Trend Report 2007 The Future of Publishing Trends for the Bookmarket 2020
Class of 2008WT
Trend Report 2007: The Future of Publishing, Trends for the Bookmarket 2020 Edited by: Bernhard Kirchmair Nikolaus Konrad Philip Mayrhofer Patrick Nepper Uwe Sandner Copyright 2008 Center for Digital Technology and Management Arcisstr. 21 80290 München, Germany E-Mail: info@cdtm.de Web: http://www.cdtm.de ISBN: 978-3-9812203-0-8 The Center for Digital Technology and Management (CDTM) is a joint institution of the Technische Universität München (TUM) and the Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversität München (LMU). This report was created by the CDTM students and is one element of a comprehensive research project, sponsored by Georg von Holtzbrinck GmbH publishing group. The CDTM is part of the Elitenetzwerk Bayern.
Board of Directors: Prof. Manfred Broy, Chair for Software & Systems Engineering, TUM Prof. Bernd Brügge, Chair for Applied Software Engineering, TUM Prof. Dr.-Ing. Klaus Diepold, Institute for Data Processing, TUM Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jörg Eberspächer, Institute for Communication Networks, TUM Prof. Dietmar Harhoff, Ph.D., Institute for Innovation Research, Technology Management and Entrepreneurship, LMU Prof. Heinz-Gerd Heggering, Chair for Communication Systems and Computer Networks, LMU Prof. Dr. Thomas Hess, Institute for Information Systems, LMU Prof. Dr. Helmut Krcmar, Chair for Information Systems, TUM Prof. Dr. Tobias Kretschmer, Institute for Communication Economics, LMU Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Arnold Picot, Institute for Information, Organisation and Management, LMU
Preface Books are haptic goods which can be substituted only with difficulty by digital media in certain scenarios of utilization. Although this appraisal is still correct today, the book branch as a subsector of the media industry is faced with digitization-induced changes. The meanwhile established selling of books on the internet is accompanied by the proposition of additional services. Topical examples like gathering recommendations for books in the community LovelyBooks or the initiatives of Google book search and libreka! for on-line full text search show huge potential for further scenarios. Besides these valuable developments digitization nevertheless comprises risks for the book branch. On this account referring to their own statements many established publishers and bookstores are looking for strategies that can cope with these changes and prepare them for conceivable future evolutions. The present Trend Report starts off at exactly this point. Upon 250 pages it contains the results of the Trend Seminar on the topic The Future of Publishing and therefore illustrates a practically oriented insight into the contemporary and future trends of the book branch. The Trend Seminar is held at the Center for Digital Technology and Management (CDTM) which as a joint initiative of the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU) and the Technische Universit채t M체nchen (TUM) is a practical oriented center of excellence and therefore part of the Elite Netzwerk Bayern (ENB). The gathered information and the thereby crafted knowledge is displayed in a two step approach. While the first part of this report illustrates the basic changes and drivers in the book market, the second part introduces possible future scenarios and respectively adopted business models. Talking in terms of results, a valuable reference book is at hand which processes the digitization-induced trends as well as promising scenarios within the book branch and delivers helpful suggestions to both beginners and experts. Thomas Hess, Professor at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Member of the Board of the CDTM Munich, January 2008 3
PREFACE
The entire Trend Report was written by CDTM students in 2006/2007. The papers compiled here do not claim to be scientifically accurate in every case; they are rather meant to give a structured an broad overview of trends relevant in the context of the future of the Publishing market. 4
Contents I Research Report 1
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Technology Push: Technology as driver for product and service innovations 1.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Book Market Driving Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Access to Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Storing Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.3 Usability of Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.4 Visualization of Content . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 New Innovative Products 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Printed Books Featured with New Technology 1.3.2 Mobile Handheld-Devices Combining Reading ing Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3 Head Mounted Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.4 Digital Home Library . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Consequences for the Publishers . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1 Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.2 Chances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.3 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Value Added Services for the book market of 2020 2.1 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Services close to the Core Product . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Information Management and Language Settings 2.3.2 Customizing Books . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Going Beyond the Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Providing Additional Content . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2 Theme Worlds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.3 User-Generated Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.4 Interactivity with the Author . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.5 Business Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
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Market pull: New target groups and usage scenarios 3.1 Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 General trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Development of society and human beings 3.2.2 Trends in the media market . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Trends of the book market 2020 . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Classification of book customers . . . . . . 3.3.2 Usage scenarios and customer behaviour . 3.3.3 Upcoming challenges: . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Additional Products . . . . . . . . 2.5.1 Packages and Cross-Sellings 2.5.2 Give Aways . . . . . . . . . 2.5.3 Coupons . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Impact of technology on user’s information and decision process 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Information & buying processes of different reader groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Core target groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Additional target groups with potential . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Barely accessible reader groups . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Identification of technological innovations and basic trends . . 4.3.1 Offline innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Online trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 Possible scenarios related to the information & sales process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 How to stimulate sales in the book store . . . . . . . . 4.4.2 How to stimulate online sales . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Distribution Channels and Legal Issues 5.1 Legal Issues and DRM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 Changes in property rights . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 Developments and Trends in DRM . . . . . . . . 5.2 New B2B Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Distribution Channels for physical books in 2020 5.2.2 Distribution Channels for digital books in 2020 . 5.3 New B2C Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Online Retail of Physical Books . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Digital Content and e-Books . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Print on Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Fiction for young people in 2020 6.1 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 The VIB - Virtual Interactive Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 Mockup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2 Overview: What’s VIB? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3 Virtuality - The user dives into the world of the book . . . . 6.3.4 Interactivity - The user takes an active role while consuming a book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.5 Virtuality and Interactivity come together . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.6 More features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.7 Customer Value - Why should a customer buy VIB? . . . . 6.4 Technological aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.1 E-book devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.2 Multilayer content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.3 Intelligent homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.4 Internet Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 Market & Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5.1 Customer segmentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5.2 Market segmentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5.3 Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.1 Value chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.2 Packages and customer segmentation . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.3 Sales strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.4 Revenue generators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.5 Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.6 Partner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 Risk analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7.1 Technology risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7.2 Content risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7.3 Acceptance risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7.4 Substitute risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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The Health Guidebook for Women in 2020 7.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Product Description . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Composition of the Health Guidebook 7.3.3 Customer Segmentation . . . . . . .
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7.3.4 Content Creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.5 Accessing and Filtering the relevant Content 7.3.6 Presentation of the Core Content . . . . . . . 7.3.7 Value Added Services . . . . . . . . . . . . Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1 Defining the Relevant Market . . . . . . . . 7.4.2 Market Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.3 Market Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.1 Value Chain and Players . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.2 Product and Positioning . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.3 Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.4 Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.5 Business Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Don’t Panic - The Future of the Encyclopedia 8.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 User needs and Enabling Technologies . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Quality of Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Amount of Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.3 Up-To-Dateness of Content . . . . . . . . . 8.3.4 Location-Based Content . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.5 Global Access of Content . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.6 Personalized Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 Drivers for Future Development . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.1 Acceptance of Specialized Reading Devices . 8.4.2 Readiness to Pay for Content . . . . . . . . . 8.4.3 Drivers and Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 Digital Assistant Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5.2 Product Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5.3 Market Development and Future Competitors 8.5.4 Marketing and Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 iHoltz Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6.2 Product Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6.3 Market Development and Future Competitors 8.6.4 Marketing and Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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9 Stuff that Matters - The Reference Book of the Future 9.1 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 Product & Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.1 Main Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.2 Basic Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.3 Customer Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.4 The Evaluation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.5 Custom-made compilations via Ranking System . . . . 9.3.6 Integrated Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.1 Value Chain, players & cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.2 Benefits of the publishers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.3 Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.4 Distribution of content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.5 Risk of cannibalizing the single articles business . . . . 9.4.6 Make or buy - Competition with customers? . . . . . . 9.4.7 Scientific content as success factor of the market entry . 9.5 Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.1 Target Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.2 Potential and Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.3 Competitors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 Technological Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6.1 Access to Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6.2 Visualization of Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6.3 Usability of content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 Value Added Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7.1 Interactive training scenarios and advanced visualization 9.7.2 Individual Teaching and knowledge management . . . . 9.7.3 Audiobook versions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7.4 Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7.5 Content for audible reference books and customer group 9.8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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10 Lifestyle Magazine for Yuppies in 2020 10.1 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 The Young Urban Professional and his needs . . . . . . 10.2.1 Characteristics of the yuppie . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.2 The needs of the yuppie in the year 2020 . . . . 10.2.3 The inadequacies of the lifestyle magazines today 10.3 Introduction to the yPlanet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Technological Requirements for yPlanet . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1 Communication with the surroundings . . . . . . 10.4.2 Real time determination of location . . . . . . .
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10.4.3 Peer-to-peer communication . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.4 Rapid wireless connection . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.5 Flexible screen displays . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.1 Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.2 Syndicated content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.3 Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 Content creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6.2 Multimedia content - as good as it gets? . . . . . 10.6.3 The three pillars of content creation in 2020 . . . 10.6.4 Editorial generated content . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6.5 Syndicated content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6.6 User generated content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6.7 Important Trends with impact on lifestyle topics 10.7 Content Bundling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7.2 Digitization as an enabler . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7.3 Advertising benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7.4 Privacy aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 Branding and Advertisement of yPlanet . . . . . . . . . 10.8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8.2 Branding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8.3 Advertisement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 Content Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.10Value Added Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.10.2 Coupons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.10.3 Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.11Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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