ECONOMICS RESEARCH
23 June 2009
EURO AREA HOUSING MARKET A collapse in confidence This is an extract from the AAA Handbook 2009, published on 10 June. Euro area house prices look likely to decline by around 5% this year and again in 2010. Even though financing costs look to be in theory at relatively attractive levels, banks have been tightening credit. More importantly, with the worst recession in Europe’s post-war history, the combination of macroeconomic fundamentals is extremely adverse and unlikely, in our view, to improve sufficiently in the quarters immediately ahead to arrest the collapse in confidence that now afflicts the euro area housing markets. There is still evidence of excess construction investment in relation to GDP: the process of construction re-balancing is likely to continue for several quarters, particularly in countries like Spain and Ireland, where it is leading to surging unemployment, and proving to be a depressing influence on real GDP expansion. From the perspective of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, the unprecedented weakness in the euro area housing market argues in favour of monetary policy being kept in a highly accommodative stance for a very sustained period of time, as the adjustment process continues to play out.
Figure 1: Historical house prices/income ratios*
25
25 Japan
% y/y
20
20
15 UK
15
10 5
euro area 10
0 US
5 Belgium
France
-5 -10
0 1920
Figure 2: Euro area house prices lag US
-15 1940
1960
1980
2000
Note: * “income” is defined as per capita personal disposable income.. Source: Barclays Capital using national sources. Latest reading: Q1 09 est.
euro area US (existing home sales average selling price) 76 80
84 88 92 96
00 04 08
Source: Thomson Datastream, Barclays Capital
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 12
Julian Callow +44 (0) 20 7773 1369 julian.callow@barcap.com www.barcap.com
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Summary The euro area housing market and construction sector have been dealt particularly severe shocks during the past 12 months. The financial turmoil has led to a sharp tightening in credit standards, while housing demand has slumped on account of surging unemployment and worsening income prospects. For example, nominal GDP is poised to shrink around 3% this year (it fell 3.2% y/y in Q1) – the first time in post-war history that it has fallen. Moreover, even though the European Central Bank has slashed interest rates, thereby bringing down mortgage rates (particularly for southern Europe), European households have learnt that real estate prices can indeed decline. What’s more, for most markets, the credit boom and speculation had led to house prices moving to record highs in relation to incomes (in this section, for reasons of consistency, we use per capita personal disposable income (PDI) as the benchmark for income valuations). Figure 1 provides some historical perspective on typical house prices (using our BarCap historical database) in relation to per capita disposable income. As can be seen, this kind of PE analysis suggests that house price/income ratios, as with other asset prices, can re-rate and de-rate over very long periods, depending upon key variables such as unemployment, interest rates, credit availability, etc. Meanwhile, we can observe (Figure 2) that euro area house prices tend to lag those in the US (which have fallen sharply). As a consequence of both personal economic developments, financial conditions and expectations, households’ desire to purchase housing has collapsed to record lows (Figure 3). Together with a substantial excess of supply in some markets (notably Spain and Ireland), house prices have begun to move into significantly negative territory.
Figure 3: Consumer sentiment subcomponent – home purchase intention in next 12mths -60 Euro area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
UK
-65 -70 -75 -80 -85 -90 -95 -100 1990
94
98
02
06
2010
Source: Thomson Datasream, Barclays Capital, using European Commission household survey diffusion balances
Our expectation (Figure 4) is that house prices in the euro area will decline around 5% both in 2009 and in 2010. Partly this reflects our view that the process of economic improvement will be slow. Even though our current forecasts envisage economic stabilisation during H2 and some modest recovery in GDP during H1 10, this seems unlikely to be enough to prevent unemployment from increasing substantially during the next two years. While the ECB is likely to maintain especially accommodative financing conditions, we do appear to be witnessing a significant adjustment phase in which for those markets that have had relatively elevated prices in relation to incomes (and especially those plagued by excess supply – Figure 5), there is likely to be large downwards pressure on prices. In particular, this implies strong further declines to be felt in Spanish, Irish and Dutch housing. 24 June 2009
2
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Figure 4: Key house price changes % change y/y
Aust.
Belg.
Fin.
Fra.
Germ.
2004
-2.7
12.0
5.7
15.3
-0.8
2005
5.9
16.7
6.2
15.2
-0.1
2006
4.0
11.1
8.3
12.0
0.5
2007
4.1
9.2
6.0
6.6
0.7
Grec.
Eire
Italy
2.5
11.6
10.4
10.9
11.8
7.7
12.2
13.4
5.1
4.6
1.0
6.1
NL
Port.
Spa.
Euro
UK*
3.0
3.9
17.4
8.8
11.2
4.1
2.9
13.9
9.0
6.5
5.1
0.3
10.4
7.4
4.7
3.6
0.5
5.8
4.9
10.9
2008
1.3
5.8
1.2
1.2
0.5
2.6
-8.8
4.5
-0.3
-4.3
0.7
1.5
-1.1
2009 E
3.0
-2.3
-8.9
-7.9
-1.7
1.5
-10.1
0.7
-13.7
-4.1
-10.5
-5.2
-11.4
2010 F
-3.1
-3.8
-2.3
-4.4
-3.0
1.0
-6.4
-4.7
-8.0
-3.9
-9.1
-4.9
-0.3
Memo: price (â‚Źk Q4 07)
169
195
138
207
169
135
325
194
255
96
181
185
200
Note: * in ÂŁ. Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (see Appendix for further details)
Figure 5: Comparing housing starts with the change in household units and in the population thousands
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
Housing starts
317
310
303
303
323
363
410
434
437
368
310
Households, change (3y m.a.)
205
131
222
314
314
314
314
326
338
350
330
Imbalance (starts less households)
112
178
81
-11
9
50
97
109
99
18
-20 196
France
Germany Housing completions
473
423
326
290
268
278
242
249
211
202
78
202
281
541
517
470
153
274
200
181
300
395
221
45
-252
-249
-192
90
-25
11
21
-104
Households, chge (3y m.a.) Imbalance Ireland Housing completions
47
50
53
58
69
78
78
89
74
49
30
Households, chge (3y m.a.)
22
32
31
22
44
39
51
29
29
29
25
Imbalance
25
19
22
37
26
38
27
60
45
20
5
Italy Housing starts
162
178
170
171
174
179
188
196
204
200
180
Households, chge (3y m.a.)
118
107
169
259
368
448
393
358
330
317
287
44
71
0
-88
-194
-269
-205
-162
-126
-117
-107
Imbalance Netherlands Housing completions
79
71
73
67
60
65
67
72
80
79
75
Households, chge (3y m.a.)
54
60
78
63
59
53
52
50
47
50
40
Imbalance
25
10
-5
4
1
12
15
22
33
29
35
Housing starts
511
534
300
543
622
691
716
760
616
360
300
Households, chge (3r m.a.)
236
268
307
342
372
406
440
483
477
434
404
Imbalance
275
266
-7
202
250
285
276
277
139
-74
-104
Housing starts/completions
1588
1565
1225
1432
1516
1654
1701
1801
1622
1259
1091
Households, chge (3yr m.a.)
713
800
1088
1540
1673
1731
1402
1520
1421
1362
1386
Imbalance
875
765
137
-108
-157
-77
299
281
201
-103
-295
Spain
Above euro area countries
UK Housing starts
179
178
180
181
194
213
212
230
217
168
151
61
155
222
249
255
210
222
239
5055
135
220
118
23
-42
-68
-61
3
-10
-9
-4839
33
-69
Households, chge (3y m.a.) Imbalance US Housing starts
1647
1573
1601
1710
1854
1950
2073
1812
1342
900
500
Households, chge (3y m.a.)
1310
1175
1150
1119
1011
984
1105
1342
1215
1018
968
337
398
451
591
843
966
968
470
127
-118
-468
Imbalance
Source: Barclays Capital based on national sources
24 June 2009
3
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Figure 6: The long-term perspective – French house prices 50
Figure 7: House prices by country 50
% y/y
% y/y
40
40
30
30
20 20
10 10
0
0
Spain France Germany
-10 Q1 09
-10
-20
37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07
76
79
82
85
88
Ireland UK 91
94
97
00
03
06
09
Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (annual before 1997)
Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (please see Appendix)
Figure 8: Euro area unemployment rate moves up …
Figure 9: ... particularly in Spain and Ireland
20
20
Poland
Spain
Baltics 15
15
Greece France
10 US 5
Ireland
10
Euro area
Germany
UK 5
Sweden
Italy
Portugal
Japan 0
0 92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Barclays Capital, using Eurostat data from Thomson Datastream
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Barclays Capital, using Eurostat data from Thomson Datastream
Figure 6 shows what unprecedented times we are in. Using a series for French house prices back to 1937, we see that the Q1 09 decline (-6.6% on the INSEE measure) is paving the way for a record annual drop for French house prices this year. This shows the consequences of the collapse in confidence, for the French market, which unlike those of Spain and Ireland, has not seen the degree of excess housing construction – yet still prices have slumped (Figure 5 and Figure 7). Note that it is in countries that have seen particularly strong construction booms, such as Spain, Ireland and the Baltics, where the surge in unemployment rates is particularly high (Figure 8 and Figure 9). This chiefly reflects a combination of the shedding of construction labour plus the knock-on consequences on domestic demand from real estate retrenchment To evaluate the degree of excess construction investment, we can also look at the ratio of construction investment spending to nominal GDP (Figure 9 and Figure 10). We have long argued that there is a fundamental rebalancing going on in the construction sector, and we are monitoring these ratios closely. Currently the data suggest that the process of construction rebalancing might be only around halfway through for Ireland and Spain.
24 June 2009
4
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Figure 10: Construction investment (% nominal GDP) forecast
Ireland Spain Italy
22 E12 US
France
17
forecast
22
UK 17
Germany
12
Japan
12
7 80
84
88
92
96
2000
04
08
7 80
84
88
92
96
2000
04
08
Source: National data sources, Thomson Datastream, Barclays Capital
Figure 11: Housing permits by country (% 6m/6m saar)
Figure 12: Euro area permits vs. investment 40
40
60
Euro area residential investment 2Q/2Q SAAR (LHS) Housing permits (BarCap aggregate) 2Q/2Q SAAR (RHS)
30
40
30
20
20
0
10
10
0
0
-20
-60 -80
BarCap aggregate
Germany (orders)
France
Spain
forecast
-10
-40
-20
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
-10 -20 -30
-30 94
92
20
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
08
Source:: Barclays Capital using national sources, Thomason Datastream
Source: Barclays Capital
In conclusion, we consider that it is unlikely to be until 2011 that there could be a meaningful recovery in euro area house prices. The full extent of the deterioration should be offset by the fact that Germany already had a housing boom in the early 1990s and since then German house prices have been virtually flat, which in turn has lowered the German PE ratio and hence the euro area ratio (also it means that Germany has not had the excess ratio of construction investment to GDP present in various other euro area countries). One important message from previous episodes of excess asset prices is that the de-rating process can often lead to an overshoot on the downside. Arguably this will not happen in the near future, because the ECB is maintaining such an accommodative monetary stance. Nonetheless, close attention to the historical behaviour of the PE ratio for housing in Germany and Japan since the early 1990s would suggest that identifying the trough in housing cycles can be a precarious business, particularly if the overall economic environment is weak on account of ongoing adjustment in the construction sector.
24 June 2009
5
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Figure 13: ECB senior loan officer survey – questions on housing demand Factors affecting household loan demand – housing market prospects % diffusion balance
Credit standards in the past 3 months for housing loans % diffusion balance
60
60 = tighter
40
40 20
20
0
0
-20 -40
Euro Germany Euro ex Germany*
-20 -40
Euro
-60
Germany -80
-60 Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Euro ex Germany*
-100 Jan 03
Jan 09
Note: * Calculated by Barclays Capital from the ECB and Bundesbank data. Source: ECB, Bundesbank
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Latest survey: April, 2009
Figure 14: Typical existing dwelling prices
350
euro k
400
forecast
euro k
Ireland
forecast
400
350
300
300
250
NL
250
UK
200
200
FR Germany
150
150 Italy
100
100
Spain
50
0
0 88
92
96
00
04
FN Portugal
50
84
Belg.
Austria
08
Greece 84
88
92
96
00
04
08
Source: Barclays Capital based on various national sources (see Appendix)
Figure 15: Key financing characteristics of euro area housing markets Austria
Belgium
Finland France
Prevailing type of interest rate
Variable
Fixed (>10yrs)
Variable
% of variable rate loans in total new loans (2007)
61
10
96
Index for adjusting variable rate
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Fixed Fixed (>10yrs) (5~10yrs)
Variable
Variable
Variable
28
67
47
15
3mth T bills & 12mth 12mth Euribor bond yields Euribor Euribor
15
NL
Port.
Spain
Fixed Variable Variable (5~10yrs) 18
99
91
Long-term ECB refi rate ECB refi rate 3mth Long-term 6mth 12mth market & 3mth & 3mth Euribor market rates Euribor Euribor rates Euribor Euribor
Typical maturity (yrs)
30
20
20~25
19
25~30
15~20
31~35
22
30
30~40
30
% of total mortgage market (Dec 08)
2.0
2.5
1.9
19.8
27.5
1.9
3.3
7.5
11.0
3.0
18.7
Source: European Central Bank, Barclays Capital
24 June 2009
6
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios The database we are using is based on many national sources. Where possible we use mix-adjusted prices for existing dwellings. Our database uses quarterly data, other than for Germany (annual), Austria and Italy (semi-annual) – these are interpolated. We have used information from the following sources: OeNB, Bank of Greece, Bank of Spain, Bulwien AG, Bundesbank, Confidencial Imobiliario, DNB, Eurostat, INSEE, The Irish Environment Department, Irish Permanent, NVM, Nomisma, OFHEO, Scenari Immobiliari, Statistics Belgium, Statistics Finland, UK Communities and Local Government ministry. The series for the euro area is created by using indices of the subcomponents and 2001 GDP weights. Data for per capita disposable income are from national statistics and the OECD; data for representative mortgages rates are from the European Mortgage Federation and other official national sources, including the ECB and national central banks. Data for actual house price levels are constructed from a variety of national sources and are therefore not strictly comparable.
16
Figure 17: Euro area 18
14
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
16
12 10
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
14
1.5 forecast
Figure 16: Euro area
8 6
12
4
10
1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5
2 8
0 -2
House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %
-4 -6
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 18: US
0.3
6
0.1
4
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Figure 19: US
15
9.5
10
9.0
0.7
0.6
8.5
5
8.0
0
0.5
7.5
-5 House price growth, % y/y
7.0
-10
Per capita PDI, % y/y
6.5
-15
Typical mortgage rate, %
6.0 5.5
-20 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
0.4
0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
0.2
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital
24 June 2009
7
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 21: UK
Figure 20: UK
1.5
35
Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %
25
18 forecast
House price growth, % y/y
16 14
0.7
15 10
0.5
8
-5
6
0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS 0.1
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
-0.1
4
-15
1.1 0.9
12
5
1.3
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 23: Austria
Figure 22: Austria
1.5 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
16
25 20
Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y
14
15
Typical mortgage rate, %
12
10 5
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
forecast
House price growth, % y/y
30
18
0.7
10
0.5
8
0.3
6
0.1
4
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 24: Belgium House price growth, % y/y Per capita disposable income, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %
20
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Figure 25: Belgium 1.5 18 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS 16
15
14
10
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
forecast
-10
12
0
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
1.1 0.9
0.5
8
0.3
6
0.1
4
-5
1.3
0.7
10
5
1.1 0.9
0 -5
1.3
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital
24 June 2009
8
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 27: Finland
Figure 26: Finland House price growth, % y/y 50
1.5
Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y
18
Typical mortgage rate, %
16
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
40 14
30
1.3 forecast
60
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
1.1 0.9
20
12
10
10
0.5
0
8
0.3
6
0.1
-10
0.7
-20 4
-30 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 29: France House price growth, % y/y
1.5 18
Per capita personal PDI, % y/y
15
Typical mortgage rate, %
14
10
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
16 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
1.3 forecast
Figure 28: France 20
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
0.9
12
5
1.1
0.7
10
0.5
8
0.3
-5
6
0.1
-10
4
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 30: Germany
Figure 31: Germany
16
House price growth, % y/y
14
Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y
18
12
Typical mortgage rate, %
16
10
14
8
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
1.5
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
forecast
0
1.1 0.9
12
6
1.3
0.7
4
10
0.5
2
8
0.3
6
0.1
0 -2
4
-4 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital
24 June 2009
9
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 33: Greece
House price growth, % y/y Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y
25
Typical mortgage rate, %
20
1.5 18
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
16 14
15
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
12
10
5
forecast
Figure 32: Greece
97
99
01
03
05
07
1.1 0.9 0.7
10
0.5
8
0.3
6
0.1
4
0
1.3
-0.1 97
09
99
01
03
05
07
09
Figure 35: Ireland
Figure 34: Ireland
1.5 18
35
1.3
25
forecast
16 14 12
15
0.5
5 8
0.3
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI , % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %
6
0.1 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
4
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 37: Italy
Figure 36: Italy 35
18
30
House price growth, % y/y
25
Per capita PDI, % y/y
16
20
Typical mortgage rate, %
14
15
1.5
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
forecast
-15
0.9 0.7
10
-5
1.1
1.3 1.1 0.9
12
0.7
10 5
10
0.5
0
8
0.3
6
0.1
-5 -10
4
-15 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital
24 June 2009
10
Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 39: The Netherlands
Figure 38: The Netherlands 25
18
20
1.5
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
1.3
16
15
14
10 12
1.1 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
0.9 0.7
5 10
0.5 forecast
0 8
-5
House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %
-10
6
0.1 -0.1
4
-15
0.3
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Figure 41: Portugal
Figure 40: Portugal 24
House price growth, % y/y
20
Per capita PDI , % y/y
1.5 forecast
18 16
Typical mortgage rate, %
16
14
12
0.7
10
4
0.5
8
0
6
0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
-4 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
40 House price growth, % Y/Y
30
Per capita PDI, % y/y
25
0.1 -0.1
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Figure 43: Spain
Figure 42: Spain
35
4
Typical mortgage rate, %
20
house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS
1.5
New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS
1.3
18 16
forecast
88
1.1 0.9
12
8
1.3
14
1.1 0.9
12
0.7
15 10
0.5
5
8
0.3
0
6
0.1
10
-5
-0.1
4
-10 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital
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Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS RESEARCH ANALYSTS Barclays Capital 5 The North Colonnade London E14 4BB Julian Callow Chief European Economist +44 (0)20 7773 1369 julian.callow@barcap.com
James Ashley Senior European Economist +44 (0)20 7773 4669 james.ashley@barcap.com
Laurence Boone Chief French Economist +33 1-44 58 3236 laurence.boone@barcap.com
Leef H Dierks German Economist +49 69-7161 1781 leef.dierks@barcap.com
Fabio Fois European Economist +44 (0)20 313 41136 fabio.fois@barcap.com
Kerri Maddock European Economist +44 (0)20 3134 2300 kerri.maddock@barcap.com
Thorsten Polleit Chief German Economist +49 69-7161 1757 thorsten.polleit@barcap.com
Nick Verdi Global Economist +44 (0)20 7773 2173 nick.verdi@barcap.com
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