Hazard Assessment by Cecilia Castillo

Hazard Assessment 1 Hazards are usually referred to by many people as disaster. Hazards can only be called a disaster when it hits a community which is unable to cope with its effects. This paper will look at the definition of a hazard and its categories. It will also discuss the elements to characterize hazards and move towards discussing hazard assessment. According to the Glossary of Terms of UN-ISDR, a hazard is “A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.” Hazards can be divided as follows: Communities face a wide array of hazards because of unsustainable development practices. Another view of categorizing hazardous events are the following: Those based in nature: earthquakes, droughts, floods, avalanches, etc. Those based in violence: war, armed conflict, physical assault, etc. Those based in deterioration: declining health, education and other social services; environmental degradation, etc. Those based in the failing of industrialized society: technological failures, oil spillage, factory explosions, fires, gas leakages, transport collisions. Source: Bellers, 1999 To further understand the behavior and nature of a hazard, it is necessary to do a hazard profiling. The following questions will lead us to the profiling: What is it? When will it hit me and how will I know that it will hit me? Character Nature and behavior

What is it? I will be hit by what? Force

When will it hit me and how will I know that it will hit me? warning signs and signals, forewarning, speed of onset, frequency, period of occurrence and duration

What is the Hazard force? The one that will hit me! 1

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What is the hazard force? The one that will hit me!

Hazards

Force – the power that is produced when something moves

Natural Hazards Typhoon, hurricane, cyclone Volcanic eruption Earthquake Flood Fires (settlement/forest) Drought

Water-flash floods, storm surge, tidal waves Wind – flying objects, uprooting material objects Land – land slides, mud flow Ash falls, rocks, lava Falling hard objects, tsunami, liquefaction Water – epidemics, Heat – burns, Heat, shortage of potable water, shortage of water (irrigation) for plants and animals, pest and diseases, famine

Human Related Actions Violence War and Conflict

Arms, pistol, machetes,

Deterioration of Basic Services- Obstacles to the Realization of Human Rights Declining health, education and other social services; environmental degradation, etc. (Government inaction)

Famine HIV-Aids

Malnutrition- inadequate food intake, inadequate access to food, illness, diseases and death Bird flu – epidemics Harsh environmental to changes - heat waves Famine Inadequate food intake, inadequate access to food, illness, diseases and death Virus – infectious, epidemics

Failing of Industrialize Societies Transport Collisions Industrial Explosions

Physical / hard object Pollution, radio-activity, biological weapon

Oil Spillage Technological Failures

Pollution, chemical contamination of air, land and water Mechanical accidents, fires, gas leakage, contamination in the air, land and water.

There are hazards that affect wider communities and some that affects individuals. There are hazards that produce secondary hazards.

Every hazard has its own distinct behavior. This behavior can be characterized by warning signs and signals, forewarning, speed of onset, frequency, period of occurrence and duration. Warning Signs and Signals Forewarning Speed of onset

Frequency Period of occurrence Duration

Scientific and indigenous indicators that hazard is likely to happen

Time between warning and impact Rapidity of arrival and impactâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;we can distinguish between hazards that occur without almost any warning (earthquake), and a hazard that can be predicted three to four days in advance (typhoon) to a very slow-onset hazard like drought and famine Does hazard occur seasonally, one a year or every five years Does it occur in a particular time of the year (wet or dry season) How long is hazard felt - earthquake and aftershocks; days/weeks/months that area is flooded, length of military operations

Community Hazard Assessment â&#x20AC;&#x201C; defines the threats and understands the nature and behavior of particular hazards. The assessment brings out information on the characteristics of hazards, specifically, the hazard force, warning signs and signals, forewarning, speed of onset, frequency, period of occurrence and duration.

Exercise on how the hazard will affect me and my community? 2 Hazard_________________________________________ Characteristics

Elements

Exposure Variables Description of the Hazard

How will it affect me?

How will it affect my community?

Force

Warning signs and signal

Forewarning

Speed of onset

Frequency

Period of occurrence

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Duration

Vulnerability Assessment3 Vulnerability is a very complex term. It can be defined in so many ways. It is a very controversial term that many people end up more confused after reading a lot of definitions. This paper attempts to present an interpretation to further simplify the term and provide two opposing perspectives. It will also define the meaning of vulnerability assessment after making an assumption on the term vulnerability. There are two schools of thoughts that define vulnerability. These are the following: 1. Vulnerability = Unsafe Location of Element at Risk â&#x20AC;&#x153;The degree to which an area, people, physical structures or economic assets are exposed to loss, injury or damage caused by the impact of a hazardâ&#x20AC;? Disaster Management: A Disaster Manager's Handbook, Chapter 2 and Appendix A. Disaster Mitigation in Asia and the Pacific, p 30-40. The above definition can be interpreted in this mathematical formula: Vulnerability = the location of element at risk to hazard Degree of Vulnerability = The location of element at risks Distance and Time The drawing below demonstrate this assumption.

Prepared by: Rusty Binas, Director, Regional Center for Latin America, International Institute of Rural Reconstruction. Email-oticbabes@yahoo.com

Rich Poor

Medium vulnerable to Flood

Flood zone

River Highly vulnerable to Flood

Highly vulnerable to Flood

Low vulnerable to Flood

The location of the element at risk (the rich and poor house) determines the degree of exposures to hazard or the degree of vulnerability. This shows that whether you are rich or poor, if you are living in the same location, you are equally having the same degree of vulnerability to the impact of the hazard. This assumption clearly shows that your capacity which refers to your socio-economic status does not determine your degree of vulnerability. Thus, in this assumption vulnerability mainly refers to the location of element at risk. The location of the element at risk determines the degree of exposures to the impact of hazards. In measuring disaster risk based in the above assumption, the mathematical presentation is: Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Capacity Here it shows that capacity is a separate variable and does is not subsumed by both hazard and vulnerability. 2. The conditions of element at risk The other schools of thoughts defines vulnerability as â&#x20AC;&#x153;a set of prevailing or consequencial conditions, which adversly affect the community's ability to prevent, mitigate, prepare for or respond to hazard eventsâ&#x20AC;? Anderson and Woodrow (1989). The other related definition of vulnerability which is being promoted by International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR), is the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environemtal factors or process, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of a hazard.

The above definition can be interpreted in this mathematical formula: Vulnerability = unsafe conditions it could be physical, economic, social, behavioral and environmental Degree of Vulnerability = ideal safe conditions â&#x20AC;&#x201C; (minus) existing unsafe conditions The drawing below demonstrate this assumption.

Rich Poor Flood zone

River High vulnerable to Flood

Low vulnerable to Flood

The gaps between the ideal and unsafe condition of the element at risk determines the degree of exposures to hazard or the degree of vulnerability. This shows also if you are rich, living in the same location with the poor, the degree of vulnerability to the impact of the hazard is different. This assumption clearly shows that that capacity which refers to socio-economic status determines the degree of vulnerability. Thus, in this assumption vulnerability refers to the ideal conditions minus the actual unsafe conditions of element at risk. The gaps between ideal conditions and the existing unsafe conditions of the element at risk determine the degree of exposures to the impact of hazards. In measuring disaster risk based in the above assumption, the mathematical presentation is: Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

Here it shows that capacity is integral part of vulnerability. Categorizing or grouping vulnerability came about because of the assumption that vulnerability is the conditions of element at risk. Maskrey (1998) group vulnerabilities into the following categories:

Categories Physical Vulnerability Technical Vulnerability Economic Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability Social Vulnerability

Political Vulnerability Cultural Vulnerability Educational Vulnerability Institutional Vulnerability

Examples communities is hazard prone locations (in flood plain or a coastal location exposed to cyclones) structures and infrastructures (houses roads, bridges, irrigation channels, etc) unable to withstand and resist hazard events insufficient assets and reserves to withstand loss; lack of economic diversification lack of biodiversity; incapacity of ecosystem to resist and recover family size, existence of community organizations and social support mechanisms; age structure of community; gender differences; racial, ethnic, religious discrimination etc level of participation in decision making, existence of authoritarianism and corruption, political violence, justice and conflict resolution mechanisms systems of beliefs regarding hazards, vulnerabilities and disasters lack of information or misinformation regarding risk scenarios -lack of public services, planning, emergency preparedness and response, etc.

Anderson and Woodrow (1989) group vulnerabilities into three broad interrelated categories, the following are: Physical/material

Vulnerability

Social/organizational

Motivational/attitudinal

Categories Physical/material vulnerability

Examples • • • • • • • • • • • •

Social/organizational vulnerability

• • • • • • • •

Motivational/attitudinal vulnerability

• • • • • • • •

Disaster-prone location of community, houses, farmlands, infrastructure, basic services, etc. insecure sources of livelihood risky sources of livelihood lack of access and control over means of production (land, farm inputs, animals, capital, etc.) dependent on moneylenders, usurers, etc. inadequate economic fall-back mechanisms occurrence of acute or chronic food shortage lack of adequate skills and educational background lack of basic services: education, health, safe drinking water, shelter, sanitation, roads, electricity, communication, etc. high mortality rates, malnutrition, occurrence of diseases, insufficient caring capacity overexploited natural resources exposure to violence (domestic, community conflicts, or war) weak family/kinship structures lack of leadership, initiative, organizational structures to solve problems or conflicts ineffective decision-making, people/groups are left out, etc. unequal participation in community affairs rumors, divisions, conflicts: ethnic, class, religion, caste, ideology, etc. injustice practices, lack of access to political processes absence or weak community organizations ((in)formal, governmental, indigenous) no or neglected relationship with government, administrative structures isolated from outside world negative attitude towards change passivity, fatalism, hopelessness, dependent lack of initiative, no ‘fighting spirit” lack of unity, cooperation, solidarity negative beliefs/ideologies unawareness about hazards and consequences dependence on external support/dole-out mentality

Two Opposing Perspectives: It’s Importance in Measuring Disaster Risks Vulnerability is one of the variables needed to measure the degree of disaster risks aside from the hazard as another variable. Vulnerability is closely related to a hazard and it is determined based on a clear understanding of a hazard. Thus, vulnerability is hazard specific. Capacity is another variable that make up the entire formula in measuring disaster risks.

The only difference in two opposing perspectives is how they treat capacity which have a have implications in determining disaster risk. Community Vulnerability Assessment – This assessment is to understand “why a “person or a property is at risk?” Vulnerability analysis is the process of estimating the susceptibility of 'elements at risk' in the community to various hazards.

The Vulnerability Exercise• Hazard Profile

Grades

Describe your

High

Medium

Why Low

Location

•

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Living with Vulnerability• Decisions Made

Needs and Action at what level?

•

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The degree of

Vulnerability is

O V E R N

Accepted

Not

M E N T

Evade hazard

Do something

by transferring

with your

into other

P Individual

needs and

Action

I C Y

Do something to

Community

prevent or

something

needs and

mitigate the

with your

impact of the

support

Action

Survivability – is to manage to stay alive or continue to exist, especially in hazard event. Readiness - group/community organization functioning as a system prepared for any hazard that is going to happen.

Capacities Assessment 4 Mary Fotina Katopala, a Relief and Rehabilitation Coordinator of CADECOM, Malawi claimed a song ease up the situation minimizing adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. This is a song to win back the heart of his husband after fighting all night long. “Come all and witness what has befallen me. This man who used to love me so much has now turned his back against me. I vowed, and repeat my vows, he is my husband and nothing will separate us.” The song is being sung by woman as a powerful tool to reconcile conflict. She explains that before conflict turns into a disaster, many can be done such as increasing community capacities and one of this is her song as a tool for reconciliation. This paper will define capacities, coping capacities and capacity assessment.

Chia ndi ine chiri ndi ine gyad gyad. Chiri ndi ine eeee (2X) Amuna anga amene ndimawakonda awaa Chiri ndi ineeee Ayamba Kundimenya usiku onseeee Chiri ndi, ineeeeee

ISDR refers to Capacities as a combination of all the strength and resources available within community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risks or the effects of a disaster. Capacity may include physical, social, institutional or economic means as well as skilled personal or collective attributes such as leadership and management. Similar definition of capacities are strengths and resources, which exist or are present in individuals, households and the community, which enable them to cope with, withstand, prepare for, prevent, mitigate, or quickly recover from a disaster. Another way of looking at Capacities and how they differ from capabilities is shown below: Capacities

Physical/ Material

Technology Financial Human resources

Capabilities

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Skills

Capacities and capabilities are directly related. Capabilities are embedded under the human resource of capacities.

Capacities

Physical/ Material Financial Technology Financial Human resources

Capabilities

Knowledge Attitude Skills

Capability to manage capacities is tantamount to coping capacity. ISDR secretariat defines coping capacity as the means by which people or organizations use available resources and abilities to face (to cope with) adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. They added that in general, this involves managing resources, both in normal times as well as during crises or adverse conditions. Coping capacities can be developed overtime. Some coping capacities are acquired through experiences in adverse situations and proper specialized training and some could be fully utilized if resources are within the access of individual, community or organizations. Coping capacities can be categorized as follows: Categories Survivability (activities that deal with individual vulnerabilities) Readiness (activities that deals with community vulnerabilities)

Refers to: to manage to stay alive or continue to exist, especially in difficult situations

group/community organization functioning as a system prepared for any hazard that is going to happen

Prevention and Mitigation (activities that deals squarely with the Hazard)

Mitigation covers measures, which can be taken to minimize the destructive and disruptive effects of hazards and thus lessen the magnitude of a disaster. Mitigation measures can range from physical measures such as flood defenses or safe building design, to legislation and nonstructural measures such as training, organizing disaster volunteers, public awareness, food security programs and advocacy on development issues. Prevention covers activities designed to impede the occurrence of a disaster event and/or prevent such an occurrence from having harmful effects on communities and facilities. Usual examples are safety standards for industries, flood control measures and land use regulations. Poverty alleviation and assets redistribution schemes such as land reform, provision of basic needs and services such as preventive health care, education are other non-structural measures.

Anderson and Woodrow (1989) categorizes capacities on the following: â&#x20AC;˘ Physical/material: People with economic and material resources can survive better. These may come in the form of cash, land, tools, food, jobs, or access to credit. The appropriateness and abundance of people's resources make a difference as to whether they can handle or control any kind of threat (resilience) and whether they can lead a satisfying and dignified life. For example, people with access to food and clean water have better health to withstand disease; those with the means can afford materials and skills to make their homes strong against cyclones. â&#x20AC;˘ Social/organizational: People have social resources that help them cope with, resist and handle the threats they may face. For example, communities that are close-knit and have social networks for support are stronger. Communities where good leadership, caring local and national institutions are in place, and where people share the physical resources they have in times of need are more likely to survive. These communities may be economically poor but can be socially strong. Â&#x192;

Attitudinal/motivational: People, who are aware of their abilities and have confidence in themselves, are better able to cope with a crisis. When they are having a sense of control over events and the power to change their condition, they are less vulnerable to threats.

Coping capacities are hazard and vulnerability specifics. Below is to demonstrate the coping capacities that are specific to the degree of vulnerability.

Rich Poor

Medium vulnerable to Flood

Flood Highly vulnerable to Flood

zone

River Highly vulnerable to Flood