November 2011
Business Environment Macroeconomic Outlook Capital Market Banking Sector Privatization and Investments Economic Freedom Business News In the Spotlight Coming up...
Macroeconomic Outlook GDP According to estimates made by the Ministry of Finance, the Montenegrin GDP is expected to record a growth rate of 3.5% over the next two years. GDP growth rate for the current year is projected to be 2.5%. The predicted valye until 2013, given by the Ministery of Finance and is presented in the table belowe. Table 2. Projections made by Mnistry of Finance Estimations/Projections GDP (in millions of €) GDP per capita GDP real growth (u%)
2011 3192.0 5069.9 2.5
2012 3386.0 5378.0 3.5
2013 3582.0 5689.3 3.5
Industrial Production
Employment and Wages
Industrial production recorded a fall of 6.2 % during the period January-September 2011 in comparison with the same period last year, due to a decrease of 27.8% in the energy, gas and water sectors. The mining and quarrying industries, along with the manufacturing industry sector recorded increases of 12.7 % and 9.8% respectively.
According to data provided by the Employment Agency of Montenegro, the total number of the unemployed persons recorded at the end of October was 30,062 (13,998 of which were women), while the unemployment rate was recorded at a level of 11.39%.
Graphic 1. GDP GDP (EURO million)
Budget According estimates made by the Central Bank of Montenegro in August 2011, current budget revenue amounted to €112.5 million which was 0.6% higher than predicted. Within the budget revenue structure, taxes account for the main share and represented 67.7%, followed by contributions (26.0%), fees (2.7%), other revenue (1.7%), duties (1.4%), and revenue from loan repayments (0.5%). Consolidated budget expenditure (total revenue less debt repayments) in the observed period amounted to €93.8 million (2.9% of GDP), thus showing a decrease of 6.0% comparing to the August last year. This occurred as a result of lower expenditure in the areas of pensions and disability insurance (4.1%). In August 2011, the Montenegrin budget ran a deficit of €18.6 million or 0.6% of GDP, whereas the deficit during the first eight months of the current year amounted to €42.6 million or 1.3% of GDP.
Inflation The monthly inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in September 2011 was at level of -0.1%. Observing inflation in January-September period 2011 and comparing it with the average level last year, the increase was mainly due to price increases in certain products/services, particulary alchoholic beverages and tobacco, and health care which recorded growth figures of 16.7% and 12.9% respectively. According to macroeconomic date in the region the inflation rate (CPI) in August 2011 was at level of 0.0 in Serbia, -0.1 in Bosnia and Hercegovina, Croatia and Macedonia, while in Albania and Montenegro was a little bit higher (0.3 and 0.7 respectively).
In September 2011 the gross average salary amounted to €712, whilst the average salary without taxes and contributions amounted to €477. During the period January-September 2011, the average salary, without taxes and contributions, showed a rise of 8.8% in comparison with the same period last year. Observed, in August, on the basis of sector averages, without taxes and contributions, the lowest salaries were recorded in the fishery sector (€152), and the highest salaries were recorded in the financial mediation sector (€821).
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) According to preliminary data from the Central Bank of Montenegro, during the period January-August 2011, FDI inflow amounted to €313.4 million, while FDI outflow was €71.6 million. This shows a net FDI inflow of €241.8 million which represents a decrease of 38.5% in comparison with the same period in 2010, as a result of unfavourable developments in the global market and as a result of debt crises in EU countries). Observing the FDI inflow structure, the largest influx was made on the basis of investment in local companies and banks which totaled €125,0 million. Inflow in the form of intercompany debt was recorded as €66.6 million. The sale of real estate amounted to €109.1 million, while inflow resulting from the withdrawal of capital invested abroad by residents amounted to €12.8 million. Regarding the FDI outflow structure, the largest outflow was seen in the withdrawal of foreign capital from local banks and companies. This totaled €45.9 million, whereas residents` investments abroad totaled €25.7 million.
3% 3% -6% 7% 11% 9% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1%
2011** 2010* 2009* 2008* 2007* 2006* 2005* 2004* 2003* 2002* 2001* 2000*
3275 3104 2981 3085,6 2680,46 2149 1815 1669,8 1510,1 1360,4 1295,1 1065,7
0
1000
2000
GDP (real growth rate)
3000
4000
GDP (I-XII)
* MONSTAT ** Estimates made by Ministry of Finance, September 2011
Graphic 2. Inflation (CPI Index) CPI-monthly growth rate (base Ø2010) 04 03 Mar-11; 2,0
02 01
Feb-11; 1,0 Oct-10; 0,2 Dec-10; 0,1
00 Sept-10; 0,1 Nov-10; 0,2 Jan-11; 0,3 -01
Aug-11; 0,7 May-11; -0,1 July-11; -0,3 Apr-11; 0,0 Sept-11; -0,1 Jun-11; -0,5
-02 -03 -04
* MONSTAT
Graphic 3. Average salary without taxes and contributions Sept-11 Aug-11 July-11 Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mart-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sept-10 Aug-10
EUR 477 EUR 475 EUR 476 EUR 475 EUR 479 EUR 473 EUR 484 EUR 506 EUR 518 EUR 515 EUR 480 EUR 477 EUR 481 EUR 504 450
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
* MONSTAT
5