IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE!
Climate Change and the limits to expansion
Approximately 80% of the world population lives on less than $10 per day
A whole new world
Geologists classify the history of the planet into geological epochs
The current epoch – the Holocene – began 11,700 years ago
The International Commission on Stratigraphy, however, are considering whether a new epoch needs to be added to geological time scale: the ‘Anthropocene’
Anthropocene 
The Anthropocene, which would begin around 1850, signals the presence of humanity as the singularly dominant planetary force
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If for the majority of human history we have been dominated by nature, humanity has now become nature
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What happens to ecosystems of this planet is primarily dependent on human behaviour, which has lead to an unprecedented ecological crisis
Today
How is the climate changing?
Producing our changing climate
Who suffers from climate change?
What can be done? Solutions, challenges and denial To what extent should people be forced to reduce their affects on the environment?
The Greening of Our Time
Climate change is one of the defining movements of our time
Climate change, or global warming, has become embedded in our consciousness
Recycling, ‘green’ products and energy efficiency have become part of our everyday lives
Was learning about climate change part of your education?
Changing climate
Climate change refers to changes in the environment and includes both global changes and localised effects
Global warming is the specific process by which global temperatures are increasing through the accumulation of ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere
The Earth has an atmosphere of ‘Greenhouse gases’ (mostly water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane) that traps heat: heat from the Sun enters, some stays
If the planet didn’t have this atmosphere, like the Moon, it would be frozen
If the Earth had an atmosphere like Venus, which is 96% carbon dioxide (the Earth is around 0.03-0.04%), temperatures would be close to 500 degrees
The ‘Greenhouse’ effect
Emitting carbon
We are burning lots of carbon in fossil fuels (approx. 70% of all carbon emissions), creating carbon dioxide
CO2 has risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1850 to 393ppm in 2013 (and has passed 400 at some points)
This creates a number of material and geo-political effects that are unevenly experienced across the world
Carbon Emissions: Long Term
Carbon Emissions: Short Term
Other Sources
Making concrete: Heating calcium carbonate (about 3% of the total)
Other greenhouse gases: Principally methane (30%)
The ‘contrails’ of high-flying planes
Deforestation: Trees absorb carbon and this carbon is released from the dead trees
How much carbon do you produce?
Do you actively seek to reduce your ecological footprint?
The temperature is rising
The average temperature of the planet has risen by between .7 - .8 degrees since 1850 and, since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade
Changes are extremely varied, but are measured in 66 countries around the world
These figures are dated and temperature rises always lag behind emissions
Most predictions to 2050 range between 2 and 6 degrees of warming, depending on our ability to reduce emissions and the reaction of the environment
Predicted temperature increases: IPCC 2013
Global Warming
Source: United States Global Change Research Program
The end of the world?
Films have often featured apocalyptic environmental scenarios
The world will not blow up, but it will make it significantly harder for some people to live in some places
Rising sea-levels will flood some areas More regular natural disasters will make living in some places unviable Rising temperatures will melt mountain snow, drying up rivers and ending vital sources of water Rising temperatures will make growing crops in some areas impossible
This will increase conflict over access to resources
And abrupt environmental changes are possible as unknown natural ‘thresholds’ are passed
Is climate change something you worry about?
Rise in ‘natural’ disasters
Rising sea-levels
The economics of emissions
The world economy has increased by a factor of eight since 1950
The global population has risen from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7 billion today
Economic growth, combined with population growth, is likely to increase the size of the global economy by US$420 trillion by 2050 (an increase of six times)
The 2012 Environmental Outlook to 2050 report from OECD suggests the likely quadrupling of the global economy would increase world energy demand by 80% to 2050.
The more we consume, the more needs to be produced, the more that is produced (at the moment) the more carbon is emitted and the more resources are used
Graph: industrial production
Producing emissions
What would you like to ask?
Uneven effects
Climate change affects the world very differently, particularly the viability of living in certain environments
Wealthier nations have a greater capacity to adapt to climatic changes
Richer people are better able to purchase scarcer and more expense resources
Poorer areas of the world are the most affected by climatic changes
The poor poor
Low-lying Pacific Islands will become uninhabitable due to rising sea-levels
Whilst some Northern areas will get wetter, desertification will increase in the subtropics
Melting mountain/glacier snow in Latin America and Asia will reduce water available for drinking, cleaning and growing food
Crop yields are likely to fall drastically in some areas, although it is possible they will rise over all
Hungrier people
As the global population rises to 9 billion by 2050, food demand is likely to rise by 14% whilst production stalls
A 2009 ‘Human Impact’ report from Oxfam suggested that 300,000 people a year are dying from climate change
Most of the poorest people in the world are unable to adapt to rapid changes in their living conditions and will most likely have to migrate to more equipped areas
They are also subject to fluctuations in food prices caused by falling crop yields
Angrier People
Nothing creates human aggression like hunger
The rising global population, which is almost all in the urban areas of the developing world, is going to lead to a lot more hunger and conflict over scare resources
Some of these conflicts will be in the most volatile parts of the world
Nuclear Anger
The North-West Passage
Do the rich have a moral responsibility to sacrifice for the good of the poor?
Sharing the guilt 
Whilst many Western economies are gradually reducing their carbon emissions, they rely on developing nations to manufacture goods
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We consume increasing amounts of consumer goods that are made in factories fuelled by coal
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The Western world also relied on these cheap technologies to develop, which makes it politically difficult to ask developing nations to stop
The Problem
If ending poverty requires an expansion of global production (capitalism) so that more people have more resources…
… and the climate change is stimulated by economic production
Then we have a direct contradiction between the needs of capitalism and the needs of the people
Buy nothing day
The most obviously solution to climate change is to reduce our consumption
This can come from reducing energy consumption, but also buy purchasing less and moving to a ‘post-growth world’
‘Buy nothing day’ is the strongest example of this demand
Produce nothing day
Whilst reducing consumption seems like a great idea, it ignores the function of capitalism
Not only does capitalism need to keep expanding, such that buying less means less profit
But the people who feel reductions in production most are those doing the producing
Should people try to consume less?
The politics of adaptation
With no easy solution to climate change, and then effects increasingly apparent, governments are turning to adaption measures
Wealthier nations are seeking to build flood and storm barriers
Western governments are increasingly focused on the consequences of for global security
Aid to Africa often focuses on the adaptive technologies
The politics of denial
In difficult financial times and without readily apparent solutions, belief in climate change and political action are reducing
Climate change denial has becomes increasingly popular, and is commonly funded by wealthy donors and the fossil fuel industry
These ‘think tanks’ seek to make the science climate change a debateable issue
Extremist politicians have also taken up the cause, particularly when it fits their political agenda
In summary
Increases in economic production fuelled by carbon-based energy have caused significant increases in carbon emissions
These carbon emissions are having a substantial affect upon local and global environments
The affects upon people are very different and are often split between rich and poor nations
More reading
Next Week PEOPLE MOVERS: URBANISATION AND MIGRATION Readings Chapter One, Davis, Mike (2006) Planet of Slums . London: Verso. Chapters 12 and 18 of Cohen and Kennedy