Charles Hunter Essay 2
04/11/2012 Energy, Technology, and Policy Global Climate Change
Global climate change is a topic which many believe exists and others do not. Predicting this change has become a wicked foe to scientists. There are many scenarios that are envisioned for the future of the Earth. Some are optimistic; humanity will be able to reduce its carbon emissions and ring in a future filled with renewable energies while continuously decommissioning its reliability on fossil fuels. Others, a more sobering view on climate change; humanity has failed to reduce its carbon emissions and renewable energies have not become significant energy sources to outweigh the dwindling reserves of fossil fuels with the necessity to adapt to this new climate or utilize geo-engineering and risk unforeseen consequences. The amount and speed of future climate change will ultimately depend on: If greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations increase, decrease, or stay the same. How the environment, temperature, precipitation, seal levels, and etc., responds to the changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. How natural influences affect the climate and change the atmosphere. There are several scenarios for fossil fuel consumption in the 21st century. There is however one thing which is certain; fossil fuel consumption will rise until renewable gain a significant foothold or the price for fossil fuels becomes large enough to outweigh any benefit from use. The EIA has predicted fossil fuel consumption up to 2035 shown in the figure below.
Charles Hunter Essay 2
04/11/2012 Energy, Technology, and Policy
Figure 1: EIA Energy Consumption Forecast By 2035 the U.S. will still be heavily dependent on fossil fuels and the rest of the world as well. The EIA predicts that coal consumption, which is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel, will increase by 3 percent by 2035. Petroleum product consumption will rise by 14 percent and natural gas consumption by 16 percent. Utilizing unconventional oil, as well as conventional oil, coal and natural gas will aid in the longevity of fossil fuels into the future. New technology will be created to lower the cost of processing the unconventional oil as well as the drilling, processing, and distributing of natural gas, conventional oil, and coal. The U.S. will continue to create energy independence by decreasing the amount of imports and increasing domestic production. The EIA predicts the U.S. will be able to produce 82 percent of its energy requirements in 2035.
Charles Hunter Essay 2
04/11/2012 Energy, Technology, and Policy
By 2050 the consumption of fossil fuels will begin to decrease and by the end of the 21st century consumption levels will be lower than year 2012 levels and less than half of the total energy consumption. The rise of renewable energy sources will be accountable for the decline in fossil fuels, as well as, the governmental fear of civil unrest due to enormous energy prices that would occur relying on fossil fuels. New technologies will continue to improve upon the renewable energy sources from today, 2012, and some unforeseen renewable resources may be utilized. Conservation will aid in the reduction of fossil fuels but overall is not a significant factor in the reduction. People will be more aware of the energy they are consuming but will not revamp their lifestyle to save the environment. There are also several scenarios which estimate the trajectory of carbon emissions throughout the century. In the scenario above fossil fuel consumption increases through 2040; this is a direct increase in the amount of carbon emissions related to those products. Several factors will affect carbon emission: population, economic growth, energy demand, and the carbon intensity of energy. This is also a worldly problem; every country is responsible for carbon emissions into the atmosphere. The EIA is projecting that annual carbon emissions will remain equivalent to what they are today. The main factors driving the annual carbon emission forecast fall under fuel markets, technology, and policy. In the future oil prices will continue to increase and natural gas prices will decrease if the estimated reserves come to fruition. Oil prices will drive consumers to purchase more fuel efficient vehicles which will simultaneously reduce carbon emissions. Power producers will switch to natural gas rather than coal because of the lowered prices. This is in part due to greater efforts in automobile, air, and carbon pollution standards to reduce carbon emissions. Coal plants will receive greater incentives to replace the aging plants with newer
Charles Hunter Essay 2
04/11/2012 Energy, Technology, and Policy
cleaner burning power plants. Technology improvements will also aid in the reduction of carbon emissions. Wind and solar renewable energy sources will become larger and more efficient energy providers. The EIA estimates are shown in the figure below.
The downside to the annual estimate of carbon emissions however, is that the continued output of present levels of carbon dioxide will still have detrimental effects to the atmosphere. In this scenario the carbon emissions increases linearly each year by remaining at current annual emission levels. This linear increase would mean that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to increase from around 400 ppm to nearly 650 ppm by 2100. These numbers still contain uncertainty in regards to the future of carbon removal from the atmosphere and changes in the Earth’s biosphere and climate system which can have a significant impact on the estimates.
Charles Hunter Essay 2
04/11/2012 Energy, Technology, and Policy
The estimated level of carbon dioxide emissions may have a detrimental effect on the future of the Earth. In the foregoing scenario the risks warrant pro-active mitigation efforts to reduce the potential severity of global climate change due to the carbon emissions. Without any effort for climate mitigation global warming may occur. If global warming does occur the world may have to adapt to several undesirable effects. A global rise in temperature of just a few degrees could drastically change humanities way of life or create unsurvivable conditions. There may be drastic reduction in rainfall leading to crop failure and desertification of land. Sea levels could rise up to dangerous levels increasing river volume. Overall there is absolutely no way that global warming can be allowed to occur. Several steps can be taken to mitigate the amount of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. A consensus must be reached that global warming is a real problem and not just some scientific hoax. Nothing can be accomplished without realizing there is a problem. Engineers will play a large role by increasing the efficiency of carbon based technology and lowering the carbon intensity of all sources of energy. The world population will need to reduce their consumption of high carbon intensive energy resources. Policies must be enacted to target emission reduction and increase the use of renewable energy. Renewable energies must continue to improve and become widespread throughout the world. The cost for all of these tactics is large, but necessary if the only outcome is destruction. If all else fails geo-engineering is a viable option that would be necessary to save humanity. Humanity can then learn to adapt to the consequences of geoengineering and strive on into the new world of the future.