TARGET SAN DIEGO A Roadmap to Winning a Social Justice Agenda in San Diego
Prepared by Equality Alliance of San Diego County. Winter 2011 www.equalitysandiego.org Renewing the California Dream The California Dream of getting ahead and making a better life is slipping out of reach in large part due to a broken taxation and budget process. The symptoms are familiar: budget crises, worker furloughs, excessive borrowing, government shutdown, and revocation of funding for critical services. This gridlock threatens the viability of our economy, the stability of our resources, and the promise of our future. A broken financial system threatens every social justice issue. To get back on track we need to make changes that ensure our government is managing the state’s resources responsibly by collecting everyone’s fair share in taxes. We need to reinvest wisely in our public infrastructure such as schools, roads, police, parks, health clinics, firefighters, libraries, and more. To make long lasting change, we need voters to act.
San Diego Voters are Critical Ten Largest Counties 26%
29% Other 48 counties combined
3%
9%
3% 4% 4%
5% 5%
8%
LA (26%) Orange (9%) San Diego (8%) Riverside (5%) San Bernardino (5%) Alameda (4%) Santa Clara (4%) Sacramento (4%) Contra Costa (3%) San Francisco (3%) Other (28%)
4%
With over 8 percent of the registered voters in the state, San Diego County constitutes the third largest electorate in California. (See Figure 1). Although the county has long been considered a stronghold of conservative voters, changing demographics have put San Diego in play. These changes and the size of the electorate have made San Diego County a critical factor in statewide elections.
One indicator that San Diego County is in play is party affiliation. Unlike other counties with large electorates, voter affiliation with the two dominant parties—Democrats and Republicans—is even: 36 percent of voters are registered as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans. The unaffiliated number is also significant: nearly a quarter (24%) of county voters decline to state an affiliation.1 Figure 1: California Registered Voters by County1
Opinion research indicates that voters, regardless of party affiliation, who identify as “liberal” are more apt to support investments in our public infrastructure and investments in our future. Although liberal registered voters vastly outnumber conservative registered voters in California, they don’t participate in elections at the same rate. Today, 40 percent of “likely” voters (who vote at least 3 out of 4 times) self-identify as conservatives, while only 31 percent identify as liberal.2
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Moving likely voters or voters of only one particular party in San Diego will not generate the electorate needed to return California to its leadership position in such areas as education, human rights, or environmental protection. Social justice organizers must look beyond the traditional sources of voters and look specifically to infrequent voters to solidify a majority in the electorate that supports fair tax and fiscal policy reform.
Communities of Opportunity in San Diego The Equality Alliance has identified three communities of opportunity that could constitute the difference in electoral battles around tax and fiscal reform and other social justice issues: (1) communities of color, (2) lowincome communities, and (3) infrequent voters. Communities of Color: 11%
4%
The recently released 2010 census data indicates that the Latino and Asian population has increased significantly in the county over the last ten years: Latinos have increased from 27 to 32 percent of the population and Asians have increased from 9 to 11 percent. Simultaneously, African Americans have decreased slightly from 6 to 4 percent and Whites have decreased from 55 to 48 percent (See Figure 2).
White African American 48%
32%
Latino Asian
5%
Other
Figure 2: San Diego County Population by Ethnicity, 2010 Census
These demographic shifts mirror state shifts and have already impacted elections. While only constituting an estimated 35 percent of the electorate in the November 2010 election, African-American, Latino, and Asian voters made the difference in the gubernatorial and senate races, constituting the margin of victory for % of All 2006 Voters % of All 2010 Voters Governor Jerry Brown and Senator Barbara Boxer. 80
The impact of African Americans was particularly noteworthy. Though they are a diminishing percentage of the population, African American voters turn out at a higher rate than other voters of color and nearly doubled their vote share of all voters statewide from 5 to 9 percent between the 2006 and 2010 general election (See Figure 3).3 Given that the margin of victory or defeat is often less than 5 percent, African American voters remain significant in electoral terms.
66
62
60
40 20 22 20 5
9
6
4
0
Low-income Communities:
Whites
Af-American
Latino
Asian
Communities of color that are concentrated Figure 3: California Electorate by Ethnicity in 2006 and 2010 geographically are often situated in low-income communities. For example, in the City of San Diego, city council districts 3 (City Heights), 4 (Southeast San Diego), and 8 (Barrio Logan area and San Ysidro) are the most economically depressed and have the highest densities of communities of color. These communities also have the lowest voter count, as well as the lowest rate of voter turnout.4 They are also the areas with the greatest potential for voter engagement.
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Infrequent Voters: Infrequent voters (occasional and new voters) represent an untapped resource for social justice advocates. These voters constitute the largest portion of the county electorate (43%)5, but are normally not engaged by campaigns at any significant level and are left out of the electoral equation. Most campaigns choose to mobilize or swing likely voters to get “more bang for the buck.� Unfortunately, there are not enough likely voters who support, or can be moved to support, a social justice agenda at this time. Mobilizing infrequent voters, therefore, is critical.
Likely Voters
Infrequent Voters
Never Voters
18% 39%
43%
Over the last 8 years, social justice advocates have lost Figure 4: San Diego County Electorate by Vote Frequency, 2010 statewide ballot measure battles by an average of less than 5 percent in San Diego County. The margin of defeat was less than 73,000 votes countywide. Mobilizing 12 percent of infrequent voters in the county in support of social justice measures would close that gap and would signify a new day in San Diego electoral politics. It would also impact state elections, neutralize San Diego County as an anchor of support for a conservative agenda, and convert it to an anchor of support for a progressive social justice agenda. The mobilization of infrequent voters presents an excellent opportunity and affords the greatest chance at victory on a social justice reform agenda. The Equality Alliance, for example, has focused its voter engagement work in San Diego city council districts 3 and 4, which are two of the most economically depressed areas of the city with high densities of voters of color and infrequent voters. These voters combined with the voters in council district 8 account for approximately 15 percent (91,000 voters) of San Diego’s electorate. Their numbers are large enough to make these communities relevant in any election, compelling politicians to address the issues and concerns of the residents.
Peer-to-Peer Civic Engagement is Key The shifting demographics and a friendlier electorate are not enough to end fiscal gridlock and restore the California dream. To capitalize on the current momentum, voters must be engaged, educated and mobilized. Understanding how voting impacts their daily lives is one way to motivate them to go to the polls. The use of new voter engagement practices, such as values-based framing and voter education, in addition to technological advances (predictive dialing systems, voter information software, and robo-dialers) enable us to conduct targeted large-scale civic engagement. It also allows us to combine grassroots coalition building with strategic outreach, education, and voting. We can reach out to specific infrequent voters, provide concise information to them using framed messaging, and mobilize them to vote. Using peer-to-peer engagement (neighbor to neighbor outreach), we are able to reach communities disconnected from the political process. When we engage them regularly, we can produce more consistent voters who are educated on social justice issues and support them at the ballot box.
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35% 30%
31% 25%
26%
25% 20%
Statewide
19%
San Diego County
15%
Uncontacted in City Council Districts 3&4
10%
Contacted in City Council Districts 3&4
5% 0% % of Turnout Figure 5: Comparison of Voter Turnout in June 2010 Election
The model of repeated peer-to-peer civic engagement has proven effective. Over the last 18 months, the Equality Alliance has conducted four such engagement programs that have yielded significant results. In the June 2010 election, for example, infrequent voters that we contacted in San Diego city council districts 3 and 4 went to the polls at a higher rate than other voters in their districts, in the county, and in the state (See Figure 5).6 Their relatively higher turnout demonstrates the potential of infrequent voters as an untapped resource. Moving Forward Together Social justice advocates in the region have succeeded in working collaboratively to advance some short-term goals. The “No on Prop 23” campaign (opposing suspension of environmental protections) and “Yes on Prop 25” campaign (supporting a simple majority vote to pass the state budget) in the November 2010 election are good examples. However, collaborations in the midst of heated election battles do not necessarily create long-lasting relationships that build towards winning a larger victory and organizations often part ways soon after elections. For sustained long-term victory we must look to a new model of collaboration and voter engagement. Longterm change requires consistent mobilization in the communities that provide the best chance for victory. In order to take full advantage of changing demographics and a changing electorate, social justice advocates must join together and work strategically. Understanding that San Diego County is in play, we have a great opportunity to advance social justice reforms if we work together. The Equality Alliance seeks regional partners to form the next level of relationships: longterm collaborations formed by organizations that agree on strategy, distribute the work, and share resources and tools to pursue the long-term goal of reviving the California Dream. While there are many social justice battles to be fought, the battle that touches all issues is that of tax and fiscal reform. This one issue impacts all communities and the resources needed to sustain long-term health, growth and development in our diverse communities. Working together, we can build an electoral majority that supports reform and restores our state, and our communities, to a healthy and vibrant condition. 1
California Secretary of State, Voter Registration Statistics for February 2011. Public Policy Institute of California, “Just the Facts: California’s Likely Voters,” September 2010, www.ppic.org. 3 California Calls, “Who Voted,” http://calliance.org/?p=273. 4 San Diego County Registrar of Voters, “Elections in Year 2010,” http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/voters/Eng/E2010.shtml. 5 Political Data Information Systems, Voter Analysis for 2010. 6 California Calls and Equality Alliance voter analysis for June 2010 Primary. 2
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