GLOBAL SITUATION REPORT

Each issue our global geopolitical partner, Stratfor, provides an indepth analysis of global incidents via in-house experts, cutting edge technology and through a comprehensive globally sourced network. Here is your summary from the last 30 days.

ANALYSIS

Iran: Al Qaeda Deputy's Killing Could Reflect Israeli Fears of U.S.-Iran Rapprochement

Nov 16, 2020

The assassination of al Qaeda deputy leader Abu Mohammed al-Masri in Iran reflects an Israeli effort to undermine potential outreach by the administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to Tehran by highlighting Iran-al Qaeda ties, Haaretz reported Nov. 16, citing unnamed sources. The New York Times reported Nov. 13 that Israeli operatives assassinated al-Masri sometime in August 2020 in the streets of Tehran at U.S. behest. The United States, Iran, Israel and al Qaeda have all not acknowledged the killing.

Why It Matters: While such efforts might complicate outreach to Tehran by the Biden administration, they will not stop it. When Biden eventually takes office, his administration's Middle Eastern policies will likely create Israeli-U.S. friction.

Egypt: Government Employee Sets Himself on Fire in Cairo’s Tahrir Square

Nov 13, 2020

A government employee set himself on fire in Cairo’s Tahrir Square after shouting about government corruption and wanting to avoid arrest, the Egypt Independent reported Nov. 13.

Why It Matters: Although this is one isolated incident, such events still risk further galvanizing anti-government sentiment in Egypt. The growing number of Egyptians who are struggling to make ends meet is creating an environment ripe for unrest, and could prompt more citizens to defy strict COVID-19 restrictions on protests to publicly air their discontent, as some did in September.

Israel, Palestinian: More Israeli Settlements to be Built Near East Jerusalem

Nov 16, 2020

Clashes between protesters and police delayed the start of a conference in Bamako The Israel Land Authority (ILA) is moving ahead with a plan to build 1,257 homes in the sensitive area of Givat Hamatos near East Jerusalem, Reuters reported Nov. 15..

Why It Matters: Israel is rushing to approve settlements before U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January. Current U.S. President Donald Trump has given Israel full range to maintain its long-term strategy of expanding settlements in the West Bank to undermine a future Palestinian state. Biden, however, has indicated he’d be more skeptical of Israel’s regional behavior.

U.S..: White House Blocks Investment in Chinese Companies Supporting Mainland Military

Nov 13, 2020 U.S.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Nov. 12 barring Americans from holding direct or indirect shares in 31 Chinese companies that the Department of Defense says supply or support the modernization of China's military, intelligence and/or security services.

Why It Matters: The move, which has been in the works for months, aims to blunt China's military modernization and technological progress. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration is unlikely to overturn the order given the bipartisan consensus on countering China's rise.

Morocco: Rabat Deploys Troops to Western Sahara Border Zone

Nov 13, 2020

Morocco has launched a military operation at the southern border of Western Sahara to “deter” against recent attacks by the Algeria-backed Polisario Front and end the group’s weeks-long blockade on trade between Moroccan-controlled areas of the disputed region and neighboring Mauritania.

Why It Matters: Morocco’s response to Polisario provocations shows an effort to snuff out border unrest before it escalates. In the near term, the military operation will resume commercial and civil traffic through the town of Guerguerat near the Mauritanian-Moroccan border.

Lebanon, Israel: Countries Hold ‘Productive’ Round of Talks on Disputed Maritime Border

Nov 12, 2020

Lebanon and Israel held their third round of U.S.-mediated talks over their disputed maritime border in the Mediterranean Sea, which the United Nations described as “productive.”

Why It Matters: By opening the door to other demarcation options, Lebanon is showing a willingness to compromise with its long-time regional foe, Israel. This may bode well for drawing out new borderlines to resolve the ongoing dispute, which has kept both countries from exploring and developing the potentially gas-rich area.

Bahrain: Crown Prince Named Prime Minister Following Death of Sheikh Khalifa

Nov 11, 2020

Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa has named Crown Prince Salman Al Khalifa as prime minister following the death of the country’s longtime leader, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa.

Why It Matters: Sheikh Khalifa amassed considerable influence within Bahrain’s political system over the course of his nearly 50-year tenure as prime minister. The crown prince’s appointment is thus unlikely to trigger a change in the country’s economic or security policy.

Saudi Arabia: World War I Commemoration Attended by European Diplomats Bombed

Nov 11, 2020

An improvised explosive device injured at least two people Nov. 11 in an attack on a World War I commemoration organized by the French Embassy in Jeddah and attended by several European diplomats, AFP reported. No group has claimed credit for the attack, and the culprit has not been identified.

Why It Matters: Saudi authorities have cracked down on militant activity in recent years, and explosive attacks in Saudi Arabia are especially rare outside the border region with Yemen. The bombing comes after an Oct. 29 stabbing of a security guard at the French Consulate in Jeddah.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Countries Agree to Cease-Fire in Nagorno-Karabakh

Nov 10, 2020

Armenia has agreed to withdraw from several areas and freeze Azeri territorial gains in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a new Russia-brokered cease-fire agreement with Azerbaijan.

Why It Matters: The cease-fire agreement will end six weeks of fighting between Azeri and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan, however, won many of the concessions it has long sought in negotiations over the decades-old dispute. The deal has thus been received as a victory in Azerbaijan and as a capitulation in Armenia, which will leave the door open to new fighting in the future.

Iraq: Rare Islamic State Attack Outside Baghdad Kills

11 Nov 9, 2020

A coordinated attack by the Islamic State killed at least 11 people and wounded eight more Nov. 8 at a military post run by a local tribal militia in the Radwaniyah area of southwestern Baghdad near the international airport.

Why It Matters: The attack comes as the Islamic State continues to regroup in northern and western Iraq. While attacks in rural areas have remained common, attacks in and around Baghdad have been relatively rare.

FEATURED ASSESSMENT

Five Years In, Saudi Arabia Is Signalling It Wants Out of Yemen

Saudi Arabia’s window to exit the conflict in Yemen without jeopardizing all of its gains is quickly closing, as the United States transitions to a less Riyadh-friendly government, and as Houthi rebels seek deeper concessions on the ground.

Waning external support for the Yemen war, combined with economic pressures from low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, has increased Saudi Arabia's impetus to withdraw from Yemen, forcing Riyadh to accept the failure of its five-year military intervention. Riyadh’s ongoing operation in Yemen has failed to accomplish its primary goal of ousting the Houthi movement from the country’s capital, Sanaa, and restoring President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to power.

• Saudi Arabia’s heavy reliance on airstrikes and blockades in Yemen has come at the cost of civilian casualties.

• In April 2019, the U.S. Congress voted to end

military support for Riyadh’s intervention in Yemen, which Trump ultimately vetoed.

Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States will become more adversarial once U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January and increases Riyadh’s exposure to U.S. political pressure, deepening distrust between the two allies.

Compared with Trump, Biden is also far less likely to block Congressional attempts to end American support for the Saudi intervention in Yemen, which Biden has also vocally condemned. Riyadh may perceive such a decision as the beginning of a greater U.S. diplomatic pressure campaign to draw down its intervention in Yemen after years of the Trump administration’s strident support, pushing the kingdom to further diversify its ties away from Washington.

• Saudi Arabia and the United States’ defense ties and economic relationship are substantial. But a decline in the need for Saudi oil due to lower global energy prices and increased fracking operations in the United States has helped Washington consider a looser relationship with the kingdom.

• Saudi Arabia has been seeking new defense and economic partners to offset the loss of a close relationship with the United States, including increased defense ties with China and a potential warming relationship with Israel to gain access to Israeli technologies.

The longer the Houthis are able to force the Saudis to remain militarily engaged in Yemen, the more likely it is that U.S. pressure to end the war will force Riyadh to grant concessions. A potential U.S. designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization could also further complicate Riyadh’s ability to reach a political settlement with the rebel group, as the Houthis could demand the removal of the designation as a prerequisite for negotiations.

SNAPSHOTS

Scotland, UK

Dec 1, 2020

Disputes within Venezuela’s The issue of Scottish independence is re-emerging ahead of the country’s May 2021 parliamentary election. Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that if her Scottish National Party (SNP) wins the country’s parliamentary elections next year, it will push for an independence referendum.

Saudi Arabia

Nov 30, 2020

Saudi Arabia appears ready to soften its blockade against Qatar to improve its relationship with the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.

Ukraine

Nov 23, 2020

Ukraine is poised to get its nascent program of economic reforms back up and running in order to regain key financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At least $1.4 billion is immediately at stake, with $700 million scheduled in December if Ukraine’s program remains on track.

Turkey

Nov 9, 2020

A personnel shakeup among Turkey’s financial and economic leadership indicates growing political pressure on and within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to fix the country's flagging economy.

Europe

Nov 20, 2020

An ongoing dispute over a 1.8 trillion euros ($2.1 trillion) EU spending package could jeopardize the bloc’s economic recovery. Any delays in the disbursement of these funds would be particularly damaging for southern European countries.

Saudi Arabia, Israel

Nov 24, 2020

Full normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains unlikely in the near term, but defense and intelligence cooperation will continue to advance in the coming months.

EU-U.K.

Nov 16, 2020

The race is on for EU-U.K. trade negotiators to resolve their outlying disputes in order to avoid a disruptive no-deal British exit from the EU single market on Jan. 1. A limited trade agreement is probable, but London and Brussels must reach it by early December to ensure their legislatures can approve it in time.

Iraq

Nov 9, 2020

Intra-Kurdish clashes in northern Iraq could lead to additional attacks against nearby oil infrastructure, as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) retaliates against attempts by Iraqi and Turkish forces to reduce the group’s presence and activity in the resource-rich region.