April 2011
Macroeconomic Outlook GDP According to estimations made by IMF for 2011, the Montenegrin GDP is expected to record a level of growth rate of 4.5%, which is predicted to be the higest GDP growth rate in the region, and higher, even, than in other EU countries. According to predictions by the same institution, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in Albania, while in Serbia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Hercegovina it is expected to be at a level of 3%. Regarding projections at an EU level, according to Eurostat statistics, the GDP growth rate in the EU is expected to be 1.7%. Source: Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Industrial Production Industrial production recorded a growth of 5 % during the period January-February 2011 in comparison with the same period last year. During the observed period, only the electricity, gas and water sectors recorded decreases of 9.3%. The mining and quarrying industries, along with the manufacturing industry sector recorded increases (16.1% and 26.5% respectively). Source: Monstat
Budget According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, in February 2011, primary budget revenue amounted to €72.7 million and budget expenditure during the observed period amounted to €93.2 million, thus showing a budget deficit of €20.5 million. Budget revenue decreased by 8.1 % in comparison with its planned value, while budget expenditure increased by 8.9%.
Business Environment Macroeconomic Outlook Capital Market Banking Sector Privatization and Investments Economic Freedom Business News In the Spotlight Coming up... Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) According to the preliminary data from the Montenegrin Investment Promotion Agency, total FDI inflow in the first quarter of 2011 amounted to 129 million euro. That shows that FDI inflow are at about the same level as in the first quarter of 2010.
Graphic 1. Budget revenue and State Funds structure 1.6%
1.6% 2.0% 0.3% Taxes
32.3%
Contributions Duties
During the observed period, in the budget revenue structure, tax based revenue represented the main share, totaling €68.7 million; however, non-tax based revenue amounted to €4.0 million. In the structure of tax based revenue, taxes amounted to €45.24 million, and contributions amounted to €23.49 million. Budget expenditure recorded growth mainly due to increased spending on rights in the areas of pensions and disability insurance. In the budget expenditure structure, spending for gross earnings represented the main share, totaling €30.3 million. This was followed by spending for pensions which amounted to €29.4 million and transfers to institutions which amounted to €6 million. Source: The Ministry of Finance
Inflation Annual inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in January-February 2011, was at level of 1.5%, while monthly rate recorded an increase of 1.0% . Observing the inflation in February 2010, and comparing with average level last year, rise was mostly due to price increases of certain products/services, particulary alchoholic beverages and tobacco and health care which recorded growth figures of of 10.1% and 9.4%, respectively.
Fees Other revenues Receipts from the repayment of loans
62.2%
Graphic 2. CPI-monthly growth rate 01 Dec-10, 1.1 01
Feb-11, 1.0
Nov-10, 1.0
01 Apr-10, 0.6 01 Mart-10, 0.5 00
Oct-10, 0.8 Aug-10, 0.4
Jan-11, 0.7
Sept-10, 0.5
May-10, 0.5 July-10, 0.3
00 Jun-10, 0.1
00 Feb-10, 0.1 00
Source: Monstat
Source: Monstat, The Employment Agency of Montenegro
37.5 899
834
666 421
21.1
325
441
386 10.0
8.4
505 9.1
444 9.1
496 375 8.8
2.4
6.5
Net salary by sectors-January 2011
Education
Health and social work
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0
Other community, social & personal service activities
Public administration and social insurance
Financial activities
Real estate activities, renting
Hotels and restaurants
Transport, storage and communications
Construction
Manufacturing
-2.8 Electricity supply
Fishing
215 -7.3
640 10.7
16.5 539
-4.5
Wholesale and retail trade, repair
704 13.2
Mining and quarrying
518 10.0
Total
According to data provided by the Employment Agency of Montenegro, the unemployment level recorded at the end of March was 32,949 (of which 14,853 were women). Unemployment was recorded at a level of 12.48% during this period, thus being at almost the same level this year as it was last year (12.63%). In February 2011, the gross average salary amounted to €754, whilst the average salary without taxes and contributions amounted to €506. Observed by activity sector, average salaries without taxes and contributions in February were the lowest in the fishery sector (€293), while the highest salaries were recorded in the financial mediation sector (€894). In January-February 2011, average salary without taxes and contributions showed a rise of 9.4% in comparison with the same period last year.
Graphic 3. Net salary by sectors in February 2011
Agriculture, forestry and water supply
Employment and Wages
Growth rate (January 2011/January 2010)
5