GLOBAL SITUATION REPORT

ANALYSIS

Each issue our global geopolitical partner, Stratfor, provides an indepth analysis of global incidents via in-house experts, cutting edge technology and through a comprehensive globally sourced network. Here is your summary from the last 30 days.

North Korea: Seventh Missile Test Highlights Conventional Weapons Capabilities North Korea conducted its seventh missile test of 2022, launching a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that traveled around 800 kilometers before splashing down in the East Sea.

Why It Matters: This test tracks with North Korea's recent escalation of conventional weapons systems testing, but it also underscores a slight shift away from testing new missiles or missile capabilities and toward repeated testing of existing missiles. This change means North Korea is finding its niche with missile capabilities and interoperability and is likely to continue honing its current arsenal of conventional weapons.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow To Consider Recognizing Independence of Donbas Separatist Republics On Feb. 14, Russia’s parliament could examine the Communist Party's appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognize the Donbas separatist republics in Eastern Ukraine as independent countries.

Why It Matters: Under Russia’s interpretation of the Minsk agreements, the Donbas republics would be able to use their autonomy to block Ukraine from joining NATO. But Russia is unlikely to enact this proposal in the near term because it would force Moscow to abandon its strategy of using the Minsk agreements to exert influence over Kyiv. Instead, Moscow will retain the possibility of recognizing the republics as independent countries as a backup option to increase its negotiating power with the West and Kyiv, because the move could increase the threat of war with Ukraine.

Colombia: Attack Highlights Increased Political Violence During Election Year Unknown assailants ambushed a vehicle caravan carrying Arnulfo Gasca, the governor of Colombia's southwestern department of Caqueta, leaving two security guards dead and several others injured.

Why It Matters: Colombia's tense and prolonged election cycle is likely to spur increased political violence, as criminal groups are likely to favor politicians who take a softer stance toward anti-drug operations and are open to negotiations with regional criminal groups. While the violence is likely to target politicians in more rural areas where armed groups have more territorial control, conflict could also reach urban areas as armed groups continue to increase their presence in cities like Cali and Bogota.

Italy

Sergio Mattarella’s reelection as Italy’s president has avoided a political crisis but the government will likely weaken as the 2023 general election approaches, which will reignite fears about Italy’s ability to grow out of its debt.

Israel

More cracks emerge in Israel’s fragile coalition government as Defense Minister Benny Gantz met with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and announced measures to boost the economy in the West Bank.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s likely expansion of the National Security Law will accelerate its transition to de facto mainland Chinese rule and presents security risks to businesses operating in the territory.

Iran

If Iran can reach a deal with JCPOA delegates by the end of February, Iran could start restoring about 1.3 million barrels of oil to the market in Q2.

FEATURED ASSESSMENT

What’s at Stake in Kenya’s 2022 Presidential Election

Kenya is barreling toward a highly contentious and likely tumultuous presidential election that could alter the future of the country’s political system.

Kenya will hold general elections on Aug. 9, where voters will elect the president, members of the National Assembly and Senate, and various county positions. But the presidential ballot, in particular, is shaping up to be a highly contested race

In Kenya, where 42% of the population is under 25 years old, the youth vote will also be key in deciphering the

outcome of the Aug. 9 presidential race. The candidate who receives the majority of support from Kenyans between 18-24 years old will have a distinct advantage due to the sheer size of this voting bloc.

The outcome of the presidential race will risk spurring unrest among non-ruling ethnic groups in Kenya, especially if there are widespread allegations of fraud.

Kenya’s three most recent presidential elections all yielded disputed victories that spurred widespread unrest, looting, property destruction and extreme business disruptions. The post-election turmoil following former President Mwai Kibaki’s contested victory in 2007 was particularly devastating, killing thousands of Kenyans.

Kenyan ethnic groups that supported candidates who ended up winning the presidency have historically benefitted the most from resource allocation in sectors like education, healthcare, infrastructure and development.

The new constitution Kenya ratified in 2010 was partially designed to address resource inequalities between ethnic groups by granting more authority to county governments. However, the unequal allocation of resources on a national scale remains a problem.

Mali

Mali’s alienation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will likely deepen its reliance on Russia, which will further reduce the likelihood of imminent democratic elections.

Russia

There is little evidence to suggest that Russian ransomware gang REvil's activity has declined since Russia announced that it had dismantled the group.

Afghanistan

European diplomats have stated that humanitarian aid to Afghanistan would depend on the Taliban's human rights record, particularly women and girls' right to education.

Lebanon

Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri will boycott the May 15 elections giving proHezbollah figures an opportunity to enter Lebanon’s parliament, which could spark violence.

Peru: Judiciary Forbids Spanish Oil Executives From Leaving Country

After Oil Spill Peru’s judiciary forbade four senior executives of Spanish oil and gas company Repsol from leaving the country for 18 months following a 10,000-barrel oil spill at the company's Pampilla refinery on Jan. 15, which was classified as the worst ecological disaster in Peru in recent times.

Why It Matters: The oil spill will likely fuel domestic support for the leftist Peruvian government to pursue punitive actions, including charging the executives for criminal negligence and sanctioning and/or expropriating the Pampilla refinery.

UAE, Israel, Yemen: Houthi Missile Attack Fails to Derail Israeli President's Visit The United Arab Emirates said its air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels as Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited the country.

Why It Matters: The United States condemned the missile strike, pushing Washington closer to the United Arab Emirates' position on Yemen, which involves military intervention on behalf of the Yemeni government. The attack also highlights the ongoing danger to certain world leaders visiting the United Arab Emirates.

China, Myanmar: Beijing Seeks to Ease Border Issues as Olympics Approaches The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a Myanmar militant group, has agreed to cease military operations near the Chinese border during the Beijing Olympics unless Myanmar's military junta attacks.

Why It Matters: Such events during the Olympics could provoke China to respond sternly at a time of increased sensitivity to even minor reputational slights, as the event is intended to showcase China’s prestige, wealth and status as a world power.

Rwanda, Uganda: Border Reopening Signals Thawing Relations Rwanda announced that its main border with Uganda, which has remained closed since 2019, will reopen on Jan. 31. Why It Matters: The border opening bodes well for travel and trade between the two East African countries, and both economies will benefit from this renewed activity. Even so, Rwanda and Uganda have a long history of tensions, so their improved relations remain fragile.

Mali: Denmark to Withdraw Troops From 'Untenable' Situation Denmark will start withdrawing its troops from Mali in response to the Malian junta's claim earlier this week that Denmark does not have permission to be in the country.

Why It Matters: The Malian junta's mounting resistance to French and European intervention makes the future of counterterrorism missions in the Sahel uncertain. The recent coup in Burkina Faso compounds this uncertainty, as French and European forces routinely carry out missions in the north of the country.