Preface... 4 Introducing Trends... 7 - Macro-Trends - Micro-Trends Introducing Trend Forecasting... 9 - What is trend forecasting? - Who are the trend forecasters? The Process of Trend Forecasting... 14 Works Cited... 19 Image Accreditation... 20 Appendix... 21 Works Cited... 22
- Peter Drucker.
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In the 19th century, the term ‘trend’ referred to how things changed over time, although the textile industry sought out to adopt this phrase first as their own in reference to changes in design (Edelkoort, 2015) It wasn’t until the 1960’s when the term ‘trend’ gained a widespread use which allowed the public to also gain familiarity with trends. Nowadays a trend can be described as a general direction in which something is developing or changing (Oxford Dictionary, 2018).
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The term trend is commonly thought of within the fashion industry but affects numerous industries ranging from media to product design to finance. Barbara Vinken stated that “Fashion is defined as the art of the perfect moment, of the sudden, surprising and yet obscurely expected harmonious apparition – the now at the threshold of an immediate future.” (Vinken, 2005). Although the fashion industry covers numerous areas, in reference via Vinken stating “the art of the perfect moment” reminded me of a fashion print; magazines that inspire us for the future via these captured perfect moments. The aim of this report is to elaborate briefly on the history of trends within the introduction; this includes introducing what trends are, the different types of trends in more depth, what trend forecasting is and why it is important and finally the introduction will close with the process of forecasting. Moving on, the report will open up my research into the area my predictions lie and the background of this. This report is split into three main areas; the first chosen macro-trend, Command & Control, discusses the predicted trend and its influences, impacts and consequences. Similarly, the two chosen micro-trends, Behind the Scenes and Holomedia discuss their prediction, influences, impacts and consequences. From the trends, the report will come to a conclusion which will sum up the predictions and previous information about trends and the forecasting industry.
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As explained in the preface, according to the (Oxford Dictionary, 2018) a trend is described as a direction in which something is developing or changing but there is more than one type of trend. It can be said that there are three types of trends which differentiate by the length of their forecast and popularity with audience. These trends are called macro-trends, micro-trends and fads. A macro-trend is known as a long-term trend whereas a micro-trend is known as a short-term trend and a fad would be known as the shortest-term trend due to its passing over a few months. A long-term trend otherwise known as a macro-trend looks ahead 5 years or longer. Your Business described macro-trends as “a sustained shift in consumer interest“ (Mack, N/A), considerably affecting a larger number of consumers these trends are the bigger picture influencers. Looking towards the bigger picture, the trends react to current happenings within our culture and then predict what will come of this in the future. A short-term trend otherwise known as a micro-trend looks ahead 2-3 years. These trends in comparison to long term affect a smaller scale of consumers so overall influences on a smaller scale. Sometimes considered as less influential (Mack, N/A), they may only affect a single industry or market such as fashion. A fad is even shorter than a micro-trend, this could be described by other words such as craze or novelty and is a short-lived enthusiasm for something. Typically lasting only a few months, the definition of a fad is ‘an intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, especially one that is short lived; a craze.’ (Oxford Dictionary, 2018).
Figure 1 - Micro-Trend Example Moodboard (Kemp, 2018).
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Figure 2 - Micro-Trend Example Moodboard (Kemp, 2018).
Trends are used primarily as a method of communicating recurring themes and ideas which exist in social culture and current politics, these are used to increase consumer traffic and profit whilst also keeping ahead of brand competition. In order for these trends to be predicted, trend forecasters have the vital role of gathering emerging trend information about the ‘next big thing’. But what is trend forecasting? Forecasting is another word for predicting, and the art of trend forecasting is predicting what will be popular/fashionable in the future. There is a process to how trends are predicted which will be elaborated on in the following section; it includes research and constant awareness of what is happening whether that be in the economy, culture, politics etc.
“Trend forecasting influences the colours, the styles and textures that are abundant in stores. However, if even the slightest hue or shade of colour or style fails to match consumers’ tastes, then these items will not sell.” (Bruce & Hines, 2006)
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According to (Pouillard, 2013) in an industry such as Fashion, it is considered “crucial to examine the factors that drive renewal” and the reason for this is that it is “important to understand the functioning of mass consumption societies”. In 1962 a theory called the diffusion of innovation was created by E.M. Rogers which explained how over time an idea of product gains and loses momentum through a social system or specific population. Five categories showed the increase and diffusion upon a scale; these categories described how the ‘trend’ begins, rises and falls through the innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. Due to continuing changes of sustained shift in consumer interest (Mack, N/A), the diffusion of innovation model becomes a system in identifying trends. Looking at what goes on globally such as culture, technology and politics, trend forecasters make it a point to be consistently aware. Trend forecasting no longer revolves around the runway; “it’s no longer about a single look but distilling lifestyles and mind-sets into marketable concepts” and the trend becomes the lifestyle that brands want to sell. From a brand perspective, awareness is one of the keys to a thriving business, if brands consider what consumers are buying and how they are buying then they are minimising the risk of loss. As cleverly explained by Bruce and Hines in the quote on page 10, products will not sell if they fail to meet the consumers’ needs, tastes or expectations.
Figure 3 - Diffusion of Innovation Model (Tilisathibodeaux, 2018).
Who are the trend forecasters? Forecasters have come a long way from being sat at runway shows due to the digital age and more forecasting companies are accessible now online usually for a fee. A trend forecasters role is not limited to just gathering information about what is happening, it’s important for the behaviours and unpredictability of consumer shopping habits to be taken into consideration. Due to consumer demand in the post-internet era, trend forecasters are relied on a lot more heavily and companies such as WGSN and Unique Style Platform are popular forecasting sources.
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Beginning with the ‘red thread’ theory, which relates to a forecasters role in how they analyse the market movements and consumer behaviours by defining patterns within the data and locating the ‘red thread’. According to a presentation via Dr Natalie McCreesh there are five stages to the forecasting process; researching, editing, interpreting and analysing, predicting and communicating (McCreesh, 2018). This process comes at a much quicker pace due to the industries demand for trend information; there is an importance for trends to keep up with the consumers buying demands. Research methods are key in all projects including trend prediction and there are a number of methods which are used within the forecasting process. These could include; primary data, secondary data, cross cultural analysis, cultural brailling, ethnography and qualitative data (see appendix for further information). Within this process the forecasters have to consider what or who is driving the trend whether that be lifestyle, influencers, culture, retail or fashion and beauty. One of the easiest ways to conclude trend drivers is to hunt for the information, identify the drivers and then gather the information by determining links.
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Trend forecasters would keep a trend den which would display all their resources and information and apply the 3X rule (McCreesh, 2018) which tests the validity of a trend across different industries (see appendix for more information). One of the later areas which will be displayed within this report is a trend cartogram, which is explained as a map that would visually identify a trend. A trend cartogram (Malmsten, 2016) identifies areas of the trend in mind by describing who the innovators are, the name of the trend, the impact on society due to the trend, the drivers or influencers, the consequences of the trend and what these changes mean to society over the long term. In essence this makes up the
and the
of a trend.
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Once the trends have been researched, analysed and identified, they are to be communicated to brands who may or may not use them for their upcoming seasons. Popular trend forecasting companies are Unique Style Platform, WGSN and Promostyl but can only be accessed by brands who are subscribed to their company or purchase their products– therefore the brands need trends to increase revenue, but the trend companies need subscriptions to keep going and that in itself is a process.
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Bruce, M., & Hines, T. (2006). Fashion Marketing. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. Edelkoort, L. (2015, April 10). Talking Trends With Li Edelkoort. (K. Dhillon, Interviewer) Mack, S. (N/A, N/A N/A). What Is a Macro Trend? Retrieved from Your Business AZCentral: https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/macro-trend-8289.html Malmsten, C. (2016, October 25). Cartogram/Wall of Evidence. Retrieved from Medium : https://medium.com/@cjmalmsten/cartogram-wall-of-evidence-1a5b4dfcd677 McCreesh, N. (2018, January 19). Audio Trend Forecasting Methodology retrieved from Prezi. Oxford Dictionary. (2018, 03 04). Fad. Retrieved from Oxford Dictionary : https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/fad Oxford Dictionary. (2018, February 22). Trend. Retrieved from Oxford Dictionary : https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/trend Pouillard, V. (2013). Anticipating Fashion Trends. Globalising Beauty: Consumerism and Body Aesthetics, 151. Vinken, B. (2005). Adorned in Zeitgeist . In B. Vinken, Fashion Zeitgeist: Trends and Cycles in the Fashion System (p. 42). Oxford: Berg.
Bible, T. (2017, November 17). PRE CHRISTMAS OFFER: AUTUMN WINTER 2019/20. Retrieved from Trend Bible: https://www.trendbible.com/pre-christmas-offer-autumn-winter-201920/ Kemp, C. (2018, February 12). Skin Deep. Retrieved from Chelsea L Kemp: https://chelsealkemp.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/skindeep.html Kemp, C. (2018, February 5). The Crisis. Retrieved from Chelsea L Kemp: https://chelsealkemp.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/thecrisis.html Raymond, M. (2010). The Trend Forecaster's Handbook. London: Laurence King Publishing. Roses, O. (2015, December 15). TREND FORECASTING – PROMOSTYL, WGSN & LI EDELKOORT. Retrieved from Oli Roses: https://oliroses.wordpress. com/2015/12/15/151215-trend-forecasting-promostyl-wgsn/ Tilisathibodeaux. (2018, February 23). Innovation Theory. Retrieved from Tilisathibodeaux: http://tilisathibodeaux.com/wordpress/?page_id=1061 Well Made Clothes. (2017, September N/A). ‘The Overload Of Product Is Turning Us Off,’ Says Fashion Forecaster Li Edelkoort. Retrieved from Well Made Clothes: https://wellmadeclothes.com/articles/LiEdelkoortSaysOverloadIsTurningUsOff/
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Primary Data – Primary Data is data that is collected by oneself and is not collected by any other party other than the user. Secondary Data – Secondary Data is the opposite of primary data in that this data has already been collected within the past by other researchers than the user (Rouse, 2018), secondary data can be found in books, magazines, newspapers, documentaries and online. Cross Cultural Analysis - Comparing and analysing cultures can lead to discovering similarities and differences i.e. traits shared which can then lead to cultural universals (Gillies, 2009). Cultural Brailing - “Looking for bumps in culture via all the senses; sight, smell, taste, touch, listening and emerging into the environment physically and emotionally” (McCreesh, 2018). The senses allow the user/researcher to immerse themselves within a culture. Ethnography – Ethnographic research or field research can include a number of different areas such as observation, visual documentation i.e. pictures, notes, artefact analysis i.e. analysing objects, interviews and focus groups (McCreesh, 2018). Qualitative Data – None numerical data (numerical data is known as quantitative data) such as words, pictures and artefacts e.g. objects. 3X Rule - “The 3X rule is used to test the validity of a trend across a number of industries or cultural disciplines. Identify 3 products/ideas/’stuff’ with noticeable characteristics in common within the same industry/sector e.g fashion, beauty etc. Next identify 3 products that share similar aesthetic, social or intellectual reference points in 3 other non-related specialisms e.g. design, retail, technology” (McCreesh, 2018). It’s all about choosing different products that have noticeable things in common firstly in the same industry and secondly in varying industries to discover whether the trend is valid amongst different areas.
Gillies, H. K. (2009, N/A N/A). Cross-Cultural Analysis. Retrieved from ANTHROPOLOGICAL THEORIES: http://anthropology.ua.edu/cultures/cultures.php?culture=Cross-Cultural%20Analysis McCreesh, N. (2018, January 19). Audio Trend Forecasting Methodology retrieved from Prezi. Rouse, M. (2018, N/A N/A). Secondary Data . Retrieved from What Is: https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/secondary-data
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