A Note on Mekong River Management

A Note on Mekong River Management This unpublished précis characterizes the salient features of the Mekong River basin, sheds light on issues from development pressures and resulting vulnerabilities, and underscores that the transboundary environmental challenges posed by international rivers require effective resource cooperation mechanisms.

Olivier Serrat 19/01/2004

1 Introduction The Mekong River (c. 4,180 km long) is the world's twelfth longest river, its eighth largest in terms of annual runoff, and one of its least exploited major waterways in terms of dams and water diversions. From its source on the Tibetan plateau (c. 4,970 meters high), it rises as the Za Qu River in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and flows generally southwards through Yunnan Province in deep gorges and over rapids. Leaving Yunnan Province, it forms the border between Myanmar and the Lao People's Democratic Republic and curves east and south through northwestern Laos before marking part of the border between Thailand and the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

At Khone Falls, a series of rapids (c. 9.7 km long) in southwestern the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), the Mekong River drops 22 m to descend onto the Cambodian plain, where it receives water from the Tonle Sap Lake during the dry season by way of the Tonle Sap River. During the rainy season the floodwaters of the Mekong River reverse the direction of the Tonle Sap River and flow into the Tonle Sap Lake. The Mekong River finally runs into the South China Sea through many distributaries in the vast Mekong delta (c. 65,000 sq. km), which occupies southeastern Cambodia and southern Viet Nam. The Mekong River Basin at a Glance Country

PRC Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam Myanmar

Average Flow from Catchment Area (m3/sec) 2,410a 2,860 5,270 2,560 1,660 300

Share of Total Average Flow (%) 16 18 35 18 11 2

National Population (million)

1,271.1 13.1 5.3 62.9 78.9 51.1

Mekong River Basin Population (million) 5.9 8.7 4.6 22.1 14.0 0.4

GNP ($ billion)

Electricity Consumption (KWh/per head/yr)

Fish (kg/per head/yr)

1,062.9 3.1 1.5 121.6 30.4 —

260a 55 55 900 140 60

— 13 7 15–27b 21–30c —

Note: — = data not available. a Yunnan Province only. b Northeast Thailand only. c Mekong delta in Viet Nam only.

Sources: Asian Development Bank; Mekong River Commission; World Bank.

Issues The Mekong River's watershed (c. 795,000 sq. km) includes six of Asia's richest and poorest nations, all of whom are eager to promote development using the Mekong River basin's water and related resources.1 As a result of decades of war and isolation that ended just a few years ago, these resources are largely undeveloped. And so, the Mekong River represents a last chance—the chance to tap a large, relatively unspoiled river basin's potential without destroying its environmental integrity.

In particular, the Mekong River and its tributaries have a potential hydroelectricity generating capacity of 30,000–58,000 MW. Yet, although plans to construct major hydroelectric dams have been afoot for years, less than 5% of this potential had been exploited as of the late 1990s.

Furthermore, hydropower potential varies greatly among the riparian nations: highland countries 1

The Mekong River basin is home to an extraordinary variety of ecosystem types and enjoys the presence of a wide range of species. Its vegetation, vertebrate fauna, and invertebrates are of local, national, regional, and global significance.

2 such as PRC and Lao PDR possess the greatest share; countries such as Viet Nam and Cambodia, which are located along the slower-moving, lower reaches of the Mekong River, possess comparatively little.

A.

Pressures

The main development pressures come from: • The People's Republic of China. Yunnan Province, at the top of the Mekong River's watershed, is considering a cascade of up to 14 dams. The total installed capacity of these dams would be 7,700 MW, equivalent to 20% of PRC's current energy consumption.

Because of Yunnan Province's remoteness from PRC's more developed areas, Yunnan authorities would in all likelihood export electricity to Thailand. PRC also plans to divert water from the Mekong River into the Yellow River to meet northeast PRC's growing demand for water. In addition, concerns have been raised over intentions to clear rapids and islets and widen a shipping lane in the Mekong River to enable cargo boats to navigate between PRC and Thailand in the dry season.2 • Thailand. Many of the tributaries feeding the Mekong River in Thailand have already been dammed to provide power and irrigation to Thailand's arid eastern provinces. Thailand now proposes to divert water from the Mekong River into the water-scarce Chao Phraya River, which is the main source of water for Thailand's economic heartland.

• Lao PDR. One third of the total flow of the Mekong River originates in Lao PDR. Given that country's abundant rainfall and rugged topography, estimates of Lao PDR's hydropower potential reach 7,000 MW, of which only a fraction is currently exploited. Lao PDR plans to construct up to 17 new dams over the next ten years. Electricity would be sold to Thailand and Viet Nam. Thailand already buys electricity from Lao PDR's Nam Ngum dam and is negotiating to buy more from the proposed Nam Theun II dam.

B.

Vulnerabilities

Not all development proposals will be implemented. Not all are feasible and public outcry against some may stall construction. But, the drive to dam and divert the Mekong River and its tributaries threatens traditional uses of the river, which has for long provided environmental benefits to the Mekong Basin's 55 million population. For instance: • Fisheries. The Mekong River has one of the most abundant fisheries in the world and is probably the world's largest river fishery. The annual catch is an estimated 1.5 million tons, with another 500,000 tons raised in reservoirs and other forms of aquaculture. Not surprisingly, fish provides 40–60% of the animal protein intake of the population of the lower Mekong River basin and contributes even more in much of Cambodia.3 4 But, dams and 2

3

4

This would permit easier routes for commercial navigation. Reportedly, PRC has already cleared its section of the Mekong River to enable big vessels to travel through its waters year-around. The navigation accord that PRC wishes to promote with Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Thailand would allow further travel southward.

More than 1.2 million people living in fishing communities around the Tonle Sap Lake depend almost entirely on fishing for their livelihood.

The Tonle Sap is the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. Its fisheries, together with the flooded forest and agricultural lands of the inundated area, have underpinned human activity since ancient times. ADB's Country Strategy and Program for Cambodia, 2005–2009 targets economic growth for countrywide poverty reduction and, notably, improved access to assets for poverty reduction in the Tonle Sap basin, which covers 40% of Cambodia's total area. ADB's Tonle Sap Basin Strategy sets priorities for assistance in the Tonle Sap basin over the next 5–10 years and marks the introduction of basin-level strategic planning in Cambodia. Its development objectives are to make happen (i) pro-poor sustainable economic growth, (ii) equitable access to assets, and (iii) improved management of natural resources and the environment. The suite of loan and technical assistance projects that will accomplish the strategy is referred to collectively as the Tonle Sap Initiative.

3

•

other built structures threaten fisheries and the Mekong River's extraordinary fish species richness when they interfere with spawning cycles, prevent fish migrations, and alter water quantity and quality. Built structures also reduce the seasonal floods that sustain fish spawning and nursery grounds in floodplains: the flood cycle, keyed to the monsoon rains, is a critical factor in the life cycle of many of the area's aquatic species; even slight changes in peak flood flows imperil the region's fish production and, thereby, its food security.5 Agriculture. Altering the annual flood cycle, reducing the silt load of the water, or diverting the Mekong River's flow could have serious impacts on agriculture. Floodwaters deposit 1–3 cm of silt each year on the lowland floodplains of Cambodia and Viet Nam and sustain these farmed areas.6 In addition, river flows during the dry season control salinity penetration into interior areas of the Mekong delta, which supports almost 15 million Vietnamese and is the granary of Viet Nam. Moreover, aquatic plants, which provide a source of food and income for populations in the lowlands, depend on adequate flows reaching lowland floodplains during the dry season. Flushing of pollution is another essential function of dry season flows.

Resource Cooperation On 5 April 1995, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Viet Nam signed the Agreement on Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, which acknowledges the need for regional action. This led to the evolution of the Mekong Committee into the Mekong River Commission (MRC), in which Myanmar and PRC have observer status.7 However, cooperation has been tempered by the mixed motivations of individual countries. And, compromise is difficult because negotiating powers vary greatly as a function of their location within the Mekong River basin, as well as their wealth: • The People's Republic of China. Based on the size of its economy, PRC has by far the greatest capacity to mobilize funding and technology to assert its claims on the Mekong River. Because its portion of the river runs through sparsely populated territory, a relatively small population in Yunnan Province depends on the river. PRC, therefore, has much to gain and little to lose from dam construction.

• Thailand. Thailand is in an intermediate position. It has the largest in-basin population among the riparian nations, and is therefore vulnerable to developments upstream of the Mekong River, but possesses the economic and human resources to withstand potentially negative changes.

• Lao PDR. Lao PDR, one of the poorest nations in the world, is anxious to develop its hydropower resources to spur economic growth.

• Cambodia and Viet Nam. Cambodia and Viet Nam, on the other hand, are particularly vulnerable because of their downstream location, their relative poverty, and the large 5

6

7

Because of the interdependencies between the fisheries of the Mekong River and those of the Tonle Sap, ADB is planning advisory technical assistance to improve the awareness and understanding of government agencies, stakeholders, and the general public regarding the influence of built structures on the lake's hydrological regime, in terms of the livelihoods of the population that depends on its fisheries and biodiversity, and to suggest actions that need to be taken to that end. Specifically, the technical assistance would (i) prepare a database of existing structural works and their influences, and (ii) develop a strategy and guidelines for planning structural interventions with potentially negative impacts on the ecosystem of, or the livelihoods in, the flooded area of the Tonle Sap Lake.

The assistance is slated for approval in 2005.

The environmental benefits of flooding are not limited to the lowland floodplains of Cambodia and Viet Nam. Throughout the Mekong River basin, flood recession agriculture is practiced to grow vegetables and other crops that are a source of food and cash income for rural households.

MRC's vision is an economically prosperous, socially just, and environmentally sound Mekong River basin. Its mission is to promote and coordinate sustainable management and development of water and related resources for the countries' mutual benefit and the people's wellbeing by implementing strategic programs and activities and providing scientific information and policy advice.

4 number of people who depend directly on the Mekong River and its tributaries for their livelihood.

When countries share boundaries, they are often impacted by each other's actions: this is particularly true in the case of river basins. And so, MRC was established to minimize the conflicts inherent in managing a river that crosses many international borders.8 Nevertheless, its efforts at regional coordination have not been as successful as expected, thus far. Although it collects hydrological data from the basin, it has not done enough to promote debate among the signatories on the cumulative effects of their water developments, or craft a common vision of how water should be shared. It does not help that PRC is not a member of MRC, when it controls the upper reaches of the Mekong River.9,10 PRC is unwilling to join MRC until water-use rules are clarified and it is assured that restrictions on dam building and water diversions will not interfere with its development plans for the upper Mekong River. MRC's water-use rules specify that the watershed nations have neither the right to veto the use nor the unilateral right to use the water of the Mekong River. This implies that dam construction on the Mekong River's mainstream would only proceed by consensus, a system that is not acceptable to PRC. Notwithstanding, the benefits of a regional approach are compelling. Development of a regional electricity transmission grid, for example, would benefit from coordinated action to develop the Mekong River basin's hydropower potential. Elsewhere, a regional growth plan that helps to expand the economies of the lower Mekong River basin and promotes open markets would provide long-term inducements for Thailand and PRC, not forgetting Myanmar, to cooperate.

And, a basin-wide approach to water management would offer clear environmental advantages: it would force the riparian nations to examine more seriously how dams on the upper reaches of the Mekong River can affect flow conditions downstream.

Conclusions The transboundary environmental challenges posed by international rivers require effective resource cooperation mechanisms. A riparian cooperation framework that gives balanced importance to both development and sound management of natural resources and the environment, and gives equal decision-making authority to all riparian nations, would facilitate resource cooperation. MRC comes close to providing such a framework for the Mekong River.

Unfortunately, its effectiveness is hampered by the nonparticipation of the two upper riparian nations. MRC is also subject to economic and political interests.

And so, it must be recognized that managing the Mekong River is more complex than merely setting up a river basin committee. It has geo-economic, geopolitical, and geo-strategic implications. The Mekong River basin is a complex expanse. There are many actors, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, MRC, the 8

MRC is not the only riparian cooperation framework. Others include the Golden Quadrangle, Forum for Comprehensive Development in Indo-China, Mekong Basin Development Program, and ASEAN-Mekong Basin Development Cooperation. Regrettably, however, these other frameworks are uncoordinated and driven primarily by economic and political interests.

9 Without the participation of Myanmar and, most importantly, PRC, the 1995 Agreement on Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin remains incomplete and cannot be a truly effective regionallevel initiative.

10 For instance, MRC's navigation strategy, approved in August 2003, aims to address issues as diverse as regional transport planning and the comparative advantages of waterborne transport, formulation of a new legal framework for Mekong River navigation, safety and environmental protection, improved information and coordination systems, and institutional development. But, it is by necessity specific to regional navigation development in the Lower Mekong basin.

5 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the World Bank, and numerous donor countries; six national governments; and many provincial and local level government organizations. Nongovernment organizations and civil society are increasingly vocal. What is more, the visions of development held by the national governments of the six countries within MRC, which differ from one another, also do not always accord with the development visions of people at the local level. PRC's position as an upper riparian nation whose actions could have profound downstream transboundary implications makes its inclusion into a framework such as MRC a necessity, to begin with.11 PRC also happens to be the region's preeminent economic and political power. At present, however, PRC sees no overriding reason to join MRC, a framework that views the region primarily as a hydrological unit.

Still, the high level of interrelatedness of the region's economy and environment and PRC's growing interest in it provide reasons and hope for better resource cooperation in future.

Likewise, PRC's recognition that development of the Mekong River basin is one of the five important areas for cooperation under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement is another sign of its evolving priorities.12 Bilateral and multilateral actors need to keep abreast of the situation, maintain regular high-level dialogue with PRC to promote resource cooperation in the Mekong River basin, and work actively to promote MRC's endeavors and collaborate with it.

The views expressed in this précis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.

11

As an observer, since 1995, PRC has attended eight meetings of MRC's Joint Committee. In 2002, MRC and PRC agreed to exchange hydrological and other data, specifically for flood flows in the Lancang River, the upper reach of Mekong River within the territory of PRC. The 2002 agreement has been satisfactorily implemented and, as a result, downstream riparian nations now have a better basis for flood preparation and control. Recently, MRC installed 18 telemetry stations as part of its Appropriate Hydrologic Network Improvement Project, including two in PRC at Jinghong and Man An. PRC sees flood control as the major area of interest to the downstream riparian nations and envisages that any expansion of its role in MRC matters would be built through the current agreement for sharing hydrological data.

12 For instance, the signing of the Upper Mekong-Lancang Navigation Agreement between Lao PDR, Myanmar, PRC, and Thailand in 2000 led to an immediate increase in cross-border trade and transport among the signatories and initiation of waterway improvement projects. During MRC 's regional navigation workshop of September 2003, PRC indicated its interest in coordinating closely with MRC member countries on navigation issues.