FRANCE PUSHES TO TIGHTEN EUROPE'S BORDERS AMID TERRORIST ATTACKS

By: Thomas Abi-Hanna

Stratfor, A RANE Company

Proposals to strengthen the border controls of Europe’s passport-free Schengen area could make it harder for criminals and terrorists to enter the region, but would not eliminate the problems of homegrown terrorists and the free movement of criminals inside the area.

In the coming years, terrorism and migratory pressure will continue to create threats to the Schengen zone’s survival.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Nov. 5 that France will present proposals to improve controls of the external borders of the Schengen area in December, but did not provide any details. Macron’s comments are part of France’s reaction to the terror attacks in France and Austria last week, in which the attackers were free to move across European countries without controls.

• The Schengen area includes 26 European countries, most of which are also members of the European Union. The Schengen members have agreed to eliminate physical controls at their mutual borders and to improve controls of the area’s external borders.

• The agreement allows for member states to reintroduce border controls, but only during extraordinary circumstances such as a terror attack or a health crisis, and for a short period.

• One of the main security problems connected to the Schengen area is that it makes it relatively easy for criminals to move across European countries with little to no control.

• The man responsible for the Oct. 29 terror attack in Nice entered the Schengen area from Tunisia to Italy, and then moved to France to perform the attack.

• The man responsible for the Nov. 2 terror attack in Vienna traveled between Slovakia and Austria to acquire ammunition for the attack.

Greater cooperation in controlling the Schengen area’s external borders and increased intelligence sharing between the member states is more likely than the permanent reintroduction of border controls between the countries, which would have a negative impact on their economies.

Because of the lack of physical controls, the Schengen area reduces transportation costs, as border crossings of goods and people are faster and more efficient. As a result, countries that are heavily reliant on exports or depend on tight supply chains for their economies, such as Germany or the Netherlands, will resist any attempts to reintroduce border controls between Schengen states.

Countries that rely on tourism, such as Spain and Greece, are also likely to oppose the end of the Schengen area.

• In recent years, Schengen members have granted additional resources to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (also known as Frontex). However, the bloc still struggles to control people entering the Schengen area by sea and, to a lesser extent, by land.

• A fragmented intelligence network (which for the most part is still handled at the national level), as well as logistical and language barriers, undermine EU efforts to increase intelligence cooperation.

• Radicalized nationals performed many of the recent terror attacks in Europe. Reforming the Schengen area would not have a significant impact on this situation, though it could limit cross-border cooperation between terrorists.

• According to a report by the European Parliament, the suspension of the Schengen Agreement and reestablishment of permanent border controls would result in annual economic losses of between 5 billion and 18 billion euros ($6 billion and $21 billion). A significant escalation of cross-border terror attacks in Europe would increase political pressure on national governments to abolish, or at least suspend, the Schengen area. This could lead some countries to exit the agreement, or demand the expulsion of members that fail to protect their external borders. Demands to end or suspend the Schengen zone could also be the result of another massive influx of asylum seekers and economic migrants, similar to the migration crisis of 2015-2016.

Radicalized nationals performed many of the recent terror attacks in Europe.

• Nationalist political parties across Europe, such as France’s National Rally, have repeatedly called for their countries to exit the Schengen Agreement out of security concerns.

• During the peak of the migration crisis in 2016, Schengen members including Austria and Sweden said Greece should be expelled from the agreement unless it improved the protection of its external borders.

• Countries including France and Austria have also repeatedly criticized the Italian government for allowing (and sometimes encouraging) asylum seekers and economic migrants to leave Italy.

• Countries that are not members of the Schengen Agreement, including the United Kingdom and Ireland, are not interested in joining it.

• Countries including Bulgaria and Romania still aspire to join the Schengen Agreement, though concerns about the presence of organized crime and a weak rule of law are still delaying their accession.

Thomas Abi-Hanna is a global security analyst with Stratfor's Threat Lens, a best-in-class protective security product that enables clients to anticipate, identify, measure, and mitigate risk. In this role, he tracks trends related to terrorism, industrial espionage and criminal activity, specializing in transnational militant groups including al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Mr. Abi-Hanna received his master's degree in international affairs from the Bush School at Texas A&M University, with concentrations in intelligence and Middle Eastern studies. He speaks conversational Arabic and has studied in Lebanon.