General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
Executive summary **
In order to reach top-3 among Russian banks, Alfa- Bank should increase its assets up to 4800 billion Rubles. With its current development policy it reaches approximately 2350 billion Rubles. Hence, the goal of our strategy should be 2450 billion Rubles
Proportions in assets, liabilities and loans of corporates and individuals are at the initial level in the strategy. Thus risks and margins are kept the same.
*
*See attachment “Assets and Liabilities” **See attachment “Banks forecast”
2
General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
Alfa bank growth and development strategy should focus on three main courses: expansion, investment banking and retail banking
3
General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
Corporates banking as a part of retail department will experience net assets and deposits increase Impact on Net assets * L e a s i n g
Growth in bank’s liabilities
F a c t o r i n g
537 billion Rubles *See attachment “Factoring” and “Leasing” for details. According to the law of retail sales, the average delay of payment for food and non-food + average arrear equals 70 days
4
General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
Individuals orientated policy results in a rise of deposits by 950 billion Rubles and of loans by 400 billion Rubles •Well organized advertisement programmes based on the concept of AlfaBank stable position on financial marked together with cash back method will give a rise to deposit accumulation. • The programme of presenting depositors ( with account of more than 100 000 Rub) with the second card so that the money cannot be withdrawn will encourage people to use their everyday cards more frequently.
*
*According to sociological research, see Attachments “Poll 1,2”
5
General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
To expand the sphere of its influence in the developing regions Alfa-Bank should acquire banks and open new offices Attractiveness of regions according to investment growth rates analysis
* Most
New offices
attractive Attractive
Choice of banks to merge with
Total gain in net assets by acquisitions
**
*See attachment “Investment spending” for explanations **See attachment “Price of banks”
6
General strategy
Corporate banking
Individual retail banking
Expansion policy
Investment and development
Organization of investment funds, IT development and growth of ATM chains are suggested as further strategies of growth Investment department should specialize on real economy in the situation of current crisis to get stable profits
By developing IT Alfa-Bank will attract new individuals and keep its position of the leader in clients impressions because of new opportunities of analyzing peoples’ needs and preferences.
7
Team Andrey Nurumov andreynurumov@gmail.com Semi-finalist of ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest, 2013
Maria Maricheva marichevamaria@mail.ru Worked as an intern in broker and ship management company
Sergey Kondratyuk s.s.kondratyuk@gmail.com Worked as a tutorvolunteer at an orphanage Prepared a business-plan For a sound-recording studio
Daria Uraeva Dar.uraeva@gmail.com Worked as a shop assistant, the member of Greenpeace association
8
Attachments
Banks Forecast year
Sberbank
VTB
Gazprombank
Россельхозбанк
VTB24
Bank of Moscow
Alfa-‐Bank
2003
1477,5
2004
1600
2005
2513,13
2006
3470
774
713
236
165
355
358
2007
4799
1321
953,5
445,5
308,5
747
483,5
2008
6835
2550
1809
818
610
763
712
2009
7652
2713
1746
973
738
824
659
2010
9145
2822
1874
1080
937
954
880
2011
10975
4209
2485
1466
1215
1333
998
2012
14082
4338
2814
1672
1511
1520
1377
2013
15529
5014
3399
1854
1879
1746
1434
2014 2015 2016
15812,9 17265,4 18717,9
5638,2 6231,7 6825,1
3595,3 3955,5 4315,8
2113,2 2345,5 2577,7
1993,2 2231,6 2470,0
1857,5 2041,3 2225,2
1663,0 1892,0 Linear Regression 2121,0
2017
20170,4
7418,6
4676,0
2810,0
2708,3
2409,0
2350,0
y = 1374,6x - 1305,4
y = 360,24x + 353,09
y = 593,46x + 297,04
Sberbank
R² = 0,959
VTB
R² = 0,9611
16000
6000
4000
12000
4500
3000
8000
3000
2000
4000
1500
1000
0
0
0
2003
2004
2005
y = 238,39x - 152,3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2006
VTB24
R² = 0,9824
2007
y = 232,26x + 22,911
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2006
2013
Россельхозбанк
R² = 0,9464
2000
2000
1800
1500
1500
1350
1000
1000
900
500
500
450
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
y = 155,7x + 162,05
Alfa-Bank
R² = 0,9496 1600
1200
800
400
0 2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
y = 183,83x + 203
R² = 0,9883
0
Gazprombank
R² = 0,9532
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bank of Moscow
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Poll 1 «Would you get an Alfa-Bank card in case of introduction of RZD bouns-program?» (Explained in details) Moscow
Saint-Petersburg
Ekaterenburg Novosibirsk
Yes
55 %
47 %
49 %
52 %
Conditionaly yes
13 %
15 %
7 %
21 %
No
18 %
15 %
12 %
7 %
Doubting
14 %
23 %
32 %
20 %
Focus groups at main railway stations in Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, Ekaterenburg and Novosibirsk were used. Sample size: 100 in M, 75 in S-P, 60 in E, 40 in N. ICEF students research 2013 Weighted average proportion of «yes»
0,43 Lower bound of 95% CI for population proportion
0,33
Weighted average proportion of «yes conditionally»
0,143 Lower bound of 95% CI for population proportion
0,12
Average annual number of RZD clients
100 000 000
Number of potential cardholders
19 500 000
The goal for 4 years - 50% realization
9 750 000 Credit
Number of cards Average value on the card Total Value
Debit 3000000
7000000
45000
30000
135 000 000 000
210 000 000 000
Poll 2 «Would you get an Alfa-Bank card in case of introduction of a new bonus program with a possibility of getting free cinema and theatre tickets, coffee etc?» (Explained in details) Moscow
Saint-Petersburg
Ekaterinburg
Yes
63 %
45 %
40 %
Conditionaly yes
14 %
29 %
19 %
No
11 %
7 %
20 %
Doubting
12 %
19 %
21 %
Focus groups of 18-27 years in Moscow, Ekateringburg and Saint-Petersburg were used. Sample size: 100 in M, 100 in S-P, 75 in Ekaterinburg. ICEF students research 2013 Probability of getting a card
36,5 %
32,125 %
27,375 %
Lower bound of 95% CI for population proportion
0,271
0,230
0,173
3500000
1800000
380000
Young popullation Potential number of cardholders
1 426 425
The goal for 4 years - 70% realization
998 497 Debet
Credit
Number of cards
700000
300000
Average Value on a card
30000,0
45000,0
21 000 000 000
13 500 000 000
Factoring Year
2005
2006
Market Turnover bill rub
155,7 296,8
Main chains turnover
2007
2008
2009
2010
516,4 602,8 361,0 496,3
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 2018 2019
880,0 1480,0 2000,0 2322,3 2748,3 3174,2 3601,4 2031,3 2410,0 Regression forecast
Potential turnover of Alfa-Factoring
609,4
723,0
Real turnover of alfa-factoring
821,5
882,5
963,1 1043,8 1124,7
200,0 Market Turnover bill rub 4000,0
3000,0
2000,0
1000,0
0,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Leasing
Leasing volume (1H 2013)
Passengers transport by air people-km
Railroad length
Germany
45005,0
100,0 %
160000,0
25,1 %
41981,0
19,8 %
UK
44739,6
99,4 %
134000,0
21,0 %
15754,0
7,4 %
France
39010,0
86,7 %
148000,0
23,2 %
29901,0
14,1 %
Russia
19630,8
43,6 %
195775,0
30,7 %
124000,0
58,6 %
Germany
100,0 %
Germany
UK
99,4 %
UK
86,7 %
France
0
0,25
21,0 %
0,5
0,75
1
0
0,078
According to Airbus forecast, Russia will need 921 new planes by the yar 2026 - 78.8 bill dollars
0,155
7,4 %
0,233
14,1 %
France
30,7 %
Russia
19,8 %
UK
23,2 %
France
43,6 %
Russia
Germany
25,1 %
0,31
58,6 %
Russia 0
0,15
0,3
0,45
0,6
Chains
Turnover (млн. руб)
2011
X5
491
454,0
Магнит
448
336,0
Ашан
240
205,0
Дикси
147
102,0
М-Видео
158
107,0
Техносила
57
50,0
Медиа-Маркт
45
35,0
112
84,0
85
70,0
ОКей
116
93,0
Лента
110
98,0
64
54,2
180
120,0
Евросеть
81
69,4
Спортмастер
58
44,7
29
21,6
Леруа Мерлен
70
55,5
Монетка
45
31,9
2536
2031,3
Эльдорадо Связной
Седьмой Континент МЕТРО
36,6
Investment Spending 1990
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
g (2000-‐2006)
2011
g (2006-‐2010)
g (2010-‐2011)
g -‐ coefficient
raise by
Еврейская автономная область
0,4
340
440
842
1417
3198
5461
6059
8541
10426
8039
18811
26626
66 %
44 %
42 %
50 %
13416
Чукотский автономный округ
0,6
701
1743
5013
8729
8614
7409
5006
5594
8286
15001
5419
9007
60 %
19 %
66 %
49 %
4381
Амурская область
2,4
4051
14164
13632
18217
22032
23742
28651
45683
66056
65625
83892
123232
55 %
33 %
47 %
45 %
55256
Республика Хакасия
0,8
1812
2646
2749
4080
6284
10328
19516
17420
13312
12837
22109
38064
51 %
9 %
72 %
44 %
16709
Приморский край
4,4
7332
9922
13452
15271
18614
28499
34233
46988
76970
149813
208209
278378
30 %
59 %
34 %
41 %
113482
Вологодская область
2,3
8593
10333
13923
18271
43109
60635
66101
79211
78448
55794
68569
118031
45 %
3 %
72 %
40 %
47473
Карачаево-Черкесская Республика
0,5
637
1749
2200
2494
3054
6242
7988
9082
11001
10145
9140
14001
61 %
4 %
53 %
40 %
5549
Республика Коми
3,4
17098
21697
22059
25422
34481
50409
74170
63025
83656
109469
112313
192720
29 %
13 %
72 %
38 %
72706
2
8067
16798
27390
26339
85557
110850
137529
122756
152387
118446
135014
181298
74 %
1 %
34 %
37 %
66402
1,7
4881
5141
5132
5950
7812
9610
12715
24119
27242
19791
20970
35470
18 %
20 %
69 %
36 %
12699
1
971
3331
4860
4252
6852
13184
22615
41318
50380
41508
50369
47448
84 %
27 %
-‐6 %
35 %
16588
Сахалинская область Орловская область Чеченская Республика Республика Дагестан
1,4
3479
8089
7957
10794
16653
26966
39584
60713
86938
102189
120653
134927
55 %
33 %
12 %
33 %
44885
Кемеровская область
5,3
17380
20427
23697
28548
56525
80315
91032
115681
152887
110074
155646
225131
35 %
18 %
45 %
32 %
73075
Белгородская область
2,7
9242
14031
10830
15336
22685
35022
52073
83510
104218
73127
96313
132289
37 %
22 %
37 %
32 %
42353
Псковская область
1,4
2446
2791
3135
5614
5905
5547
7603
13679
16472
12717
16695
23909
24 %
27 %
43 %
31 %
7494
Тамбовская область
1,6
2527
3772
5341
8257
11316
14698
19667
30861
42701
48795
53674
65601
41 %
30 %
22 %
31 %
20368
Свердловская область
6,3
25895
30219
40886
53700
75901
91019
133476
187314
242634
200368
266374
371938
32 %
21 %
40 %
31 %
115117
Республика Адыгея
0,3
1264
1510
1916
2559
2268
3603
4088
10973
13275
15874
14036
16708
23 %
49 %
19 %
31 %
5116
Республика Алтай
0,2
615
1130
1290
1187
2149
2914
4080
5967
7591
7169
9522
11802
41 %
25 %
24 %
30 %
3549
Республика Северная Осетия-Алания
0,5
1656
2266
2892
3601
3883
5959
6912
14644
17032
13927
16204
21104
28 %
32 %
30 %
30 %
6298
Архангельская область
3,1
10471
15114
23809
28629
32657
47710
88413
130642
145622
74284
99686
133189
45 %
11 %
34 %
30 %
39653
Томская область
2,7
9304
15632
18298
23383
22641
19401
38011
71640
85954
74679
77598
101927
32 %
25 %
31 %
29 %
29914
Ульяновская область
2,3
4187
5005
6115
6917
11474
14711
21882
34970
48507
49500
47993
61768
33 %
24 %
29 %
29 %
17713
Мурманская область
2,7
7190
10678
9976
13182
14805
20017
24460
26912
46844
41722
38611
55765
24 %
16 %
44 %
28 %
15766
Республика Саха (Якутия)
4,2
15809
21850
25922
30448
34387
48978
56619
119825
156954
192648
130493
165972
24 %
33 %
27 %
28 %
46846
Воронежская область
3,2
8262
10409
15964
19756
21845
28652
38867
65319
94168
94788
132275
152210
30 %
38 %
15 %
28 %
42244
Новосибирская область
4,2
10805
14151
17455
22402
28902
36829
51176
89474
133410
100448
113232
142078
30 %
28 %
25 %
28 %
39375
Брянская область
1,9
2808
3467
4738
6528
6751
8496
12462
21010
25298
26858
41989
48617
29 %
38 %
16 %
28 %
13392
Пензенская область
1,9
3956
6107
6820
8619
11166
15689
25459
44023
52632
43603
45678
57125
37 %
20 %
25 %
28 %
15717
Калинингpадская область
1,2
4571
5743
7741
13699
19746
29959
32596
46192
70812
60463
55877
68958
40 %
18 %
23 %
27 %
18839
2
6162
9873
7086
9515
18326
23629
25945
33630
53231
38036
40622
53078
33 %
17 %
31 %
27 %
14179
Республика Марий Эл
1,1
1706
1945
2938
4360
5886
7722
10692
17204
21408
16576
22304
26628
36 %
24 %
19 %
27 %
7107
Липецкая область
1,9
6265
8410
10985
17200
26575
30312
44565
64707
88089
84317
101600
117790
40 %
24 %
16 %
27 %
31342
Чувашская Республика
1,9
4940
6225
8203
10949
15233
19445
25861
38069
50473
35688
42612
55522
32 %
17 %
30 %
27 %
14734
Республика Тыва
0,4
282
582
652
828
991
1293
1975
2396
3756
5188
7236
7033
41 %
39 %
-‐3 %
26 %
1817
Алтайский край
3,7
6731
8420
10213
13365
15306
21344
29285
42643
55965
45026
54580
70833
28 %
20 %
30 %
26 %
18294
Рязанская область
Республика Бурятия
1,6
3477
5747
6444
10116
8403
9606
15928
19457
23605
23379
33569
41017
33 %
22 %
22 %
26 %
10479
Краснодарский край
5,5
54734
63395
74655
78041
96438
113917
152080
229714
332532
377013
577781
676201
19 %
41 %
17 %
26 %
172498
Курская область
2,1
5425
6646
10413
10112
15198
17864
23241
33523
46752
41183
46093
58244
29 %
21 %
26 %
25 %
14819
Омская область
3
5160
8625
13333
18932
23437
38611
47039
69506
87509
59184
73196
83342
46 %
16 %
14 %
25 %
21054
Хабаровский край
3,1
11605
14876
20095
25116
34592
39166
47281
64544
83675
96974
156439
176654
27 %
36 %
13 %
25 %
44410
Смоленская область
2,2
6701
9072
9721
11427
11315
14371
16029
25178
37562
34633
48833
60564
16 %
35 %
24 %
25 %
15174
Волгоградская область
4,1
11516
16320
19348
22154
29848
42735
39613
64954
88440
75591
78431
100789
24 %
22 %
29 %
25 %
25222
Республика Мордовия
1,4
3066
5299
7456
8811
10098
15123
19597
27414
39254
31968
40778
46570
38 %
23 %
14 %
25 %
11617
Нижегородская область
5,4
15383
18218
27593
37399
52205
64581
89272
133189
207392
201692
192072
221686
34 %
24 %
15 %
25 %
54873
Ленинградская область
2,9
19241
32273
28212
49704
68561
82859
127209
126296
166112
190860
278864
304770
41 %
23 %
9 %
24 %
74010
Иркутская область
5,9
10814
15234
17313
22123
26014
36675
70672
121878
129951
106550
119395
137995
39 %
18 %
16 %
24 %
33482
Красноярский край
6,9
25457
33758
31759
37199
49089
71388
92587
120833
204171
247789
266910
303885
25 %
32 %
14 %
24 %
72064
Владимирская область
1,9
4852
6224
8850
10327
12491
17327
22253
37775
45056
51546
50088
57987
29 %
25 %
16 %
23 %
13556
Самарская область
4,5
23125
32541
39969
46458
60491
67206
88560
137127
148262
111189
164852
198744
25 %
22 %
21 %
23 %
44777
Саратовская область
3,9
13506
14398
17631
20733
24337
40435
46993
56710
83221
67760
80041
100686
24 %
17 %
26 %
22 %
22465
Курганская область
1,7
2522
3210
4108
5879
6059
8628
13916
19043
33437
35021
25573
27955
34 %
23 %
9 %
22 %
6155
Ивановская область
1,4
2058
2470
3176
5121
8997
12068
14734
17416
26051
31956
29961
31009
40 %
21 %
3 %
22 %
6702
Калужская область
1,5
5293
6356
7451
9353
10479
13624
18297
35012
66270
60349
74489
69172
23 %
49 %
-‐7 %
22 %
14951
Российская Федерация
249
1165234
1504712
1762407
2186365
2865014
3611109
4730023
6716222
8781616
7976013
9152096
10776839
26 %
20 %
18 %
21 %
2289307
Камчатский край
1,1
3546
3398
3925
6807
5476
7060
8337
13019
16520
24385
32615
33843
19 %
41 %
4 %
21 %
7171
Республика Татарстан
6,5
44716
56385
56709
70302
99552
139361
160606
214558
273098
277573
328944
386145
25 %
20 %
17 %
21 %
80093
Забайкальский край
2
6810
8766
6905
11453
15660
17402
22421
32057
47445
42271
44825
51557
25 %
22 %
15 %
21 %
10579
Тюменская область
26
200065
267293
304979
349712
393503
420875
564887
775868
1025474
957021
1049693
1295650
19 %
18 %
23 %
20 %
263050
Челябинская область
5
22250
30261
33405
36663
59004
72848
89200
130926
181006
145446
151121
174362
27 %
17 %
15 %
20 %
34794
Ставропольский край
3,5
15865
16622
19549
22175
24681
31706
42038
53665
75051
75279
88635
106664
18 %
21 %
20 %
20 %
21246
Республика Карелия
1,3
6396
8362
9191
9984
13741
15280
18081
19154
26133
18692
22798
29698
19 %
9 %
30 %
20 %
5805
Тверская область
2,2
9555
10687
14353
22094
29791
23845
24326
36384
50222
70047
82618
84478
19 %
36 %
2 %
19 %
16333
Удмуртская Республика
2,5
9904
13603
11477
13068
15540
26876
34312
44565
53536
40450
51148
60899
26 %
13 %
19 %
19 %
11758
Кировская область
2,3
4275
4875
5577
7532
11112
17088
24185
37389
42672
31471
34553
37800
34 %
13 %
9 %
19 %
7164
Астраханская область
1,9
12438
15616
13301
17986
19745
21642
29383
49970
68273
61953
59863
68744
17 %
24 %
15 %
18 %
12649
Республика Башкортостан
5,8
35497
47039
47028
54777
67421
84471
107751
160345
203657
148142
153143
184883
21 %
13 %
21 %
18 %
33604
Оренбургская область
3,4
15005
18229
18097
21018
28606
39993
52953
80353
108868
91268
103648
113004
24 %
21 %
9 %
18 %
20486
Новгородская область
1,3
4767
7956
5008
8976
8795
13996
18954
23919
33934
35617
39454
39098
34 %
21 %
-‐1 %
18 %
6992
Тульская область
2,2
10197
7871
9539
13655
14032
20804
24361
36208
55363
61518
71526
72579
18 %
32 %
1 %
17 %
12575
Республика Калмыкия
0,6
6628
4782
4636
2406
2268
3062
3751
6151
7950
8106
6970
9269
-‐5 %
20 %
33 %
16 %
1506
Московская область
8,5
50729
52701
71787
105176
154969
181260
236931
401143
481617
380061
391809
393043
30 %
18 %
0 %
16 %
63451
14,9
156215
173839
220396
269588
358531
456025
590162
775682
962468
742422
732761
843142
25 %
8 %
15 %
16 %
134618
2,2
8112
13500
13828
17861
26795
42466
37143
44203
55174
57377
72291
69894
32 %
18 %
-‐3 %
16 %
11059
1
952
1548
700
849
1015
3431
3370
7678
3951
6523
7452
4466
47 %
40 %
-‐40 %
16 %
701
Ростовская область
5,3
22361
28876
29049
39376
52124
60145
95629
135150
193713
170845
158490
154914
29 %
16 %
-‐2 %
14 %
22113
Кабардино-Балкарская Республика
0,8
2404
3497
4659
5498
5509
5830
6443
12788
15889
17514
20958
17654
19 %
38 %
-‐16 %
14 %
2428
5
27516
37977
38894
39679
50973
56800
75519
122480
152363
132274
139652
133921
19 %
20 %
-‐4 %
12 %
15560
Костромская область
1,2
4636
4843
6222
5855
12500
14083
11821
13919
16848
11334
15100
15201
23 %
10 %
1 %
11 %
1690
г. Санкт-Петербург
5,9
35891
53169
76046
111678
117762
156854
193684
303448
372637
334074
401537
293586
33 %
22 %
-‐27 %
10 %
28187
г. Москва Ярославская область Республика Ингушетия
Пермский край
Assets and Liabilities
2013
2017
Assets Assets
Liabilities + Equity
Liabilities+Equity Alfa-Bank
Individuals
212
14,8 % Individuals
342,0
23,8 % Individuals
Corporates
855,0
59,6 % Corporates
433,0
30,2 % Corporations
25,6 % Interbank loans
229,0
16,0 % Other
Other
135,0
Equity
192,0
Bonds
103,0
Others
367
Assets
1434,0
Total
1434,0
Aquired
Alfa-Bank at 2017
Alfa-Bank
Aquired
Alfa-Bank at 2017
400,0
437,0
837,0
17,4 % Individuals
950,0
266,0
1216
25,3 %
2308,0
704,0
3012,0
62,8 % Corporates
1033,0
507,0
1540
32,1 %
461,0
490,0
951,0
19,8 % Interbank loans
427,0
311,0
738
15,4 %
3169,0
1631,0
4800,0
Other
196,0
198,0
394
8,2 %
13,4 %
Equity
352,0
253,0
605
12,6 %
7,2 %
Bonds
212,0
95,0
307
6,4 %
Total
3170
1630
4800
9,4 % Assets
Price of Banks We bought 100% of Unicredit because it is untimely owned - one person owns 100% shares.
Unicredit is owned by an Austrian company. In the We vaulted Uniicredit by comparing it with Absolute past time foreign entrepreneurs tend to leave Russian Bank, bought some time ago, which had been also market, Additionally, the real position of Unicredit is owned by a foreign company. not a good one, in foreigners’ opinion.
To be bought at P = 75 billion rub
We bought 60% of Vostochny Express Bank because three main shareholders own approximately 60% of the company. Totally there are 3000 shareholders and buying the whole company is hard.
Vostochny Express has a great system of region banks with a complementary portfolio - a lot of individuals’ assets. It has a great position in the Far East, which develops and growth very fast. It will be bought with a premium to its fair value, if taking into account perspectives of development.
To be bought at P=25 billion rub (60% shares)
Assuming WACC = 0.2, equity = 30,6 bill rub, using DCF, which may underestimate the price in a development market. P(bank) = 32 bill. Including premia for development, P = 41,6 bill.
banki.ru was used as a source of information