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GLOBAL CEMENT INDUSTRY. KNOWLEDGE.
DECEMBER 2010
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Middle East & africa cement sector survey
Foreword by Eng. Al Rousan Secretary General Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials | CemWeek 2010 Middle East & Africa Cement Sector Survey
Foreword uring the past five years, the Arab cement industry experienced rapid progress due to the unprecedented growth of the building and construction industries that prevailed in the region. Design capacities of Arab cement plants increased at a substantial rate, jumping from 131million tons of clinker in 2004 to 187 million tons in 2009, for an average annual growth rate of 7.5 percent. Cement design capacities registered 148 million tons in 2004 and rose to 212.7 million tons in 2009 for an average growth rate of 8.5 percent. With this increase of design capacities, actual production of cement plants in Arab countries jumped remarkably, from 108 million tons of clinker in 2004 to 150.8 million tons of clinker in 2009; again, thegrowth rate averaged around 8.5 percent. Actual cement production was 119.8 million tons in 2004 and 187.5 million tons in 2009, representing an average growth rate of 8.8 percent. With the growth of the building and construction industry, whether in terms of infrastructure or housing projects, consumption increased at steep rates; in fact, demand for cement increased from 115.9 million tons in 2004 to 205 million tons in 2009, representing an average growth rate of 12.4 percent. The growth shown in the above numbers continues today through expansions that are currently in development, along with a variety of new projects and greenfield plants. The cement industry adds new capacity each year, and available information at the AUCBM indicates the number of greenfield plants and mills under construction, along with those announced, have a total design capacity of more than 102 million tons of cement. When added to the current capacities, this brings the total to 284 million tons of clinker. This study was initiated in cooperation with CemWeek to examine the implications of present and future growth for the Arab cement industry.
Ahmad Al-RousaN
secretary general
Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials
INTRODUCTION The CW Group’s CemWeek 2010 Africa and Middle East Business Sentiment Survey provides a broad evaluation of emerging trends and themes that have dominated the African and Middle Eastern cement sectors over the recent months, along with those likely to be important in the months ahead. Using quantitative data and qualitative observations, the survey highlights the sentiments and experiences of those knowledgeable individuals working within the African and Middle Eastern cement sectors. It also brings to light changing business strategies, operations, sales and marketing activities, and other attitudes that are having an impact on the cement sector. The CW Group Research / CemWeek survey provides a snapshot of the industry as a whole. Readers may interpret the key findings and determine the significance they hold for their organizations. We are confident readers will find this information enlightening and valuable. All responses to the survey were anonymous in order to protect the confidentiality of the individual respondents. However, on a company level participants hailed from key industry participants, including such large companies as ASEC Cement, Dangote, Heidelberg Cement Africa, Holcim, Lafarge, Pretoria Portland Cement, and Saudi Cement. The survey covered a lot more ground than can be reported in this summary document; there is much additional insight and detail contained in the tabulated responses. The CW Group would be happy to assist you with a custom deep-dive review to help your organization uncover and understand trends and market dynamics in your country or region to help improve your competitive positioning. To further understand the micro-trends and obtain more detail on the answers uncovered in this survey, please contact us at inquiries@cwgrp.com.
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december 2010 www.cemweek.com www.cwgrp.com
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| CemWeek 2010 Middle East & Africa Cement Sector Survey
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survey CONTEXT The cement sector in Africa… Africa is rapidly becoming a cement industry hotspot, with demand for cement expected to continue growing in the mid- to long term. As the world’s second-largest and second most-populous continent, Africa possesses some of the world’s largest mineral reserves. Combined with a large number of emerging industries in need of building materials and an ever-expanding population necessitating housing and infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, and railways), the increase in demand levels is understandable. The economic drivers, which have supported the recent growth seen throughout the region, are expected to continue fuelling the growth in cement consumption at a rate upwards of 12 percent annually. This has left existing and prospective cement suppliers scrambling to increase capacity in many markets, especially in Sub-Sahara. In 2009, cement producers in Africa had a consolidated output of about 140 million tons of cement. This proved insufficient for the demand of the continent, which hovered at 156 millions tons. The remainder of the demand was met by imported cement. In anticipation of continued high demand, efforts have been launched in many countries to build new production facilities. In line with investments coming in for infrastructure and construction projects, the number of investors continues to grow. It is notable that among foreign investors, the Chinese have aggressively entered the African market. They have frequently formed partnerships with local business interests and projects across different industries in areas such as Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania. However, some segments and sub-regions of the African cement industry continue to face challenges, including increased competition both domestically and from abroad. Cement markets in several African nations have been import-dependent. Low-cost producers, such as China, Pakistan, and Turkey continue to aggressively establish themselves as strong competitors. Cement imports from these lowcost producers, sometimes partially subsidized by governments, continue to place pressure on local producers, especially in an economic climate with low shipping rates. When combined with rail and road inefficiencies, many local producers find themselves at what they report to be a distinct disadvantage. This also explains why some trade groups are calling for a tariff reinstatement on imported cement products. …And in the Middle East After reeling from the recent global economic downturn that affected much of the region, signs of a re-emergence of growth are beginning to take root in the Middle Eastern region, especially the Gulf States though a recovery is unlikely to be swift. Notwithstanding the current situation where supply is outstripping demand, the industry is positioned for a recovery thanks in part to regional governments who have indicated a desire to boost spending on construction projects. With a large volume of planned projects throughout the region, there are strong fundamentals in place to fuel growth and cement demand, particularly in the Gulf States. 2
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survey context
However, as in Africa, significant challenges remain for many Middle Eastern nations. In 2009, although most countries in the region produced cement, supply reached about 90 percent of the required volumes. Possible abolition of import duties on cement in certain markets has raised opportunities and concerns. For instance, exporting nations such as Turkey will find an opportunity to increase cement exports to the region, while other countries such as Saudi Arabia, where supply currently exceeds demand, will likely be adversely affected by the move. The region’s cement imports are high compared to other major subregions in the world, and second to the sub-Saharan nations of Africa. Because of the high demand for cement that has prevailed until recently in the Middle East, cement manufacturers and investors are displaying a strong front, expanding existing cement plants and setting up new ones. The region overall is still optimistic about the future of the industry and has charged ahead with adding production capacity that may reach 340 million tons by the end of 2012, up from 254 million tons in 2009. In the next three years, Saudi Arabia alone will add over 20 million tons, while Egypt has a planned expansion of over 10 million tons, and many other countries having announced ambitious expansion efforts. Survey Introduction The CW Group and CemWeek surveyed 168 participants involved in the cement industry in Africa and the Middle East during the second half of 2010. Respondents were asked to reflect on the recent past and to offer insights on the industry for the next year. Specifically, the CemWeek 2010 Africa and Middle East Cement Business Sentiment Survey sought to capture market feedback on participants’ views, including:
■■ Business prospects; ■■ Demand and prices; ■■ Competition; ■■ Environment; ■■ Employment; ■■ Fuels; and ■■ Capital investments As with all surveys, results reflect the views held by the individual respondents. While the number of respondents indicated a good industry cross-section, the results are only representative in terms of gauging industry sentiment and are not predictive of industry performance. Therefore, the reader should keep in mind the limitations of the conclusions drawn from the survey. With that said, the CW Group and CemWeek hope you find the results of the African and Middle Eastern cement sector to be interesting and enlightening. Function and Organizational Level Survey respondents represented a broad cross-section of the cement business throughout the Middle East and Africa. The largest number of respondents by function was involved in sales and marketing (26 percent), engineering and maintenance (19 percent), and production (17 percent). cwgrp.com
| CemWeek 2010 Middle East & Africa Cement Sector Survey
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demographics
DEMOGRAPHICS Participant subgroup information for this survey was based on self-reported demographic information and included job function, organizational level, geographic location, and sector distributions. Function and Organizational Level Survey respondents represented a broad cross-section of the cement business throughout the Middle East and Africa. The largest number of respondents by function was involved in sales and marketing (26 percent), engineering and maintenance (19 percent), and production (17 percent).
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The senior-level professional participation in the survey was strong with 42 percent of the respondents being more senior than manager level, offering further strength to the survey; Managers and team leaders (40 percent), CEOs and general managers (23 percent), and department and regional managers (19 percent) represented the largest number of respondents by job level. Analysts, technicians and engineers also weighed-in (14 percent) as did more junior staff (4 percent). Location Geographically, participants were will distributed and located throughout the survey area. While 24 percent were situated in various Middle Eastern countries, 21 percent hailed from Southern Africa, 14 percent from North Africa, 13 percent from East Africa, and 9 percent from the Arabian Peninsula. Overall, 53 percent of the participants were based in Arab-speaking cement markets supported by the AUCBM.
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| CemWeek 2010 Middle East & Africa Cement Sector Survey
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demographics
Sector The largest share of respondents was part of cement groups (64 percent). Equipment vendors (12 percent), industry analysts and consultants (8 percent), and cement traders (7 percent) accounted for a cumulative total of 91 percent of respondents.
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SURVEY FINDINGS
SURVEY FINDINGS Future Business Prospects Participants were asked to indicate if they thought business prospects would improve, deteriorate, or undergo no change over the next year. The majority (57 percent) was optimistic, indicating a belief that prospects for business over the next twelve months would improve. Another 20 percent saw no-change in business with the final 23 percent suggesting a decrease in business. Seventy-two percent of respondents that foresaw an improvement in the business situation over the next twelve months were from East Africa, Southern Africa, North Africa and the Middle East. Among all of the regions, East Africa has the strongest outlook; 85 percent of respondents believe answering “improvement/ increasing”. Respondents from Central Africa were divided between an optimistic and pessimistic business prospects at 40 percent each, while the remaining 20 percent answered “no change.”
“As cement is mostly imported here in a big way, the logistics will be problematic as road conditions are very bad and no rail services are available; hence, movement of cement will be a big challenge” African Cement Company general manager
Main Issue A number of issues affect the players within the wider region. Among these issues, the biggest concern among respondents is the increased competition from foreign producers adding to over-supply (41 percent of the responses). Regulatory and governmental issues garnered 13 percent of the votes, followed by commercial and pricing concerns at 11 percent. The answer was fairly consistent across the sub-regions, but interesting to note was that in Western and Southern Africa, manufacturing issues ranked high. Generally, the respondents ranked financial and environmental concerns lower.
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SURVEY FINDINGS
Competition The majority (61 percent) of survey respondents reported an increase in competition over the last six months. Region with the highest response in “increase in competition� is the Arabian Peninsula with 86 percent with Central Africa seeing ranking competition the lowest. Respondents believe this trend will continue, with over 76 percent predicting that competition will likely increase over the next twelvemonth period. Respondents from West Africa and other countries in the Middle East however are a bit more optimistic with 9 percent and 4 percent of the respondents saying that the competition will decline, respectively. Environmental Concerns Environmental concerns are globally a top policy consideration facing the cement sector. With the worldwide cement production accounting for approximately 5 percent of all global emissions of carbon dioxide, finding ways to reduce emissions, develop alternative fuel uses, and lessen the environmental impact on local communities is fast becoming an issue for many cement companies.
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SURVEY FINDINGS
When asked to rate the importance of environmental concerns to their firm over the last six months on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing “not an issue” and 5 the “most important issue”, 39 percent of respondents indicated it was somewhat concerning, rating the issue a 3. In total about two-thirds rated it a 3 or lower. The response is a bit contradictory in light of where environmental concerns ranked in terms of the overall biggest issues facing the sector. It may be due to more imminent issues taking precedence in the mind of respondents following the financial crisis and weak demand.
“[The biggest threat is from] more imports being allowed, new capacity coming on stream” West Africa Cement Manufacturer
Over the next 12 months, environmental concerns still appear plant manager reasonably high up on the agenda and, according to 48 percent of participants, will garner a more importance (response of “4” or “5”). Other countries in the “Other Middle East” contributed 41 percent of the respondents who answered “1” for the item “importance of environmental concerns in the next twelve months”. West Africa followed with 24 percent and South and East Africa with 12 percent each. Other countries in the Middle East also have the highest instance of “5”, contributing 32 percent, followed by Southern Africa with 26 percent and Arabian Peninsula and East Africa with 16 percent each.
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SURVEY FINDINGS Cement Prices Consensus among survey participants regarding whether cement prices had changed in the last six months was difficult to gauge, as 29 percent indicated a decrease in prices, 42 percent saw no change, and 29 percent reported an improvement. The lack of clear consensus is partially due to the result of distinct regional differences (i.e., stronger growth in Africa and a recovering market in the Middle East). Most of the respondents saying the price has improved in the last 6 months are from Southern Africa contributing 36 percent, followed by North Africa at 21 percent. Other countries from the Middle East were not as satisfied with the price trend during the same period contributing 27 percent of the “deteriorated” response.
“Municipalities must invest in RDF plants; cement plants must make use of RDFs and tire” UAE Cement Company production manager
However, over the next 12 months the number of respondents indicating an increase in cement prices climbed to 41 percent. Sub-Saharan respondents were particularly optimistic about prices.
Cement Volumes The majority of respondents indicated that their company’s cement volumes had either remained unchanged, or had actually improved in the last six months (74 percent). Optimism again prevailed with 68 percent responding that that volume levels would improve in the next 12 months as well. Most of the regions had mixed opinions on how cement volumes had evolved in the past six months, except for West Africa where 73 percent of the respondents confirmed that cement volumes in their region has increased. Fifty percent of the respondents from Fertile Crescent on the other hand confirmed that the cement volume in their region has declined during the mentioned period and 72 percent of the respondents in Southern Africa reported no change, or deterioration.
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SURVEY FINDINGS Cement volumes in the next twelve months is optimistic across all regions with more than 70 percent of the respondents from each region answering either “no change” or “improve/ increase”. Southern Africa was generally more pessimistic about the prospects. But over the long term, demand volume prospects remain robust; a recent forecast conducted by CW Group suggests that by 2011 the volume of production in Africa and the Middle East will be in the neighborhood of 350 million tons.
Unit Input Costs Costs continue to rise throughout the region, as the majority (51 percent) of respondents reported that their total input costs had increased over the last six months, and 55 percent indicated that an increase of these costs was likely over the next 12 months. Among all regions, only the Fertile Crescent had a uniform response of “no change” in the past six months. Southern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, at 64 percent, offer the highest number of respondents who state input costs have increased over the past six months and will, potentially, continue to do so for the next twelve. Sixty one percent of East African respondents stated input costs have declined while 32 percent of those in other Middle East countries believe costs will decrease over the next twelve months.
“We are using petroleum coke and are planning to use RDF and tire derived fuels. [The] problem is local regulation [which] is complicated because there are no precedents. We are going to be, with our colleagues, our own precedent, so to speak.” North Africa Cement Company ceo
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SURVEY FINDINGS
“Cement demand has decreased and [currently only] 30 percent [of] plant capacity is utilized� Gulf Region Cement Company executive
Fuel Fuel selection choices predictably vary importantly across the sub-regions, but in the aggregate, coal (32 percent) and fuel oil (32 percent) remain the principal fuel types used. A broader utilization of alternative fuels does not appear to be a focus of participants, as 52 percent indicated they did not foresee alternative fuels having a meaningful role in their company in the next 12 months. Nonetheless, it is encouraging to see that almost half of the companies are considering fuel alternatives to some extent. Based on survey results, Southern Africa confirmed the biggest consumption of coal at 42 percent; North Africa and other Middle East countries of fuel oil at 20 percent each; and North Africa of natural gas at 29 percent.
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SURVEY FINDINGS Widespread and accepted use of tires as an alternative fuel may explain why 20 percent of participants, when asked to proffer an opinion in regards to which alternative fuel may play an increasingly important role in the cement sector, stated tire-derived fuels (TDF) came to mind. Opinions may abound in terms of which alternative fuel may become the most important, but actual plans for achieving that objective seemingly do not, as only a handful of respondents indicated their companies had a specific plan in place for moving toward alternative fuel use. East Africa had the biggest number of respondents that indicated unintended use of biofuels (57 percent), Middle Eastern countries for consumer wastes (50 percent), Central and Southern Africa for industrial wastes (25 percent), and Arabian Peninsula for tire-derived fuels (33 percent).
“Governmental interventions in the MENA region is increasing year after year, in an attempt to control prices; thus, the above may increase competition in the industry and hurt profit margins” MENA Cement Manufacturer executive
“There are persistent power shortages [and] due to this, companies are not using their full capacity. There is [therefore] an acute shortage of cement in the market and there is a big gap between cement demand and supply.” East Africa Ministry supervisor
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SURVEY FINDINGS Capital Budgets Twenty four percent of participants indicated that their capital budgets for new projects and/or upgrades had declined in the last 6 months. Forty four percent noted no-change with 32 percent citing an increase in budgeted capital expenditures. Over the next 12 months, 44 percent of those responding expected their capital budgets to increase, with 41 percent expecting no-change in spending. East and West Africa, with the highest number of respondents (53 percent and 40 percent, respectively), stated their capital budgets increased for the past six months. Fifty-six percent of respondents from West Africa believe that capital budgets will increase in the next twelve months, compared to 25 percent of respondents from Fertile Crescent. The remaining 75 percent of respondents from Fertile Crescent believe that the capital budgets will have no change over the next year.
Employment For the majority of respondents (51 percent), employment levels remained unchanged in the last six months, and 45 percent indicated that would likely remain the situation in the coming 12-month period. Just over 35 percent expected employment levels for their company to increase over the next twelve months.
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SURVEY FINDINGS
Vendors Equipment vendor satisfaction in the last 6 months remained consistent, as 76 percent of respondents reported no change in their level of satisfaction. Few respondents indicated that their satisfaction with their equipment vendors had declined in the past 6 months (11 percent). But the regions that saw the most room for improvement included Central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and some parts of the Middle East. All, except respondents from East Africa on the other hand did express to some extent that their satisfaction level with their equipment vendors has increased.
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“In Tunisia, many studies have been made to introduce Alternative Fuels, notably Tire Derived Fuels, [but] nothing has been installed yet.� Equipment Vendor manager
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SURVEY CONCLUSIONS
survey Conclusions The cement industry in Africa and the Middle East has experienced periods of both turmoil and growth over the last few years. In the six months leading up to the CemWeek 2010 Africa and Middle East Cement Business Sentiment Survey, the concern over increased competition took center stage for most companies throughout the region. While cement prices and volumes had showed signs of improving, the news of climbing input costs likely raised more than a few concerns among companies in regards to sustainable profit margins. “Optimistic� best describes respondents as they looked to the future. This sentiment prevailed among participants; the majority believed business prospects, cement volume, and price levels would continue to improve over the next twelve months. That optimistic outlook was further illustrated by the opinion that the market would continue to improve, spurring additional employment and capital expenditures on upgrades and new projects for the respondents’ companies. Tempering this optimism was the realization by many that competition would likely increase as new providers, both domestically and from abroad, made inroads into the region. Environmental issues were a genuine concern for many, as was the desire to utilize alternative fuel sources in the coming months. However, at this time these remain aspirations and not concrete objectives for most companies. Market conditions, as well as forecasts, continue to improve for this region. While sustainable growth in the African market and a slow but steady recovery for markets in the Middle East may have affected the optimism of the respondents, the reality remains that opportunities abound in this market. Despite several significant challenges related to issues such as production capacity, increased competition, and import/ export tariffs and subsidies, the future for this regional market appears promising.
Please contact the CW Group Research team to discuss further at inquiries@cwgrp.com or +1-702-430-1748 Visit www.cwgrp.com/research for further information.
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