 0
0
2 1 2 1 2 1 21 21 2 1 21 21 21 21 21 21 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 22 2 2 22 22 22 22 22 22 2 3 2 3 2 3 23 23 2 3 23 23 23 23 23 23 n - b - r- r- y- n - l - g- p- ct- v- c- n - b - r- r- y- n - l - g- p- ct- v- c- n - b - r- r- y- n - l - g- p- ct- v- cJa Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se O No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se O No De Ja Fe Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au Se O No De
Total Inventory
Your Market…. In Sight
Months of Supply YTY
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The National Media is ALWAYS 2 Months Behind MarketNsight!! In June 2022, We Reinstated Weekly Market Updates as Rates Began Exploding
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Want to See April National Headlines Today??? Pending Sales From a Few Days Ago…….
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8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50%
First Time Above 5.25%
7.76%
7.08% 35%
16 Weeks Over 7%!!
30% 25% 20%
6.63%
15% 10% 5% 0%
5.25%
-5% -10% -15% -20% -25%
2022 Bottom
-30%
2023 Down 13% YTD 2023 Down 22% vs 2019
-35%
-37% -40%
On Nov 14th We Said The Bottom
-33%
Pending Sales YTY Trend
30 Year Fixed Rate
Weekly Pending Sales YTY % Change Jan Week 1 2022 Through January 31st, 2024
Was Near. We Were Correct!!
-45% -50%
3 3 4 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 202 1 W W tW tW tW W tW r W r W rW rW W W W lW W lW W W W W W W W W J an F eb a rc h Apri Ma y J une J uly ugus Sep Oc N ov D ec J an F eb a rc h Apri Ma y J une J uly ugus embe c tobe m be m be nuary M M A A ept O N ove D ece J a S
30 Year Fixed Rate
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Pending Sales v Previous Year
Pending Sales v 2019
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The Stages of Grief…… 1. Denial: this can't be happening! 2. Anger: Ugh, Stupid Fed! 3. Bargaining: maybe if I adjust my price point, I can buy a house? 4. Depression: well, I'm just not going to buy a house in my lifetime. 5. Acceptance: at least I'm not paying 17% like my parents. Put in an offer! Your Market…. In Sight
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There is Some Good News….. Despite The Fed!!
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Job Report Projections vs. Reality Projected
Actual
January 2023
187,000
517,000
February 2023
225,000
311,000
March 2023
238,000
236,000
April 2023
180,000
253,000
May 2023
190,000
339,000
June 2023
240,000
209,000
July 2023
200,000
187,000
August 2023
170,000
187,000
September 2023
170,000
336,000
October 2023
170,000
150,000
November 2023
190,000
199,000
December 2023
170,000
216,000
Source: CNBC
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3,140,000 Jobs Added in 2023! Copyright© 2024 MarketNsight
“Hard Landing”? “Soft Landing”? “No Landing”?
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-embrace-notion-of-no-landing-for-economy-in-2024-a45fd60e
How Is Myrtle Beach Doing??
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Horry County Resale Individual and Top New Subdivisions
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Population Change 2010-2020
https://maps.geo.census.gov/ddmv/map.html
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Myrtle Beach
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT453482000000005?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
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Myrtle Beach
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT453482000000005?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
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https://netmigration.wisc.edu
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https://netmigration.wisc.edu
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What About Closings??
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Ja Fen- 2 0 M b-2 ar 0 Ap -2 M r- 20 a 0 J uy- 2 n 0 J u -2 0 Au l- 2 0 Seg- 2 0 p O -2 ct 0 No -2 0 Dev -2 0 c Ja - 2 0 Fen- 2 1 M b-2 ar 1 Ap -2 M r- 21 a 1 J uy- 2 n 1 J u -2 1 Au l- 2 1 Seg- 2 1 p O -2 ct 1 No -2 1 Dev -2 1 c Ja - 2 1 Fen- 2 2 b M -2 ar 2 Ap -2 M r- 22 a 2 J uy- 2 n 2 J u -2 2 Au l- 2 2 Seg- 2 p- 2 O 2 c 2 No t -2 2 Dev -2 2 J ac- 2 2 Fen- 2 3 M b-2 ar 3 Ap -2 M r- 23 a 3 J uy- 2 n 3 J u -2 3 Au l- 2 3 Seg- 2 p- 3 O 2 c 3 No t -2 v- 3 23
YTY Change
Myrtle Beach YTY Change in Closings
140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
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First Time Above 5.25% New YTY Change Resale YTY Change
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What About Price??
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Ja Fen- 2 0 M b-2 ar 0 Ap -2 M r- 20 a 0 J uy- 2 n 0 J u -2 0 Au l- 2 0 Seg- 2 p- 0 O 2 c 0 No t -2 0 Dev -2 0 J ac- 2 0 Fen- 2 1 M b-2 ar 1 Ap -2 M r- 21 a 1 J uy- 2 n 1 J u -2 1 Au l- 2 1 Seg- 2 p- 1 O 2 c 1 No t -2 1 Dev -2 1 J ac- 2 1 Fen- 2 2 M b-2 ar 2 Ap -2 M r- 22 a 2 J uy- 2 n 2 J u -2 2 Au l- 2 2 Seg- 2 p- 2 O 2 c 2 No t -2 2 Dev -2 2 J ac- 2 2 Fen- 2 3 M b-2 ar 3 Ap -2 M r- 23 a 3 J uy- 2 n 3 J u -2 3 Au l- 2 3 Seg- 2 p- 3 O 2 c 3 No t -2 3 Dev -2 3 c23
YTY Change
Myrtle Beach YTY Change in Closed Price YTY Change
35%
30%
Your Market…. In Sight
December 2023 Up 24% Over 2021 Up 44% Over 2020 Up 67% Over 2019
25%
2022 Up 22% YTY
20%
2021 Up 14% YTY
15%
December Up 8% YTY
10%
5%
0%
2023 Up 7% YTD
48 Year Average = 4.6%
-5%
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2022-2023 Monthly Total Pending Sales YTY Change by Price Myrtle Beach Jan-22 Sep-22 May-23
Feb-22 Oct-22 Jun-23
Mar-22 Nov-22 Jul-23
Apr-22 Dec-22 Aug-23
May-22 Jan-23 Sep-23
Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
Jul-22 Mar-23 Nov-23
Aug-22 Apr-23 Dec-23
70%
YTY Change
50% 30% 10% -10% -30% -50% -70% k 200 $ r e Und
$20
Your Market…. In Sight
0
$ k to
300
k $30
0
$ k to
500
k $50
0
$ k to
700
k $70
0
$ k to
1M
r Ove
$1M
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What are Myrtle Beach’s Hottest Markets??
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Robert Dietz – NAHB Chief Economist Entry-level buyers are driving much of the activity. Sales of homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range increased more than 35% in October from a year earlier. Demand for starter homes is expected to fuel continued sales growth if builders can ramp up construction quickly enough. Builders face a number of challenges, such as high land costs, labor shortages and rising material prices.
"The markets that are going to grow are ones where builders can add that entry level product." Your Market…. In Sight
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Myrtle Beach Top HSD For New Home Sales 2021 High School
Your Market…. In Sight
Units Sold
Avg Price
Carolina Forest
1038
$345,245
North Myrtle Beach St. James-Horry
1001 487
$327,569 $325,278
Myrtle Beach High
463
$441,122
Conway
427
$239,867
Socastee
420
$322,853
Loris Waccamaw
276 264
$237,146 $377,741
West Brunswick
193
$310,524
Aynor
137
$241,198
Georgetown
72
$280,225
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Myrtle Beach Top HSD For New Home Sales 2023 High School
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Units Sold
Avg Price
Carolina Forest
1761
$408,039
North Myrtle Beach St. James
1168 646
$422,336 $429,455
Myrtle Beach High
491
$547,915
Conway
452
$294,837
Loris
369
$309,982
Socastee West Brunswick
358 196
$370,443 $384,796
Aynor
154
$311,062
Waccamaw-Georgetown
84
$713,841
Georgetown
69
$368,918
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In 2016, Sales Under $350,000 were 70% of the Market. Today, Sales Under $350,000 are 30% of the Market.
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How Do We Build in the $300’s??
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Carolina Forest HSD
$426k $142 PPSF $303k $152 PPSF $238k $160 PPSF
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Our Current Zoning is based on the demographic makeup of the world 20-30 years ago.
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• Disposable Income • No Kids!!! • Entertainment Oriented
The Location is the Amenity!!
We have the two biggest consumer groups in the country converging in the middle in terms of square footage. Unfortunately, the middle…… Is missing. We need more 1750, 1500, 1250, and 950 SF Product The Market Wants it….. Most Cities are Predisposed Against Density Your Market…. In Sight
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Missing Middle Housing
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Greenville Housing Forum November 2018 Keynote Speaker: Karen Parolek of Opticos The Leading Expert in Missing Middle Housing Co Speaker: Me Attendees Included: • The Mayor • City Council Members • County Commissioners • Stake Holders • Builders • Realtors Your Market…. In Sight
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The Missing Middle??? Multi-unit housing types such as duplexes, fourplexes, bungalow courts, and mansion apartments that are not bigger than a large house, that are integrated throughout most walkable pre-1940s neighborhoods, often integrated into blocks with primarily single-family homes, and that provide diverse housing choices and generate enough density to support transit and locally-serving commercial amenities.
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Missing Middle is…..
A Single Family Home
With a Duplex Next Door
Illegal In Most Cities Today!!! Your Market…. In Sight
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Why Don’t We Zone This Way Anymore?? In the 1920s, the White House convened a task force to push cities to adopt zoning codes. Official documents did not mention race, but the members of the task force were outspoken segregationists, and zoning was seen as a method to keep certain neighborhoods white by keeping the price of homes high. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/how-the-missing-middle-may-help-create-89060/
Government Sanctioned Socioeconomic Bigotry!!!! Your Market…. In Sight
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Your Market…. In Sight
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We are witnessing an all-out War being waged on housing affordability in our country. It is being waged not only by rising material costs, or rising rates, inflation or labor costs.
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It is also being waged by restrictive and exclusionary zoning. This is THE Defining Issue of Our Time We Are Starting to Make Some Progress…..
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Prairie Queen, Nebraska
https://opticosdesign.com/
July 11, 2023
https://austin.towers.net/austin-finally-faces-down-the-housing-crisis-with-singlefamily-zoning-reform/
https://fortune.com/2023/08/09/minneapolis-housing-zoning-real-estate-inflation-yimby-nimbyminnesota/#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16916566324178&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F08%2F09%2Fminneapolis-
https://www.businessinsider.com/houston-building-cheap-new-starter-homes-real-estate-construction-lots-2024-1
https://www.businessinsider.com/houston-building-cheap-new-starter-homes-real-estate-construction-lots-2024-1
Forecast
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Permit Trend 1/2017 – 12/2023 Myrtle Beach Permits/Month
Monthly Year-to-Year % Chg
TTM Moving Avg Year-to-Year % Chg
Year-to-Date Year-to-Year % Chg
1400 1300
Pandemic Boom
1200 1100
No Lot Inventory High Rates
No Resale 100% Inventory New Homes 90% Surge 80% 70%
1000
60%
Start of Pandemic
900 800
50% 40%
700
30%
600
20%
500
10%
400
-30% 20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Your Market…. In Sight
23
0 22
-20%
21
100
20
-10%
19
200
18
0%
17
300
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Myrtle Beach Permit Forecast 2024 Permits
Year-to-Year Change
13
90%
12
80% 70%
Closings (000's)
11
60%
10
50%
9
40%
8
30% 20%
7
10%
6
0%
5
-10%
4
-20% -30%
3
-40%
2 20 3 24 f
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
19
18
20
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
13
20
20
12
11
20
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
20
20
20
20
Your Market…. In Sight
07
-60% 06
1 05
-50% 04
2
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What’s Your Forecast???
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https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-forecast-outlook-home-prices-mortgage-interest-rates-experts-2023-9#2-barbara-corcoran-2
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-forecast-outlook-home-prices-mortgage-interest-rates-experts-2023-9#2-barbara-corcoran-2
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing -market-forecast-outlook-home-prices-mortgage-interestrates-experts-2023-9#2-barbara-corcoran-2
Coastal Carolinas Association of REALTORS© Market Update February 8th, 2024 John Hunt – ViaSearch/MarketNsight jrhunt@marketnsight.com (770) 419-9891 Your Market…. In Sight
Copyright© 2024 MarketNsight