9 it's getting hot in here 2015iii

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IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE!

Climate Change and the limits to expansion




The Dilemma 

To lift people out of poverty, we need to produce more – the poor need to consume more resources and need to have jobs to finance this consumption

Economic growth means more energy consumption and production

Climate change is occurring because we are burning more fossil fuels as they are the most economically efficient form of energy

To slow the effects of climate change we need to radically reduce our energy use


Today 

How is the climate changing?

Producing our changing climate

Who suffers from climate change?

The capitalist dilemma To what extent should developing nations be forced to reduce their carbon emissions?


A whole new world 

Geologists classify the history of the planet into geological epochs

The current epoch – the Holocene – began 11,700 years ago

The International Commission on Stratigraphy are considering whether to introduce a new geological epoch: the ‘Anthropocene’


Anthropocene 

The Anthropocene, which would begin around 1850, signals the presence of humanity as the singularly dominant planetary force

If for the majority of human history we have been dominated by nature, humanity has now become a ‘natural force’

What happens to ecosystems of this planet is primarily dependent on human behaviour, which has lead to an unprecedented ecological crisis


The greening of our time 

Climate change is one of the defining movements of y/our generation

Climate change, or global warming, has become embedded in our consciousness

Recycling, ‘green’ products and energy efficiency have become part of our everyday lives



Was learning about climate change part of your education?



Changing climate 

Climate change refers to changes in the environment and includes both global changes and localised effects

Global warming is the specific process by which global temperatures are increasing through the accumulation of ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere

The Earth has an atmosphere of ‘Greenhouse gases’ (mostly water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane) that traps heat: heat from the Sun enters, some stays

If the planet didn’t have this atmosphere, like the Moon, it would be frozen

If the Earth had an atmosphere like Venus, which is 96% carbon dioxide (the Earth is around 0.03-0.04%), temperatures would be close to 500 degrees


The ‘Greenhouse’ effect


Emitting carbon 

We are burning lots of carbon in fossil fuels (approx. 70% of all carbon emissions), creating carbon dioxide



CO2 has risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1850 to 393ppm in 2013 (and has passed 400 at some points)



Carbon Emissions: Short Term



Other sources 

Making concrete: Heating calcium carbonate (about 3% of the total)

Other greenhouse gases: Principally methane (30%)

The ‘contrails’ of high-flying planes

Deforestation: Trees absorb carbon and this carbon is released from the dead trees


How much carbon do you produce?


The temperature is rising 

The average temperature of the planet has risen by around .85C degrees since 1850 and, since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade

Changes are extremely varied, but are measured at 7,000 stations around the world

Most predictions to 2050 range between 2 and 6 degrees of warming, depending on our ability to reduce emissions and the reaction of the environment


Global warming

Source: United States Global Change Research Program


What worries you most about climate change?


The end of the world? 

Films have often featured apocalyptic environmental scenarios

The world will not blow up, but it will make it significantly harder for some people to live in some places  Rising

sea-levels will flood some areas  More regular natural disasters will make living in some places unviable  Rising temperatures will melt mountain snow, drying up rivers and ending vital sources of water  Rising temperatures will make growing crops in some areas impossible


Rise in ‘natural’ disasters


Sea levels


The economics of emissions 

The world economy has increased by a factor of eight since 1950

The global population has risen from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7 billion today

Economic growth, combined with population growth, is likely to increase the size of the global economy by US$420 trillion by 2050 (an increase of six times)

The more we consume, the more needs to be produced, the more that is produced (at the moment) the more carbon is emitted and the more resources are used

The 2012 Environmental Outlook to 2050 report from OECD suggests the likely quadrupling of the global economy would increase world energy demand by 80% to 2050.


Producing emissions


Graph: industrial production


Do you actively seek to reduce your ecological footprint?


Uneven effects 

Climate change affects the world very differently, particularly the viability of living in certain environments

A 2009 ‘Human Impact’ report from Oxfam suggested that 300,000 people a year are dying from climate change

Wealthier nations have a greater capacity to adapt to climatic changes and richer peoples are better able to purchase scarcer and more expense resources


The poor poor 

Low-lying Pacific Islands will become uninhabitable due to rising sea-levels

Whilst some Northern areas will get wetter, desertification will increase in the subtropics

Melting mountain/glacier snow in Latin America and Asia will reduce water available for drinking, cleaning and growing food

Crop yields are likely to fall drastically in some areas, although it is possible they will rise over all






Hungrier people 

As the global population rises to 9 billion by 2050, food demand is likely to rise by 14% whilst production stalls

Most of the poorest people in the world are unable to adapt to rapid changes in their living conditions and will most likely have to migrate to more equipped areas

They are also subject to fluctuations in food prices caused by falling crop yields


Hangrier People 

Nothing creates human aggression like hunger

The rising global population, which is almost all in the urban areas of the developing world, is going to lead to a lot more hunger and conflict over scare resources

Some of these conflicts will be in the most volatile parts of the world


Nuclear Anger


The North-West Passage


Negotiating the future 

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held in Paris at the end of the year

The goal is to achieve a legally binding climate change agreement from all the countries in the world, with the goal to keep global warming under two degrees

Previous conferences have failed to reach binding agreements because of a split between developed and developing countries

Developed nations have produced the most carbon emissions, but developing nations will produce the most in the future


What is a developing nation?


Sharing the guilt 

Whilst many Western economies are gradually reducing their carbon emissions, they rely on developing nations to manufacture goods



We consume large amounts of consumer goods that are made in factories fuelled by coal



The Western world also relied on these cheap technologies to develop, which makes it politically difficult to ask developing nations to stop


Do richer countries have a responsibility to sacrifice for the good of the rest?



Flying and climate change 

Flying causes 4-9% of total carbon emissions, despite being a global niche industry

CO2 emissions from international aviation have increased 83 per cent since 1990 and are the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions

The aviation industry is predicted to grow globally by 4-5% to 2050

A return flight from London to New York produces one person’s total ‘carbon allowance’ of 1.2t of CO2 

We each produce 9.5t but need to cut this by 87% to 1.2t


a) b) c)

Would you‌? Ban flying Heavily tax flying Take no action


The Problem 

If ending poverty requires an expansion of global production (capitalism) so that more people have more resources…

… and the climate change is stimulated by economic production

Then we have a direct contradiction between the needs of capitalism and the needs of the people


Buy nothing day 

The most obviously solution to climate change is to reduce our consumption

This can come from reducing energy consumption, but also buy purchasing less and moving to a ‘post-growth world’

‘Buy nothing day’ is the strongest example of this demand


Produce nothing day 

Whilst reducing consumption seems like a great idea, it ignores the dynamics of capitalism

Not only does capitalism need to keep expanding, such that reduced consumption means less profit

But the people who feel reductions in production most are those doing the producing


Should we try to consume less?


In summary 

Increases in economic production fuelled by carbon-based energy have caused significant increases in carbon emissions

These carbon emissions are having a substantial affect upon local and global environments

The affects upon people are very different and are often split between rich and poor nations


More reading


Next Week PEOPLE MOVERS: URBANISATION AND MIGRATION Readings Core reading: Chapter One, Davis, Mike (2006) Planet of Slums. London: Verso.

See also: Ash, A. (1997).Placing Globalization. Theory, Culture & Society. 14 (2), pp.123-137 Fasenfest, D. (2011). The 21st Century Urban Landscape: Plus รงa change. Critical Sociology. 38 (1) pp.3-5


Reflective assessment 

Marks were lower than usual, primarily because a number of students did not address the question  The

average was 58%, 5 A’s, 21 B’s, 11 C’s, 10 D’s and 2 E’s

A lack of engagement with sociological ideas was another significant issue

I have noted a range of issues with your writing styles/referencing – please address these



Working with feedback 

The purpose of the feedback is to help you learn and to improve, not just to justify your mark

If you don’t understand, email me or make a time to see me

Make sure that you do not repeat the same mistakes


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