CemWeek Magazine #50: June 2019 by CemWeek

GLOBAL CEMENT INDUSTRY. KNOWLEDGE.

ISSUE 50

JUNE 2019

“No alternative products up to now can effectively replace cement” Song Zhiping,

President of World Cement Association CW Research

Cement bagging equipment sales to decline through 2024 Clinker at the helm of seaborne cementitious trade News

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Analysis

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Market Coverage

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Interviews

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People Moves

WORLD CEMENT, CLINKER &

SLAG SEA-BASED TRADE REPORT The World Cement, Clinker & Slag Sea-Based Trade Report offers a global analysis of seaborne cement, clinker, slag (GBFS), and fly-ash trade. Trade flows, pricing, trading infrastructure are also detailed, while providing a comprehensive review of terminals, and suppliers of cementitious materials to support your strategic decisions. The report projects main flows through 2023 expected to be shipped by ocean-going vessels and also includes prevailing cement trade prices and bulk / dry cargo shipping rates. Particular emphasis is given to understanding the possible supply options and export terminals around the world. Dedicated cement carriers are also analyzed in terms of routes, age, utilization rates and dead-weight tonnage.

Global analysis and forecast of seaborne trade.

LET US GUIDE YOU.

The World Cement, Clinker & Slag Sea-Based Trade Report enables you to: • • • •

Evaluate the competitiveness of cement, clinker, fly ash and slag market Track cement, clinker and slag prices on a consistent and comparable multi-year basis Compare current sea shipping options Understand the industry with a new level of analytical rigor, enabling you to shape your perspective and priorities

CEM ENT • B UILDING MATERIALS • DRY BULK CARGO & SHIPPING • CHEMICALS • INDUST RIAL MINERALS • INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT • PAPER & PULP • PETCOKE research.cwgrp.com •

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EDITOR’S NOTE Letter from the editor

The CemWeek Magazine is published by the CW Group LLC PO Box 5263 Greenwich, CT 06831, USA www.cwgrp.com www.cemweek.com

STAFFBOX ROBERT MADEIRA

Turning tides

CEMWEEK PUBLISHER HEAD OF CW GROUP RESEARCH

The tides are turning for clinker. A year ago, CW Research forecasted the commodity would top gray cement as the cementitious material most traded by sea. And that is exactly what is currently happening in dry bulk markets, with spillovers on world trade. In this issue, CW Research looks back on the main trends regarding seaborne trade of cementitious materials in 2018, and presents a five-year forecast through 2024, including insights on the evolution of the dry bulk market, world trade, cement consumption, and the role of China’s cement capacity rationalization efforts in boosting clinker trade. But even though, or maybe because, clinker continues to assume a predominant role in the world trade of cementitious materials, it is also the main target of environmental concerns surrounding the cement-making process. Environmental concerns are, in fact, the cornerstone of CemWeek Magazine’s exclusive interview with Song Zhiping, President of World Cement Association. In a lengthy and comprehensive discussion, Zhiping addresses the global cement industry’s role in tackling global climate issues, details what has been accomplished so far, and explores possible new business opportunities and revenue streams that a low-carbon economy can bring. Be sure not to miss the interview a few pages ahead. In this issue, CW Research also looks into the world cement bagging equipment market and shows how fewer cement capacity additions and transportation preferences are shaping the sector. Our eyes are also set on the Iraqi cement industry, one that is going through a period of reconstruction and rehabilitation, but whose dependence on crude oil exports could prove challenging in the coming years. The tides are turning for the cement industry. And that is reflected in the cementitious commodities that are traded the most, the way we prefer to ship those commodities, as well as in how we choose to address the environmental challenges resulting from those choices. For if the cement industry aims for smooth sailing, then everyone needs to get on board. Otherwise, we might find ourselves in deep water.

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contents FEATURES 4 Leaders Q&A: Song Zhiping In an environmentally focused interview, Song Zhiping, President of World Cement Association, addresses the global cement industry’s role in tackling global climate issues, details what has been accomplished so far, and explores possible new business opportunities and revenue streams that a low-carbon economy can bring

14 CW Research: Seaborne trade of cementitious materials rising to 180 million tons by 2024 Sea-going vessels handled a larger volume of cementitious materials in 2018, in part boosted by an increase in China’s cement imports. CW Research expects volumes to continue rising in the next five years, albeit with a shift in trade flows and with cement no longer taking center stage 20 CW Research: Cement bagging equipment sales to decline through 2024 CW Research assesses how factors such as a contraction in new cement capacity additions, and shifting cement transportation preferences are causing the world cement bagging equipment market value to shrink over the next five years

26 Country Snapshot: Reconstruction programs to boost Iraq’s cement demand to over 30mn tons by 2024 CW Research analyzes the recovering Iraqi cement market and assesses how reconstruction and rehabilitation infrastructure projects are tied to the country’s oil-driven economy

DEPARTMENTS 1 EdiTor's letter Turning tides

36 cw group meeting agenda CW Group’s upcoming events

3 numbers in brief Average prices for cement in China increased sharply yearon-year in the first three months of 2019, but fell pronouncedly in South America 30 Research Cement Volumes 32 Departments People Equipment

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37 BUZZ Top 10 CemWeek, BMWeek and PetcokeWeek stories

numbers in brief

Cement ex-works prices show varying trends in first quarter

Average prices for cement in China increased sharply year-on-year in the first three months of 2019, but fell pronouncedly in South America In the first quarter of 2019, on a yearly basis, ex-works prices showed wide regional variation, going from a decrease of 8.4 percent in South America to a surge of 14.9 percent in China. In the latter, higher prices were supported by constrained supply due to stricter regulations on cement production. During the first quarter of 2019, North and Central American cement ex-works prices increased by 3.8 percent on a quarterly basis, with private investment in the residential segment and public investment in infrastructure contributing to this upward trend. Also in the first quarter of 2019, South America’s average cement ex-works price fell by 8.4 percent year-on-year, while in Western Europe the regional average ex-works price of cement fell marginally, and in the Mediterranean Basin improved by a small margin when compared to the previous year. CHART: Average cement ex-works prices by region (mn tons)

Source: CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report

In China, the average ex-works price of cement in the first quarter of 2019 increased 16.7 percent year-on-year, as the local cement sector continues to implement measures to reduce supply considering Beijing’s crackdown on pollution. Regarding the region of Asia Pacific excluding China, weak performance in key markets such as Indonesia, burdened by overcapacity, and the Philippines, where local manufacturers face competition from imports, has dragged regional ex-works prices down. CHART: Average shipped cement volumes and retail export prices in select markets during 4Q2018 (mn tons)

Source: CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report

Ex-works prices in the Middle East and in Sub-Saharan Africa remained mostly unchanged from the previous quarter, with only minor corrections below one percent being registered in these regions. www.cemweek.com

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Leaders Q&A

Song Zhiping

President of World Cement Association In an environmentally focused interview, Song Zhiping, President of World Cement Association, addresses the global cement industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s role in tackling global climate issues, details what has been accomplished so far, and explores possible new business opportunities and revenue streams that a low-carbon economy can bring.

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Leaders Q&A 2018 was a productive year for the World Cement Association (WCA). In six months alone, the Association welcomed 16 cement producers as new members, with total members now representing over 1 billion tons capacity. Do you think this quick expansion points towards a more conscious and engaged global cement industry? Registered in London on May 2016, WCA is the first organization working on a global basis to represent the cement industry. WCA is committed to leading and guiding the cement industry and its stakeholders to undertake social responsibilities with more positive attitude and practical solutions.

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The energy consumption per unit product of emerging market countries represented by China has been reduced by 30% compared with the past And it commits itself to providing allround value-added services to its members, including reinforcing the connectivity of members and sharing and promoting of new technologies, new equipment, new business models through such platforms as the four professional committees (the Environment and Climate Committee, the Safety and Health Committee, the Technology and Innovation Committee and the Market and Logistics Committee) and the World Cement Conference.

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The philosophy and purposes of WCA have been recognized by cement practitioners and stakeholders. The membership of WCA has grown rapidly, with 66 members in 35 countries representing more than 1 billion tons of annual cement production capacity. At present, the world cement industry is facing challenges from the market, capital, technology, environmental protection and other aspects. Through the platform of WCA, the industry will be more conscious and engaged in the transition to a low-carbon and circular economy, actively respond to social responsibilities and environmental challenges, achieve sustainable development and realize the integration of economy and the nature.

WCA constantly urges the industry to adopt a proactive posture towards tackling climate change. As such, WCA has devised The World Cement Association Climate Action Plan. What are its core guidelines? Climate change has brought significant challenges to the planet and society. In June 2018, WCA held the first Global Climate Change Forum, at which the WCA Climate Action Plan was extensively discussed and a feasible action plan was made. The main aim is to accelerate the decarbonization process. The core guidelines are:

• As a global organization, WCA will take on its responsibility and mission. WCA is fully committed to the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global climate warming well-below 2 degrees versus preindustrial times and to increasing resilience of human communities to climate events. • No more words, actions are needed. WCA will deepen cooperation at the industry level and explore cross-industry symbiosis model to promote the efforts in the innovation of cement technology and product application, to find good solutions and to achieve a balance between carbon emission reduction and economic benefits. Through the guidance of WCA, we would like to make cement enterprises voluntarily and conscientiously participate in the actions against climate change in a more broad and deep way.

The degree of emphasis on environmental protection and the strictness of policies will directly determine the motivation of enterprises in sustainable development • Environmental protection: take China as an example, emission of dust, SO2 and NOx have been reduced by 80% over the last 30 years.

• Development of waste heat recovery (WHR): by the end of 2018, 95% of China’s cement clinker production lines have been installed with lowtemperature WHR systems. The power generated by these WHR systems amounts to 40 billion KWH per year while an annual clinker output of 1.3 billion tons is taken into account. This is equal to the amount of 17 million tons of coal saving and emission reduction of 35 million tons of CO2, 280,000 tons of SO2 as well as 42,000 tons of dust. • We promote circular economy in the use of raw materials and fuels. For example, we promote the use of industrial by-products as alternative materials to save the natural resources to the greatest extent.

Unit: mg/m3 Previous Chinese Previous Chinese standard standard (1985) (1996) Dust NOx SOx

150-800 — —

New Chinese standard (2013)

Ultra-low emission standard (Henan, 2018)

20-30 320-400 100-200

10 100 50

100-150 800-1,600 400-800

How far do you • Energy consumption: cement • Use of cement kilns to co-process think the global various wastes such as municipal production process has been upgraded cement industry waste, sludge, solid wastes, etc. and modified through technological has come towards Taking the lead in this field, European research and development. becoming green cement enterprises already made and sustainable? mature application of cement kiln coOver the past 40 years, the cement industry has made great progress in environmental protection and sustainable development:

processing technology on a large-scale 10 to 20 years ago.

Comprehensive power consumption KWH/ton cement Current level Level of 1980-1990

Clinker heat consumption GJ/ton clinker

<80

<3,000

>130

>3,700

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Leaders Q&A • Clean energy becomes effective. Explore the use of clean energy such as solar power, wind power and other clean energy to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. • C onstruction of green quarries. Promptly improve the restoration of the ecological environment, boost efforts in quarry reclamation, and restore the quarry ecology. • Improve quality and eliminate lowgrade cement.

Emerging markets have unique advantages such as more advanced equipment and technology level and low upgrading and modification cost

in technology fields and equipment • A ttach importance to safety and health: suppliers to enhance knowledge increase safety input and raise safety exchange and increase innovation. level by equipping on-site facilities, personal protection equipment and safety training. More and more cement • Insufficient policy support: European environmental protection policies are plants value the importance of the strict while in underdeveloped countries environment and they have made the policies are more tolerant. The degree of plant areas alike gardens. emphasis on environmental protection and the strictness of policies will directly What do you think are the determine the motivation of enterprises main obstacles preventing in energy conservation, emission better results? reduction and sustainable development. • Insufficient communication: The The current actions of the industry cement industry in the world is currently focus more on technology, and the not sharing enough new technologies, work on environmental protection and equipment and business models due sustainable development lags far behind to existing barriers. Through regular that on the development of technology knowledge dissemination activities and equipment. WCA will strengthen and global climate change conferences, dialogue with governments and strive WCA gathers well-known experts

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for policy support to promote energy conservation, emission reduction and sustainable development of industries. • T echnical feasibility needs to balance input and output: The cement industry has developed advanced production technology and equipment, carbon capture and storage facilities, WHR facilities and measures of using alternative materials and fuels to reduce carbon emission intensity. But their application feasibility is restricted by the economic output. How to balance the input-output ratio remains a challenge. WCA will strengthen the technical feasibility and promote its implementation. • Th e difficulty of promoting new technologies: the cement industry is constantly developing new technologies. For example, the world’s first demonstration project of cement kiln CO2 capture and purification system constructed by Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd has been successfully put into operation. But it is currently facing challenges in the marketing, sales and promotion of CO2 products.

How can innovation play a role in shrinking the cement industry’s carbon footprint?

The carbon footprint of the cement industry mainly involves raw material extraction, cement production, product application, logistics and transportation, circular economy, etc. By deploying and launching innovative solutions, carbon emission can be reduced: â&#x20AC;˘ Raw material exploitation: search for alternative raw materials At present, the major raw material for cement production is still limestone, and roughly 60% of the total CO2 emission for cement production is derived from decomposition of calcium carbonate. To cut carbon emission, the cement industry is actively seeking alternative raw materials such as industrial byproducts to replace natural limestone. â&#x20AC;˘ Cement production: reduce the consumption of fossil fuels The fuels used in cement production are mainly coal, natural gas and oil, and the CO2 emission during the combustion process accounts for about 32% of the total. At the same time, cement production requires a large amount of power. Most countries in the world still use coal and oil for power generation. Therefore, CO2 is emitted indirectly for cement manufacturing, accounting for 8% of the total. The carbon emission

The World Bank predicts that the global carbon emission market will exceed US$3.5 trillion by 2020 in cement production can be reduced mainly through the following two aspects: first, the energy consumption per unit product can be reduced through the innovation of process, technology and equipment and the improvement of management. Second, making full use of the waste heat recovered, solar power, wind power and other clean energy to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.

â&#x20AC;˘ Product application: adjust product standards and building codes WCA is committed to sustaining and whenever possible enhancing their efforts in the education and training of concrete producers and users, as well as in supporting the professionalization of the construction sector working collaboratively with the other players along the value chain. To lower the comprehensive carbon emission for buildings, WCA promotes the use of low carbon standards and building codes, including those requiring using cement to replace steel and asphalt which are of high-pollution and highenergy-consumption.

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Leaders Q&A • Logistics and transportation: Develop “Cement +” The weak Develop the “Cement +” business, enterprises expand the industrial chain and realize the integrated planning and with high energy reasonable layout of quarries, clinker consumption and production lines, grinding stations, high cost will be ready-mix concrete batching plants and aggregate production lines, phased out vigorously develop e-commerce to reduce wasting of resources for the transportation of limestone, additives • Equipment optimization: and cement products. in order to reduce energy consumption, the clinker • Circular economy grinding process equipment CO2 emitted can be collected, stored has been constantly and utilized through carbon capture adjusted from tube mill, technology. In addition, co-processing vertical mill to roller press by cement kilns not only makes the system. The preheater wastes harmless but also recycles and has been upgraded saves resources, resultantly eliminate from 5-stage to 6-stage. CO2 impact on the environment. However, on average the main production lines What new business of some established opportunities and revenue cement enterprises still streams could the low-carbon use old equipment transition bring to the global installed in the 1980s. cement industry? So there is a huge room for upgrading. As a global cement industry platform, WCA has the ability, willingness and resources to find the most innovative • Waste heat recovery: 95% of China’s products, solutions and business models to cement plants have create new business opportunities and new been equipped with revenue sources while supporting the lowWHR system. WHR carbon transition of the cement industry. system generates 25-40kWh/t power per ton of clinker, which reduces energy costs and CO2 emission.

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No alternative products up to now can effectively replace cement However, WHR system needs to be widely promoted in other countries. • Co-processing by cement kilns: co-processing by cement kilns is recognized as the safest technology with the most thorough treatment results. There is no need for secondary treatment and it can treat various wastes in large quantity. By using certain municipal solid waste coprocessing technologies, above 60% kiln fuels can be substituted with alternative ones. Economic benefits are reaped for cement enterprises. At present, co-processing by cement kiln has become a common disposal technology in the developed countries, but the technology has just been launched in the emerging countries.

• Technology of “carbon capture”: in October 2018, the world’s 1st cement kiln CO2 capture and purification demonstration project built by Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd was successfully put into operation. The system collects residual carbon emitted which can be recycled and used as resources in agricultural and other industrial fields. The commercialization of such technology will help to turn waste into treasure and generate profits. • Digital technology: data exchange of artificial intelligence and manufacturing technology has begun to take shape. This technology has the potential to improve resource efficiency and bring new opportunities for energy conservation and emission reduction in the cement industry. • Carbon emission trading: the World Bank predicts that the global carbon emission market will exceed US$3.5 trillion by 2020, and the carbon trading market will become a gathering place for investment and financing capital at domestic and abroad. Considering that the cement industry is a major carbon emitter and most of the emerging countries have not been officially included in the carbon emission trading system, the carbon trading volume and amount will be huge.

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Leaders Q&A A large proportion of the World Cement Associationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s membership hails from emerging markets. What role can these markets play in tackling the industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main challenges? Most members of WCA come from emerging markets, such as China, India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Turkey, Africa, etc. The cement production lines in these regions and countries were built in recent years, so they have unique advantages such as more advanced equipment and technology level and low upgrading and modification cost. In contrast, established enterprises in mature markets have old technologies and equipment and high reconstruction costs due to their early start. With the globalization of trade and the strengthening of information exchange, enterprises with backward technology will be urged to make equipment upgrade and modification. The process will accelerate the pace of global technological innovation.

The weak enterprises with high energy consumption and high cost will be phased out

the emerging market countries are still economic development-oriented and the environmental protection policy is not so strict. Therefore, the cement enterprises there are not strongly motivated to pursue energy conservation and emission reduction. On the other hand, after a hundred years of development, the management system of established enterprises has become mature and developed countries pay more attention to the balance between economy and environmental protection. Through learning from them, the enterprises in the emerging markets will make more improvement in energy conservation, However, the management level emission reduction and sustainable of cement enterprises in emerging development. markets is relatively low. Moreover,

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From the perspective of the development trend of globalization and the impact of the Paris Agreement, cement enterprises in emerging markets and mature markets will jointly face environmental and economic challenges. WCA is committed to promoting connectivity, sharing and promoting new technologies, new equipment and new business models and guiding global cement enterprises to jointly fulfil responsibilities and make efforts to promote sustainable development.

WCA expects global cement demand growth to slow in 2019, driven by escalating trade wars between the US and China, and a slowdown in construction activity in key European countries, like Germany and France. Do you think these developments can dampen global cement companiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; efforts in meeting their environmental agenda? There will be repercussions, but the overall benefits outweigh the disadvantages. The slowdown of the total demand for cement will intensify the market competition.

Weak enterprises with high energy consumption and high cost will be phased out while the advantageous enterprises will actively upgrade and modify technologies. Thus, the entire industry will be inspired to accelerate the environmental-friendly transition and achieve sustainable development.

No alternative products up to now can effectively replace cement

How do you envision the global cement industry in the next decade? Does cement However, cement production also brings have a place in the low-carbon heavy load to the environment. In 2018, economy of the future? the world produced 4.1 billion tons of Compared with copper having a history of 4,000 years and steel with a history of 2,500 years, cement has a history less than 200 years. But cement is an indispensable fundamental raw material and has made a great contribution to the development of human society. No alternative products up to now can effectively replace it, and it will continue to play an important role in the construction in the foreseeable future. As the world economy continues to move forward and urbanization forges ahead, the demand for cement remains relatively high and technological innovations in cement production and application are promising.

cement and generated 2.5 billion tons of CO2 accounting for about 7% of the total global CO2 emission (data from CSI â&#x20AC;&#x153;Technology Roadmap: Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry.â&#x20AC;?). The cement industry is the third largest energy consumer. In the face of severe global climate issues, the cement industry, like all energy and CO2-intensive industries, needs to face climate change challenges and undertake relevant social responsibilities. It will play an important role in the low-carbon economy in the future.

The cement industry has been committed to reducing the consumption of coal, oil and other fossil fuels as much as possible through various strategies such as technology upgrading and new energy development. At the same time, we are looking for revolutionary solutions through the technology innovation in cement production and application. The case in points are as follows: using by-products from other industries to produce high-grade and special cement, replacing steel and asphalt (which are of high-pollution and of highenergy-consumption) with cement for constructing traditional buildings so as to lower the comprehensive carbon emission for buildings, applying carbon products obtained by adopting carbon capture technology to agricultural and other industrial fields. In this way, winwin situation for the cement industry, economic and social development and the ecological and environmental protection will be attained.

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FEATURE CW RESEARCH

seaborne Trade of cementitious materials rising to 180 million tons by 2024

Sea-going vessels handled a larger volume of cementitious materials in 2018, in part boosted by an increase in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cement imports. CW Research expects volumes to continue rising in the next five years, albeit with a shift in trade flows and with cement no longer taking center stage

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FEATURE

hina’s move to ban greenfield cement expansions in an attempt to curb emissions and improve the quality of life around its industryheavy cities has proved a boon to cement exporters around the world: overall shipments of cementitious materials by sea increased in 2018, in part due to an increase in imports from China. “The internal dynamics of the Chinese cement market, unequivocally tilted towards capacity reduction and limits on production by environmental concerns, are behind the surge in clinker imports, accentuating the shift from gray cement to clinker exports as the main driver of seaborne trade of cementitious products”, notes Carolina Pereira, Business Analyst at CW Group. Demand in the market has continued to expand healthily as the government attempts to promote growth by increasing

infrastructure works, in order to combat the forecast slowdown in the economy, largely affected by the trade war with the United States and other macroeconomic factors.

Global trade of cementitious materials rose to over 150 million tons in 2018 2018 at a glance The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of world trade. Developing economies are estimated to have accounted for most of the world seaborne cargo shipments in 2018. The improvement of dry cargo freight rates was driven by global economic growth, which pushed up the demand for essential commodities worldwide.

Global gray cement trade outlook (million tons, 2019F to 2024F)

China is the main driver of dry bulks, with iron and coal as the main commodities traded. Despite the trade war with the US, the Asian giant remains the main importer of these commodities. From the total cement consumption, 1.4% is traded by sea. Out of the total volume of cementitious products traded internationally, seaborne trade accounts for roughly 80%. Compared to 2017, the global trade of cementitious materials rose to over 150 million tons in 2018. Between 2013 and 2018, gray cement was the most traded commodity, although only less than two percent of its total global consumption was shipped via seaway. But as projected in CW Research’s previous forecast, clinker, including both gray and white, ended up replacing gray cement as the most traded cementitious commodity by sea, accounting for over 40 percent of the total sea-based cementitious trade in 2018. Over the same period, gray cement came in second place, with almost 60 million tons traded by sea, followed by ground blast furnace slag. White cement and fly ash accounted for a much smaller portion of the global seaborne cementitious trade, with a combined slice inferior to five percent of total. The largest volume of cementitious materials is traded in South-East Asia and in Asia Pacific, where the total cargo moved in 2018 is estimated at 70 million tons, out of which both gray and white clinker beat gray cement by a comfortable margin. Asia’s key trade factors include its highly competitive prices and a strong economic development, which favor trade to countries where cement is in short supply.

Source: CW Research

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Main trading regions and pairings (2018, mm tons)

Great Lakes Great Lakes

Western Europe & Baltics

West Coast US

Black Sea & intraMed Basin

North Africa

Middle East Middle East

Asia Pacific

Source: CW Research

Asia-Pacific nations also benefit from trade agreements between themselves that makes the imported or exported material cheaper, among them a reduction in tariffs. As this region also comprises several emerging economies, cement is a highly sought-after commodity in their attempt to modernize and achieve the same development level as mature economies’. Regarding transportation preferences, bulk shipping continues to make up the lion’s share of sea-based trade of cementitious materials, despite the increased preference for big bags. Nevertheless, bagged cement shipments continue to represent an important segment of the total seaborne trade.

US-China trade war shifting trade flows During the last trading session of 2018, the Baltic Dry Index – which measures shipping costs for dry bulk commodities, including cementitious materials transported in bulk via sea – settled at

1,271 points, sliding 95 points compared to the same period the previous year.

Clinker replaced gray cement as the most traded cementitious commodity by sea An initially positive outlook for the dry bulk market in 2018 was disrupted by the trade war between the US and China, and since October the cost of transportation of almost all types of dry bulk cargo has decreased. The ongoing trade war is leading to a shift in commercial routes, with China reaching for suppliers of grain

and iron ore in South America instead of the United States. Furthermore, new fuel regulations to be rolled out by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 are creating volatility and incentivizing vessel scrapping, especially in the Capesize segment. So far in 2019, demolitions of dry bulk ships in the first months of 2019 have soared compared to 2018, following poor market conditions. Daily earnings for the Capesize market are performing below average, much due to the Brumadinho dam collapse in Brazil, adverse weather in Australia, as well as contracting Chinese iron ore demand. As such, limiting fleet expansions could prove crucial to restore market balance. When compared with 2018, sea-based trade volumes for cementitious materials are expected to improve at a modest average annual growth rate, reaching almost 180 million tons by 2024.

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FEATURE Seaborne shipping of gray cement is expected to fall between 2019 and 2024, while the clinker and fly ash trade in this period is likely to heat up. Trade volumes for white cement and slag are also forecast

The ongoing trade war is leading to a shift in commercial routes

to grow during this period, although at a more moderate pace when compared with the volumes of the other expanding commodities.

Asia fronts new cement carrier additions In 2018, the total number of active cement carriers surpassed 360 units, each with an average age of 26 years, and the total dead weight tonnage topping 2.7 million, the highest figure recorded since 2010. Specialized cement carriers move about 25 million tons of cement per year internationally and are now working at a 95% utilization rate. Nonetheless, more stringent environmental regulations and a growing cement trade are likely to lead to both more conversions and new builds.

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Seaborne shipping of gray cement is expected to fall between 2019 and 2024 Apart from specialized cement carriers, cementitious materials are also shipped via general dry bulk carriers, container ships and barges. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Asia accounts for most of the cement carriers operated at the global level. The vast coastline of markets such as Japan, China, or South Korea provides an incentive to domestic coastal shipment, while frequent

storms and strict environmental regulation skew demand in favor of cement carriersâ&#x20AC;?, assesses Carolina Pereira, Business Analyst at CW Group. Solid demand in Asia has contributed to a turnaround in the market and investorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; confidence, and interest in new vessels and conversions has been increasing. Therefore, most of the newly added vessels found their place in markets such as Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, etc. When looking at market shares of large cement companies by cargos moved, LafargeHolcim, HC Trading and Cemex control almost 30 percent of the market. At the global level, there are almost 800 cement terminals, more than 150 waterside grinding plants (slag and clinker), and almost 100 waterside integrated cement plants. Most of the cement terminals at the global level are located in Far East Asia, followed by Europe.

About the report The World Cement, Clinker & Slag Sea-based Trade Report provides an in-depth and data-oriented analysis of trade-related development, historical trade flows and prices, and changes in exports and imports during the past years from a regional perspective, with a focus on key markets. The report also projects key cement and clinker supply-demand gaps that will sustain world cement trading for the next few years. Key exporters, their facilities, and traders are profiled, as well as key ocean-going cement carrier operations and their vessels. Examined trade flows include gray cement, clinker, white cement, and slag, as well as a discussion of fly ash trade, in bag, big-bag, or bulk form. The report projects main flows through 2024 expected to be shipped by ocean going vessels and includes prevailing cement trade prices and bulk/dry cargo shipping rates.

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/287-world-cement,-clinkerslag-sea-based-trade-forecastthrough-2024

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

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FEATURE

CW RESEARCH

Cement bagging equipment sales to decline through 2024 CW Research assesses how factors such as a contraction in new cement capacity additions, and shifting cement transportation preferences are causing the world cement bagging equipment market value to shrink over the next five years

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JUNE 2019

FEATURE

W Researchâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s World Cement Bag and Bagging Equipment Industry Report, which includes a forecast up to 2024, projects the market to contract to USD 154 million in the next five years, tied to several constraints around it. One of the main issues affecting growth for the industry is the forecasted drop in cement capacity additions during the same period, which CW Research assessed in their first quarter 2019 update to their Global Cement Volume Forecast Report.

One of the main challenges to the global cement bagging equipment market seems to come down to logistics preference, as many manufacturers are shifting from shipping their products in bags to containers or other bulk solutions. The other key issue is the projected decline in new capacity

additions, although opportunities may still arise in emerging markets, especially when tied to labor costs, legislations, and overall market preferences.

Asia ex-China is the leader in terms of new cement bagging capacity additions forecast for the next five years, followed by Africa For 2019, new cement bagging capacity is also expected to drop sharply when compared to 2014, when around 66.9 million tons per annum of bagging capacity were added at a global level.

Chart: New and upgraded cement bagging capacity (mn tons, 2014 to 2019)

Source: CW Research Global Cement Bagging Equipment Industry and Forecast 2019

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By 2024, overall annual cement bagging capacity additions are projected at under 54 million tons.

The challenges The dimmer outlook for global economic growth in 2019 is likely to dampen investment in new equipment and machines in several markets. Emerging markets and developing economies in particular are being affected by low commodity prices and the depreciation of local currencies, and the growing trade tensions between two of the largest international markets, China and the United States, will also weigh down growth. Despite the mildly negative economic sentiment, cement companies continue to develop positively and their investment perspective remains solid, as the industry recovers from the Great Recession years. Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s new policies calling for a curb in cement capacity additions are one of the main boosters of the forecast decline in cement capacity additions in the 2019-2024 period, but this legislation is also expected to impact demand for cement bagging equipment, as it is heavily connected to expansions in capacity, particularly greenfield ones. While demand in some markets is expanding, that is unlikely to translate into other capacity additions, as countries facing overcapacity look at export opportunities.

Outside of China, cement capacity has been expanding, although the growth pace is slower when compared to the breakneck speed achieved in additions during China’s most expansive years, as well as in other emerging economies in Africa and Asia. Stagnant markets also present their unique challenges, as the long use life of the equipment could lead to a decline in demand. Additionally, the expansion of the global cement bagging equipment market is conditioned by the currently volatile bulk shipping market, as companies are now swaying towards this transportation method. However, this tends to change from market to market, and is reliant on other factors, including availability of transport, fuel costs and access to transport hubs, the degree of vertical integration between cement producers, concrete manufacturers, and construction companies, as well as many other minute details that affect decisions.

The opportunities The rise in labor costs in emerging markets – particularly those in the Asia ex-China region and in Africa, which have the most potential for expansion of cement and bagging capacity additions – is expected to lead producers to invest in automation across their production line, which would

For 2019, new cement bagging capacity is also expected to drop sharply when compared to 2014 especially benefit the palletizing and wrapping segments of the industry. Other possible positive developments are new policies in cement transport requirements, and new bag weights or formats, as this would likely push companies to acquire new machines in order to meet these standards. Bag fillers are still set to remain the largest segment within the industry, accounting for more than half of the total market size, even though their capacity addition rate is expected to decline when comparing 2024 to 2019. Meanwhile, loading equipment

is expected to lose ground over the next five years, in detriment of palletizing and wrapping. The largest markets for cement bagging equipment are Asia ex-China and Africa, which hold more than half of the market share estimated for 2019, but Western Europe and North Africa are also likely to see a meager growth in their capacity expansion for these machines over the next five years.

The bird’s eye view Regional differences are highly pronounced, with sharp trends in one market being mostly absent from another. Between advanced markets and emerging economies, the trends are very disparate, with some being heavily consolidated and automated, and others still relying on manual labor for their dispatching operations. In North America and Western Europe, most factories are already equipped with palletizers and wrappers, and few capacity additions either in cement in general or in bagging in particular are expected, other than the odd brownfield expansion or upgrade.

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JUNE 2019

FEATURE Chart: Cement bag market size by region (2014-2019, bn USD)

Source: CW Research Global Cement Bagging Equipment Industry and Forecast 2019

In Eastern Europe and CIS, demand for new equipment is now being driven by replacements or the expansion of existing plants, similar to the trends in North America and Western Europe, as new capacity addition has slowed down along with the decrease in demand. Meanwhile, Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s efforts to reduce overcapacity will have a large impact on the market, as the rate of retirements is higher than new capacity additions, but demand for bagging equipment could still remain steady as facilities improve their operations or new ones come online in order to replace the outdated capacity in the country. In the Middle East, new capacity additions have tumbled sharply over the past five years due to several headwinds, but is now stabilizing. However, as labor is cheap, the use of wrappers and palletizers is not as popular, and growth perspectives in this market remain overall subdued. Latin America has also seen a slowdown in capacity additions, and trends across the 24

JUNE 2019

The expansion of the global cement bagging equipment market is conditioned by the currently volatile bulk shipping market, as companies are now swaying towards this transportation method

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markets tend to vary, with southern markets being keener to use palletizers when compared to their northern neighbors. Meanwhile, Asia ex-China is the leader in terms of new cement bagging capacity additions forecast for the next five years, followed by Africa. But while in Asia the inflating labor costs are causing companies to consider a switch to automation, in Africa the inexpensive labor means that palletizing and wrapping machines are not as widespread.

Conclusion The cement bag and bagging equipment market is expecting an overall downward trend in the 2019-2024 period, caused in part by Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s new policies to deter capacity additions, as well as a global trend to slow down expansions as more and more markets become self-sufficient or reach a state of overcapacity. This provides both its unique challenges and opportunities, which vary from country to country, and from region to region, with

Between advanced markets and emerging economies, market trends are very disparate, with some being heavily consolidated and automated, and others still relying on manual labor for their dispatching operations some regions, such as North America and Western Europe, being highly consolidated both in terms of cement capacity and their use of machinery, while others are still growing their own production line and are keen on decreasing their labor costs via investing in automation. The next few years are not likely to be quite so challenging as the ones during the Great Recession, however, as investment within the industry remains healthy, and growth possibilities still abound in the rising markets of the southern hemisphere. www.cemweek.com

About the report CW Groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s World Cement Bag & Bagging Equipment Industry and Forecast Report addresses important market dynamics and provides a five-year outlook for equipment used in the bagging of cement, including entire dispatch lines. The report provides a comprehensive view of this market segment, providing critical decision support information for cement and cement bag producers, kraft paper manufacturers, distributors, suppliers of bagging equipment and other stakeholders. The report explores demand for cement bags and related bagging equipment on a global as well as a regional basis. Additionally, shares for bag vs bulk distribution, market trends and packaging options (kraft paper, polypropylene etc.) are discussed together with an outlook for the industry.

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/research/research-products/ product/288-world-cement-bagbagging-equipment-industry-andforecast-%E2%80%93-2019-edition

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

JUNE 2019

Country Snapshot: Iraq

cw research

Reconstruction programs to boost Iraqâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cement demand to over 30mn tons by 2024 CW Research analyzes the recovering Iraqi cement market and assesses how reconstruction and rehabilitation infrastructure projects are tied to the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oil-driven economy

JUNE 2019

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Photo Credit: Maxence Peniguet/RNW Media

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JUNE 2019

Country Snapshot: Iraq

fter years plagued by conflict, Iraq is rising from the ashes and working on recovering its economy and industrial sectors. Highly dependent on crude oil exports, the Iraqi economy and thus construction investments are susceptible to the volatility of the international price of the commodity. Nevertheless, construction activity has been increasing thanks to reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts, delivering positive spillover effects to the cement industry.

An important milestone was reached when the Lafarge Group entered the domestic cement industry in 2008 according to CW Research’s 2019 update of the Iraq Cement Market Report. Cement consumption figures in the country are being boosted by strong reconstruction demand.

Construction projects dependent on crude oil prices Between 2010 and 2018, national

Iraq’s cement consumption is forecast to increase to over 30 million tons by 2024,

construction activity registered sustained growth, positively influenced by the

Baghdad

Iraq

JUNE 2019

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country’s reconstruction and rehabilitation programs after defeating ISIS, as well as by ongoing large infrastructure projects. However, Iraq’s economic dependence on crude oil exports could prove challenging. According to Prashant Singh, CW Group’s Associate Director: “Although Iraq’s GDP is expected to experience an annual growth rate of over of 2.5 percent over the next five years, that is dependent on the outlook for crude oil prices over the same time horizon. Most crucially for Iraq, it is expected to increase production once the OPEC production quota is set to expire in mid-2019, leading to an improvement in potential revenue”.

A young and recovering market Up until 2003, the 50-year-old Iraqi cement industry was state-owned. From that year onwards, the cement sector split into state plants and private operators. An important milestone was reached when the Lafarge Group entered the domestic cement industry in 2008, with the acquisition of Orascom Industries. Currently, the status of the Iraqi cement sector reflects all the military conflicts and the international sanctions inflicted during a long period that began in 1990 until recently, which severely impacted the sector. Now, the industry is struggling to pick up after more than a decade of low performance. Cement production, which has been growing robustly in the past five years, is forecast to experience a reduced albeit still impressive expansion until 2024.

cHART: APPARENT CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION FORECAST (2019F-2024F)

About the report The Iraq Coast Cement Market Report, part of CW Researchâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cement Industry Country Report series, meets the country-level cement market research needs of small and large businesses, analysts and governments.

Source: CW Research

Cement production is forecast to experience a reduced albeit still impressive expansion until 2024

installed in the country. Recently, producers such as Attock Cement and Lucky Cement from Pakistan have expressed interest in entering the Iraqi cement market in the forthcoming years.

The reports cover cement volume trends in detail, analyzing trade flows, cement demand and production (historical and a five-year outlook), per-capita consumption, and the competitive landscape, including company profiles, cement production facility details, including past and announced brownfield production increases and greenfield projects. Cement Industry Country Reports also cover demand drivers, including macro-economic and construction sector dynamics, for the specific country. Industry reports are presented in an objective, easy-to-understand format, providing hard-to-find answers to top market research questions.

More information about the report can be found here: https://www.cwgrp. com/cemweek-reports/product/289iraq-cement-market-report-forecastthrough-2024

Southern Cement State Company, Lafarge Iraq, and Faruk Holding are some of the companies with operating facilities

For more information and placing an order, please contact Liviu Dinu, Market Services & Marketing Consultant, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-74467-44-11, or e-mail at ld@cwgrp.com.

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JUNE 2019

CEMENT MARKETS

CW Research

Cement Volumes In March 2019, the countries in the Middle East region saw their performance in both consumption and production trend downwards, as their economic performance has been worsening and increased competition in the saturated markets led companies to cut down on output.

In Pakistan, year-to-date consumption fell by 6.3 percent, as the country’s economy plunged and the government was forced to call for an economic bailout.

In Saudi Arabia, both cement production and demand declined during the first quarter, with production falling 6.3 percent to 11.1 million tons, while consumption stood at 10.8 million tons, a drop of 9.4 percent. While the construction project pipeline in the country remains solid due to the many government and privately-led initiatives, the sector is still facing

a number of issues, from labor and contracting, to overcapacity. In Pakistan, year-to-date consumption fell by 6.3 percent, as the country’s economy plunged and the government was forced to call for an economic bailout. The cement sector is also dealing with tightening competition in its export markets, and capacity keeps expanding. Latin America, on the other hand, showed a mild rise in consumption, although Argentina’s crisis took its toll on cement demand for the period. Argentina’s cement production fell by 2.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of

CHART: Year-to-Date Cement Production in March 2019 (%)

Sources: CW Research

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CW Research CEMENT MARKETS

2019, to 2.7 million tons, as several headwinds affected its economic output during this period. Meanwhile, Colombiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s production rose by 4.5 percent, to 3.1 million tons. Peru had a good performance during the first three months of the year, with production expanding by 5.3 percent from the first quarter of 2018, to 5.3 million tons. In Asia, India and Vietnam were the top performers during the January-March period, with cement production increasing by 11.7 and 10.9 percent, respectively. Thailand stood out from these economies, with cement demand dropping 2.0 percent on a yearly basis, while

consumption slowed down by 1.4 percent. In China, cement production increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter of the year, despite the continued curbs on output and overall operations, totaling 391.5 million tons. In Indonesia, cement consumption remained mostly in line with the equivalent period of the previous year, with not many changes happening in the market during the first three months of the year.

CHART: Year-to-Date Cement Demand in March 2019 (%)

Peru had a good performance during the first three months of the year, with production expanding by 5.3 percent from the first quarter of 2018, to 5.3 million tons.

Sources: CW Research

To learn more, please contact the CW Research team at sales@cwgrp.com www.cemweek.com

JUNE 2019

DEPARTMENTS

PEOPLE Hail Cement appoints new board member Hail Cement appointed Engineer Othman Mohammed Omar Bafakih to the vacant seat on its Board of Directors. The appointment is valid from 28 April 2019 until 29 November 2021. Bafakih will be an independent member, as was decided on the meeting held on 28 April 2019. The decision to appoint the engineer is not considered final in the membership of the council and will be presented in the next General Assembly for approval.

Qassim Cement welcomes new member to its board of directors Hasana Investment, which is whollyowned by the General Organization for Social Insurance, and the entity responsible for managing its investments, informed Qassim Cement that it will be represented in the companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Board of Directors by a new member. The new representative of the company will be Tarek Ben Khalid Al-Marshould, Director of the Project Management Office at the General Organization for Social Insurance. Al-Marshould replaced Adel Bin Mohammed Al-Kharashi effective May 19.

JUNE 2019

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PEOPLE Holcim Argentina appoints new director Holcim Argentina has appointed Marcelo Arrieta as its new director for 2019. Meanwhile, CĂĄrlos Espina Iglesias was elected as the vice president, while Oliver Osswald, Patricio Rotman and Ercole Felippa will be officiating as full directors. The company is part of the LafargeHolcim Group, and performs most of its business in Argentina.

East African Portland Cement appoints new acting Managing Director

East African Portland Cement appointed Stephen Kyalo Nthei as its acting Managing Director, with effect since 20 May 2019. Nthei will be replacing Simon Peter Ole Nkeri, which was sacked by the

companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s board. Nthei had joined the company in April 2007, serving several roles, including as Head of Internal Audit and later as the Head of Financial Management.

The company had a loss of KES 1.26 billion in the half year to December 2018, and has a total debt of KES 10.8 billion. It has a fifteen percent share in the Kenyan market.

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JUNE 2019

DEPARTMENTS

EQUIPMENT Haver & Boecker introduces new VT module Haver & Boecker announced that its machinery division has launched a new VT filling module, of which its SEAL and ROTO-LOCK innovations are also part. In the SEAL process, a sleeve in the specially designed filling spout inflates at the beginning of the filling process and seals the valve bag so that no bulk material can escape. After dust-free filling, the bag valve is ultrasonically welded shut. The ultrasonically sealed packaging protects the environment from possible contamination and promotes safety at all stages of the logistics process. It also protects the filled bulk material from product contamination, removal and illegal product theft. Clean filling increases process reliability and reduces wear and tear and production downtime that arises due to cleaning, maintenance and repair works. The SEAL technology can be retrofitted to all existing valve bag HAVER & BOECKER packers purchased after the year 2000.

The effectiveness of the SEAL technology is increased through the use of the new dosing ROTO-LOCK unit. This module is ideal for dosing fine bulk materials into valve bags. The completely closed filling channel enables clean filling without any product leakage. The new dosing unit is maintenance-free. ROTO-PACKER beginning from the year of manufacture 2000 can be retrofitted with this new dosing system. Both the SEAL system and the ROTOLOCK as part of the new VT filling module. The (V) stands for valve bag and the (T) for turbine. The specially designed valve bag filling spout is home to all new technical components. The various ventilation points are automatically regulated and the air volume is matched to the respective product so that manual pressure adjustment is no longer necessary. The new VT filling module can be used modularly for the newly designed ROTOPACKER, INTEGRA and ELEMENTRÂŽ machine families. This enables customers who have several machines at their

disposal to optimize maintenance work and minimize spare parts inventories on site. The need for operator training is also significantly reduced. The new VT filling module also can be easily extended to SEAL technology, i.e. for ultrasonic valve welding. The filling spout is designed for easy maintenance. Changing the complete module is easy to do and all components are easily accessible. Systems that are equipped with the VT module can also be operated with a replacement module while the single module undergoes maintenance under ideal conditions in the maintenance workshop.

Beumer Group unveils new conveyor for clinker transportation The Beumer Group is offering a new belt apron conveyor, which uses a belt instead of a chain as traction element. The equipment also has sealed and overlapping side walls and bottom plates in the cells, which prevent the clinker from exiting the conveyor, but also minimizes the escape of dust. 34

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The belt conveyor allows speeds of up to 0.6 meters per second, and, as it is made of steel wire, extends maintenance intervals, and does not need lubrication, when compared to chains.

EQUIPMENT FLSmidth launches new digital analysis tool for unplanned stoppages

FLSmidth announced they have developed ECS/UptimeGo, a downtime analysis solution to help plant staff identify the issues that interrupt the operation, and prevent unwanted future downtime. Real-time dashboards and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) enable the measurement of the real impact of machine failures interrupting the production. In addition, ECS/UptimeGo provides Pareto charts and the ability to monitor maintenance and reliability KPIs to give

operators the fullest possible picture of a downtime event and its causes. Mikael Lindholm, FLSmidth Chief Digital Officer, says “ECS/UptimeGo shows how FLSmidth uses digital technologies and practical experience to further enhance the productivity of cement and mining customers.” ECS/UptimeGo can be integrated with existing process control systems and can be paired with FLSmidth ECS/

ControlCenter for an automated process to gather all production stoppages. It also features a user-friendly graphic interface that allows operators to have all the information they need to fully document and analyse stoppages. “We’ve designed ECS/UptimeGo with users in mind. This software is intuitive to use and will be quickly mastered by users,” says King Becerra, FLSmidth Global Product Line Manager, Digitalization.

Topzinsky Cement receives new Volvo truck units Topkinsky Cement has received three new Volvo FH-TRUCK units as it continues to replace its cement truck fleet. The new equipment has a capacity of over 30 tons, and is already serving construction sites in Kemerovo, Tomsk and Novosibirsk. The cost of acquisition was RUB 17 million. “Last year, three new Volvo cars replaced the outdated Mercedes tractors. In the next, it is planned to replace another car. By the beginning of the construction season-2020, Topkinsky Cement unifies the entire fleet of cement trucks. Today the company has

13 tractors with semi-trailers. Thus, we guarantee our customers not only consistently high product quality, but

also decent service”, commented Alexey Ospelnikov, Managing Director of Topkinsky Cement.

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JUNE 2019

Flashback NEWS FLOW IN CEMWEEK.COM LAST TWO MONTHS

Russia 17 articles Germany 16 articles

Ukraine 17 articles Turkey 20 articles

United States 18 articles

Pakistan 24 articles

Egypt 44 articles Senegal 16 articles

Philippines 28 articles Indonesia 21 articles

Brazil 17 articles

cw Research agenda / reports The CW Group will be hosting and participating in a number of webinars and conferences. We invite you to join us on-line or in person at the events to discuss our views of the industry. To learn more, please visit https://www.cwgrp.com/research/webinars-and-meetings

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