Housing Needs in Europe

HOUSING NEEDS IN EUROPE Dilek Tosun

CECODHAS Housing Europe RESEARCH BRIEFING Year 6/Number 1, May 2013

http://www.housingeurope.eu/publication/research-briefings

Housing is the prior need of every individual in any civilized society, and social housing is an instrument securing social stability and supporting sustainable economic growth. This report presents an overview on housing needs in Europe and how some specific EU countries are dealing with this issue, in particular in the current context of financial crisis and austerity measures adopted by their governments. Hence, first, the status quo on housing is reviewed through some figures in order to provide a comprehensive outline of the situation in each country addressed within the scope of the report, and subsequently a brief analysis on housing needs is employed for all the countries involved. Finally, a general conclusion is drawn with a view to making room for improvements of the policy framework on the issue.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

8420

Statistics Austria

Number of Households (*1000)

3650

Statistics Austria

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

4140

IIBW

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

490

IIBW

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

952

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.3

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

22%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

88%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.7

OECD

Households Owning Their Own Dwellings

58%

Eurostat

Housing Needs Despite the high rate of construction in Austria, the housing need has not yet been met due to a high housing demand stemming from the relatively high level of immigration, in particular to the urban areas; as well as due to major demographic changes such as aging population, independent living, etc.1

1

CECODHAS Housing Europe.

At present, in Austria, some 40 thousand new dwellings are delivered annually, and this figure needs to remain steady for the next 10 years according to the future projections.2 Therefore it needs to be pointed out that Austrian housing development system will need to adapt to the new trends.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

11900

Portal Belgium

Number of Households (*1000)

4570

Portal Belgium

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

5000

CECODHAS HE

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

457

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

350

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.31

EUR-Lex

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

20%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

95%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

2.1

OECD

Households Owning Their Own Dwellings

69.5%

EUR-Lex

Housing Needs According to recent statistics release, the Brussels Region should create 80 000 housing units by 2020, or 7-8 000 dwellings per year, to respond to demographic growth (between 160 000 and 180 000 new households by 2020 according to projections)3.

The Flemish region counted around 2.98 million homes and 2.65 million households in 2011.4 The number of households in the region is expected to grow to 2.9 million by the year 2030. This will increase the demand for more affordable and high standard houses. Besides, new demographic trends will likely pave the way for smaller houses due to shrinking household size. In 2011, total social rental stock in Flanders was nearly 148.2 thousand; and the percentage of households living in social houses was 5.6%, which is quite low compared to most of the European countries. However, it is estimated

2

RegioData Research for Europe.

Le Soir, 6 May 2013 4 Flemish Agency for Social Housing, 2013.

3

that nearly 180.000 households are in need of social housing in the region. Therefore, there is a general agreement in Flanders on the need for more social dwellings in the rental sector.

Nonetheless, the current annual production of social rental dwellings in the region is around 1.8 thousand. This figure is expected to grow in the upcoming years; in particular, by virtue of the new decree of Flemish government regarding land and premises; due to the fact that the Flemish Government is aiming to have 42.000 new social dwellings in the rental sector by 2023.5

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

10510

Czech Statistical Office

Number of Households (*1000)

4410

Czech Statistical Office

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

4750

Czech Statistical Office

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

N/A

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

N/A

Average Household Size

2.5

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

26%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

85.2%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.4

OECD

Households Owning Their Own Dwellings

63%

State Housing Dev. Fund

Housing Needs In the Czech Republic, the housing stock comprises some 4.75 million dwellings of which only some 4.10 million is occupied. This figure, by itself, proves that there is a high vacant housing rate in the country.6 Despite this, there is a shortage of affordable housing for people who cannot afford to purchase a home or to pay the market rent. High energy intensity caused by insufficient investments in the housing stock is another issue in the country, since the housing stock is quite old; 41.9% of dwellings were built prior to 1945.7 Besides, due to the low-quality prefabricated materials used between 1954 – 1994 for the construction of almost 1.2 million flats across the country, there is an 5

Flemish Agency for Social Housing. (2013).

Czech Statistical Office.

7 Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Ireland. (2004). Regular National Report on Housing Developments in European Countries Synthesis Report.

6

urgent need for reconstruction and modernization. However, only 25–30% of blocks have been reconstructed so far for energy efficiency purposes.8 Furthermore, the number of households vulnerable to social exclusion is also growing in the Czech Republic. Another important issue for the Czech Republic is that the support of NGOs for social housing and housing management is absent in the country. Besides, examples of discriminatory practices in the housing market have been reported against ethnic minorities, young families with children and families with more children, incomplete families and households of immigrants.

New trends such as aging population, and increase in the number of single-member householdsshould be taken into account for the formulation of new strategies and policies regarding housing.9

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

5600

Statistics Denmark

Number of Households (*1000)

2600

Statistics Denmark

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

2700

Ministry of Housing, Urban & Rural Aff.

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

500

Dept. of Env., Heritage & Local Gov. Ireland

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

595

Ministry of Housing, Urban & Rural Aff.

Average Household Size

2.0

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures in Net Disposable Income

26%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

91.5%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.9

OECD

Housing Needs In spite of the plentiful, diverse and high quality nature of the Danish housing stock, neighbourhood quality, accessibility and affordability remain as an issue. Besides, demographic changes (ie. ageing population, splitting households) and economic outcomes (ie. rising unemployment rate) has posed new problems. For instance, there is a growing demand in Denmark for independent living by young 8

CECODHAS Housing Europe.

Ministry of Regional Development State Housing Development Fund. Housing Policy Context of the Czech Republic till 2020.

9

people. Not to mention the importance of promoting energy renovations in social housing in the country.10

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

1340

Statistics Estonia

Number of Households (*1000)

600

Statistics Estonia

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

657

Statistics Estonia

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

485

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

6.57

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.3

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

21%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

77%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.2

OECD

Housing Needs The last decade has seen a decrease in the share of households with two or more children and an increase in the share of single-family households in Estonia.11 Today, people living alone, households with two members and pensioner households have the highest proportion of the population.

Estonia can be considered as relatively well stocked with housing as regards to the number of dwellings, but its quality and energy consumption is an issue.12 For instance, 60% of the housing stock was built between the years of 1960-1990 and 30% before 1960. Large amount of blocks of flats are from soviet time. Even in terms of basic amenities, 88.9% of people in Estonia live in dwellings with private access to indoor flushing toilets, lower than the OECD average of 97.8% and one of the lowest rates across the OECD.13 In Estonia, the average life expectancy of a dwelling is 70 years; this lifespan needs to be lengthened through renovation and repairs. However current renovation rate is under 1% in the country. In Estonia, the next decade will bring along the need for the reconstruction to increase more

10

Engberg, L. A. Sustainable Renovation in Danish social housing? A case-study of the Taastrupgaard renovation.

ENHR, European Network of Housing Research conference 2009.

11 Statistics Estonia.

12 University of Tartu. (2011). Sustainable Innovation in Construction: Background Paper for Estonia.

13 OECD Better Life Index.

than 8 thousand dwellings annually due to the changing demographic composition of the population.14

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

5390

Statistics Finland

Number of Households (*1000)

2490

Statistics Finland

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

2840

Statistics Finland

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

530

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

454

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.07

Statistics Finland

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

23%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

93%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.9

OECD

Housing Needs At the end of 2011, 24% of the population lived in rented dwellings in Finland, and there is an increase in the number of people living alone in rented and owner-occupied dwellings. The number of units with one and two persons was 74% at the end of 2011; and 41% of the total housing units hosted singleperson household.15 In 2010, about 26 thousand new housing units were completed in Finland; this number was 22.000 in 2009.16 Nonetheless, it needs to be pointed out that abovementioned demographic trends should be further analysed and be of concern for all housing related projects in the country.

Finland is expected to have the third oldest population in Europe by 2030. Hence, the Finnish housing market will need to adapt this new situation at hand to meet the demands of an older population.

However, the problem is the government does not regularly collect housing data specific to older population. Besides, new housing projects in the country addressing this issue have slowed down due to

14

Estonian Union of Co-operative Housing Association. Power House Nearly Zero Challenge. Dresden, 2012.

Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Ireland. (2004). Regular National Report on Housing Developments in European Countries Synthesis Report.

16 VVO Finland Website.

15

the financial issues encountered. However, government-subsidized loans have been identified as a possibility for older adults seeking residences in the near future.17

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

64300

EUR-Lex

Number of Households (*1000)

26000

EUR-Lex

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

33000

EUR-Lex

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

509

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

4500

EUR-Lex

Average Household Size

2.2

CECODHAS HE

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

21%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

91%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.8

OECD

Housing Needs Housing is one of the priority areas in France; hence the government currently had an objective to build 2.5 million new dwellings, of which 750 thousand are social. However, this objective seems to be far from being achieved; mainly because of the structural deficit in the housing supply. In other words, housing supply is declining; in 2007 for instance, 434 023 dwellings were built. In 2009, however, this number was only 291 262, which indicates a 33% decline. Moreover, this supply does not meet the needs in the sector, which means 500 thousand new dwellings have to be built per year to meet the need. However, today, the number of new construction amounts to 363 thousand, meaning 27.5% more dwellings need to be built. Another issue is that the housing is getting more and more expensive in France. For instance, between the period of 2000-2011, the price of an old apartment increased by 117%, and the price of a classic Parisian apartment increased by 186%.18 There is also a strong demand for social housing in France, in particular in urban areas. As of now, for instance, 1.7 million requests are pending. Besides, there are huge regional disparities in terms of housing needs. For instance, while there is a huge attractiveness and growth in the number of 17

Aging in Action. (2011). Senior Residences in Finland.

France Union Sociale pour l’Habitat (USH), 2013.

18

households in one region; in the other one, the need or the demand is very low. Some 62% of the social housing is located in towns or cities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants (with major concentrations around Paris and Lyon), but 14% is in small towns or rural areas.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

81800

GdW

Number of Households (*1000)

40400

GdW

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

40136

EUR-Lex

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

490

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

2006

GdW

Average Household Size

2.0

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

22%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

93%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.8

OECD

Housing Needs The average household size has been declining in Germany over the past 20 years, whilst the proportion of single-person or two-person households is increasing.19 Housing demand is expected to increase by around 6% by 2025 and there is an annual requirement of 183 thousand new housing units across the country between 2010 and 2025 (154 thousand units in the West and 29 thousand units in the East).

However, across Germany, only 20% of the construction volume goes towards the construction of new housing units, since investment in existing residential properties is much more common.20 Statistics reveal that there is no replacement of social dwellings in Germany and their availability has a downward trend. Since 1998, the number of new social dwellings entering the system has never exceeded 100 thousand annually, and since 2001 until today, this number has been far below 50 thousand. About 100 thousand social houses are leaving the system annually in Germany (in the sense that after a certain time period the owner can sell or rent the house at the market price), while only an 19

The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). (2010). Does Size Matter? The Impact of Changes in Household Structure on Income Distribution in Germany.

20 Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Sustainable Development. (2012). Housing and Property Markets in Germany 2011 At a Glance.

estimated 30 to 40 thousand new social houses have entered it annually for the last decade, implying a continuing reduction of social houses in the future.21 Another issue for Germany is the need for adaptation of the housing stock to the needs of the ageing population. It is estimated that in Germany there are about 600 thousand ‘adapted’ residential units (about 1.5% of the total housing stock), and demand in 2020 will be up to 3 million. This would entail a cost of up to 225 billion for new construction and up to 30 billion for conversion/adaptation of existing dwellings22.

As for the energy modernization, 62% of housing units are modernized in Germany since 1990, thereof 34.5% comprehensively and 27.5% partially. High refurbishment quality means higher cost. For instance, comprehensive energy savings of 60-70% are estimated to require investments of 400 to 600 EUR/m².23

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

9930

Hungarian Central Stat. Office

Number of Households (*1000)

4100

Hungarian Central Stat. Office

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

4400

Hungarian Central Stat. Office

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

429

The Hague Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

163

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.6

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

23%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

79%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.0

OECD

Housing Needs The main issue with housing in Hungary today is the low-quality of the housing stock in terms of comfort, location, accessibility, difficult neighbourhood, overcrowding, high density housing, 21

CECODHAS Housing Europe.

CECODHAS Housing Europe.

23 GdW, 2013.

22

affordability, high energy costs, etc. Legal security of tenure, the complexity of housing subsidy systems, the lack of reliable and accessible information concerning the housing market, the obstacles regarding efficient condominium use, and the lack of regulation in private lending are also issues which need to be addressed urgently in the country.24 Even though, the number of dwellings in Hungary is currently more than the number of households, there is a shortage of dwellings in some parts of the country where the economic growth is strongest. High vacancy rates, inadequate maintenance as well as the poor housing standards are other issues regarding housing. Besides, the average age of dwellings is old in the country compared to European terms.25

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

4600

Ireland Central Statistics Office

Number of Households (*1000)

1650

Ireland Central Statistics Office

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

2000

Ireland Central Statistics Office

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

N/A

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

174

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.7

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

18%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

94%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

2.1

OECD

Housing Needs The housing need program of Ireland shows that 98 thousand families are in need in the country; and this need is mainly concentrated in the urban areas, with 25% of those are in Dublin.

The most recent census figures show that there are 294 thousand vacant dwellings in Ireland, including the holiday homes. Of these 294 thousand, 4 thousand dwellings have been identified to be transferred into social housing by the national bank. However, in the last year, only 200 of those dwellings have been managed to be transferred into social housing.

24

Budapest Metropolitan Research Institute. (2009). Housing Needs in Hungary.

Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Ireland. (2004). Regular National Report on Housing Developments in European Countries Synthesis Report.

25

In addition, capital investment for housing provision has been cut by 85% since 2007, and the Municipality housing supply has fallen by 90% in the last 5 years. Based on these figures, 75 years are needed to meet the challenges with regard to social housing. The number of those in need of local authority housing in Ireland has increased by 75% since 2008, from 56 000 applicants to 98 000. The responsibility for the provision of housing, and the risk in that provision is falling on a very small number of cooperative and voluntary bodies.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

60600

Italian National Institute of Stat.

Number of Households (*1000)

25200

Italian National Institute of Stat.

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

21600

FEDERCASA

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

N/A

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

1149

FEDERCASA

Average Household Size

2.4

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

23%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

92%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.4

OECD

Housing Needs Despite a significant increase in the number of households, there is a gradual reduction in the production of new housing in Italy. During the period 2004-2010, on average, each year, and 243.000 homes were built. All these demographic trends are considered, there is a potential demand of approximately 596 thousand homes in the country.26 In Italy, 450 thousand of social housing dwellings are in need of urgent retrofitting. Users of these units on average pay 100â‚Ź rent per month, and 2 or 3 times as much for heating and electricity. However, such low fees do not suffice even a proper routine maintenance of housing.27

26

ANCE, Osservatorio Congiunturale 2012.

Building Energy Efficiency in European Cities. Anna Maria Pozzo on Housing and Sustainable Development in Italy. (2012).

27

In Italy, neither the central government nor the Municipalities have invested in the provision of public housing during the last 30 years. The dramatic cutbacks of public funding on social housing stemming from the economic crisis in the country, very low rents and relatively high taxation in public housing risk to undermine the financial sustainability of the sector28.

Overall today only 18% of the housing stock is rental hosuign, plus this stock is unevenly distributed across the country. Besides, in recent years the rental prices have significantly increased by 50% on average nationally, 85% in large cities, and even 200% in Rome and Milan, while salaries have remained stable. Evictions caused by unpaid rents are increasing year by year; for instance, in 2009, there were 50.000 evictions.29

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

512

CECODHAS HE

Number of Households (*1000)

202

CECODHAS HE

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

188

CECODHAS HE

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

389

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

3.76

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.5

The Hague Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

25%

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

N/A

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.9

OECD

OECD

Housing Needs Even though the construction of new dwellings in Luxembourg in recent years increased strongly, (2.266 dwellings in 2006, 3.023 in 2007 and 4.444 in 2008), this trend stopped in 2009 due to the

28

Building Energy Efficiency in European Cities. Anna Maria Pozzo on Housing and Sustainable Development in Italy. (2012).

29 Italian Ministry of the Interior (2011).

economic downturn in the country (only 3.740 dwellings constructed in that year) and construction output today is still insufficient.30 The distribution of new housing is uneven in the country; and renting and purchasing a dwelling in the city of Luxembourg is particularly expensive31. Social housing policy is not meeting the housing need of the country: more than 1.2 thousand applicants are on waiting lists32. Experts believe tcurrent house prices in Luxembrug are over-valued33.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

16700

Statistics Netherlands

Number of Households (*1000)

7500

Statistics Netherlands

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

7500

AEDES

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

431

The Hague Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

2500

AEDES

Average Household Size

2.2

Statistics Netherlands

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

22%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

92%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

2.0

OECD

Housing Needs 80 thousand dwellings are expected to be built per year in the Netherlands by private and social housing institutes. However, this number dropped dramatically to 40 thousand last year; and this year it is expected to be around 30 thousand. Overall, an housing shortage of 185 thousand dwellings is expected by 2025.

In particular, due to the high tax rates levied on social housing institutes, the investment in social housing is anticipated to decline substantially for the upcoming years. In 2014, for instance, 10-12 30

The Hague Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations. (2010). Housing Statistics in the European Union.

Gsir. S. (2007). Case Study on Housing: Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

32 OECD. (2013). Strengthening Social Cohesion In Luxembourg: Making Efficiency And Equity Go Hand In Hand.

33 OECD. (2012). Economic Surveys Luxembourg.

31

thousand new dwellings are expected to be built, instead of 20-30 thousand. At the moment social housing represents 60% of new constructions, however this will probably change due to the trends mentioned above34.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

38500

CECODHAS HE

Number of Households (*1000)

13300

CECODHAS HE

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

13300

CECODHAS HE

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

348.5

Heged端s, J., Lux, M. & Teller, N. (2013)

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

1330

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.8

Heged端s, J., Lux, M. & Teller, N. (2013)

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

24%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

84%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.6

OECD

Housing Needs Nearly 12 million people (1/3 of the population) live in overcrowded homes in Poland. International comparisons show that the number of dwellings in Poland is very limited and the existing ones are very small (the average dwelling in Poland is 61 m2, 56 m2 in towns)35. Overall, it is estimated that the housing shortage in Poland amounts to 1.5 - 1.8 million dwellings. Furthermore, recent demographic trends (ie. migration, ageing population, increase in the number of smaller-sized households, etc.) have increased demand for housing, while housing supply remained relatively low. This paved the way for a very significant increase in the cost of housing as a proportion of net disposable income (from 16% in 1995 to 22% in 2005, one of the biggest increases among OECD countries). 36

34

AEDES, 2013.

Kaltenberg-Kwiatkowska, E. (2002). The Housing Situation in Poland: Perceptions of the Problem. Challenges and Opportunities in Housing: New Concepts, Policies and Initiatives, Riga, CIB and City of Riga, 109-117.

36 OECD Better Life Index.

35

The quality of existing housing is also an issue. Half of the housing stock was built before 197037 and hence require substantial repairs, and around 700 thousand should be replaced in the next 5 to 10 years.38 Besides, low-quality building materials and poor insulation results in high energy consumption of housing in the country.39

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

46800

Eurostat

Number of Households (*1000)

18100

Eurostat

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

25200

Spain National Statistics Institute

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

544

The Hague Min. of the Interior and Kingdom Relations

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

250

Spanish Social Housing Assoc.

Average Household Size

2.7

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

20%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

94%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.9

OECD

Housing Needs Even though there is a large housing stock in Spain, demand for affordable housing solutions is far from being met, due to the fact that a significant share of existing units is owned either by banks or other financial institutions acting on the basis of profit and not of social concerns. Moreover, in many cases, these homes are located in places where there is no social demand, for instance along the coast.

Housing demand in Spain today can only be met through intervention by the public sector. However, public rental housing represents only 1% of total housing stock, as since in the 70s, 80s and early 90s, the social houses in the rental stock have been sold to the tenants as a result of the big privatization in the market. Hence, there is an urgent need to provide more affordable rental housing. However, social housing enterprises in the country suffer from the fact that the National Housing Plan has been frozen

37

OECD. (2011). Urban Policy Reviews: Poland.

Housing Initiative for Eastern Europe (IWO e.V.) Website.

39 Habitat for Humanity, Poland.

38

due to the current economic crisis. In fact, since July 2012, state aids on social housing have been cut, and the new plan 2013-2017 has not yet been approved.

The lack of housing supply along with increasing unemployment is paving the way for a ‘social disaster’.

To overcome this situation at hand, together with some other measures, a credit line that enables the access to social rent houses and that brings the support for the development of the sector through bank loans; intensive and extensive funded plans and efficient energy renovations are needed40.

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

9218

Statistics Sweden

Number of Households (*1000)

4656

Statistics Sweden

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

4500

CECODHAS HE

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

479

CECODHAS HE

Number of Public Rental Housing Units (*1000)

790

CECODHAS HE

Average Household Size

2.1

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

22%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

92%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.8

OECD

Housing Needs Last year, as expected to be the same this year, 20 thousand dwellings were built in Sweden. However, this figure needs to be more than doubled in order to meet the need. According to the government agency responsible for housing, about 43 thousand new dwellings per year are needed in the country over the next 5- 10 years to meet demand. Sweden has the most powerful urbanization of all European countries, which means the shortage is more dramatic in the growing cities. Besides, all over the country Sweden has a lack of accessible dwellings for elderly.

As for the renovation, there was a program in Sweden called “Million Homes Program” implemented between 1965 and 1974. In other words, 1 million homes in 1 decade were built in that period in the country in order to make sure that everyone could have a home at a reasonable price. Public rental 40

Spanish Social Housing Association (AVS), 2013.

companies own 55% of these dwellings, while 25% is private rental and the rest is cooperative.

However, this stock needs renovation. About 850 thousand dwellings from that period are located in multifamily houses. About 300 thousand of these dwellings are owned by public rental housing companies. Of these, only 50 thousand dwellings were renovated until today, and there are no subsidies to support this effort.41

Facts and Figures INDICATORS

FIGURES

SOURCES

Number of Inhabitants (*1000)

62600

UK Office for National Statistics

Number of Households (*1000)

26400

UK Office for National Statistics

Number of Existing Housing Units (*1000)

27264

Department for Communities and Local Government

Number of Units per 1000 Inhabitants

443

CECODHAS HE

Number of Social Housing Units (*1000)

4916

Department for Communities and Local Government

Average Household Size

2.3

Eurostat

Housing Expenditures As A Percentage of Disposable Income

23%

OECD

Satisfaction with Housing Situation

89%

OECD

Average Number of Rooms Shared per Person

1.8

OECD

Housing Needs In England there are no longer national targets set for housebuilding. However, for social housing, the Affordable Homes Programme running for 5 years between 2011 and 2015, has set a target to build 80 thousand new homes at costs of GBP 12 billion (appr. 14 bn EUR) for which a GBP 1.6 billion (appr. 1.87 bn EUR) government grant has been made available.

Looking at the delivery over the time, from 1990 to 2011, the vast majority of house building was done privately in England, followed respectively by housing associations with only a tiny proportion contributed by local authorities. At the peak in 2007, just before the recession, 173 thousand units were built in England (31 thousand of which were social housing units); however, since 2007 a sharp fall in 41

Swedish Association of Public Housing Companies (SABO), 2013.

completion rates can be observed with only 109 thousand units being completed in 2011 (44 thousand of which as social housing), a 37% drop in completions from 2007.

By 2030 the number of households in England is projected to grow to 26.7 million, an increase of 4.5 million (20%) over 2011, or on average 236,410 households per year. This poses a major challenge to the housebuilding industry when compared with current and historical completion rates.

Another significant change is the ageing population; forecasts for the period between 2011 and 2030 indicate an increase by 55% of people over the age of 70. This means by 2030 one in six people in England will be aged 70 or over. This implies an important change in terms of age groups, and accordingly, changing demand in housing for very different customer profiles in the market. In parallel there is a significant increase in one person households: two-thirds of the total households expected to be established every year are projected to be one person households.

In the context of social housing there is currently a debate on-going about under-occupation; welfare reforms introduced by the UK Government will cut the amount of benefit that people can get if they are deemed to have a spare bedroom in their council or housing association home. However, smaller properties are not available in sufficient numbers to offer alternative homes to those tenants affected.

Private sector rents are forecasted to increase between 2012 and 2018 by about 35% on average in England with the highest increase projected in the East Midlands (40.5%) followed by the East of England (40.2%). This significant increase is fuelled by a shift from owner-occupied properties to rented accommodation, a market sector which is not particularly well developed in England in comparison to other EU countries.42

This report has attempted to outline certain basic findings with respect to the housing needs in Europe.

To address this issue, the status quo in selected European countries has been reviewed along with the future projections in the field based on the current demographic trends and financial challenges. In this

42

National Housing Federation, 2013.

chapter of the report, emerging issues concerning housing are highlighted. Addressing some of the shortcomings from the current situation, the following points arose: There is a high housing demand in many European countries caused by several factors including high level of immigration, demographic changes, etc. However, housing supply is not able to keep pace with increasing demand. There is even a gradual reduction in the production of new housing in almost all the countries investigated within the scope of this report.

Even in countries where there is no overall housing shortage, there is still a problem with providing sufficient levels of good quality and affordable homes.

New demographic trends are gradually changing the outlook of the society in many European countries. For instance, shrinking household sizes and growing number of households are interconnected urgent issues in Belgium, England, Luxembourg, etc. Ageing population is another issue needs to be addressed immediately in many countries such as Denmark, Finland, Germany, etc.

Increasing housing prices is another subject-matter common to most of the countries analyzed in this report. For instance, it considerably expensive in recent years in France, Norway, Luxembourg, etc.

High energy intensity caused by insufficient investments in the housing stock has also arisen as an issue mainly due to the fact that the housing stock is quite old, and hence there is an urgent need for renovation in almost all the countries examined within the context of this research.

To conclude, this report has identified several elements on the areas of improvements regarding housing needs in Europe that can contribute towards a positive outlook for its sustainable future path.

For further information on the briefings’ series, please contact: alice.pittini@housingeurope.eu CECODHAS Housing Europe Observatory 18 Square de Meeus - 1050 Brussels, Belgium http://www.housingeurope.eu/about/observatory