Human-Machine-Interaction in Individual Mobility. Trend Report 2013 by Center for Digital Technology and Management

Human-Machine-Interaction in Individual Mobility Trend Report 2013

Other CDTM print publications M. Huber, C. Bachmeier, A.Buttermann, S.Vogel, P. Dornbusch (Eds.) Smart Dust ISBN 978-3-8311-4297-2. 2002. X, 280 p. M. Huber, P. Dornbusch, J. Landgrebe, M. Möller, M. Zündt (Eds.) Visions of Advanced Mobile Communications ISBN 978-3-9808842-0-4. 2003 VII, 272 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Huber, M. Möller, J. Landgrebe, M. Zündt (Eds.) Leveraging Business with Web Services ISBN 978-3-9808842-1-1. 2003. VI, 238 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Huber, J. Landgrebe, M. Möller, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) The Future of Telematics: New Business Concepts and Technologies ISBN 978-3-9808842-2-8. 2004. XII, 370 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Möller, J. Landgrebe, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) Generation 50 Plus - Products and Services in the TIME Sector ISBN 978-3-9808842-3-5. 2005. VII, 338 p. P. Dornbusch, U. Sandner, P. Sties, M. Zündt (Eds.) Fixed Mobile Convergence ISBN 978-3-9808842-4-2. 2005. V, 259 p. B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) Seamless Context-Aware Services in Converged Mobile- and Enterprise-Networks ISBN 978-3-9808842-6-6. 2007. 344 p. A. Balevic, B. Bozionek, B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner (Eds.) Effective Collaboration in Dynamic Communities with Service-oriented Architectures ISBN 978-3-9808842-7-3. 2007. VI, 150 p.

B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner (Eds.) The Future of Publishing Trends for the Bookmarket 2020 ISBN 978-3-9812203-0-8. 2008. 260 p. P. Nepper, N. Konrad (Eds.) The Future of Social Commerce ISBN 978-3-9812203-1-5. 2009. XX, 320 p. M.-L. Lorenz, P. Nepper, N. Konrad (Eds) The Service Centric Car in 2020 ISBN 978-3-9812203-4-6. 2009. XXII, 304 p. M.-L. Lorenz, C. Menkens, N. Konrad (Eds.) E-Energy ISBN 978-3-9812203-5-3. 2009. XXVIII, 382 p. M.-L. Lorenz, C. Menkens, J. Sußmann, N. Konrad (Eds.) Developer Platforms and Communities in the Telecom Industry ISBN 978-3-9812203-6-0. 2010. XXVI, 356 p. B. Römer, J. Sußmann, C. Menkens, M.-L. Lorenz, P. Mayrhofer (Eds.) Smart Grid Infrastructures ISBN 978-3-9812203-7-7. 2011. XXVI, 333 p. J. Sußmann, B. Römer (Eds.) Urban Mobility Concepts ISBN 978-3-9812203-8-4. 2011. XXII, 382 p. J. Sußmann, B. Römer (Eds.) Ambient Assisted Living ISBN 978-3-9812203-9-1. 2011. XXIII, 307 p. M. Schadhauser, J. Sußmann, B. Römer (Eds.) The Future of Real-Time Communication ISBN 978-3-9815538-1-9. 2012. XXIII, 299 p.

Veronika Gamper 路 Stefan Nothelfer 路 Michael Schadhauser (Editors)

Human-Machine-Interaction in Individual Mobility Trend Report 2013

Class 2013 Spring Center for Digital Technology and Management

Human-Machine-Interaction in Individual Mobility. Trend Report 2013 Edited by: Veronika Gamper, Stefan Nothelfer, Michael Schadhauser ISBN: 978-3-9815538-2-6 Biblografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. © 2013 Center for Digital Technology and Management, Munich, Germany Printed in Germany This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitations, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from the Center for Digital Technology and Management. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and thereof free for general use. The Center for Digital Technology and Management (CDTM) is a joint institution of the Technische Universität München (TUM) and the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU). This report was created by CDTM students and is part of a project cooperation with Audi Electronics Venture. The CDTM is part of the Elitenetzwerk Bayern. Board of Directors: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Manfred Broy (TUM) Prof. Bernd Brügge, Ph.D. (TUM) Prof. Dr. Andreas Butz (LMU) Prof. Dr.-Ing. Klaus Diepold (TUM) Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jörg Eberspächer (TUM) Prof. Dietmar Harhoff, M.P.A. Ph.D. (LMU) Prof. Dr. Heinz-Gerd Hegering (LMU) Prof. Dr. Thomas Hess (LMU) Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wolfgang Kellerer (TUM) Prof. Dr. Dieter Kranzlmüller (LMU) Prof. Dr. Tobias Kretschmer (LMU) Prof. Dr. Helmut Krcmar (TUM) Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Arnold Picot (LMU) Prof. Dr. Martin Spann (LMU) Prof. Dr, Isabell Welpe (TUM) Center for Digital Technology and Management Marsstr. 20-22, 80335 Munich, Germany E-Mail: info@cdtm.de Web: http://www.cdtm.de

Preface

Preface of the Editors “Everybody can learn from the past. Today it is important to learn from the future.” As the statement by Herman Kahn, one of the founding fathers of modern scenario planning, nicely states, it is tremendously important for strategy and policy makers to get a deep understanding of possible future developments in order to be prepared for them. We will give a brief overview on the approach behind the creation of this trend report, which involved the creation of future scenarios and the development of innovative product and service ideas. This approach has been developed and refined over the last thirteen years in over twenty projects. The goal is to create trend studies and business ideas in the field of information and communication technologies (ICT). Thereby, we rely on a tight cooperation between industry partners and academia. Combining the creativity and external view of interdisciplinary participants from academia with the knowledge of larger corporations, the outcome are long-term foresights and innovative ideas on how to prepare for emerging challenges in a certain field and product and service ideas that may solve future needs. Recent industry partners were large corporations, for instance Siemens AG, Telekom Innovation Laboratories and BMW AG. Topics were diverse, ranging from Smart Grid Infrastructures and Ambient Assisted Living Technologies to Urban Mobility Concepts. The Trend Seminar at CDTM is a university course with around 20-25 selected students of various disciplines, such as business administration, economics, computer science or electrical engineering that work on a relevant topic related to ICT. After the topic has been defined, it is broken down into smaller modules, that are then worked on by smaller, interdisciplinary teams. The course stretches over seven intense weeks, fulltime, during which the participating students dive deeply into the new topic. Thereby, they apply the knowledge they bring along from their main studies and extend it by extensive research. They learn and apply new methodologies, conduct trend analyses, design future scenarios and develop business ideas for innovative products or services. The Trend Seminar is structured into three phases: The Basic Phase, the Scenario Phase and the Ideation Phase. In the Basic Phase, the class is split into five teams that look at different aspects of the overall topic. Following the PESTLE approach, the status quo and trends in the fields of technology, society, economy, politics, law, environment and business are analyzed. Knowledge is gathered by literature research, preceded by a series of input presentations by industry experts, held by our project partner or other organizations. At the end of the Basic Phase, teams present their key findings to each other in order for everyone to get a holistic view on the topic to build upon in the following phases.

Preface

The following Scenario Phase starts with a two-day workshop. Participants work in four teams, newly formed in order to have experts from every subtopic of the Basic phase in each new Scenario team. Within the workshop driving forces for the overall topic are identified and structured. Two key drivers are identified, which span a matrix of four different future scenarios of approx. fifteen years ahead. The scenarios as well as possible timelines to these diverse futures are sketched out within the workshop. After the workshop, each team elaborates a vivid view of the life in one of the four scenarios. In the third phase, the Ideation Phase, participants are again regrouped into new teams. The goal of this phase is to develop innovative business concepts, which are then tested against the previously developed scenarios. The phase starts with a two-day workshop on ideation methods. Based on the work by Jacob Goldenberg, Roni Horowitz, Amnon Levav and David Mazursky, the applied ideation methods are a structured way to develop new products or services. At the end of the workshop each team is equipped with a broad set of ideas. Out of these, the most promising five ideas are selected and further developed into detailed business concepts. The business model canvas, developed by Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur, serves as base structure. At the end of the seminar, the business model concepts are presented to the project partner and guests. We would like to take the opportunity to thank several people who made this CDTM Trend Report possible: We want to thank Andre Hainzlmaier at our project partner Audi Electronics Venture, who helped to define the topic and scope of the project and, together with his colleagues, provided great insight into current trends and future developments in the field. We also want to thank Felix von Held and Felix Werle for their support in the Scenario and Ideation Phases. Their experience and motivation always results in a great workshop atmosphere and excellent outcomes. Finally, we want to say special thanks to the CDTM students of the class of spring 2013. They put an enormous amount of energy and enthusiasm into this project, which made it a pleasure for us to supervise the course and coach the individual teams. We hope you enjoy reading up on the results of this trend report and maybe get some inspirations on the future development of Human-Machine-Interaction in individual mobility.

Veronika Gamper and Michael Schadhauser Center for Digital Technology and Management

Preface

vii

Preface The world of individual mobility is facing times of radical change. This change is not only due to technological advancements, but also due to the social, political, ecologic, and economic changes that we are facing around the globe. This accelerating rate of change is one reason why Trend- and Technology-Scouting have been receiving increasing attention in automotive companies recently. Especially in the electronics and software domain it is paramount to identify upcoming trends and transform them into viable products or business models in order to stay ahead of competition. Today, about 90% of all innovations in the automotive industry are driven by electronics and software. Digital technologies not only help to enhance existing offerings, but also to develop entirely new products and service offerings. These radically new offerings are the ones that will be decisive in the race for market leadership. Extremely short innovation cycles in the digital world and adjacent industries challenge automotive manufacturers and push them towards new approaches in innovation. These approaches increasingly involve a more open model of innovation. A major share of topics with disruptive potential in the mobility domain require cooperation with other companies and industries. Corporate Venturing, business mashups and innovation alliances are common practices to tackle this kind of innovation. Automotive manufacturers will need to further develop capabilities in managing large-scale innovation projects involving diverse partners from different industries. In the future not only cooperative models will be important but also the acquisition of knowledge in totally new fields will challenge OEMs. Absorptive capacity will be one of the main success factors in the industry. The players with higher absorptive capacity will be able to learn faster in radically new fields. Those new fields may evolve through new technologies like gesture control or eye-tracking that could change the way we interact with vehicles but also with consumer electronic products. Piloted driving may generate benefits for drivers that customers may never have thought of and provide new possibilities for innovation. The topic of data and analytics is not only changing automotive companies, but also other industries. A question that is asked across several industries is “what can we do with all the data we are able to collect?”. Data will help to better understand customers and design products that fit their personal needs in any situation. Trends with regards to new business models like peer-to-peer car sharing are challenging the classical business model of automotive manufacturers. Furthermore, the integration of different means of mobility will lead to interesting offerings, while the challenge for automotive companies is the intelligent integration of their offering into those multimodal systems. Social changes like urbanization are not new, but increasingly affect peoples’ lives. Will there be cars in the city centers of the future? How will individual

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mobility look like in the future? Customer needs and usage patterns are changing, while owning a car is no longer the status symbol that all young people strive for. Customers demand a perfect integration of their digital lifestyles with every device they use – including cars. Also environmental issues will have effects on mobility and transportation in general. The increasing awareness of people for the effects of their consumption on the environment will provide opportunities for companies to develop innovative solutions. The effects of this development will go far beyond the automotive industry. Political and legal changes will also have stronger influence in the future. CO2 regulations will have an impact on the design of cars, as well as on the complete mobility chain and the appearance of cities. Urgently needed infrastructure investments will have to be financed, while governments lack the financial power to do so. The question arises where all those trends will lead us und what opportunities will arise in the future. This is the field where Audi Electronics Venture and the CDTM saw the potential for a fruitful collaboration and the Trend Report represented the optimal setting. First of all, the students analyzed trends that could affect "Human-Machine Interaction in Individual Mobility”. They concentrated on Technology, Society, Political and Legal Trends as well as on Emerging Business Models. After forming scenarios, the students came up with an extremely creative long list of ideas, with the subsequent goal to select the most promising ones and come up with five final ideas that were described in detail and checked for scenario robustness. Throughout the process the students were coached by Veronika Gamper and Michael Schadhauser, who did an amazing job in guiding and consulting the students and integrating knowledge from us, the Audi side. We, on behalf of Audi Electronics Venture want to thank the students for their creativity and their personal dedication for the project. The results definitely have the potential to lead to real life applications in our industry. We also want to thank Veronika Gamper and Michael Schadhauser for the great collaboration and their efforts for making this Trend Report a real success. Ingolstadt, Spring 2013 Andre Hainzlmaier, Innovation Strategy, Audi Electronics Venture, Audi AG

Preface

The entire trend report was written by CDTM students under the close guidance of research assistants in 2013. The papers compiled here do not claim to be scientiďŹ cally accurate in every case; they are rather meant to give a structured and broad overview of trends relevant in the context of Human-Machine-Interaction in Individual Mobility. For more information about the CDTM and its related projects, please visit http://www.cdtm.de

Table of Contents

Contents I

Trends

1 Technology Trends 1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Human initiated interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1.1 Speech control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1.2 In-vehicle multimedia systems . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Machine initiated interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2.1 Driver information system . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2.2 Advanced driver assistance systems . . . . . . 1.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Human initiated interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1.1 Increasing use of advanced authentication methods 1.3.1.2 Increasing convenience of vehicle system controls 1.3.1.3 Growing impact of virtual assistance . . . . . . 1.3.2 Machine initiated interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2.1 Higher usage of user state detection techniques 1.3.2.2 Enhanced human sense experience . . . . . . . 1.3.2.3 Improvements in advanced driving assistance systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2.4 Increasing need for sustainability of future technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3 Enablers and Enhancers of HMI . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3.1 Higher utilization of third party devices . . . . 1.3.3.2 Increasing standardization of vehicle-to-x communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Society Trends and Customer Needs in 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Essential Needs . . . . . . . 2.2.1.1 Reliability . . . .

Private Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 17 17 19 20 29 30 30 30 31

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2.3

2.4

2.2.1.2 Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.3 Aﬀordability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Comfort Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2.1 Ecofriendliness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2.2 Flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2.3 Infotainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2.4 Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Luxury Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3.1 Individualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3.2 Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3.3 Effortlessness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Societal Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.1 Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.2 Increasing Global Population in Cities . . . . . 2.3.2 Pre-Motion Customer Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.1 Growing Willingness to Share and Pool . . . . 2.3.2.2 Increasing Demand for Uniﬁed Multi-Modal Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 In-Motion Customer Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3.1 Rising Demand for Infotainment . . . . . . . . 2.3.3.2 Increasing Demand in Intuitiveness . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Trends in Society and Customer Needs in Business Mobility 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Societal Inﬂuences on Business Mobility . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1.1 Existing Infrastructure and Its Shortcomings . 3.2.1.2 Generation Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Ways of Organizing Business Mobility . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2.1 Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2.2 High Costs and Inefficiencies . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 Use of Travel Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.1 Integration of Mobile Devices into Business Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.2 Poorly Conceived Out-of-Office Productivity While Traveling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.3 Loss of Productivity due to Waiting Times . . 3.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 New Societal Inﬂuences on Business Mobility . . . . . . 3.3.1.1 Modernizing Mobility Infrastructures . . . . . 3.3.1.2 Rising Demand for Flexibility and Connectivity

32 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 41 44 45 45 47 48 57 58 58 58 59 60 61 61 61 62 62 63 64 64 64 65 66

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3.3.1.3 Increasing Environmental Awareness . . . . . . New Ways of Organizing Business Mobility . . . . . . . 3.3.2.1 Ways to Reduce the Need for Mobility . . . . . 3.3.2.2 Sophistication of Trip Planning . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2.3 Increasing Importance of Sharing and Pooling 3.3.2.4 Growing Independence of Workplace Location 3.3.3 Efficient Use of Travel Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3.1 Improving Feasibility of Mobile Business Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3.2 Improving Opportunities to Work While Traveling as a Passenger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3.3 Improving Opportunities to Work While Traveling as a Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2

3.4

4 Political and Legal Trends 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Transition of Political Institutionsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Role in Individual Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1.1 Political Institutions More than Infrastructure Providers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1.2 Economic importance of automotive industry . 4.2.1.3 International Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Regulations Regarding User-Operation of Vehicles . . . 4.2.2.1 Homologation of Vehicle User Interfaces . . . . 4.2.2.2 Usage of External Devices while Driving . . . 4.2.2.3 Advanced Driver Assistance Systems . . . . . . 4.2.3 Privacy Regulations Regarding Communication between Mobility Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3.1 Communication between Vehicle and Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3.2 Communication between Vehicle and Its Owner 4.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Political Institutions as Fast Adopters or Active Shapers of Future Individual Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1.1 Towards Socially-Inclusive Mobility . . . . . . 4.3.1.2 Towards Environmental-Friendly Mobility . . . 4.3.1.3 Stronger Focus on Efficient Mobility in Urban Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1.4 Faster Adaption of Regulations to Innovation . 4.3.2 Regulations Regarding User-Operation of Vehicles . . .

xiii 68 69 69 69 70 71 71 71 74 75 77 83 84 84 84 84 84 85 85 86 86 86 86 87 87 88 88 88 88 89 89 90

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4.3.2.1

4.4

Adaption of Regulations to Highly Automated Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2.2 Need to Rethink Regulations due to Autonomous Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3 Regulations Regarding Interactions between Mobility Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3.1 Need for Guidance by Political Institutions to Establish Vehicle-to-X Standards . . . . . . . . 4.3.3.2 Increasing Privacy and Security Concerns Regarding Vehicle-to-X Communication . . . . . 4.3.3.3 Increasing Privacy Concerns Regarding Usage of Crowd-Collected Data . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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5 Business Models in Human Machine Interaction in Individual Mobility 103 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.2.1 Sales-Centric Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 5.2.1.1 Upfront Payment for Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . 105 5.2.1.2 Upfront Payment for Connected Car Sevices . 105 5.2.1.3 Leasing of Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 5.2.2 Business Models in Mobility as a Service . . . . . . . . 106 5.2.2.1 Rental Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 5.2.2.2 Passenger Services in Individual Mobility . . . 108 5.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 5.3.1 Connected Car Business Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5.3.1.1 Increased Usage of Incremental Service Subscription Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 5.3.1.2 Emerging Business Models enabled by Vehicle Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 5.3.1.3 Upcoming Business Models through Application Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 5.3.1.4 Emerging Business Models enabled by Autonomous Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 5.3.1.5 Emerging Business Models around the Connected Car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 5.3.2 Business Models in Mobility as a Service . . . . . . . . . 116 5.3.2.1 Further Expansion of Car Sharing Business Models116 5.3.2.2 Increasing Opportunities for Platform Business Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 5.3.2.3 Emerging Business Models enabled by Autonomous Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

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5.4

Conclusion

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II Scenario Planning

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6 Introduction

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7 Driver Analysis

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7.1

7.2

Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 Sharing . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 Standardization . . . . . . . . Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Mobility as a Status Symbol 7.2.2 Privacy Awareness . . . . . . 7.2.3 Interconnectivity of Devices . 7.2.4 Big Data utilization . . . . . 7.2.5 Merge of Work & Private Life 7.2.6 Traffic Volume Increse . . . . 7.2.7 Intermodal Mobility . . . . . 7.2.8 Generational Changes . . . .

8 Scenarios 8.1 Scenario I: CommuniďŹ ed . . . . 8.1.1 Scenario Description . . 8.1.2 Timeline . . . . . . . . . 8.1.3 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.2 Scenario II: Car.me . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Scenario Description . . 8.2.2 Timeline . . . . . . . . . 8.2.3 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.3 Scenario III: Autonomy . . . . 8.3.1 Scenario Description . . 8.3.2 Timeline . . . . . . . . . 8.3.3 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.4 Scenario IV: Shared Patchwork 8.4.1 Scenario Description . . 8.4.2 Timeline . . . . . . . . . 8.4.3 Signposts . . . . . . . .

III Ideation 9 Driver-centric Adapted Interfaces

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135 135 138 141 141 142 144 145 147 148 149 150

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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

198 198 199 200 203 205 206 207 207 209 210 211 211 211 212 213 213 214

10 Turning a Car Into a Gym 10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 Business Idea: SportsCar+ . . . . . . . . 10.2.1 Customer Segments . . . . . . . . 10.2.1.1 Individual Customers . . 10.2.1.2 Corporate Customers . . 10.2.2 Value Proposition . . . . . . . . . 10.2.2.1 Sports and Body Shaping 10.2.2.2 Health . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.2.3 Well Being . . . . . . . . 10.2.2.4 Lifestyle . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.3 Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.3.1 Communication Channel 10.2.3.2 Distribution Channels . . 10.2.4 Customer Relationships . . . . . . 10.2.5 Key Resources . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.6 Key Activities . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.7 Key Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.8 Revenue Streams . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.9 Cost Structure . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 Scenario Robustness Check . . . . . . . . 10.3.1 Communiﬁed . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.2 Car.me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.3 Autonomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

217 218 218 219 220 220 221 221 222 222 223 223 223 225 225 226 227 228 229 230 230 231 231 231

9.3

9.4 9.5

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . Business Idea: custoMy . . . . 9.2.1 Customer Segments . . 9.2.2 Value Proposition . . . 9.2.3 Channels . . . . . . . . 9.2.4 Customer Relationships 9.2.5 Key Resources . . . . . 9.2.6 Key Activities . . . . . 9.2.7 Key Partnerships . . . . 9.2.8 Revenue Streams . . . . 9.2.9 Cost Structure . . . . . Scenario Robustness Check . . 9.3.1 Communiﬁed . . . . . . 9.3.2 Car.me . . . . . . . . . 9.3.3 Autonomy . . . . . . . . 9.3.4 Patchwork Sharing . . . Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Table of Contents

10.3.4 Shared Patchwork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

231 232 232

11 DoctorToGo 11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 Business Idea: DoctorToGo . . 11.2.1 Customer Segments . . 11.2.2 Value Proposition . . . 11.2.3 Channels . . . . . . . . 11.2.4 Customer Relationships 11.2.5 Key Resources . . . . . 11.2.6 Key Activities . . . . . 11.2.7 Key Partnerships . . . . 11.2.8 Revenue Streams . . . . 11.2.9 Cost Structure . . . . . 11.3 Scenario Robustness Check . . 11.3.1 Communiﬁed . . . . . . 11.3.2 Car.me . . . . . . . . . 11.3.3 Autonomy . . . . . . . . 11.3.4 Shared Patchwork . . . 11.4 Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

237 238 238 240 241 243 243 244 244 245 246 247 248 248 249 250 251 252 253

12 The Genie 12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . 12.2 Business Idea: The Genie . . . 12.2.1 Customer Segments . . 12.2.2 Value Proposition . . . 12.2.3 Channels . . . . . . . . 12.2.4 Customer Relationships 12.2.5 Key Resources . . . . . 12.2.6 Key Activities . . . . . 12.2.7 Key Partnerships . . . . 12.2.8 Revenue Streams . . . . 12.2.9 Cost Structure . . . . . 12.3 Scenario Robustness Check . . 12.3.1 Communiﬁed . . . . . . 12.3.2 Car.me . . . . . . . . . 12.3.3 Autonomy . . . . . . . . 12.3.4 Shared Patchwork . . . 12.4 Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

255 256 256 257 259 260 261 262 264 265 266 267 267 268 268 269 269 270 270

xviii 13 AirP2P 13.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . 13.2 Business Idea: AirP2P . . . 13.2.1 Customer Segments 13.2.2 Value Proposition . 13.2.3 Channels . . . . . . 13.2.4 Key Resources . . . 13.2.5 Key Activities . . . 13.2.6 Key Partnerships . . 13.2.7 Revenue Streams . . 13.2.8 Cost Structure . . . 13.3 Scenario Robustness Check 13.3.1 Shared Patchwork . 13.3.2 CommuniďŹ ed . . . . 13.3.3 Car.me . . . . . . . 13.3.4 Autonomy . . . . . . 13.4 Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . .

Table of Contents

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

273 274 275 276 277 277 278 279 280 280 281 282 282 283 283 284 285 285

List of Figures 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Access system architecture overview . . . . Plug-in Hybrid - Powertrain layout . . . . Sales forecast for Electric Vehicles . . . . . Challenges in Electric Vehicle Development Worldwide Smartphone Sales 2007-2012 . . Overview of vehicle-to-x communication . .

. . . . . .

2.1 2.2 2.3

31 36

2.4 2.5

Maslow’s “Hierarchy of Needs” [98], adapted to private mobility Sinus Milieus in Germany 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Percentage distribution of ages of German population from 1950 to 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Urban population growth from 2010 to 2020 according to regions “Help win the War” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5

UK executives judging work productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . IT policy of companies regarding personally owned mobile devices Potential applications of mobile devices for business-related tasks Beneﬁts of Mobile Business Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . Domestic Business Trips in the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59 63 73 74 76

5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7

Sixt - Vehicle Rental Revenue by Customer Group 2011 . . . Reasons of last Taxi Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Use Cases of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . App Store Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Predicted Global Car Sharing Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relay Rides Platform Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . Recent innovations in diﬀerent elements of a business model.

. . . . . . .

107 108 112 114 117 120 122

7.1

Relevant drivers ranked by impact and uncertainty . . . . . . .

136

8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

The key drivers’ outcomes result in four diﬀerent scenarios . Timeline Communiﬁed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Timeline for the Scenario “Car.me” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Timeline for the Scenario “Autonomy” . . . . . . . . . . . . Timeline for the Scenario “Patchwork Sharing” . . . . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . .

9 15 16 16 18 19

39 40 43

. 154 . 160 . 168 . 177 . 186

List of Figures

9.1 9.2 9.3

Value Proposition Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Customer Relationship Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Revenue Streams Scheme: Pay little by usage of shared cars(left), pay a high lump sum on the acquisition of a car . . . . . . . . 210

10.1 Segments of Individual Customers . . . . . . . . 10.2 Segments of Corporate Customers . . . . . . . . 10.3 Gross advertising expenditure on diﬀerent media facturers in Germany in 2012 (EUR million) . . .

. . . . . . . . 220 . . . . . . . . 221 of car manu. . . . . . . . 224

11.1 System overview of DoctorToGo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 The safety risk of micro sleep . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 Revenue streams of DoctorToGo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

239 242 246

12.1 Genie experience in ﬁve steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 12.2 Customer Segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 12.3 Key Resources and Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 13.1 Members (left axis) and vehicles (right axis) of car sharing companies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 13.2 Simpliﬁed illustration of AirP2P’s business model . . . . . . . . 275 13.3 Schematic illustration of AirP2P’s revenue models . . . . . . . 281 13.4 Driver implications for AirP2P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284

List of Tables 1.1

Vehicle-to-x communication and its impact on HMI . . . . . . .

xxii

Abbreviations

Abbreviations ACC

Adaptive Cruise Control

ADAS

Advanced Driving Assistance Systems

Augmented Reality

B2B

Business-to-Business

B2C

Business-to-Consumer

BASt

Bundesanstalt fĂźr StraĂ&#x;enwesen (Federal Highway Research Institute)

BYOD

Bring your own device

C2C

Consumer-to-Consumer

CAGR

Compound annual growth rate

CEO

Chief Executive Officer

DIS

Driver Information System

European Commission

Electric Vehicle

GMAC

General Motors Acceptance Cooperation

GPS

Global Positioning System

HMI

Human-Machine-Interaction

HVAC

Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning

ICT

Information and Communications Technology

IPv6

Internet Protocol Version 6

MaaS

Mobility as a Service

MMI

Multi Media Interface

NFC

Near Field Communication

OEM

Original Equipment Manufacturer

Operating System

P2P

Peer-to-Peer

Abbreviations

POI

Points of interest

R&D

Research and Development

UNECE

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

Virtual Assisstant

xxiii