Urban Mobility Concepts. Trend Report 2011 by Center for Digital Technology and Management

Urban Mobility Concepts Trend Report 2011

Other CDTM print publications M. Huber, A. Buttermann, L. Diaz Trigo, M. Möller, P. Dornbusch, M. Zündt (Eds.) IT Security in Global Corporate Networks ISBN 978-3-8311-4297-2. 2002. X, 281 p. M. Huber, P. Dornbusch, J. Landgrebe, M. Möller, M. Zündt (Eds.) Visions of Advanced Mobile Communications ISBN 978-3-9808842-0-4. 2003 VII, 272 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Huber, M. Möller, J. Landgrebe, M. Zündt (Eds.) Leveraging Business with Web Services ISBN 978-3-9808842-1-1. 2003. VI, 238 p. M. Huber, P. Dornbusch, M. Möller, J. Landgrebe, M. Zündt, M. Müller (Eds.) Mobile Application for the Soccer World Cup 2006 ISBN 978-3-937312-53-8. 2003. VII, 280 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Huber, J. Landgrebe, M. Möller, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) The Future of Telematics: New Business Concepts and Technologies ISBN 978-3-9808842-2-8. 2004. XII, 370 p. P. Dornbusch, M. Möller, J. Landgrebe, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) Generation 50 Plus - Products and Services in the TIME Sector ISBN 978-3-9808842-3-5. 2005. VII, 338 p. P. Dornbusch, U. Sandner, P. Sties, M. Zündt (Eds.) Fixed Mobile Convergence ISBN 978-3-9808842-4-2. 2005. V, 259 p. U. Sandner, B. Kirchmair, P. Mayrhofer, M. Zündt (Eds.) RFID: Leveraging Global Commerce With Tracking & Tracing Technologies ISBN 978-3-9808842-5-9. 2006. VI, 357 p. E.-M. Kern, H.-G. Hegering, B. Brügge (Eds.) Managing Development and Application of Digital Technologies ISBN 978-3-5403412-8-4. 2006. X, 341 p.

B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner, M. Zündt (Eds.) Seamless Context-Aware Services in Converged Mobile- and Enterprise-Networks ISBN 978-3-9808842-6-6. 2007. 344 p. A. Balevic, B. Bozionek, B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner (Eds.) Effective Collaboration in Dynamic Communities with Service-oriented Architectures ISBN 978-3-9808842-7-3. 2007. VI, 150 p. B. Kirchmair, N. Konrad, P. Mayrhofer, P. Nepper, U. Sandner (Eds.) The Future of Publishing Trends for the Bookmarket 2020 ISBN 978-3-9812203-0-8. 2008. 260 p. P. Nepper, N. Konrad (Eds.) The Future of Social Commerce ISBN 978-3-9812203-1-5. 2009. XX, 320 p. P. Nepper, M.-L. Lorenz, N. Konrad (Eds) Technologies and Services in the Light of Demographic Changes ISBN 978-3-9812203-3-9. 2009. XXIV, 312 p. M.-L. Lorenz, P. Nepper, N. Konrad (Eds) The Service Centric Car in 2020 ISBN 978-3-9812203-4-6. 2009. XXII, 304 p. M.-L. Lorenz, C. Menkens, N. Konrad (Eds.) E-Energy ISBN 978-3-9812203-5-3. 2009. XXVIII, 382 p. M.-L. Lorenz, C. Menkens, J. Sußmann, N. Konrad (Eds.) Developer Platforms and Communities in the Telecom Industry ISBN 978-3-9812203-6-0. 2010. XXVI, 356 p. B. Römer, J. Sußmann, C. Menkens, M.-L. Lorenz, P. Mayrhofer (Eds.) Smart Grid Infrastructures ISBN 978-3-9812203-7-7. 2011. XXVI, 333 p.

Julian Sußmann · Benedikt Römer (Editors)

Urban Mobility Concepts Trend Report 2011

Class 2011 Spring Center for Digital Technology and Management

Urban Mobility Concepts. Trend Report 2011 Edited by: Julian Sußmann, Benedikt Römer ISBN: 978-3-9812203-8-4 Biblografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. © 2011 Center for Digital Technology and Management, Munich, Germany Printed in Germany This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitations, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from the Center for Digital Technology and Management. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and thereof free for general use. The Center for Digital Technology and Management (CDTM) is a joint institution of the Technische Universität München (TUM) and the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU). This report was created by CDTM students and is one element of a comprehensive research project. The CDTM is part of the Elitenetzwerk Bayern. Board of Directors: Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof.

Dr. Dr. h.c. Manfred Broy (TUM) Bernd Brügge, Ph.D. (TUM) Dr. Andreas Butz (LMU) Dr.-Ing. Klaus Diepold (TUM) Dr.-Ing. Jörg Eberspächer (TUM)

Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof. Prof.

Dietmar Harhoff, M.P.A. Ph.D. (LMU) Dr. Heinz-Gerd Hegering (LMU) Dr. Thomas Hess (LMU) Dr. Dieter Kranzlmüller (LMU) Dr. Tobias Kretschmer (LMU) Dr. Helmut Krcmar (TUM)

Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Arnold Picot (LMU) Prof. Dr, Isabell Welpe (TUM) Center for Digital Technology and Management Barerstr. 21, 80333 Munich, Germany E-Mail: info@cdtm.de Web: http://www.cdtm.de

Preface

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Preface Four mega trends are shaping the world today: demographic change, climate change, globalization and urbanization. Consequences of these megatrends can most clearly be seen in cities: a steadily growing demand for energy, rising water consumption and a need for high-quality and affordable healthcare are just some of the challenges that authorities in cities all over the world face today and will have to face even more in the future. Urbanization is a growing phenomenon and, in 2009, for the first time more people lived in cities than in the countryside. Over the next 20 years, the percentage of the world’s population that lives in cities will rise from 50% to 60%, meaning that about 1.4 billion more people will be living in cities. The economic growth of cities is expected to reach 4.4% by 2025, higher than overall global economic growth and the rate of growth outside of cities. Already today, about half of the global economic growth is generated in the world’s 600 biggest cities. Cities are responsible for 75% of the world’s energy use and produce more than 80% of all greenhouse gas emissions. With most of the cities growing at staggering rates, there is increasing pressure to somehow manage often chaotic urban areas. Facing the diverse challenges, majors and officials have to keep two things in mind: To keep their city a place worth living for their current inhabitants and at the same time succeed in a more and more international competition for economical growth and labor force. Many municipalities have set themselves rigorous targets to reduce the carbon footprint of the entire city. With CO2 emission not just being a measure for environmental-friendly development, these targets will also guide the way to a sustainable urban development. There is a huge number of levers to be shifted, e.g. efficient and effective mobility, sustainable, decentralized energy supply, efficient water supply and waste management When asked, city administrators overwhelmingly cite transport as the most urgent infrastructure investment to enhance their city’s sustainability. This is for two reasons: Cities cannot function without a fast, efficient and affordable system of mass transit and logistics.Also, the use of private vehicles is one of the main contributors to CO2 emissions, which cities are eager to curb. With an efficient, environmental-friendly and intermodally connected transport system, cities contribute on a local, national and international scale. Sustainable logistics in megacities will support local and national economical growth. Finally, local reduction of emission and pollution (fine dust, noise) as well as less demand of infrastructure and space will set the path towards a city worth living in. All these challenges will not be solved by independently investing in the different modes of transport and logistics but require a holistic approach for mobility solutions in urban areas. The megatrends form the core of Siemens’ strategic orientation. The goal: provide answers to the world’s most pressing questions. And Siemens addresses one the biggest questions of

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modern day society: how to assure affordable and reliable mobility for people and goods? To be more precise: how does the future of individual transport look like? How will future transport build up on existing urban infrastructure? What role will electromobility play? What role will central management systems play that gather and smartly connect transport, traffic and personal information thus revolutionizing the way we travel? The Siemens unit “Innovative Mobility Solutions” (IMS) is the entrepreneurial implementation of Siemens strategic vision aiming at identifying technological trends and turning them into real life business solutions. Finding new ideas is just one stepping stone. Analyzing and testing them for “future readiness” is another. And here Siemens and CDTM found each other in a perfect match. Within this trend seminar student teams analyzed new trends in the topic “urban mobility concepts” with Siemens as their industrial partner and sponsor. The first part of this report consists of a basic analysis of trends regarding technology, market, society and customer needs, the political and legal framework as well as emerging business models. The second part of the report provides an outlook on the future and analyzes the identified drivers for future developments. As a result, possible business solutions in various future scenarios are deduced and analyzed for business feasibility. Throughout the process the student groups were guided and coached by the CDTM program coordinators Julian Sußmann and Benedikt Römer. On Siemens side the project was coordinated by Martin Birkner and Dr. Martin Prescher (both from Siemens Innovative Mobility Solutions). We, on behalf of Siemens Innovative Mobility Solution, want to thank the students for their tremendous work throughout the program and ultimately resulting in this trend report. We have been deeply impressed by the creativity, professionalism and determination of each student group. The results clearly have the potential to serve as a basis for real life applications in the field of urban mobility. Of course we also want to thank Julian Sußmann and Benedikt Römer for a perfect and very enjoyable collaboration that needs to be repeated.

Munich, Spring 2011

Roland Edel, CTO Complete Transportation and Head of Innovative Mobility Solutions, Siemens AG

Martin Birkner, Business Development IMS

Dr. Martin Prescher, Technology Development IMS

Preface

The entire report was written by CDTM students under the close guidance of research assistants in 2011. The papers compiled here do not claim to be scientifically accurate in every case; they are rather meant to give a structured and broad overview of trends relevant in the urban mobility context.

Table of Contents

Contents I

Trends

1 Technology Trends 1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Material Science and Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1.1 Engine Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1.2 Road and Railbound Technologies . . . . . . . 1.2.1.3 Vehicle Construction and Design . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2.1 Generation Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2.2 Distribution and Storage Technologies . . . . . 1.2.3 Information and Communication Technology . . . . . . 1.2.3.1 Positioning Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.3.2 Traffic Management Systems . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.3.3 Access Technologies and Devices for Mobile Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Material Science and Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1.1 Increasing Use of Smart Materials . . . . . . . 1.3.1.2 New Applications possible due to Multi Functional Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1.3 Increasing Use of Carbon Materials . . . . . . 1.3.1.4 Further Optimization of the Powertrain Engineering in Urban Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2.1 Growth of Decentralized Electricity Generation 1.3.2.2 Increasing Use of Storage Solutions with High Capacity and Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2.3 Increasing Availability of Distribution Channels 1.3.3 Information and Communication Technology . . . . . . 1.3.3.1 Growing Use of Car2Car Communication . . . 1.3.3.2 Advanced Mobile Payment Systems . . . . . .

1 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 16 16 18 20 21 21 23

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1.3.3.3

1.4

Increasing Abilities of Traffic Management tems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3.4 Growing Use of Augmented Reality . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sys. . . . . . . . .

25 27 29

2 Market Trends 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Market Segments and their Players . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.1 Mobility Infrastructure Market . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.2 ICT Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.3 Energy Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.4 Vehicle Industry Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1.5 Transportation Service Market . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Power Relations between Market Segments . . . . . . . 2.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Mobility Infrastructure Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.1 Increasing Public-Private Partnerships . . . . . 2.3.1.2 Growing market for high-speed rail systems . . 2.3.2 ICT Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.1 Growing Power of ICT Companies . . . . . . . 2.3.2.2 Increasing Investments in Non-ICT Traditional Markets and Smart Solutions . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.3 Increasing Cross-industry Convergence of ICT Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 Energy Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3.1 Increasing Demand for Energy and Growing Ratio of Renewable Energies . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3.2 Increasing Portfolio Expansion of Energy Suppliers 2.3.4 Vehicle Industry Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.4.1 Increasing Investments in the EV Market . . . 2.3.4.2 New Cooperation Opportunities . . . . . . . . 2.3.4.3 Appearance of New Market Players . . . . . . 2.3.5 Transportation Service Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.5.1 Rising Competition for Transportation Service Providers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.5.2 Increasing Dynamics in the Car Sharing Market 2.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37 39 39 39 40 41 41 43 46 46 47 48 48 48 49 49

3 Social Trends and Customer Needs 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Customer Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

67 69 69 69

50 51 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 55 55 56 57

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3.3

3.4

3.2.1.1 Essential Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1.2 Important Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1.3 Comfort Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1.4 Luxury Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Customer Segments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2.1 Social Milieus after Income . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2.2 Social Milieus after Social Status and Basic Values 3.2.2.3 Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Attitude and Culture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1.1 Increase of Social Cocooning . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1.2 Rising Health Consciousness . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1.3 Higher Ecological Awareness . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Customer Segments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2.1 Exploding Middle Class in Emerging Countries 3.3.2.2 Increasing Influence of Elderly People . . . . . 3.3.3 City Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3.1 Urbanization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3.2 Geographical Clustering in Cities . . . . . . . 3.3.3.3 Suburbanization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 Political & Legal Trends 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Environmental Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Data Protection and Privacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.5 Research and Subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.6 Competition Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.7 Traffic Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Societal Demands on Urban Public Transportation . . . 4.3.1.1 Augmenting Facilitation of Access to Public Transportation for Elderly People . . . . . . . 4.3.1.2 Increasing Capacity of Urban Public Transport 4.3.1.3 Stronger Policy Focus on Mobility Problems of the Poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1.4 Upgrading Public Transportation to Suffice Increasing Quality Expectations . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Governmental Technology Promotion . . . . . . . . . . .

xiii 70 71 71 72 72 73 74 75 76 76 76 77 78 79 79 80 82 82 84 84 85 93 95 95 96 97 97 98 99 100 101 102 102 102 103 104 105 106

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4.3.2.1

4.4

Increasing Implementation of Intelligent Traffic Control Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.3.2.2 Accelerated International Competition for Technological Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 4.3.3 Nonmotorized Transport and Urban Freight . . . . . . . 108 4.3.3.1 Increasing Facilitation of Bicycle Usage . . . . 109 4.3.3.2 Increasing Efficiency of Urban Freight Transport 109 4.3.4 Environmental Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 4.3.4.1 Unifying International Environmental Policies 111 4.3.4.2 Tightening Environmental Policies . . . . . . . 111 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

5 Business Trends (Emerging Business Models) 131 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 5.2 Status Quo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 5.2.1 Business Models in Key Transport Services . . . . . . . 133 5.2.1.1 Ticket Based Fee Systems in Public Transit . . 133 5.2.1.2 Selling of Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.2.1.3 Loaning of Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 5.2.2 Business Models in Supporting Services . . . . . . . . . 135 5.2.2.1 Provision of Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . 135 5.2.2.2 Provision of Information . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 5.3 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 5.3.1 Mobility Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 5.3.1.1 Growing Opportunities for Personal Rapid Transit138 5.3.1.2 Expanding Implementation of Real-Time Routing Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 5.3.2 Communication Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 5.3.2.1 New Upcoming Safety Solutions Arising from Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication . . . . . . . 140 5.3.2.2 New Infotainment Applications Facilitated by In-Car Internet Access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 5.3.3 Environment and Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 5.3.3.1 Increasing Opportunities for Carpooling and Vehicle Sharing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 5.3.3.2 Growing Demand for Innovative Business Models in the E-Car Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 5.3.3.3 Spreading Publicly Available Charging Stations 146 5.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

II Scenarios and Business Ideas

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6 Bundling and Integrated Services 6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Driver Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1.1 Privacy Awareness . . . . . . 6.2.1.2 Public Acceptance . . . . . . 6.2.1.3 Degree of System Integration 6.2.2 Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2.1 Creation of Business Models 6.2.2.2 Resource Shortage . . . . . . 6.2.2.3 Adoption of Smart Devices . 6.2.2.4 Market Structure . . . . . . 6.2.2.5 Standardization Legislation . 6.2.2.6 Demand for Mobility . . . . 6.2.2.7 Amount of Expert Engineers 6.3 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 Scenario 1: Race . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1.1 Scenario Description . . . . 6.3.1.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2 Scenario 2: Slalom . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2.1 Scenario Description . . . . . 6.3.2.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3 Scenario 3: Free Flow . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3.1 Scenario Description . . . . . 6.3.3.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3.3 Value Maps . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 Business Idea: Mobility Data Cloud . . . . . 6.4.1 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.1.1 Customer Segments . . . . . 6.4.1.2 Value Propositions . . . . . . 6.4.1.3 Distribution Channels . . . . 6.4.1.4 Customer Relationships . . . 6.4.1.5 Revenue Streams . . . . . . 6.4.1.6 Key Resources . . . . . . . . 6.4.1.7 Key Activities . . . . . . . . 6.4.1.8 Key Partners . . . . . . . . . 6.4.1.9 Cost Structure . . . . . . . . 6.4.2 Scenario Robustness . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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157 159 160 161 161 162 164 166 167 167 167 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 173 173 174 176 176 177 184 185 187 188 189 190 192 193 194 196 197 197 199 200 203

7 Infrastructure Provision 207 7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 7.2 Driver Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

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7.2.1

7.3

7.4

7.5

Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1.1 Environmental Awareness . . . . 7.2.1.2 Political Input . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1.3 Technological Progress . . . . . 7.2.2 Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.1 Market Structure . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.2 Availability of Resources . . . . 7.2.2.3 Industry Standards . . . . . . . 7.2.2.4 Customer Acceptance . . . . . . 7.2.2.5 Urbanization and Urban Sprawl 7.2.2.6 Demographic Changes . . . . . . 7.2.2.7 Social Needs . . . . . . . . . . . Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Scenario 1: Bridging the Gap . . . . . . . 7.3.1.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 7.3.1.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Scenario 2: Mobility Takes a Back Seat . 7.3.2.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 7.3.2.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.3 Scenario 3: Conservative Goes Innovative 7.3.3.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 7.3.3.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.3.3 Value Map . . . . . . . . . . . . Business Idea: Avanti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1.1 Customer Segments . . . . . . . 7.4.1.2 Value Propositions . . . . . . . 7.4.1.3 Distribution Channels . . . . . . 7.4.1.4 Customer Relationships . . . . . 7.4.1.5 Revenue Streams . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1.6 Key Resources . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1.7 Key Activities . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1.8 Key Partners . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1.9 Cost Structure . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.2 Scenario Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8 Mass Mobility 8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Driver Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1.1 Energy Prices . . 8.2.1.2 Ecological Policies

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210 211 212 214 215 215 216 216 217 217 218 218 219 219 219 221 222 222 224 225 226 230 232 235 236 237 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 247

. . . . .

249 251 251 252 252 254

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Table of Contents

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

255 256 259 260 260 261 262 262 264 264 265 267 269 271 272 273 274 276 276 277 278 278 279 280 280 282

9 Personal Mobility 9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Driver Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1 Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1.1 Mass Adoption . . . . . . 9.2.1.2 Disruptive Technology . . 9.2.1.3 Political Framework . . . 9.2.2 Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2.1 Mass Mobility . . . . . . 9.2.2.2 Social Needs . . . . . . . 9.2.2.3 Technology Improvement 9.2.2.4 Environmental Issues . . 9.2.2.5 Budget Restrictions . . . 9.2.2.6 Demographic Change . . 9.2.2.7 City Characteristics . . . 9.3 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

287 289 289 290 290 292 293 294 295 295 296 296 297 298 298 298

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.2.1.3 City Density . . . . . . 8.2.2 Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Chaos City . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1.1 Scenario Description . . 8.3.1.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Market Decides . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2.1 Scenario Description . . 8.3.2.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.3.3 Green World . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.3.1 Scenario Description . . 8.3.3.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 8.3.3.3 Value Map . . . . . . . Business Idea: The Travelator . . . . . 8.4.1 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.1.1 Customer Segments . . 8.4.1.2 Value Proposition . . . 8.4.1.3 Distribution Channels . 8.4.1.4 Customer Relationships 8.4.1.5 Revenue Streams . . . . 8.4.1.6 Key Resources . . . . . 8.4.1.7 Key Activities . . . . . 8.4.1.8 Key Partners . . . . . . 8.4.1.9 Costs . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2 Scenario Robustness . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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9.3.1

9.4

9.5

Scenario 1: Car Free Zone . . . . 9.3.1.1 Scenario Description . 9.3.1.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 9.3.2 Scenario 2: Road Runner . . . . 9.3.2.1 Scenario Description . 9.3.2.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 9.3.3 Scenario 3: Sharing . . . . . . . 9.3.3.1 Scenario Description . . 9.3.3.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . 9.3.3.3 Value Map . . . . . . . Business Idea: carsonalize . . . . . . . . 9.4.1 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.1.1 Customer Segments . . 9.4.1.2 Value Propositions . . . 9.4.1.3 Distribution Channels . 9.4.1.4 Customer Relationships 9.4.1.5 Revenue Streams . . . . 9.4.1.6 Key Resources . . . . . 9.4.1.7 Key Activities . . . . . 9.4.1.8 Key Partners . . . . . . 9.4.1.9 Cost Structure . . . . 9.4.2 Scenario Robustness . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

298 299 301 302 302 304 305 305 311 312 315 315 318 318 320 320 321 322 323 323 323 324 326

10 Smart Devices 329 10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 10.2 Driver Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 10.2.1 Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 10.2.1.1 Technology Acceptance in Everyday Life . . . 332 10.2.1.2 Technological Development . . . . . . . . . . . 334 10.2.1.3 Control over Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 10.2.2 Additional Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 10.2.2.1 Digital Data Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 10.2.2.2 Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 10.2.2.3 Standardization and Convergence of Smart Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 10.2.2.4 Ubiquitous Computing and Permanent Connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 10.2.2.5 Cyber-Criminality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 10.2.2.6 Productivity Pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 10.2.2.7 Urban Stress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 10.3 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 10.3.1 Scenario 1: Lost Trust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342

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10.3.1.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 10.3.1.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.2 Scenario 2: Gadget Wonderland . . . . . 10.3.2.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 10.3.2.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.3 Scenario 3: Big Brother Is Watching You 10.3.3.1 Scenario Description . . . . . . . 10.3.3.2 Signposts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.3.3 Value Map . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Product Idea: Smart Traffic Routing Device . . . 10.4.1 Business Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.1 Customer Segments . . . . . . . 10.4.1.2 Value Propositions . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.3 Distribution Channels . . . . . 10.4.1.4 Customer Relationships . . . . 10.4.1.5 Revenue Streams . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.6 Key Resources . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.7 Key Activities . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.8 Key Partners . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1.9 Cost Structure . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.2 Scenario Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

343 345 346 346 348 349 350 355 357 360 364 364 365 365 366 367 368 369 370 370 371 373

List of Figures

List of Figures 1.1 1.2

Consumption of fuel combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Key ICE optimization technologies and their CO2 reduction potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Different options for electrifying power trains . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 The flow diagram of a Combined Heat and Power Plant . . . . 1.5 The performance comparison of different battery technologies . 1.6 The expected storage capacities for hydrogen in near future . . 1.7 A RSU acts as information source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 Taxonomy of vulnerabilities affecting an m-payment system . . 1.9 Architecture of the mobile device based real-time tracking system 1.10 Simplified representation of a “virtuality continuum” . . . . . . 1.11 Building blocks for augmented reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

6 14 15 17 18 19 22 24 26 27 28

2.5 2.6 2.7

Market segments of urban mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Value chain steps and markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Increasing concentration of the German electricity market . . . Market share of leading LRV suppliers in North America, South America, Western Europe and Asia from 2005 until 2010 . . . . Car production numbers of leading automobile manufacturers . Cars production numbers by leading manufacturer countries . . Joint ventures of car manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.1 3.2 3.3

Hierarchical structure of customer needs in urban transportation 70 Car ownership patterns shift as income rise . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Global distribution of income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

4.1 4.2 4.3

Passenger vehicle fleet average CO2 emissions . . . . . . . . . . Financial incentives for electric cars in selected countries . . . Subsidies for the producers of electric cars: Public support for R&D and infrastucture over the next five years (in million €) Source: Adapted from [381] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

96 100

Real-time routing business model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . V2V Communication detecting a possible collision . . . . . . . Growth of carsharing worldwide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

139 141 144

5.1 5.2 5.3

40 42 43 44 45 45 47

108

xxii 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10

List of Figures

Map of drivers for bundling and integrated services . . Key drivers for the “Race” scenario . . . . . . . . . . . Key drivers for the “Slalom” scenario . . . . . . . . . . Key drivers for the “Free Flow” scenario . . . . . . . . Timeline for past events and possible future headlines Attribute value map - customer perspective . . . . . . Attribute value map - industry perspective . . . . . . Business model “Mobility Data Cloud” . . . . . . . . . Data flows to and from the MDC . . . . . . . . . . . . Revenue streams to and from the Mobility Data Cloud

. . . . . . . . . .

160 170 174 177 183 186 187 188 191 195

Map of drivers for urban mobility in infrastructure provision . Key drivers of the ccenario “Bridging the Gap” . . . . . . . . . Key drivers of the scenario “Mobility Takes a Backseat” . . . . Key drivers of the scenario “Conservative goes Innovative” . . . Timeline of events relevant for infrastructure provision . . . . . Values derived from building infrastructure, perspective of a municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 The Avanti Logo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 Overview of the way Avanti works for a registered user . . . . . 7.9 Revenue streams for the Avanti system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.10 Overview of the key partners involved in the Avanti system . .

210 220 223 225 231 233 235 236 241 243

8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10

Impact-Uncertainty Matrix of drivers for mass mobility Different possible developments of oil price . . . . . . . 3-Key-Driver-Figure Chaos City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-Key-Driver-Figure Market Decides . . . . . . . . . . . 3-Key-Driver-Figure Green World . . . . . . . . . . . . . Timeline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Value-Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Travelator product draft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Travelator product value chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Revenue streams for the Travelator provider . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

252 253 260 262 265 268 270 272 273 277

9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10

Impact-Uncertainty Matrix of personal mobility Key drivers of the Car Free Zone scenario . . . Key drivers of the Road Runner scenario . . . . Key drivers of the Sharing scenario . . . . . . . Timeline and possible future headlines . . . . . Attribute value map - Sharing . . . . . . . . . . Integration of carsonalize . . . . . . . . . . . . Personalization by carsonalize . . . . . . . . . . Rewarding system of carsonalize . . . . . . . . User Interface of the platform . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

290 299 302 305 311 314 315 316 316 317

7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6

. . . . . . . . . .

xxiii

List of Figures

10.1 Impact-Uncertainty Matrix of Smart Devices . . . . 10.2 Forecasts of the global mobile data traffic by 2015 . 10.3 Age structure of the German population in 2010 and 10.4 Driver constellation for Lost Trust . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 Driver constellation for Gadget Wonderland . . . . . 10.6 Driver constellation in Big Brother is Watching You 10.7 PESTLE figure for Big Brother is Watching You . . 10.8 Value map for Big Brother Is Watching You . . . . . 10.9 Illustration of an implemented STRD system . . . . 10.10 Product illustration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.11 Overview of stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.12 Key activities of the STRD solution business . . . .

. . . . . . 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

332 338 339 343 346 350 357 359 361 363 367 369

xxiv

List of Tables

List of Tables 3.1 3.2

World Bank data of population ages 65 and above . . . . . . . Overview of urban population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

75 83

6.1 6.2 6.3

Comparison of the influence of high and low public acceptance Comparison of the influence of high and low public acceptance Comparison of the possible degrees of system integration . . . .

163 164 166

8.1

Time savings for end consumers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

275