7 minute read
Scotland
Political overview
Five years ago, the SNP lost its majority amid a significant upswing in support for the Conservatives. But this situation has been somewhat reversed in the wake of Brexit and COVID-19, with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the latter gaining plaudits from across the Scottish electorate.
Advertisement
The UK Government’s handling of COVID-19 has had the opposite effect, and antipathy towards Westminster is clear. Boris Johnson has also never had many fans north of the border, and neither has Brexit for that matter. It is this perfect storm of constitutional, personality and administrative conflict that has driven increased support for the SNP and independence over the past 12 months.
However, all is not rosy within the SNP. Just as its support, and support for independence, is reaching its crescendo, a crack has formed between Sturgeon and her former ally and former First Minister Alex Salmond. The accusations of assault against Salmond, the Government’s handling of said allegations, and the subsequent politicking have become a classic case of who-knew-what-when, and potentially pose a risk to Sturgeon’s position as First Minister.
All the while, as much as Labour and The Conservatives want to focus on health, education and other day-to-day domestic issues, they largely fall by the wayside. The SNP hope to frame this election as a proxy-independence vote, demonstrating wholesale frustration towards the British political system, and it is likely that is exactly what they’ll get.
The technicalities
Contingencies have been put in place in case ongoing COVID-19 restrictions make the hosting of an election infeasible. Legislation has been introduced that moves the dissolution of the Parliament to 5 May in case emergency legislation is needed. It also gives the Presiding Officer the power to postpone the election for up to six months, allows polls to take place over more than one day if necessary, and imposes an earlier deadline for postal votes.
Key personalities
Nicola Sturgeon MSP
SNP Leader
Anas Sarwar MSP
Labour Leader candidate (election ongoing)
Patrick Harvie MSP
Scottish Green Co-Leader
Douglas Ross MP
Conservative Leader
Monica Lennon MSP
Labour Leader candidate (election ongoing)
Willie Rennie MSP
Liberal Democrat Leader
The extent to which the SNP continues to dominate Scottish politics is striking. In power since 2007, the SNP is polling higher than ever in the mid-50s on constituency voting intention, with the Conservatives and Labourt languishing around the 20% and 15% mark respectively. This places the SNP on track to secure an absolute majority, unless internal ruptures start spilling over to the point of electoral impact.
Conservatives have somewhat de-toxified their brand in Scotland over recent years, but Douglas Ross MP has struggled to break through since becoming leader in August. Labour’s fall from grace in Scotland was once stark but has since become the new normal, leading to Richard Leonard’s recent resignation as leader. MSPs Anas Sarwar and Monica Lennon will face off over the coming weeks. Third-placed parties in the UK often struggle to break through (just ask the Liberal Democrats), but in Scotland, both the Conservatives and Labour appear to occupy this third-party position, with neither taking the fight to the SNP as an opposition of equals.
60 55 50
% v ote shar e
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021
SNP Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Other
Polling on independence
The pro-independence movement has been energised by independence polling throughout the past year. There have now been 19 consecutive polls recording majority support for independence with polling-guru Professor John Curtice stating that independence is now the “majority view” of the Scottish people.
The fact that current dominant political issues – namely Brexit and COVID-19 - have driven this increase also poses questions over the fragility of this majority. It is unclear whether the polling uplift from the Scottish Government’s handling of the pandemic will be maintained afterwards. Further, now that the UK has left the EU, other domestic issues may come to the fore to dampen the Brexit boost.
55 50
% v ote shar e
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021
In late January 2021, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon significantly shifted her strategy on how to secure a second referendum. For several years, the First Minister has said that any second referendum was dependent on the consent of the UK Government. This position attracted the ire of many within the SNP, who believe that the current Conservative Government will not provide consent and that a ‘Plan B’ is needed. Indeed, there is little incentive for No.10 to do anything other than play the long game and delay any potential referendum for as long as possible, while it builds up its argument on the merits of the union. While this risks driving further support for independence, it will also allow the UK Government to bolster its presence and economic support, including through the newly announced Shared Prosperity Fund.
But because of this likely refusal, this ‘Plan B’ has been adopted. The SNP’s official position is now that the Scottish Parliament will vote for a referendum at the ‘end’ of the pandemic, without UK Government consent if it is not forthcoming.
The shift in strategy has been influenced by the First Minister seeing her grip over key decision-making bodies within the SNP weaken after advocates for a bolder approach to independence won 11 seats on the SNP National Executive Committee. It is also heavily influenced by the UK Government’s own vocal objections to any second referendum in recent months.
This new strategy has been pushed by many within the SNP including Joanna Cherry MP for several years. The basis of the strategy is that the UK Government would be forced to go to court to challenge the legality of an Act of the Scottish Parliament which permits a second referendum being held. There is a possibility that the Scottish Government could win this on a legal basis while the optics for the UK Government of going to court on the issue may further boost support for independence.
However, there are elements within the SNP that feel this ‘Plan B’ does not go far enough, with the commitment to hold it at an unknown time after the end of the pandemic and the possibility that the Courts could block it highlighting ‘flaws’ in the plan. International Trade Committee Chair Angus MacNeil MP has pushed for a more aggressive plan to treat the Scottish elections in May as a de facto vote for independence and use any majority the SNP win in the election as a mandate to directly negotiate with the UK Government Scotland’s departure from the UK.
Even amongst the Party’s leadership there are splits over how soon a second referendum should be held. While the First Minister has said that a referendum should be held in the “early part” of the next Scottish Parliament and after the end of the pandemic, Westminster leader Ian Blackford MP has called for the referendum to be held this year.
The inquiry
The Scottish Parliament’s inquiry into the Scottish Government Handling of Harassment Complaints has entered its final stage. Both Mr Salmond and the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon are due to give oral evidence to the Committee, leading to fears that it may distract from the SNP’s message heading into the elections.
However, it is the independent probe being conducted by former prosecutor James Hamilton QC that poses the largest threat to the First Minister’s leadership. The probe - which recently received written evidence from Mr Salmond alleging that the First Minister misled Parliament and made “simply untrue” claims – is exploring whether the First Minister breached the ministerial code when dealing with harassment claims relating to Mr Salmond. While the First Minister has “entirely” rejected these claims, if the prosecutor finds that the First Minister breached the code, she will be under intense pressure to resign.
Impact:
If the First Minister is forced to resign following the independent probe it will likely throw the independence movement into disarray, with no clear successor to the First Minister waiting in the wings. Given the private nature of the independent probe it is unclear what its final decision will be.
Impact of upcoming election
Despite this mounting focus on the First Minister’s future, many assume that - dependent on the outcome of the independent probe - she will lead the SNP for most of the next Parliament before she hands over to a successor.
The upcoming 2021 Scottish Elections will see a ‘changing of the guard’ in the SNP with 14 out of 61 sitting SNP MSPs not running for re-election. Among them are one-third of the First Minister’s top team including Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham, Constitution Secretary Michael Russell, Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, and Communities Secretary Aileen Campbell.
If the SNP win the election, the departure of high-profile SNP figures as well as new SNP MSPs likely owing their victories to the First Minister means she will likely maintain broad control of her parliamentary Party and with it the Scottish Parliament.
Impact:
Despite the internal rows over the pathway to independence the First Minister will likely maintain control over the direction of the independence movement if the SNP have a ‘big win’ – as predicted - in the upcoming election.
Get in touch...
Euan Ryan
Account Manager euan.ryan@cicero-group.com
