Api580 chapter 11

11 Assessing Consequences of Failure 失效的后果评估

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Contents 11 Assessing Consequences of Failure 11.1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis 11.2 Types of Consequence Analysis 11.3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis 11.4 Volume of Fluid Released 11.5 Consequence Effect Categories 11.6 Determination of Consequence of Failure

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http://www.northnews.cn/2013/1122/1455937_30.shtml

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11.1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis 后果分析简介 11.1.1 General 总则 The consequence analysis in an RBI program is performed to provide discrimination between equipment items on the basis of the significance of a potential failure. The consequence analysis should be a repeatable, simplified, credible estimate of what might be expected to happen if a failure were to occur in the equipment item being assessed. The COF analysis should be performed to estimate the consequences that occur due to a failure mode typically resulting from an identified damage mechanism(s) (see Section 9).

COF分析由于故障模式发生的后果进行估计,RBI程序提供设备之间,识别潜在故 障的比重. Consequence should typically be categorized as:通常应归类为 a) safety and health impacts,安全和健康的影响 b) environmental impacts,对环境的影响 c) economic impacts. 经济影响

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Consequence should typically be categorized as: 通常应归类为  safety and health impacts,安全和健康的影响  environmental impacts,对环境的影响  economic impacts. 经济影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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In general, an RBI program will be managed by plant inspectors or inspection engineers, who will normally manage risk by managing the POF with inspection and maintenance planning. They will not normally have much ability to modify the COF. On the other hand, management and process safety personnel may desire to manage the consequence side of the risk equation. Numerous methods for modifying the COF are mentioned in Section 14. For all of these users, the consequence analysis is an aid in establishing a relative risk ranking of equipment items. The consequence analysis should address all credible failure modes to which the equipment item is susceptible. 一般上, RBI程序一旦执行, 是由检验员或检验工程师着手管理. 通常, 通过与检查 和维护计划, 管理风险 POF (故障概率) 部分. 他们一般不授权修改 COF (失效后 果), 而是前期, 通过设施管理和工艺安全人员做相关的工作. (考试题) POF COF

Managed by Inspector & Inspection Engineer Managed by Management & Process Safety Personnel.

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POF Managed by Inspector & Inspection Engineer (考试题)

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COF Managed by Management & Process Safety Personnel.

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More or less complex and detailed methods of consequence analysis can be used, depending on the desired application for the assessment. The consequence analysis method chosen should have a demonstrated ability to provide the required level of discrimination between higher and lower consequence equipment items. 简单或复杂的后果分析一样都能运用, 选用的运用方法应该是个有能力分辨设备故 障后果的高低顺序的方法.

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11.1.2 Loss of Containment 溶液流失 The consequence of loss of containment is generally evaluated as loss of fluid to the external environment. The consequence effects for loss of containment can be generally considered to be in the following categories: 溶液流失一般定义为 – 溶液损失到外部环境, 导致的后果有 1.

2.

3.

4.

safety and health impact, 安全和健康的影响 environmental impact, 对环境的影响 production losses, 生产损失 maintenance and reconstruction costs. 维修和重建费用

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11.1.3 Other Functional Failures Although RBI is mainly concerned with loss of containment failures, other functional failures could be included in an RBI study if a user desired. Other functional failures could include: 此规范主要是针对溶液流失, 在用户要求下也可以覆盖下列功能故障 a) functional or mechanical failure of internal components of pressure containing equipment (e.g. column trays, demister mats, coalescer elements, distribution hardware, etc.);内部组件的功能性或机械故障 b) heat exchanger tube failure; 换热器管故障 c) pressure-relief device failure; 减压装置故障 d) rotating equipment failure (e.g. seal leaks, impeller failures, etc.). 旋转设备故障 NOTE There may be situations where a heat exchanger tube failure could lead to a loss of containment of the heat exchanger or ancillary equipment. These would typically involve leakage from a high-pressure side to a low-pressure side of the exchanger and subsequent breach of containment of the lowpressure side. 换热器管故障, 可能因管内压与管外压差, 带来溶液串通, 导致溶 液流失.

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These other functional failures are usually covered within RCM programs and therefore are not covered in detail in this document. 其他的功能性故障通常在 RCM涵盖范围内, 这文件不包含.

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11.2 Types of Consequence Analysis 后果分析的类型 11.2.1 General 总则 The following paragraphs discuss different approaches to the determination of consequences of failure. For the purposes of the discussion, these approaches have been categorized as “qualitative” or “quantitative.” However, it should be recognized that “qualitative” and “quantitative” are the end points of a continuum rather than distinctive approaches (see Figure 3). 归类为“定性”或“定量” 或 两者之间.

Table 3—Six Level Table

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11.2.2 Qualitative Consequences Analysis 定性后果分析 A qualitative method involves identification of the units, systems or equipment, and the hazards present as a result of operating conditions and process fluids.

On the basis of expert knowledge and experience, the consequences of failure (safety, health, environmental and financial impacts) can be estimated separately for each unit, system, equipment group or individual equipment item.

For a qualitative method, a consequences category (such as “A” through “E” or “high,” “medium,” or “low”) is typically assigned for each unit, system, grouping or equipment item. It may be appropriate to associate a numerical value, such as cost (see 11.3.3), with each consequence category. 评估结果可以以高低类别或数值(如成本)表达. 专家的知识和经验的基础上评估故障后果(安全/健康/环境和财务影响)

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故障后果评估的结果可以以高低类别或数值(如成本)表达.

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11.2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis 定量后果分析 A quantitative method involves using a logic model depicting combinations of events to represent the effects of failure on people, property, the business and the environment. Quantitative models usually contain one or more standard failure scenarios or outcomes and calculate COF based on: 定量后果分析, 使用一个逻辑模型描绘事件的组合来表示故障对人员, 财产, 业务 和环境的影响.定量模型通常包含一个或多个标准的故障情况或分析结果

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COF based on; 故障后果基于  type of process fluid in equipment; 设备工艺流体的类型  state of the process fluid inside the equipment (solid, liquid, or gas); 工艺流体的状态(液态,气态,含固态等)  key properties of process fluid (molecular weight, boiling point, auto-ignition temperature, ignition energy, density, flammability, toxicity, etc.); 工艺流体的主要特性  process operating variables such as temperature and pressure; 操作变量,例如温度和压力  mass of inventory available for release in the event of a leak; 泄漏时可释放的质量

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 failure mode and resulting leak size;失效模式和由此产生的泄漏大小  state of fluid after release in ambient conditions (solid, gas, or liquid). 在环境条件释放后的状态(液态,气态,含固态等) Results of a quantitative analysis are usually numeric. Consequence categories may be also used to organize more quantitatively assessed consequences into manageable groups. 定量分析的结果通常是数字. 以类别表达后果,也可以运用来进行设备组合管理

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11.3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis 后果分析单位 11.3.1 General 总则 Different types of consequences may be described best by different measures.

The RBI analyst should consider the nature of the hazards present and select appropriate units of measure. However, the analyst should bear in mind that the resultant consequences should be comparable, as much as possible, for subsequent risk prioritization and inspection planning. 产生的后果应具有可比性, 以便执行后续风险优先级和检查规划运作.

The following provide some units of measure of consequence that can be used in an RBI assessment. 评估故障结果的一些估量有     

Safety Cost Affected Area Environmental Damage Other Considerations

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评估故障结果的一些估量有     

Safety Cost Environmental Damage Affected Area Other Considerations

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11.3.2 Safety Safety consequences are often expressed as a numerical value or characterized by a consequence category associated with the severity of potential injuries that may result from an undesirable event. For example, safety consequences could be expressed based on the severity of an injury (e.g. fatality, serious injury, medical treatment, first aid) or expressed as a category linked to the injury severity (e.g. A through E).

An approach for assigning monetary values to safety and health consequences is included in API 581. However, the FAA has published material on this topic.

If it is necessary to convert safety and health consequences into monetary units for subsequent risk ranking or analysis, the analyst should document the basis for the values assigned. 安全后果往往以一个数值表现, 然而用经济价值作为表达方式也被 API 581 采纳. 用经济价值作为表达方式必须分析应该记录分配的值的基础.美国联邦航空管理 局有出刊相关的主题.

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安全后果用经济价值作为表达方式 也被 API 581采纳.

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11.3.3 Cost 费用,价值 Cost is commonly used as an indicator of potential consequences.

Consequences may be expressed in relative monetary units (e.g. dollars) to the maximum extent practical with an understanding that the numbers are typically not absolute.

For example, low, moderate and high categories could be assigned values of $100,000, $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 respectively. This will permit adding the different consequences of a single event and facilitate comparisons of risk from one process unit to another. Potential injuries and fatalities may be considered separately, with a maximum acceptable probability of occurrence assigned. It is possible, although not always credible, to assign costs to almost any type of consequence. 虽然不是完全可靠, 几乎任何类型的后果与成本来分配挂钩是可能的.

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Typical consequences that can be expressed in “cost” include: 可以用 “费用” 来表达的故障后果有以下 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

production loss due to rate reduction or downtime, 由于或停机生产利率降低损失 deployment of emergency response equipment and personnel, 部署的应急设备和人员 lost product from a release, 流失产品经济损失 degradation of product quality, 产品质量的劣化 replacement or repair of damaged equipment,更换或维修损坏的设备 property damage offsite, 外场产业损坏 spill/release cleanup onsite or offsite, 内外场溢出/释放物清理 business interruption costs (lost profits),业务中断成本(利润损失) loss of market share, 失去市场份额 injuries or fatalities, 受伤或死亡 land reclamation, 土地改造 litigation, 诉讼, fines, 罚金 goodwill. 企业信誉

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The above list is reasonably comprehensive, but in practice some of these costs are neither practical nor necessary to use in an RBI assessment. 上面的列表是相当全面的, 但在实践中有些 用来代表故障后果的 “成本($) / 费用” 既不现实也无必要.

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Cost generally requires fairly detailed information to fully assess. It is possible, although not always practical, to assign a monetary value to almost any type of consequence. The cost associated with most of the consequences listed above can be calculated using standard methods. Information such as product value, capacity, equipment costs, repair costs, personnel resources, and environmental damage may be difficult to derive, and the manpower required to perform a complete financial-based consequence analysis may be limited depending on the complexity of the relationship of failure to lost opportunity cost. However, expressing consequences in monetary units has the advantage of permitting a direct comparison of the various categories of consequences on a common basis.

Therefore, it is often better to provide approximations or “best estimates” than to use only verbal descriptions (see 11.2.2). 虽然很多时候, 货币价值不能很完善来表达故障后果, 货币单位表达故障后果具有, 允许不同价值额来类别的后果, 使被评估设备,能在同一个基础上直接比较拥有很大 的优势.

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Instead of determining point values or unique ranges of economic loss for each consequence scenario, consequences may be placed into categories that have pre-defined ranges. Table 3 provides an example of this. The ranges may be adjusted for the unit or plant to be considered. For example, $10,000,000 may be a catastrophic loss for a small company, but a large company may consider only losses greater than $1,000,000,000 to be catastrophic. 表3, 用类别代号或描述来反映经济价值. 不同的企业的同样代号有不同的价值额.

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11.3.4 Affected Area 受影响的区域 Affected area is also used to describe potential consequences in the field of risk assessment. As its name implies, affected area represents the amount of surface area of the plot plan that experiences an effect (toxic dose, thermal radiation, explosion overpressure, etc.) greater than a pre-defined limiting value. Based on the thresholds chosen, anything (i.e. personnel, equipment, environment) within the area will be affected by the consequences of the hazard.

In order to rank consequences according to affected area, it is typically assumed that equipment or personnel at risk are evenly distributed throughout the unit. A more rigorous approach would assign a population density with time or equipment value density to different areas of the unit. 受影响的划分是评估区域内人员, 设备, 环境会受到危险的后果. 为了根据受影响 地区排名后果, 它通常假定设备或人员的风险是均匀分布在整个单元. 更加的深 入分析如果需要的话,能把设备集中区域,人员分布,时间/人员分布动态,等等,作为 考虑项.

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The units for affected area consequence (square feet or square meters) do not readily translate into our everyday experiences and thus there is some reluctance to use this measure. It has, however, several features that merit consideration. The affected area approach has the characteristic of being able to compare toxic and flammable consequences by relating to the physical area impacted by a release. A drawback for area consequences is that it does not include the business impact of failure, which can often be the largest portion of total consequence. 影响区划分具有很好的有毒和易燃释放的影响的物理区域, 后果比较的。然而运 用受影响区域划分,在行业上受到一定的阻力, 因为它不包括故障后果对业务的影 响(经济损失), 而这往往是总结果占最大份额.

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11.3.5 Environmental Damage 环境损害 Environmental consequence measures are the least developed among those currently used for RBI. A common unit of measure for environmental damage is not available in the current technology, making environmental consequences difficult to assess. Typical parameters used that provide an indirect measure of the degree of environmental damage are: 环境损失时在RBI里最为缺少开发的 领域, 也没有共同认同的计量方法. 典型提供环境破坏的程度的参数间接量度有 a) b) c) d)

acres of land affected per year; 每年受影响亩地 miles of shoreline affected per year; 每年海岸线受到影响英里数 number of biological or human-use resources consumed; 消耗的生物或人类使用的资源数量 the portrayal of environmental damage almost invariably leads to the use of cost, in terms of dollars per year, for the loss and restoration of environmental resources. 环境破坏的写照几乎总是导致使用年度成本(对环境资源的丧失和恢复)

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11.3.6 Categorizing Safety, Health, and Environmental Consequences 安全,健康和环境后果分类 Examples of placing safety, health and environmental consequences into categories is provided in Table 4 and Table 5. Table 4 shows three levels, while Table 5 shows six levels. In practice, other numbers of levels could be used. 表4和表5中提供安全,健康和环境后果分类 (其他等级数可以按照个别加减) Table 4 - Three Level Safety, Health and Environmental Consequence Categories

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Table 5—Six Level Safety, Health and Environmental Consequence Categories

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11.3.7 Other Considerations 其他考虑事项 The following should be considered in addition to the consequences described above. It is usually possible to develop a monetary estimate for these considerations: 其他考虑事项, 通常是可以货币估计这些考虑; a) loss of reputation leading to loss of market share, 名誉损失, 导致市场份额的损失 b) future insurability, 再保金的变动 c) regulatory actions curtailing production or raising costs. 法定监管措施削减生产或增加成本

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11.4 Volume of Fluid Released 流体释放体积 In most consequence evaluations, a key element in determining the magnitude of the consequence is the volume of fluid released. The volume released is typically derived from a combination of the following items below. 大多数故障结果的评估, 在确定故障结果的幅度的一个关键因素是流体释放的体积 a) Volume of Fluid Available for Release—Volume of fluid in the piece of equipment and connected equipment items. In theory, this is the amount of fluid between isolation valves that can be quickly closed . 可以快速关闭隔离阀之间的流体量 b) Failure mode. 失效模式 c) Leak rate. 泄漏率 d) Detection and isolation time. 检测和隔离时间

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In some cases, the volume released will be the same as the volume available for release. Usually, there are safeguards and procedures in place so that the breach of containment can be isolated and the volume released will be less than the volume available for release.通常, 有保障措施和程序到位使泄漏可以被 孤立以减少流体释放体积.

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The cost of the lost fluid may be calculated by: 丢失的流体的成本可以通过计算 Lost Fluid Cost = Volume of Fluid Lost × Value of the Fluid per Unit Volume 失去了流体成本=体积流体的失落×每单位体积的流体价值

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11.5 Consequence Effect Categories 故障结果影响分类 11.5.1 General 总则 The failure of the pressure boundary and subsequent release of fluids may cause safety, health, environmental, facility and business damage. The RBI analyst should consider the nature of the hazards and assure that appropriate factors are considered for the equipment, system, unit, or plant being assessed. Regardless of whether a more qualitative or quantitative analysis is used, the major factors to consider in evaluating the consequences of failure include: 失效后果评估的主要考虑因素评估包括 a) b) c) d) e) f)

flammable events (fire and explosion), 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸) toxic releases,有毒物质排放 releases of other hazardous fluids, 其他危险液体排放 environmental consequences, 环境后果 production consequences (business interruption),生产的后果(业务中断) maintenance and reconstruction impact. 维修改造的影响

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11.5.6 Production (Business Interruption) Consequences 生产 (营业中断) 的后果 ……………….Business interruption consequences; a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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11.5.2 Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸) Flammable events occur when both a leak and ignition occur. The ignition could be through an ignition source or autoignition. Flammable events can cause damage in two ways: (1) thermal radiation and (2) blast overpressure. (考试题) Most of the damage from thermal effects tends to occur at close range, but blast effects can cause damage over a larger distance from the blast center. Following are typical categories of fire and explosion events: 易燃事件可能是通过点火源或自燃, 以下是火灾和爆炸事件的典型类别 a) b) c) d) e)

vapor cloud explosion,油气云爆炸 pool fire,池火 jet fire,喷射火 flash fire, 闪火 boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

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The flammable events consequence is typically derived from a combination of the following elements:易燃事件的后果通常来自以下元素的组合： inherent tendency to ignite, 内在点燃趋势 volume of fluid released,流体的体积泄露 ability to flash to a vapor,急骤蒸发为蒸汽 possibility of auto-ignition,自动点火的可能性 effects of higher pressure or higher temperature operations, 更高的压力或更高的温度下操作的影响 f) engineered safeguards, 工程保障 g) personnel and equipment exposed to damage. 人员和设备受到损坏 a) b) c) d) e)

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Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

http://www.sozogaku.com/fkd/en/cfen/CC1300001.html

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Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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11.5.3 Toxic Releases 有毒物质释放 Toxic releases, in RBI, are only addressed when they affect personnel (site and public). These releases can cause effects at greater distances than flammable events. Unlike flammable releases, toxic releases do not require an additional event (e.g. ignition, as in the case of flammables) to cause personnel injuries. The RBI program typically focuses on acute toxic risks that create an immediate danger, rather than chronic risks from low-level exposures. The toxic consequence is typically derived from the following elements: 此风险评估通常着重于建立即时危险的急性中毒性风险, 而不是从少 量接触慢性风险.有毒的后果通常是源于以下元素 a) volume of fluid released and toxicity, 释放和毒性的液量 b) ability to disperse under typical process and environmental conditions, 在典型的过程和环境条件下分散能力 c) detection and mitigation systems, 检测和缓解系统 d) population in the vicinity of the release. 释放点附近人口分布

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此风险评估通常着重于建立即时危险的急性中毒性风险, 而不是日常操作从少量接 触慢性风险

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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

11.5.4 Releases of Other Hazardous Fluids 其他危险液体释放 Other hazardous fluid releases are of most concern in RBI assessments when they affect personnel. These materials can cause thermal or chemical burns if a person comes in contact with them. Common fluids, including steam, hot water, acids, and caustics can have a safety consequence of a release and should be considered as part of an RBI program.其他危险液体释放是RBI最值 得关注的评估项,接触这些材料会引起热或化学灼伤. 常见的其他危险液体, 包括 蒸汽, 热水,酸和苛性碱

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Generally, the consequence of this type of release is significantly lower than for flammable or toxic releases because the affected area is likely to be much smaller and the magnitude of the hazard is less. Key parameters in this evaluation are as follows. 通常, 这种类型的释放的结果比易燃或有毒物质排放显著较低, 因为受影响的区域 很可能较小所导致的危险的幅度也小.评估主要参数如下 a) Volume of fluid released. 释放流体的体积 b) Personnel density in the area. 区域人员密度 c) Type of fluid and nature of resulting injury. 流体以及由此产生的损伤性质的类型 d) Safety systems (e.g. personnel protective clothing, showers, etc.). 安全系统(如人员的防护服, 淋浴等) e) Environmental damage if the spill is not contained. 泄漏带来的环境损害 f) Equipment Damage - For some reactive fluids, contact with equipment or piping may result in aggressive deterioration and failure. 设备损坏 – 泄漏液体 和设备接触带来的腐蚀加速等.

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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

11.5.5 Environmental Consequences 环境后果 Environmental consequences are an important component to any consideration of overall risk in a processing plant. The RBI program typically focuses on acute and immediate environmental risks, rather than chronic risks from low level emissions. The environmental consequence is typically derived from the following elements: 通常侧重于急性和即时环境风险.而不是从较低排放量 长期风险 a) b) c) d) e)

volume of fluid released; 流体的体积释放 ability to flash to vapor; 蒸发的能力 leak containment safeguards; 泄漏围堵的保障 environmental resources affected; 影响环境资源 regulatory consequence (e.g. citations for violations, fines, potential shutdown by authorities). 监管后果

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Liquid releases may result in contamination of soil, groundwater, and/or open water. Gaseous releases are equally important but more difficult to assess since the consequence typically relates to local regulatory constraints and the penalty for exceeding those constraints.液体释放可能会导致土壤, 地下水和/或开放水域 的污染.气体释放也同样重要, 但更难以评估其后果通常涉及到当地的监管约束和 惩罚超过某些限制.

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The consequences of environmental damage are best understood by cost. The cost may be calculated as follows:环境破坏的后果由成本最好的理解 Environmental Cost = Cost for Cleanup + Fines + Other Costs 环境成本=成本为清理+罚款+其它费用 The cleanup cost will vary depending on many factors. Some key factors are listed as follows.清理费用将取决于许多因素而变化 a) Type of Spill—Aboveground, belowground, surface water etc. 外溢类型 - 地上,地下,地表水等 b) Type of liquid. 液体型 c) Method of clean-up. 清理方法 d) Volume of spill. 泄漏量 e) Accessibility and terrain at the spill location. 泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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The fine component cost will depend on the regulations and laws of the applicable local and federal jurisdictions. The other cost component would include costs that may be associated with the spill such as litigation from landowners or other parties. This component is typically specific to the locale of the facility. 罚款项 - 取决于当地和联邦司法管辖区的法律和法规 其他成本组成将包括可能, 如从土地所有者或其他人提起诉讼的与泄漏相关费用. 这个构成要素, 通常是备的区域而别.

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11.5.6 Production (Business Interruption) Consequences 生产 (营业中断) 的后果 Production consequences generally occur with any loss of containment of the process fluid and often with a loss of containment of a utility fluid (water, steam, fuel gas, acid, caustic, etc.). These production consequences may be in addition to or independent of flammable, toxic, hazardous or environmental consequences. The main production consequences for RBI are financial. The financial consequences could include the value of the lost process fluid and business interruption. The cost of the lost fluid can be calculated fairly easily by multiplying the volume released by the value of the fluid lost. Calculation of the business interruption is more complex. 主要生产的后果是经济损失(能包括失去的工艺流体和业务中断的价值).

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The selection of a specific method depends on:具体方法的选择取决于 a) the scope and level of detail of the study, 研究的目的与细节深度 b) availability of business interruption data. 业务中断数据可得到性 A simple method for estimating the business interruption consequence is to use the equation: 估算的营业中断的后果的一种简单方法 Business Interruption = Process Unit Daily Value × Downtime (Days) 业中断=处理单元每日价值×停机时间(天) The unit daily value could be on a revenue or profit basis. The downtime estimate would represent the time required to get back into production. The Dow Fire and Explosion Index is a typical method of estimating downtime after a fire or explosion. 停机时间估算恢复生间隔产所需的时间

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主要生产的后果是经济损失 (能包括失去的工艺流体和业务中断的价值).

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DOW灾和爆炸 指数提供, 火灾 或爆炸后估计停 机时间的典型方 法指南.

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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

More rigorous methods for estimating business interruption consequences may take into account factors such as:更严格的估计营业中断的后果方法有 a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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Business interruption consequences; a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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Site specific circumstances should be considered in the business interruption analysis to avoid over or under stating this consequence. Examples of these considerations include: 在对业务中断分析时,应考虑个别特定的状况, 这些考虑例子包括 a) lost production may be compensated at another under-utilized or idle facility; 生产损失可能在另一个未充分利用或闲置设施进行补偿 b) loss of profit could be compounded if other facilities use the unit’s output as a feedstock or processing fluid;利润损失可能会加剧, 如果其他设施使用本机 的输出作为原料或加工液 c) repair of small damage cost equipment may take as long as large damage cost equipment; 修补小设成本备的损坏所需要的时间可能长达大成本损害设 备的时间.

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d) extended downtime may result in losing customers or market share, thus extending loss of profit beyond production restart;延长停机时间, 可能会导致 失去客户或市场份额 e) loss of hard to get or unique equipment items may require extra time to obtain replacements; 有的特殊设备需要更加长的更换 f) insurance coverage.保险范围

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11.5.7 Maintenance and Reconstruction Impact 维护和重构的影响 Maintenance and reconstruction impact represents the effort required to correct the failure and to fix or replace equipment damaged in the subsequent events (e.g. fire, explosion). The maintenance and reconstruction impact should be accounted for in the RBI program. Maintenance impact will generally be measured in monetary terms and typically includes: 维护和重构的影响一般会用金钱来衡量 a) repairs, 维修费用 b) equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Consequence cost: Unscheduled Repairs, 计划外维修费用

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Consequence cost: Unscheduled Repairs, 计划外维修费用

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Consequence cost: Equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Consequence cost: Equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Repair of small damage cost equipment may take as long as large damage cost equipment; 修补小设成本备的损坏所需要的时间可能 长达大成本损害设备的时间.

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11.6 Determination of COF 故障后果的测定 11.6.1 General 总则 The consequences of releasing a hazardous material can be estimated in 6 (six) steps (see Figure 5), with each step performed using the assumption of a specific scenario and the steps should be repeated for each credible scenario. The steps are as follows: 释放有害物质的后果可以以六个步骤来估 计. 假设的特定的场景使用上述每个步骤进行分析. 每个可信的情景需要进行 再次独立的分析. a) estimate the release rate,估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous),确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences.估计后果 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

The steps are as follows: 释放有害物质的后果可以以六个步骤来估计. 假设的 特定的场景使用上述每个步骤进行分析. 每个可信的情景需要进行再次独立 的分析. a) estimate the release rate, 估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous), 确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences. 估计后果

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a) estimate the release rate, 估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous), 确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓 慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences. 估计后果 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Figure 5—Determination of COF

11.6.2 Factors for Estimating Consequences 估算后果的因素 Estimate the consequences of a failure from equipment items considering such factors as (1) physical properties of the contained material, (2) its toxicity and (3) flammability, (4) type of release and release duration, (5) weather conditions and dispersion of the released contents, (6) escalation effects, and (7) mitigation actions. (8) Consider the impact on plant personnel and equipment, (9) population in the nearby communities, and (10) the environment. (11) Lost production, (12) loss of raw material and (13) other losses should also be considered. 估算后果的因素应当是全面化的,以上标记为应考虑的事项.

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用来估算后果的因素 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

physical properties of the contained material,物理性质 its toxicity and 毒性 flammability, 可燃性 type of release and release duration, 释放型和释放期 weather conditions and dispersion of the released contents, 气候,释放扩散 escalation effects, and 升级效应 mitigation actions. 缓解措施 Consider the impact on plant personnel and equipment 对工厂人员设备的影响 population in the nearby communities, and 周边人员密度 the environment. 环境影响 Lost production, 生产损失 loss of raw material and 原料损失 other losses should also be considered.其他应当考虑的损失

估算后果的因素应当是全面化的,以上标记为应考虑的事项.

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Several credible consequence scenarios may result from a single failure mode (release) and consequences should be determined by constructing one or more scenarios to describe a credible series of events following the initial failure. For example, a failure may be a small hole resulting from general corrosion. If the contained fluid is flammable, the consequence scenarios could include: small release without ignition, small release with ignition and small release with ignition and subsequent catastrophic failure (rupture) of the equipment item. 一个单一的故障模式可能导致几个可信的后果的情况.例如，一个故障可能是从一 般的腐蚀产生的一个小孔, 如果包含的液体是易燃.其后果的情况可能包括;  small release without ignition,小的释放无点燃  small release with ignition and 小释放带点燃  small release with ignition and subsequent catastrophic failure (rupture) of the equipment item小释放带点燃后续导致灾难性故障(破裂)

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The following shows how a consequence scenario may be constructed. 下面显示了一个后果的情况的筑建构造 a) Consequence Phase 1—Discharge: Consider the type of discharge (sudden vs slow release of contents) and its duration. 结果第1阶段- 释放:考虑释放的类型(突然与缓释) b) Consequence Phase 2—Dispersion: Consider the dispersion of the released contents due to weather conditions. 结果第2阶段- 释放:考虑由于天气条件, 释放的释放体分散， c) Consequence Phase 3—Flammable Events: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the flammability of the released contents (i.e. impact of a resulting fire or explosion on plant personnel and equipment, community, environment) (see 11.5.2). 结果第3阶段 - 易燃事 件: 根据的释放内容物的可燃性的情景估计后果 (火灾或爆炸导致对工厂人 员和设备,社会,环境影响)

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d) Consequence Phase 4—Toxic Releases: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the toxicity of the released contents (i.e. impact due to toxicity on plant personnel, community and the environment) (see 11.5.3). 结果第4阶段 - 有毒物质排放:基于所述释放的毒性场景(由于毒性对工厂人 员, 社区和环境的影响) e) Consequence Phase 5—Releases of Other Hazardous Fluids: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the characteristics of the released contents (i.e. impact due to thermal or chemical burns on plant personnel, community and the environment) (see 11.5.4).结果第5期 - 释放的其他危险液体：基于释放的其他危险液体特征 场景(即由于热或化学灼伤对工厂人员, 社区和环境的影响) f) Consequence Phase 6: The potential number of fatalities and injuries resulting from each scenario should be estimated. Different scenarios, with different associated probabilities, should be developed as appropriate. 结果第6阶段：应估计从每个方案造成死亡的伤害的潜在数量. 应适当的在 不同的场景在不同的关联下来制定概率， API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

11.6.3 Factors for More Rigorous Methods 更为严格的方法因素 Each scenario will have an associated overall probability of occurrence that will be lower than the probability of the failure itself so that the POF and COF should be developed interactively(?). After the scenarios have been developed and potential consequences estimated, acceptable ways to list consequences include: 可以接受潜在后果, 列出方法有;  classify consequence into three or more categories (e.g. a five-category classification system might be very low, low, moderate, high, very high); 分类结果为三个或更多类别- 例如一个五级分类制度可能非常低, 低, 中, 高, 很高.  rank consequence on a scale (e.g. a scale might be from 1 to 10); 排名结果-例如的规模可能是从1到10.  measure consequence (e.g. determine the estimated number of fatalities for a scenario and the economic losses in monetary units). 测量结果-例如以货币单位的经济损失死亡人数的估计数.

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