CEIS Petroleum Update November 2011

Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS) November 2011 your daily diet. The fuel used for the Horse and Buggy and the Bicycles can be considered renewable. However, in today’s society, fuel to power the more favored modes of transportation are largely fossil based which as we all know comes at a very high cost (price, impact on the environment and impact on the economy).

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Transportation Energy Costs Overtaking All Others!!

Gone are the days when the primary means of transportation were the Horse and Buggy, Bicycles, Boats and Ships. The change of eras (Industrial to Technological) has resulted in changes in the way in which human beings operate. One of these changes includes the way in which we traffic our people, goods and services to meet the changing demands of the Global World. In recent times evidence has shown that the world has become fast-paced, the galloping is now being done by the large mechanical engines in the Cars, SUVs, Airplanes, and Large Ships that are used everyday as the primary means of transportation inland and across the seas. To be without a car or to not have access to one of these modes of transport would be like To access taking water out of CEIS website

CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE

It is true that Caribbean region has a significantly smaller population when compared to Countries such as the United States or England however, we are still faced with the crisis of having to fuel our transportation sector and traffic our resources in a very competitive environment. The goal of each Government within the Caribbean is to provide a modern safe, reliable and sustainable transport system for the movement of people and goods. With this goal in mind, many Caribbean countries have sought to develop their road infrastructures and public transportation networks. While these infrastructure developments are being undertaken, there are also evident increases in the population sizes of these countries leading to greater demands on the already fragile transport systems in these countries and further increasing the demand for fuel and foreign exchange.

Although the Caribbean Governments have made strides in developing their public transportation infrastructures, the demands on transportation is moving at a pace that is greater than they can satisfy. There are still no reliable large public trains/subways or under water transportation continued on page 2/

CONTACT US Caribbean Energy Information System Scientific Research Council Hope Gardens, Kingston 6, Jamaica 1-876-927-1779 (Telephone) 1-876-977-1840 (Fax) ceis@src-jamaica.org www.ceis-caribenergy.org

is a monthly Bulletin which highlights petroleum issues affecting or relevant to the Caribbean, international developments that may affect the region’s way of life and movements in oil prices and retail prices for fuel regionally.

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : November 2011 larger contributor being land transport.

jects include introduction of 10% ethanol in all gasoline blends, development and expansion of highways/toll roads, establishment of pilot projects geared towards the use of bio-diesel from Castor beans and Jatropha, increase of vehicle tariffs at some ports for SUVs, taxing of fuel with the aim of using funds for road maintenance, imports of flexi-fuel vehicles and improvement in traffic management programs in major towns and parishes.

This increase in land transport Transportation Energy Costs Overtaking energy use has All Others!! continued from page 1/ resulted from the increase in imsystems in the Caribbean countries that ports of private domestic and commercould alleviate our dependency on cial vehicles. In addition, the existing small private domestic vehicles for poor road infrastructures has lead to inland transport. This has resulted in an high levels of traffic congestions increase in the imports of private vehi- thereby creating increased use of fuels However, the question still remaining cles from countries such as Japan, the (Gasoline & Diesel) and increase in the is what more can Caribbean nations do United States, Europe, Korea, China level of pollution to the environment. about the high cost of energy in the and Singapore to satisfy the local de- Surveys have shown that most of the transportation sector? The answer to mands for inland transportation. energy efficiency and conservation this question is three fold (1) Improve projects in the region have been geared the existing systems; (2) shift the deWith increases in the number of vehi- towards the electricity sector and little mand for transportation to more efficles imported, the demand for fuel has effort has been placed on reducing en- cient modes; and (3) avoid nonalso increased along with the level of ergy cost in the transport sector. Some essential transport. pollution, traffic congestion and cost of countries however have taken steps to road maintenance. A look at the fuel undertake national projects that are Improving existing systems requires imports statistics for 2009 for sixteen geared towards reducing transport en- first of all the altering of lifestyles by (16) Caribbean countries indicated that ergy consumption. Some of the pro- Caribbean people in regards to the effithe transportation sector is now the continued on page 3/ highest energy consuming sector in the Table 1 - Energy Consumption By Sector 2009 (16 Countries) Caribbean, accounting for approximately 38% of the region’s petroleum SECTORS 000s of Barrels of Oil % of Total consumption. In comparison to the electricity sector which previously was AGRICULTURE 1,994 1.93 the highest consuming sector, transporCOMMERCIAL 3,568 3.45 tation is accounting for approximately 13% more energy consumption per TRANSPORTATION 39,605 38.34 annum - See Table 1.

What are the causes for the increase in transport energy use?

The increase in transportation energy use is largely attributable to the influx of used cars that in recent times are being imported in the Caribbean and the increase in shipment of goods coming through the ports and by air. Some households in urban areas in many of the Caribbean countries own two or more vehicles and many countries are importing more now than in previous years. Indications are that the two largest contributors to the transport energy costs are air and land transport with the

CEMENT

5,326

5.16

GOVERN-MENT

129

0.12

RESIDENTIAL

9,264

8.97

ELECTRIC UTILITY

26,170

25.33

TOURISM

1,146

1.11

OIL REFINERY

13,497

13.07

OTHER MFG

347

0.34

CONSTRUCTION

33

0.03

SUGAR MFG

129

0.12

OTHER

2,097

2.03

TOTALS

103,304

Source: Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS)

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Caribbean Petroleum Update : November 2011 | Call: 1-876-927-1779 the vehicles rather the engine rating alone.

Governments must lead by example in respect of energy Transportation Energy Costs Overtaking efficiency in the All Others!! continued from page 2/ transport sector.

In this light, Policy cient use of transportation. Relatively considerations could include: large numbers of low-efficiency SUVs are a status symbol in the Caribbean  launching public awareness and educountries. These SUV’s have very low cation programmes to ensure that the average vehicular occupancy. public makes informed decisions regarding the purchase and operations To improve the efficiency of the transof motor vehicles. port sector and reduce the cost of trans-  creating awareness in eco-driving, port the new status symbol would have use of improved lubricants, setting to be shifted to more efficient modes of consumption standards for fuel and transport. Import tariff structures that lubricants, setting speed limits and favors engines less than 2000cc as well improve inspection and maintenance as hybrid vehicles, diesel-engine vehiof vehicles. cles and ultimately, flexi-vehicles that  focusing on comprehensive road decan run on essentially 100 per cent velopment and maintenance proethanol or natural gas should be engrammes. couraged.  improving the efficiency of the public transport systems.

The use of high-powered vehicles  improving traffic management and should also be discouraged within the considering introduction of congestransport sector and appropriate fiscal tion pricing (in urban areas) as well incentives and measures to discourage as flexi working hours and alternate the import of inefficient vehicles work week. should be put in place. Taxes should be directly related to the fuel efficiency of In moving forward, we must avoid the use of non-essential transport by evaluPetroleum News & Happenings ating options such Oil price ends the week below US$98 a barrel >>20/11/2011 as the use of cargo trains inland for Oil price again flirting with US$100 per barrel >> 16/11/2011 transport of large equipment and Sagres ramps up investment in Jamaican oil exploration >> goods, possible de16/11/2011 velopment of underwater subway Texaco names Jamaican assets on sale to tunnels within the GB Group>> 4/11/2011 OECS to facilitate CURE challenges OUR on JPS meters >> 14/11/2011 ease of travel between islands thereRepsol makes big oil find in Argentina >> 9/11/2011 by reducing reliance on air travel

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which is one of the most costly mode of transportation; greater use of biofuels. In addition, urban areas in which congestion and fuel consumption is higher should be protected against nonessential transport by establishing zones and streets with limited access, developing bicycle routes and zones in capitals such as Kingston and Port of Spain thereby improving reliance on non–motorized transport. The effectiveness of these measures however would be dependent on having a reliable public transport system in place and getting the necessary cooperation from citizens.

In conclusion, it is very evident that if the high energy cost in the transport sector is not tackled the consequences will be more than we can bear. Transportation is vital for community trade, access to tourism markets and social integration of peoples. It also provides necessary linkages between sources of r aw mater ial s, manuf acturi ng/ processing centers and markets. The current high transportation energy cost and inadequate transport infrastructure impacts negatively on the integration process, ability to expand or diversify trade, competitiveness of firms and integration in the global economy.

Further ill effects could be that this may become a binding constraint on both economic growth and social development, along with increased negative impacts on health and on the environment. In the immediate future, the Caribbean must see more concentrated efforts being placed on curtailing transportation energy cost in order not to be constrained in the viscous cycle of fossil fuels dependence.

Time to liberalise the electricity market >> 1/11/2011 Jamaica should decide on liberalising its electricity market >> 1/11/2011

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : November 2011

REGULAR UNLEADED GASOLINE AVERAGE PRICES AT THE PUMP January - November 2011 Consumers continue to dread going to the pumps as retail prices remained relatively high in comparison to earlier during the year. Of the sixteen countries reviewed at the end of November, retail prices for regular unleaded gasoline in three Caribbean countries had shown increases when compared to the previous month while seven countries showed slight declines and the other six remaining relatively stable.

Table : Regular Unleaded Gasoline Average Retail Price (US$/Litre) 2011 COUNTRIES

JAN FEB

MAR APR

MAY

JUN

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV AVG

ANTIGUA/BARBUDA

1.00

1.00

1.07

1.15

1.25

1.33

1.30

1.30

1.30

1.30

1.23

1.20

BAHAMAS [91 OCT]

1.24

1.25

1.30

1.46

1.47

1.47

1.45

1.43

1.44

1.34

1.37

1.39

BARBADOS

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.59

1.59

1.59

1.59

1.66

1.66

1.60

1.60

1.58

BELIZE [87 OCT]

1.33

1.34

1.48

1.50

1.54

1.51

1.49

1.51

1.44

1.47

1.37

1.45

B.V.I [87 OCT]

1.12

1.13

1.20

1.26

1.26

1.27

1.25

1.22

1.22

1.22

1.22

1.22

DOMINICA

1.01

1.05

1.06

1.11

1.21

1.24

1.22

1.22

1.22

1.17

1.14

1.15

GRENADA (95 OCT)

1.05

1.06

1.17

1.23

1.29

1.32

1.29

1.29

1.31

1.28

1.23

1.23

GUYANA

0.99

0.99

1.06

1.08

1.08

1.12

1.15

1.14

1.14

1.14

1.14

1.09

JAMAICA 87 Octane[E10]

1.17

1.18

1.25

1.28

1.29

1.29

1.31

1.29

1.28

1.25

1.24

1.26

MONTSERRAT

1.13

1.14

1.18

1.27

1.38

1.42

1.35

1.32

1.32

1.27

1.23

1.27

ST. KITTS/NEVIS

1.04

1.07

1.20

1.13

1.14

1.23

1.27

1.28

1.28

1.29

1.29

1.20

ST. LUCIA

1.14

1.14

1.16

1.22

1.27

1.28

1.28

1.27

1.25

1.21

1.21

1.22

ST. VINCENT/GRENADINES

0.99

0.98

1.00

1.06

1.10

1.17

1.24

1.24

1.23

1.22

1.20

1.13

SURINAME [95 OCT]

1.21

1.32

1.34

1.47

1.55

1.51

1.48

1.48

1.45

1.40

1.42

1.42

TRINIDAD/TOBAGO [92 OCT]

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

0.42

TURKS/CAICOS

1.36

1.36

1.42

1.42

1.45

1.55

1.61

1.60

1.60

1.54

1.58

1.50

NOTE: *US Gallon = 3.785 L *Imperial Gallon = 4.546 L *As at November 1, 2009 MTBE was phased out from all gasoline blends in Jamaica and replaced with 10% Ethanol.

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Caribbean Petroleum Update : November 2011 | Call: 1-876-927-1779

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REGULAR UNLEADED GASOLINE AVERAGE PRICES AT THE PUMP January - November 2011 CHART

See prices for other products at www.ceis www.ceis--caribenergy.org .

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Call: 1-876-927-1779 | Caribbean Petroleum Update : November 2011

US$/BBL

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US$/BBL

International Oil prices over the period September to November 2011 were seen below US$100/BBL with the highest price seen in the third week of November (US$99.32/BBL). The lowest price seen in November was in the first week when the price was below US$95/BBL. However, prices appeared to be once again trending upwards compared to prices seen in September and October when the average prices in those months were US$85.42 and US$85.98 per barrel respectively. The average price per barrel at the end of November was approximately 13% higher than the previous months. This increase appeared to be related to rising tensions in the Middle East and issues concerning Iran’s Nuclear enrichment project. Speculations are that prices will continue to rise if these issues are not resolved in the short-term.

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