November 2008
“Crossing The Desert” Semis Market Perspective
ENGLISH TECH
TOUR
Bruce B. Huber Chairman of European Technology Investment Banking
Pptname 2 01/07/98
The Global Investment Bank Of Choice For Growth Companies Publicly-held (NYSE:JEF) Over 2,300 employees in 28 offices worldwide(1) Employee ownership: Over 50%(1)
The largest independent institutional brokerage and investment banking firm
Highly respected growth equities research
Wall Street’s fastest growing equity underwriting platform
Global sector-focused banking approach, with top-ranked M&A and advisory
The leading sales and trading platform for NASDAQ, and highly ranked for growth stocks globally
Thomson Financial’s Buyout Magazine
2006 Middle Market Bank of the Year
San Francisco Silicon Valley
Boston Waltham Stamford New York Jersey City Short Hills Washington Atlanta Richmond Covington
Charlotte Chicago Nashville
Los Angeles Dallas Houston
Frankfurt London Paris Zurich Tokyo
Israel*
Shanghai
New Orleans
“The Bulge Bracket of MidMarket”
New Delhi Hong Kong*
Goldman Sachs - 2007
Cities in red indicate locations with TMT bankers, * Affiliates (1) Includes approximately 10% of retired employees still acting as consultants.
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Pptname 3 01/07/98
Semis Is Still A Massive Market Global Semis Revenues
2008 Segmentation by Application (% growth relative to 2007)
$274bn
Military / Aerospace 1%
$285bn
+7% growth
$264bn
+16% growth $238bn
Industrial 11%
$220bn
Automotive 8%
$178bn
Data Processing (PC's / Peripherals) 37%
+1% growth
Communications (Wired / Wireless) 25%
+4% growth
Consumer Electronics 18%
+3% growth 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
At ca. $285 billion for 2008, the semis industry continues to be a critical enabler of the IT economy An installed base of some 3.3 billion mobile devices is more than the combined number of PC’s, credit cards, and vehicles world-wide!!!
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Pptname 4 01/07/98
However, Stresses Are Acute As The Industry Has Underperformed 5 Year Share Price Comparison 160
140
120
100 NASDAQ LTM (65%)
80 Philadelphia SOXX LTM Decline (54%) 60
40 Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Equity and credit market contractions impacting consumer spending suggest a pessimistic outlook
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Pptname 5 01/07/98
Growth Is Definitely Going To Be Lower, And The ‘Bright Spots’ Are Expected To Be Different Large, Mature Markets Generally Experience Lower Growth Rates
Semiconductor Segments Size Vs. Growth
Semiconductor Device Category Size Vs. Growth $250
General Purpose
$140
Data Processing (PC’s / Peripherals)
2012E Market Size
$100
$200
Communications (Wired / Wireless)
$80
Industrial $60
Consumer Electronics
$40
Military / Aerospace
Automotive
2012E Market Size
$120
ASSP ASSP
$100
Micro $50
$20
3%
6%
2007 – 2012E CAGR
9%
12%
$0 0%
2%
Opto Discrete Analog Logic
ASIC ASIC
$0 0%
ApplicationSpecific
$150
4%
6%
8%
Non-Optical Sensor 10%
12%
14%
16%
2007 – 2012E CAGR
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Pptname 6 01/07/98
Grim Realities Of The New Environment
With valuations at a 5-year low and global capital markets in turmoil, business models need to adjust to new economic and industrial realities – Long term industry growth in mid-single digits (although selected pockets will outperform, some will shrink) – Significant margin compression in most high volume markets, especially consumer – Current valuation multiples approximately 50% of historical figures
Given the high semis end-market exposure to consumer spending, the current economic crisis will have a particularly severe impact over the next 12 – 24 months
The global IPO market is closed - and unlikely to open for the next 12-18 months (it will be extremely selective when it does open!) Capital Preservation is Paramount!
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Pptname 7 01/07/98
With the IPO Market Closed, M&A Is The Only Path To Liquidity Semiconductor M&A - # Deals
Semiconductor M&A – Seller Distribution
(2003 – present)
(2003 – present)
33%
30%
28%
28 Deals 19 Deals 20 Deals
37%
36%
6%
11%
48%
36 Deals
6% 8%
20 Deals
10%
4 Deals
5 Deals
5 Deals 6 Deals
45 Deals
5 Deals
66%
17 Deals 43 Deals
7%
62%
57%
57%
40 Deals 5 Deals
34 Deals
34 Deals
53%
45%
25 Deals
2003
2004
2005
Private Sale
2006 Public Sale
2007 Divestiture
2008 YTD
2003
2004 Private Sale
2005
2006 Public Sale
2007
2008 YTD
Divestiture
No surprise, M&A deal volumes are falling While the data may not be stark, we are seeing a trend toward greater buyer focus on public (vs. private) targets
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Pptname 8 01/07/98
The M&A ‘Overhang’ - Today’s Public Market Is Cheaper Than Most VC-Backed Privates Global Semis Vendors With Enterprise Values <$250m $300m $200m
Emcore
Cirrus Logic
CSR
Imagination
Xyratex
Silicon Image
SMART
Omnivision
Mellanox
Wolfson
Intellon
Arc
Hifn
California
Dialog
AAT
Exar
Netlist
Tundra
Silicon Motion
AuthenTec
Adaptec
Ikanos
Leadis
ISS
SiRF
Zoran
Vimicro
Trident
Rackable Systems
($300m)
Actions Semi
($200m)
Micronas
($100m)
Qimonda
$0m
MEMSIC
$100m
($400m) ($500m) ($600m) ($700m) ($800m)
The Challenge With VC-Backed M&A Is That Public M&A Consolidation Must Get Done First
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Pptname 9 01/07/98
Even The Largest Caps Have Severely Reduced ‘Currency’ % 52 Week High
Equity Market Cap ($m)
Net Cash (Debt)
Enterprise Value ($m)
2008E EV/Sales
2008E P/E
Forward P/E’s 1 Year Ago
% Decrease
Intel
58%
90,908
10,152
80,756
2.0x
12.9x
22.4x
(42%)
Qualcomm
70%
65,179
11,058
54,121
4.9x
17.5x
20.6x
(15%)
Texas Instruments
55%
25,077
2,710
22,367
1.7x
11.4x
17.9x
(36%)
Broadcom
53%
9,051
2,288
6,764
1.4x
10.6x
NM
NA
AMD
26%
2,166
(3,799)
5,965
1.0x
NM
NM
NA
Linear Tech
60%
5,121
(678)
5,799
4.9x
13.4x
19.3x
(31%)
ST Micro
53%
7,118
490
6,628
0.7x
12.4x
22.6x
(45%)
Xilinx
66%
5,192
774
4,418
2.3x
12.8x
19.3x
(39%)
Infineon
25%
2,375
(593)
2,969
0.5x
NM
NM
NA
Median
1.7x
12.8x
20.0x
(36%)
Comparable data as of 30th October 2008
Share ratings for the largest semi groups are being “hammered” by the markets Median forward P/E’s are down 36% year-over-year 9
Pptname 10 01/07/98
There Has Been ‘Shuffling’ Of The Roster Of Active Semis Acquirers Now … Ronda Group Xiam Tec Toy Open Interface SoftMax Firethorn TeleCIS (WiMAX)
Electro Module SEMICOA T.S.I. Microelectronics Microwave Device
AMD (Digital TV) Sunext Design Global Locate
Mobilygen Vitesse (Storage)
Octalica
Atmel (Wafer Fab)
Intel (Comm & Apps)
Agere Systems
K-Will Corporation ADI (Cellular Handset) NuCORE
Infineon (Hard Drive) Tarari SiliconStor
Primarion LSI (Mobility Products) TI (DSL Cust Premises)
Before … RFMD (Bluetooth) nPhase Qualphone Berkana Wireless elata Limited Flarion Technologies Vesuvius
LVL7 Systems Sandburst Corporation Athena Semiconductors Siliquent Technologies Zeevo
Avago (Printer Semi) UTStarcom (Design) QLogic (HD/Tape Drive)
Metta Technology StoreAge Chelsio
Airoha Pollex Mobile
PowerDsine Adv. Power Tech
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Pptname 11 01/07/98
The Traditional Venture Model Of High Capital Commitment To SOC Companies Is Broken VC Investments in Semiconductor Companies
Top VC-Funded Business (>$100m To-Date)
16%
$ 5,000 $ 4,500
Company
Cumulative Funding
14%
Location
Major VC’s
Alien Tech
$281m
Advanced Equities, RHO Ventures, New Enterprise
Cortina / Imenstar
$220m
El Dorado, Morgenthaler, Jafco
Icera / Sirific
$200m
Benchmark, Amadeus, Atlas, 3i, Accel
Peregrine
$197m
Apax, Wasserstein, Morgenthaler, Roser
4%
Solarflare
$136m
Oak, Foundation, Anthem, Accel, Amadeus
2%
Ubicom
$136m
Mayfield, JatoTech, Investcorp, August
$ 4,000 12% $ 3,500 10%
$ 3,000
8%
$ 2,500 $ 2,000
6%
$ 1,500 $ 1,000 $ 500 $0
0% 2002
2003
2004
Global VC Funding
2005
2006
2007
2008YTD
% of Global VC Funding into Semis
Today Analog, MEMS and RF companies require less capital and are more compelling for VCs Low cost engineering in Asia is of critical importance
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Pptname 12 01/07/98
‘Best’ And ‘Challenging’ Exits Tell The Story Of Capital Efficiency Best Exits (2007 – 2008YTD) Announce Date
Company
May 08
Location
Challenging Exits (2007 – 2008YTD) Announce Date
Company
$278
Oct 08
Silicon Optix
$16
$110
Aug 08
Aristos
MIPS
$28
$150
Aug 08
SiRF
$48
$283
Broadcom
$62
Silicon Motion
$13
Location
Funding
Exit
IDT
$110
~$25
Adaptec
$109
$41
NetEffect
Intel
$119
$8
Apr 08
Primarion
Infineon
$120
$50
$146
Apr 08
Vativ
Entropic
$38
$7
$108
Apr 07
Teja
Arc
$34
$5
Buyer
Funding
Exit
PA Semi
Apple
$126
Dec 07
GloNav
NXP B.V.
Aug 07
ChipIdea
Jun 07
Centrality
Jun 07
Global Locate
Apr 07
FCI
Buyer
The US-based, VC-backed semiconductor company model is severely challenged Fewer early stage investments expected, with focus on later stage opportunities, often where recap has occurred
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Pptname 13 01/07/98
Semi Innovation Is Not Yet Over GROWTH DRIVERS
High Performance Analog • Power Management • Comms Analog • Signal Conditioning ICs
MEMS / Sensors GROWTH DRIVERS
• Home Connectivity • High Speed Video Transfers • Personal Area Networking
• 10Gb Ethernet Penetration • “Virtualization” • Data / Telcom market growth • 40Gb deployments
• Accelerometers & Gyroscopes • Biometric Touch Sensors • MEMS resonators / oscillators
Wireless Mobile GROWTH DRIVERS
Enterprise / Datacenter GROWTH DRIVERS
GROWTH DRIVERS
Consumer Connectivity
• Power Management • RF Infrastructure • WiMax • 3.5 – 4G
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Pptname 14 01/07/98
Looking Ahead… Keys To Success
Capital conservation is paramount – Cost of capital is going up, not down – Private company M&A is reduced until public buyer currency recovers – The IPO “window” closed for near/medium term
A lean cost base may mean shifting more development to Asia or India – Buyers are concerned about headcount in high cost geographies
Raise money when you can - not necessarily when you need it!
Stay “connected” to the market – it can change quickly – Relationships with “best buyers” – Get to know good bankers!
Europe needs a new generation of public middle market companies – Jefferies will certainly be ready to support those IPOs!
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Pptname 15 01/07/98
Selected M&A Transactions May 2008
May 2008
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
January 2008
has been acquired by
August 2007
May 2007
has acquired
has been acquired by
April 2007
has been acquired by
December 2006
has been acquired by
ÂŁ27,740,000
Undisclosed
$76,000,000
$147,000,000
$115,000,000
$93,000,000
$107,500,000
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Buyer
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
July 2006
February 2006
January 2006
October 2005
July 2005 The Software Business Of
The Broadband Business Unit Of
has been acquired by
May 2005 The SPG Test And Measurement Division Of
September 2004
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
$127,000,000
$30,000,000
$200,000,000
$ Confidential
$48,000,000
$88,000,000
$123,000,000
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Financial Advisor to the Seller
Bruce Huber
has been acquired by
Chairman European Technology Tel: +44 20 7029 8020 email: bhuber@jefferies.com
Selected IPO/Equity Transactions Pending
February 2008
December 2007
December 2007
September, 2007
March 2007
August 2007
$500,000,000
$100,000,000
$60,000,000
$51,750,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$105,656,250
Initial Public Offering Co-Manager
Private Investment in Public Equity Lead Placement Agent
Initial Public Offering Co-Manager
Initial Public Offering Co-Manager
1,600,000 Share Bought Block Deal Sole Manager
Senior Secured Credit Facility Sole Placement Agent
Follow-on Offering Co-Manager
David Creamer Head of Global Semiconductor Investment Banking Tel: +1 650 576 4280 email: dcreamer@jefferies.com
Andres Pieczanski Managing Director Tel: +44 20 7029 8038 email: apieczanski@jefferies.com
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