Pete Simi’s inquiry into extremist groups is just one way that CU researchers are examining the impact of the crisis

COVID-19 RESEARCH ROUNDUP

FINDING CLUES AMID THE HATE

BY DENNIS ARP

Pete Simi’s inquiry into extremist groups is just one of the ways Chapman researchers are examining the impact of this crisis.

Long before there was a COVID-19, Pete Simi began tracking the spread of a different viral contagion – racist hate speech. Now, as the novel coronavirus pandemic has expanded globally, white supremacists and others are using this moment to promote their agenda of fear and violence, the Chapman University sociologist says.

Simi is just one of many Chapman faculty researchers who have pivoted in their inquiry to unearth insights about this virus and its voluminous ripple effects. Among the other researchers studying this historic moment are computational and data scientists who use satellite images to help determine whether stay-at-home orders are working, and two investigators who are mining big data sets to identify key risk factors as well as how the virus spreads.

For Simi, it’s nothing new to see hate groups try to foster unrest and recruit new members in a time of crisis. Over the years, he has learned just how ugly and resourceful extremists can be. Simi has learned a lot by conducting more than 100 interviews with a wide range of adults who are former members of white supremacist groups. The 20,000 pages of life histories he and his Chapman research team have compiled provide a window to the origins of racist hate.

“In various ways, we see COVID-19 stoking this old flame of bigotry,” says Simi, an associate professor of sociology and co-author of the book “American Swastika: Inside the White Power Movement’s Hidden Spaces of Hate.” “In various ways, we see COVID-19 stoking this old flame of bigotry,” says Pete Simi, an associate professor of sociology and co-author of the book “American Swastika: Inside the White Power Movement’s Hidden Spaces of Hate.”

SOCIAL MEDIA HELPS DRIVE AN ‘INFO-DEMIC’

One way hate groups seek to capitalize is by spreading “immense amounts of propaganda,” on websites like Gab and Telegram, which present themselves as champions of free speech but in practice are hotbeds of extremism, Simi says.

Much of the messaging these days centers on anti-Asian themes and imagery. No wonder, then, that as many as 100 physical attacks a day target Asian Americans, said Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus. And yet, in the face of such hate, there are also examples of a positive response.

On Twitter, people are sharing their actions to aid Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders as part of a #stopaapihate campaign. In addition, the group Asian Americans Advancing Justice is offering Bystander Intervention Training.

“So in terms of response, there are some positive things today,” Simi says.

LEADERSHIP AND HEALING

FROM SPACE, A VIEW OF QUARANTINE COMPLIANCE

Photos, video and other media tools have provided a picture of life on the ground during lockdowns necessitated by the novel coronavirus pandemic. Now Chapman scientists are giving us a view from space to help us understand whether stay-at-home orders are succeeding.

Remote earth observations using European Space Agency satellite imagery allow the scientists to monitor how countries are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. By tracking big declines in nitrogen oxide emissions over regions where activity is restricted, the scientists can frame the scope of change in those nations.

LEVELS OF NITROGEN OXIDE TELL A STORY

When governors and mayors started issuing stay-at-home orders, earth systems scientists at Chapman started studying atmospheric images to see if directives for people to stay home are affecting nitrogen oxide emissions. Early images indicated strong compliance in Los Angeles and New York. If satellite images displayed patches of dark blue, it meant that emissions were down as companies closed plants, people drove less and general activity was reduced to slow spread of the virus.

Among others, policymakers in Egypt received data from the Chapman lab as they decided what actions to take.

“If people are not responding to calls for them to stay at home, we will see it in our data,” said Hesham El-Askary, a professor at Chapman University whose Earth Systems Science Data Solutions lab is collecting and interpreting the satellite data.

KEY COVID-19 RISK FACTORS REVEALED

As a specialist in experimental economics, Professor Steven Gjerstad typically uses big data sets to evaluate things like housing bubbles. Now he and Chapman colleague Andrea Molle are applying their numbercrunching skills to track the spread of the coronavirus, estimate the number of cases regions will get and pinpoint the most important risk factors.

The Dallas Morning News and Orange County Register are among the news outlets that have turned to them for insights.

Early in the outbreak, it was Gjerstad and Molle who used data from China and Italy to determine that age wasn’t nearly as important a risk factor as were comorbidity concerns such as heart disease, hypertension and diabetes.

“Our evidence indicates that age is a minor risk compared to pre-existing conditions,” they said in a report on their findings.

In fact, those with comorbidity conditions are actually about 10.5 times as likely to die as those who are healthy, the professors said. “It’s an extremely important finding, not only because it allows for better decisions in the triage phase but also because in the following phases up to the production and distribution of a vaccine, it is essential to make decisions aimed at protecting those who are the most at-risk,” the professors said in an article for the news site Start Insight.

A satellite image interpreted by Chapman earth systems scientists shows a steep drop in nitrogen oxide emissions in and around Los Angeles, indicating that residents were observing stay-at-home orders.

“If people are not responding to calls for them to stay at home, we will see it in our data,”