CEIS Petroleum Update July 2011 by Caribbean Energy Information System

Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS) July 2011 Safer Design of Nuclear Reactor Figure1. Modular Pebble Bed Nuclear Reactor What is a Pebble Bed Reactor?

 360,000 pebbles in core  About 3,000 pebbles handled in FHS every day  About 350 pebbles discarded daily  One pebble discharged every 30 seconds  Average pebble cycles through core 15 times fuel-handling most intensive part of plant. Source: http://web.mit.edu/ pebble-bed

Rising sea levels and the attendant loss of coastal livelihoods; warmer global temperatures and the associated increase in diseases, such as dengue; as well as more extreme weather events, such as droughts, hurricanes and in recent time tsunamis - demand a low-carbon future for the Caribbean. These realities coupled with our dependence on imported oil, depleting world oil reserves, speculations on demand and supplies (resulting in fluctuating oil prices) have brought to bear the search for alternative energy sources not just to deal with climate change issues, but to address issues regarding the region’s energy security. Although there is an abundance of renewable energy resources such as wind and solar and to some extent hydro, one controversial alternative energy source being considered by some Caribbean nations is Nuclear Energy.

Figure II. Single reactor unit arrangement of the Pebble Bed Modular Design PBMR design using the gas turbine or Brayton Thermodynamic cycle. Source: https://netfiles.uiuc.edu

CONTACT US What is Nuclear Energy? Nuclear energy was first developed in the 1940s, during World War II when research was focused on producing bombs by splitting the atoms of either uranium or plutonium. This type of nuclear energy is called nuclear fission. This is regarded as almost an infinite continued on page 2/

CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE

Caribbean Energy Information System Scientific Research Council Hope Gardens, Kingston 6, Jamaica 1-876-927-1779 (Telephone) 1-876-977-1840 (Fax) ceis@src-jamaica.org www.ceis-caribenergy.org

is a monthly Bulletin which highlights petroleum issues affecting or relevant to the Caribbean, international developments that may affect the region’s way of life and movements in oil prices and retail prices for fuel regionally.

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : July 2011

A Nuclear TSUNAMI – Future for the Caribbean continued from page 1/

renewable energy resource, reaching a temperature of up to 18 million degrees. The splitting of one atom creates a chain reaction which produces a lot of heat, which can be used in a nuclear power station to convert water to steam that, in turn, drives a turbine which produces electricity. Containing such a temperature on earth is a challenging task that so far has not been mastered. The first commercial nuclear power plant began operation in the 1950s primarily for electricity generation and to date there are approximately 440 commercial nuclear reactors operating in 30 countries, 250 research reactors in over 56 countries worldwide and approximately180 reactors powering 140 ships and submarines. See Commercial Nuclear Reactors Worldwide Table (page 3). History of Nuclear in the Caribbean The idea of nuclear energy use in the Caribbean came to the forefront of the minds of Caribbean nations as early as in 1976 when Cuba signed an agreement with the former Soviet Union for the construction of two 440 megawatts nuclear reactors. The expectation was that the reactors would be able to satisfy approximately 30% of Cuba’s electricity demand thereby reducing Cuba’s dependence on oil. Construction of the first

Petroleum News & Happenings Energy experts say Gov't must revisit policy to unburden JPS customers>> 29/7/2011 No immediate improvements guaranteed from Korean stake in JPS>> 27/7/2011 TAQA makes J$650m on JPS, Caribbean assets sale>> 15/7/2011 Gold rises, oil falls >> 15/7/2011 Politicos clash over oil exploration contract >> 15/7/2011 Oil giant Conoco Phillips to split into 2 companies>> 15/7/2011

reactor began in 1983 in the south central province of Cienfuegos, near Juragua. However, with the dismantling of the Soviet Union and with pressures from the United States government which had concerns about the safety of the reactors (due to model & design) work was halted on the project. With no fuel provided to start the plants and lack of funding, the entire program was scrapped by Fidel Castro in the mid nineteen nineties. Currently, the only operational nuclear reactor in the Caribbean can be found in Jamaica at the International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences (ICENS) located at the UWI - Mona Campus. ICENS operates a small nuclear research reactor (Canadian-made SLOWPOKE 2), with a maximum operating flux of 1 x 10 neutrons cm-2 s-1 (20kw). The flux is remarkably stable. The reactor was installed in March 1983 with a lifetime core having an expected lifespan of approximately 50 years. This reactor has been used mainly for Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) in environmental, health, agriculture and geo-chemistry research. The reactor at UWI-Mona is a negative temperature coefficient reactor which means that it has a built in or inherent safety feature which shuts down the reactor if the operating temperature exceeds 80oF. The system generates no waste and it is expected that at the end of its lifespan the core will be removed and transported back to the manufacturer either for cleaning and reuse of the fuel waste. Realities of Nuclear Energy - What it has done and what it can do. Nuclear power does not lead to acid rain nor does it produce greenhouse gases that cause climate change. The controlled use of nuclear energy has made everyday contributions to mankind's benefit; without it, there would be no early detection and treatments for cancer, microsurgical successes, microwaving of food, cellular phones, DVDs, nanofibers, etc. With the Caribbean facing the serious dilemma of high energy costs, low productivity and more, many believe that a Nuclear Tsunami can shift our energy, Foreign Direct Investment - FDI and prosperity paradigm. Picture this scenario, new careers, our scientists interned to power firms in the US, Japan or China; heavy metals industry; low electricity costs resulting in the ramping up of exports and breaking into the large supply chain of components and spare parts for cars, reduction in carbon emissions allowing us to apply for carbon credits, the fear of increasing oil prices diminishing, etc. The transformative force of nuclear energy unlike oil, could be a gateway to know-how, new industries, jobs and a success paradigm for the Caribbean. On the other hand the nuclear power remains one of the most controversial of human inventions. Among other things, there are prevailing concerns over how to dispose of the waste, which remains dangerously radioactive (gives off harmful radiation or particles) for thousands of years, posing a deadly threat to human health. Remaining in the minds of many is the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986 and in recent times (March 2011) the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan which was triggered by a continued on page 3/

LNG contract going back to tender>> 14/7/2011 US fuel mandate may bump JBG's ethanol earnings next year>> 6/7/2011

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Commercial Nuclear Reactors Worldwide NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2010 billion kWh %e 6.7 5.9

A Nuclear TSUNAMI – Future for the Caribbean continued from page 2/

9.0 magnitude earthquake. The other side to the scenario highlighted earlier would be a catastrophic disaster similar to Chernobyl or Fukushima occurring in one of the Caribbean countries thereby wiping out the livelihood and lives of the Caribbean people. Conclusion and Reality Check In conclusion, the reality is that the Caribbean is blessed with a myriad of natural resources which includes renewable resources that are highly untapped. These resources if fully exploited can reap significant benefits. That said, we must not rule out the possibility of nuclear energy forming part of the region’s energy mix and being a viable option for the Caribbean. However, this will not happen in the short-term and this will not be easy. It, will take the finest scientific minds in our community to tackle the various implications: where, how long and how much are all questions that need to be resolved. In addition, although current research findings are indicating that nuclear energy is a safe and sufficient energy source that should be used more, the Caribbean does not have the necessary physical, technical, regulatory and legislative frameworks/infrastructures in place to deal with this technology. Such infrastructures if we start now, may not be in place until the next 10 - 15 years. By then, we would possibly have had more information about the current prototypes that uses newer/safer technologies and are being commissioned in countries such as Europe and the United States. Possibly by then, the cost of the technology would have decreased and issues concerning safety would have been addressed. Finally, we must ensure that the correct mix of energy resources are identified to create a sustainable and secure energy future for the Caribbean.

COUNTRY Argentina Armenia Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada China Czech Republic Finland France Germany Hungary India Japan Korea RO (South) Mexico Netherlands Pakistan Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Ukraine United Kingdom USA WORLD

REACTORS OPERABLE 1 Aug 2011 No. 2

MWe net 935

2.3 45.7 13.9 14.2 85.5 71.0 26.4

39.4 51.2 3.1 33.1 15.1 1.8 33.2

1 7 2 2 18 14 6

376 5943 1901 1906 12679 11271 3722

21.9 410.1 133.0 14.7 20.5 280.3 141.9

28.4 74.1 28.4 42.1 2.9 29.2 32.2

4 58 17 4 20 51 21

2741 63130 20339 1880 4385 44642 18785

5.6 3.75 2.6 10.7 159.4 13.5 5.4 12.9 59.3 55.7 25.3 39.9 83.95 56.9

3.6 3.4 2.6 19.5 17.1 51.8 37.3 5.2 20.1 38.1 38.0 19.3 48.1 15.7

2 1 3 2 32 4 1 2 8 10 5 6 15 18

1600 485 725 1310 23084 1816 696 1800 7448 9399 3252 4927 13168 10745

807.1 2630

19.6 13.8

104 440

101421 376,511

Source: http://www.world-nuclear.org

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : July 2011

REGULAR UNLEADED GASOLINE AVERAGE PRICES AT THE PUMP January - July 2011 With crude oil prices remaining above US$100/BBL during July, retail prices for refined petroleum products remained relatively high in comparison to prices seen at the beginning of the year when crude oil prices were approximately US$90/BBL. Of the sixteen countries reviewed at the end of July, retail prices for regular unleaded gasoline in four Caribbean countries had shown increases when compared to the previous month while eight countries showed slight declines and the other four remaining relatively stable.

Table 2: Regular Unleaded Gasoline Average Retail Price (US$/Litre) 2011 MAR APR MAY JUN

COUNTRIES

JAN

FEB

JUL

AVG

ANTIGUA/ BARBUDA

1.00

1.07

1.15

1.25

1.33

1.30

1.16

BAHAMAS [91 OCT]

1.24

1.25

1.30

1.46

1.47

1.45

1.38

BARBADOS

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.59

1.54

BELIZE [87 OCT]

1.33

1.34

1.48

1.50

1.54

1.51

1.49

1.46

B.V.I [87 OCT]

1.12

1.13

1.20

1.26

1.27

1.25

1.21

DOMINICA

1.01

1.05

1.06

1.11

1.21

1.24

1.22

1.13

GRENADA (95 OCT)

1.05

1.06

1.17

1.23

1.29

1.32

1.29

1.20

GUYANA

0.99

1.06

1.08

1.12

1.15

1.07

JAMAICA 87 Octane[E10]

1.17

1.18

1.25

1.28

1.29

1.31

1.25

MONTSERRAT

1.13

1.14

1.18

1.27

1.38

1.42

1.35

1.27

ST. KITTS/ NEVIS

1.04

1.07

1.20

1.13

1.14

1.23

1.27

1.15

ST. LUCIA

1.14

1.16

1.22

1.27

1.28

1.21

ST. VINCENT/GRENADINES

0.99

0.98

1.00

1.06

1.10

1.05

SURINAME [95 OCT]

1.21

1.32

1.34

1.47

1.55

1.51

1.48

1.41

TRINIDAD/ TOBAGO [92 OCT]

0.42

TURKS/ CAICOS

1.36

1.42

1.45

1.55

1.61

1.45

NOTE: *US Gallon = 3.785 L *Imperial Gallon = 4.546 L *As at November 1, 2009 MTBE was phased out from all gasoline blends in Jamaica and replaced with 10% Ethanol.

CHART 1

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International oil prices over the period May to June 2011, remained above the US$100/BBL mark with the highest price seen in the first week of May (US$117). The highest weekly price seen in July for the product was US$114.59/BBL - reflected at the end of the 5th week. This price was approximately 15% below the price seen at the end of the same period during the record oil price year of 2008. The average monthly prices seen for each month (May, Jun & Jul) were all reflecting approximately US$111/BBL. With prices remaining above the US$100 mark, productivity in the Caribbean is on the decline as the already fragile economies are faced with high energy cost and the harsh ongoing impact of the global recession.ď&#x201A;Ą

US$/BBL

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