The View From Edinburgh

We are a little over three months away from the most important election that Scotland has ever had. Indeed, it is distinctly possible that this next term of the Scottish Parliament - the sixth since its opening in 1999 - will see another independence referendum and major constitutional change in the form of either substantially enhanced devolution, or of course independence.

There are obvious reasons for the SNP and pro-independence supporters to be cheerful. The Party sits at around 50% in most polls - a remarkable position by global democratic standards - and is likely to again break the proportional representation system by gaining a majority of seats in Holyrood.

If there is a referendum, the territory will be substantially different from 2014. The ABC1 social group, generally speaking, used to vote No. Now they are polling heavily in favour of Yes. Women, likewise. No cannot record a polling win in any age-group under 55. Some polls have under 25s breaking 90% for Yes.

The SNP may be a Party with more cracks and indiscipline than it has had in recent memory, but its fundamentals are so strong that the faultlines are likely to remain concealed for a while yet.

What of the opposition? The Tories’ support is falling again, leaving many wondering if its high-20s percentage vote share was a plateau, reached only because it was seen as the Party of unionism in the wake of 2014. A combination of Boris and Brexit has served them ill since their 2016 peak, and it would now be a surprise if they held their 31 Holyrood seats.

The same is true for Labour and their 24 seats, at risk from the legacy of the Corbyn/Leonard leadership team and their failure to create an attractive constitutional position.

What can the Unionists do to delay or deny the seemingly inevitable? Behind the scenes, there is some thinking beyond the public ‘no to indyref 2’ position.

Labour is creating a federalist position, which may well stand them in good stead in the medium-to-long term. The Tories are further behind in their acceptance of the need for change, but between the Scottish Tories, the Scotland Office and Downing Street’s Union Unit, there is a growing acceptance that the ostrich strategy is failing.

How will this manifest itself? Some want to continue to say ‘No’ in the hope that it will force a split in the SNP between the Sturgeon camp (who want a referendum devolved and authorised by Downing Street) and the Salmond camp (who will agitate for a more radical position). Others want to negotiate a (terrible) divorce settlement before a referendum, in the hope it will force more Scots to cross the No box. Others accept that a referendum will have to happen, and want to offer a positive vision of a New Union along the lines of the Starmer model.

They don’t have long to decide which direction to go in.

Edinburgh-based PR, political relations and campaigns consultancy Message Matters is Cicero/AMO’s partner agency in Scotland.

Andy Maciver - Director andy@messagematters.co.uk