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27 July 2009
Lending Solutions
Housing market tracking sideways - growing north/south divide Full housing market recovery some years away yet
Housing Intelligence Market Sectors
By Richard Donnell, Director Research, Hometrack Commentary & Analysis House Price Survey
Summary
Publications
Monthly price change (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Articles
12 month price change (%)
-9.6
-8.7
-7.7
% change in new buyers registering with agents
6.0
4.6
2.8
% change in volume of property listings
-0.2
0.8
0.5
% change in sales agreed
9.4
6.4
6.6
Average time on the market (weeks)
9.9
9.4
9.0
% of the asking price being achieved
90.3
91.0
91.5
13
3
3
Market Snapshot Online Property Valuation About Us
% postcode districts with price decrease over month
May-09
Jun-09 Jul-09
For the third consecutive month house prices remain unchanged ... House prices remained static in July - the third consecutive month in a row. A market tracking sideways and a north/south split are all in evidence as we head towards the summer months. But a broad base recovery is still some years away. North/south split emerging ... Agents and surveyors reported that house prices increased across 10% of postcodes in July - the vast majority in southern England where a growing scarcity of housing is putting upward pressure on prices. This contrasts with the north of the country where agents are reporting more 'difficult' conditions characterised by an increase in housing stock but weak demand. The north/south differential is highlighted in the time taken to sell which in southern regions of England is now below 9 weeks and as low as 5.8 in London. The story however is quite a different one in the midlands and north where the figure is still over 10 weeks - and in Wales as high as 11.8 weeks. The proportion of asking price being achieved continues to narrow ... The latest Hometrack survey which is based on over 6,000 responses from surveyors and agents working across the country, shows that while there has been no growth in headline prices over the last 3 months, the proportion of asking price being achieved continues to narrow. This currently stands at 91.5% compared to 88.3% in January 2009. But the market remains in a fragile state... While there maybe an improvement in market activity - it should be remembered that this activity is off a very low base and the market remains in a fragile state. Any increase in the supply of homes for sale could easily undermine the firming in pricing we have seen over the last few months. A broad based recovery needs to be founded on both an improving economic outlook and availability of mortgage finance - both of which remain uncertain. This month's survey was based upon 6,159 responses from 1,796 agents and surveyors across all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales.
"The proportion of the asking price achieved rose to 91.5% in July from a recent
low of 88.3%. As long as this measure remains below 93% prices are likely to remain static or under downward pressure."
chart 1: % asking price being achieved
"The time on the market has fallen for the last six months. For those properties that are selling the current average time on the market is 9 weeks, down from a recent high of 12.3 weeks seen in January 2009."
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chart 2: Time on the market (weeks)
chart 3: % of postcodes registering price falls
"Agents have spent the last 2 years re-pricing the market to a level where sales are starting to occur once again albeit off a very low base. With sales volumes up for the last few months and a growing scarcity of housing in some markets so the downward pressure on pricing has abated for now."
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