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Macroeconomic Outlook GDP According to estimations made by the Central Bank of Montenegro, the Montenegrin GDP in 2010 amounted to €3.025 million, recording a growth rate at a level of 0.5%. This data indicates that the Montenegrin economy has come out of its phase of recession. Graphic 1. GDP in current prices - in mil € 12.0%
10.7% 3,085.6 8.6%
3,025.0
2,981.0
2,680.5
8.0% 6.9%
6.0%
2,149.0
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
4.0% 0.5%
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2010 were higher for 1.01% in comparison to 2008, and lower for 54.62% in relation to 2009. However, if we exempt the part related to the trade of shares of State Power Company (EPCG) made by company A2A, which amounted €436 milion, the FDI in 2010 recorded the incrise of 9,14% in comparison to 2009. Bearing in mind specificity of share trade of company EPCG, with exception of 2009, FDI recorded a constant growth starting from 2005. According to projections of Montenegrin Investment Agency (MIPA), FDI will range between €660 and €730 million in 2011 with probability of 75 - 80%. Although the first quarter gave hint more significant fall of FDI in 2010, the other three quarters recorded the trend of their intensifying. Data show that FDI fully amortized “delayed effect” of the financial crisis in the Montenegro, so that we can speak about investment recovery in Montenegro. However, this positive trend of FDI should not misleade us. The amount of FDI in 2011 to great extent is related to privatization projects and spatial plans which allow Greenfield investments. In the moment of preparation of this report, Plan of privatization for 2011 has not been adopted. Situation is similar with large number of urban spatial plans. Source: Montenegrin Investment Promotion Agency (MIPA)
Source: Monstat
4
2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
-5.7%
-4.0% -6.0%
2006
2007
2008
GDP in current prices - in mil €
2009
2010
Real growth rate
Source: Central Bank of Monetenegro
Budget According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, budget revenue and state funds amounted to €1,369.16 million in 2010. The primarly revenue ammounted to €1,138.62 decreasing by 2.25 % in comparision with its planned value. In the current revenue structure, during the observed period , tax based revenue represented the main share, totaling €1,055.56 million, whilst non-tax based revenue amounted to €83.07 million. In the structure of tax based revenue, taxes totaled €675.80 million, and contributions totaled €379.76 million. In the structure of non- tax based revenue, duties totaled €20.54 million, fees totaled €27.43 million, receipts from the repayment of loans totaled €3.62 million, and other revenue fees totaled €31.48 million. Graphic 2. Budget revenue and State Funds structure 2.6% 0.3% 2.5% 1.9%
Taxes Contributions
32.1%
Duties Fees
Industrial Production Industrial production in December 2010 recorded a growth of 56 % in comparison with the average level of 2009. Consequently, during the period January-December 2010, an increase of 17.5 % was recorded when compared with the same period previous year. During the observed period, the electricity, gas and water sectors recorded an increase of 144.6 % in comparison with average level of 2009. The mining and quarrying industries increased by 26.6 %, and the manufacturing industry sector recorded an increase of 10.4 %.
10.0%
Other revenues 60.5%
Receipts from the repayment of loans
Source: The Ministry of Finance
Inflation Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in December 2010, recorded a rise of 1.1% in comparison with average level of 2009. When observing the average CPI structure for respective goods and services during the 2010,
and in comparison with the average level recorded in previous year, there were certain variations, particulary in transport services which recorded a growth of 10.7 % and also in expenditure on rent payments which was 7 % lower. Graphic 3. CPI-monthly growth rate Dec-10
1.2 Nov-10 Oct-10
1.0 0.8 Apr-10
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Mart-10
May-10 Aug-10 Sept-10
Dec-09 July-10 Jan-10 Feb-10
Jun-10
-0.2
Source: Monstat
Employment and Wages According to data provided by the Employment Agency of Montenegro, the unemployment level recorded at the end of December was 32,026 (of which 14,358 were women), thus showing an unemployment level of 12.13%. Since the beginning of the year, it has been recorded that there are 18,893 newly employed persons and that 14,596 working permits, for non-resident workers, have been issued. The average salary, without taxes and contributions, was €480 in November 2010. This represents a rise of 3% in comparison with the average salary recorded in 2010. Average salaries, without taxes and contributions, ranged from €104, recorded in the fishery sector, to €956, recorded in the financial mediation sector. Source: Monstat, The Employment Agency of Montenegro