Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook REAL SECTOR
GDP and basic sectors
According to last available data, the Montenegrin GDP in the first quarter of 2013 amounted to €675,3 million, thus recording real growth rate of 4.3% in relation to the same period last year. This growth rate is one of the highest recorded within the region (Serbia- 2.1%, Macedonia 2.9, Croatia-1.5), and above the EU level (-1.2). Industrial production: recorded a rise of 9.1 % during the period JanuaryMay 2013 in comparison with the same period last year, due to a rise of electricity production. Decreases in industrial output were recorded in the manufacturing sector (-28.3%) and mining and quarrying sector (-4.3%). Tourism: during April 2013, 32 750 tourists, of which 85% were foreigners, visited Montenegro, and 127 826 nights were recorded (of which 84% were foreigners). Budva along with Herceg Novi and Bar were the most visited cities.
In May 2013, the gross average salary was €728; the average salary without taxes and contributions was €480. The highest salaries without taxes and contributions, were recorded in the finance and insurance sector (€865), and salaries within the electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply (€790) sector followed. The lowest salaries were recorded in the trade sector (€325) and administrative and support activities sector (365€). Average salary without taxes and contributions May 2012 - May 2013 May- 13 Apr- 13 Mart -13 Feb- 13 Jan- 13 Dec- 12 Nov- 12 Oct- 12 Sept -12 Aug- 12 July -12 Jun- 12 May- 12
EUR 480 EUR 477 EUR 476 EUR 485 EUR 490 EUR 497 EUR 478 EUR 480 EUR 483 EUR 480 EUR 480 EUR 484 EUR 487 465
470
475
480
485
490
495
500
Average salary without taxes and contributions May 2012 - May 2013 30,5
2,1
0,7
3,1
Consumer prices recorded a monthly growth of 2.6% in May 2013. The average inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), during the period January-May 2013 was recorded at a level of 3.4%. The most significant price increases during that period were recorded in food and non alcoholic beverages (5.8%) and rentals (5.2%).
Employment and Wages
The data from the Employment Agency of Montenegro shows that at the very end of June 2013, the unemployment rate was at a level of 14.2%.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
During January- May 2013, net FDI inflow amounted to €112.1 million, 5.5% below last years period. • FDI inflow: € 153.1 million, mostly in the form of sale of real estate (€226.2 million) and investments into real estate (77.1€). • FDI outflow: € 41 million (recorded a fall of 25.8% in comparison with last years period) mostly in the form of withdrawal of non-residents’ investments in Montenegro (€34.1 million) FDI inflow structure (in million EUR) during the period January- May 2013 44,6
50,4
0,2 63,4
Construction: during first quarter of 2013, the total value of finished construction works was €45 million, while anticipated new building work projects are expected to total of €11.5 million, triple more than last years average.
Inflation
Public debt at the end of May 2013 amounted to € 1.767,milllion thus reaching half of the estimated GDP. Internal debt amounted to €436,0 million, while external debt amounted to €1.332,50 million.
4,1
Real estate Taxes
ContributionD
Other revenues
utiesF
ees
Loans repayment revenues
PUBLIC FINANCE Budget
During May 2013, source revenues of the Budget of Montenegro and state funds amounted to €93.9 million (2.7% of the estimated GDP), thus being 2.6% lower than planned. On the other hand, consolidated budget expenditures amounted to €95.9 million (2.7% of GDP), and being 7.8% higher than planned. This resulted in a Budget deficit of €2 million during May, while from begining of the year it amounted to € 78.6 million.
0,9
Withdrawal of the capital
Companies and banks
Intercompany debt
External trade
Total exports during the period January-May 2013 totaled €165.5 million, thus showing a growth of 9.9% in comparison with last years period, while imports totaled €476.3 million, thus showing a fall of 5.6%. The export-import ratio was 24.4%. Montenegro is the most import dependent country along with Serbia, China and Greece, and most export dependent country along with Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia. ■ (Sources: The Central Bank of Montenegro, Monstat, Ministry of finance of Montenegro, Employment Agency of Montenegro)
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